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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #2061
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    Reference Russian non linear warfare expansionism into the Artic----

    This has been building + obvious for years. Obama WH has done almost nothing despite NATO allies (+ DoD) screaming. https://twitter.com/CSIS/status/639099973951320064

    One more in the long line of failures within the Obama foreign policy which is basically built on wanting a great legacy for himself nothing more nothing less.

  2. #2062
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    Ceasefire still holding as of now--an increasing number of Russian troop and equipment movement reports are drifting in--appears to be fueling/resupply ops and troop rotations.

    Will continue to monitor lightly social media over the next hour or two but if nothing pops up--- will be signing off early today.

    General overall posting is slowing way down--this is the break the UAF and Ukrainian civilians really needed to get some normalcy back in their lives and to patch up their residences as winter is coming--the autumn nights are trending temp wise ever downward and winter might in fact be early this year.

  3. #2063
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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...64b_story.html

    On the frontlines in Ukraine, a technological gap

    By Thomas Gibbons-Neff August 31 


    In June, Ukrainian army Lt. Sasha Bak finally got his hands on a drone.

    He had been fighting in eastern Ukraine since March, and it was the first time he was able to get real-time imagery of the Russian-backed separatists and their trenches a little more than a half-mile away.

    The aircraft? A small quadcopter more common in toy stores than combat zones, with a GoPro camera strapped to its underside. The drone flew one mission before its owner, a foreign volunteer, left with it.

    Bak’s shortage of drones is just one piece of the many technological shortcomings he faces. His unit — the 7th Company of the 93rd Brigade — talks primarily on unsecure radios or field telephones left over from the Cold War that are frequently disabled when artillery rounds sever the wires that connect them. With no secure way to transmit data to other units, important messages such as company rosters and battlefield reports are delivered by hand.

    The Russian-backed separatists in the trenches opposite Bak’s are much better equipped. Not only do they have numerous drones of their own, but the separatists — with significant assistance from Russia — have more-sophisticated communications and an ability to jam Ukrainian radios.

    They have also knocked out Ukrainian radio and television towers and have repurposed them to broadcast their own programming — a key element in a parallel propaganda war.

    This disparity in communications and surveillance technology has added to an already daunting task for beleaguered Ukrainian units trying to hold their lines. The imbalance persists despite pledges from the international community, including $220 million in aid from the United States, to train and equip Ukrainian forces.

    “The Ukrainians have very bad communications and very bad command and control,” said John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. “Russia has great advantages in drones and electronic warfare . . . and Ukraine has a limited capacity.”

    The separatists fly drones constantly. Bak said he has seen ones the size of U.S. Predators while others, he maintains, are flown overhead simply to draw Ukrainian fire and reveal their positions.

    Eduard Basurin, a deputy defense minister and military spokesman for the separatists in the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, said he would not comment on the use of drones by his forces. He did say, however, that the rebels are able to jam Ukrainian drones. “We have a possibility to stop them from flying,” he said. “What will you do when the enemy breaks into your house?”


    Laura Seal, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said in an e-mail that the United States is in the process of supplying 3,000 radios with various levels of encryption to Ukrainian forces as part of the nonlethal military assistance the Pentagon started sending last year. The United States has also sent counter-
    artillery radar that has helped Ukrainian troops respond more accurately to separatist shelling.

    “This assistance is tailored to fill Ukraine’s capability gaps, as identified by Ukraine,” Seal said.

    Bak’s 7th Company has yet to see an American radio, but the threat posed by an enemy that can disrupt and monitor communications hasn’t been lost on the men holding the line. The troops have said that if a major offensive happened, the Russians would first destroy their ability to communicate.

    The separatists’ tactics have piqued the interest of defense officials in Washington who hope they can glean intelligence about Russia’s capabilities.

    “We’re learning a lot from them,” said a senior defense official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media. “What we’re learning from Russia’s electronic warfare sets up our approach to their techniques and doctrines.”

    Yet, Russia’s warfare extends off the battlefield as well. In an effort to control the flow of information around the front lines, Ukrainian television channels — except music and sports programming — have been blocked and replaced with Russian and separatist counterparts.

    Almost immediately after hostilities began, the separatists took over a number of radio and television towers in parts of eastern Ukraine, according to Tetiana Popova, Ukraine’s deputy minister of information,

    “The towers in this region have either been destroyed or captured” by the separatists, Popova said in an interview in Kiev, pointing to a cluster of concentric red circles on a map of eastern Ukraine. “Of the ones they have captured, we currently don’t have towers tall enough or powerful enough to counter them.”

    Popova is attempting to procure new towers to help push Ukrainian channels back into the east.

    For now, however, the lack of Ukrainian coverage means that both civilians and troops on or near the front get their news from separatist-controlled territory.

    Although the programming is mostly Western movies and Russian sitcoms, there is a diet of news and battle reports. They are greeted with jeers and laughter from the Ukrainian troops.

    “It’s propaganda,” Bak said. “But we watch it anyway.”

    Yet for Ukrainian officials, Russia’s ownership of the airwaves is no laughing matter.

    “This information front is no less important than the military front,” Valeriy Chaly, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, said in an interview. “This aggression not only threatens an offensive against our troops but destroys Ukraine from the inside.”
    Obama is sitting on an approved Congressional amount of 300M USDs tucked into the Defense Spending Bill that could close this gap.

    BUT he is afraid Putin will escalate the fighting BUT he has four times and the US has sent not a single defensive weapon to the Ukraine.

    It just takes Presidential leadership which there has been none.

  4. #2064
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...64b_story.html

    On the frontlines in Ukraine, a technological gap

    By Thomas Gibbons-Neff August 31 


    In June, Ukrainian army Lt. Sasha Bak finally got his hands on a drone.



    Obama is sitting on an approved Congressional amount of 300M USDs tucked into the Defense Spending Bill that could close this gap.

    BUT he is afraid Putin will escalate the fighting BUT he has four times and the US has sent not a single defensive weapon to the Ukraine.

    It just takes Presidential leadership which there has been none.
    AND this is the direct result of that poor leadership and the lack of supplying defensive weapons ie drones, night vision and counter battery radars.

    When one sees the Ukrainian loses just for the period August 2015 and the sheer number of Russian attacks--it is hard not to state the Russians were in fact slow stepping ie masking their general offensive.

    IT is also pathetic that Obama, Hollande and Merkel during the same timeframe uttered not a single condemnation against Putin and the Russian military.

    Actually even the NATO SACEUR was extremely quiet--wonder why--he was shut down just like every US General has been that stated Russian is an existential threat to the US.

    2920 cease-fire violations. Ukrainian Army lost 45 KIA and 225 WIA in August 2015. See report http://lugansk-news.com/2920-cease-f...n-august-2015/ … pic.twitter.com/WXXg41nRsq

  5. #2065
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    Russians are itching to break their owned declared ceasefire—they have started a nickel and diming slow step masking to break it again.

    Donetsk area, militants fired on ATO positions south of Avdiivka with small arms and RPGS - ATO press center

    In addition to the ambush near Shchastya this morning, militants also fired on Krymske (small arms) and Novotoshkivske (120-mm mortars)

    Today in Donbas, situation slightly deteriorated in the Luhansk region - ATO press center
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...86&__tn__=%2As

    Ukraine conflict: Deadly Luhansk ambush ends lull in east - BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34128085

  6. #2066
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    Perfect example of the Russian style of informational warfare—the Ron Paul Institute was identified early in the Ukrainian conflict to be a Russian info war mouth piece and it still continues to be one.

    The Russian non linear warfare has two very important legs—informational warfare and cyber warfare/cyber crime in order for it to be successful.

    http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives...opaganda-ring/

    Syria: The Propaganda Ring

    Written by Vanessa Beeley

    Thursday August 27, 2015

    “The media’s the most powerful entity on earth. They have the power to make the innocent guilty and to make the guilty innocent, and that’s power. Because they control the minds of the masses.” - Malcolm X

    After four and half years of relentless propaganda being flung around our mainstream media by propagandists, NGOs and Empire serving mouthpieces, one wonders how this stream of effluent still manages to stick to the consciences of the public it serves to deceive.

    Yesterday, a Facebook post caught our attention. A Palestinian based in Gaza posted two photos of child victims in Syria. The photos were accompanied by the caption, “The massacres of Assad regime in Syria #Douma”. The subsequent barrage of comments consisting of the usual plethora of outpouring against Assad and the SAA provoked us to investigate further.

    We discovered that both photos were taken by photographer Khaled Khatib, and were of “reported” SAAF barrel bomb attacks on unclassified areas of Aleppo. Bearing in mind, most of Khaled’s photos on Google appear to be of the immediate aftermath of such an attack, one wonders why he does not specify the area and offer a verified claim of the attack being from barrel bombs, rather than the rather non committal “reported” tag.

    Further investigation revealed that in reality, Khaled Khatib works for and with the White Helmets and his photos are used extensively by the well known EU-backed, one man propaganda band, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The SOHR is actually Mr Rami Abdul Rahman, who runs this propaganda feed from his house in Coventry, UK, and who bases the majority of his information on Skype calls to Syria. This information, however, is unilaterally used by the Axis of Interventionism [US, Europe in particular] to justify their proxy invasion of a sovereign nation and their clumsy, murderous 4.5 year long attempt at the “regime change” of an elected government, engendering, in the process, the widespread loss of civilian life in Syria at the hands of their proxy armies.
    Continued……
    Notice the lack of referencing a particular social media open source analyst who has been tracking the Syria war daily now for four years and was the first to really analyze and document the use of barrel bombs and the use of chlorine barrel bombs when the US looked the other way for months.

    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
    The Ron Paul Institute bravely attacks the White Helmets in Syria, who pull people from rubble:

  7. #2067
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    First possible report of Russian artillery firing or Russian artillery incoming--have to wait to verify.

    19:52 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster Something has strongly boomed 5 minutes ago

  8. #2068
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    Have to wait to see if these initial Russian artillery reports are verified as attacks or drills--BUT ceasefire might just over.

    19:34 #Luhansk @antonio_fz1 "What has rumbled all day? ceasefire or drills?"

    20:08 #Volnovakha @solomazheka "Ceasefire over. Artillery is pounding"
    20:11 There were 5-6 salvos of something very heavy


    Volnovakha: silence. Drone activity reported...

    DNR, Enakievo, training range of Verovka: half a day for biggest "drills" since July, together with DNR of Horlivka https://twitter.com/Utilizator_/stat...10739790163969
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-02-2015 at 06:05 PM.

  9. #2069
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    Russian expands use of non linear warfare into the Artic----

    Russia to Reinforce #Arctic Troops With Air Defense & Missile Regiment http://europe.newsweek.com/russia-re...ampaign=buffer … pic.twitter.com/whNvobxmmX

  10. #2070
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Have to wait to see if these initial Russian artillery reports are verified as attacks or drills--BUT ceasefire might just over.

    19:34 #Luhansk @antonio_fz1 "What has rumbled all day? ceasefire or drills?"

    20:08 #Volnovakha @solomazheka "Ceasefire over. Artillery is pounding"
    20:11 There were 5-6 salvos of something very heavy


    Volnovakha: silence. Drone activity reported...

    DNR, Enakievo, training range of Verovka: half a day for biggest "drills" since July, together with DNR of Horlivka https://twitter.com/Utilizator_/stat...10739790163969
    Has quieted down----

    Today mil trucks of #DNR delivered ammo to positions in #horlivka, must be preparing something https://twitter.com/xuilolala/status/639139464179249152
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-02-2015 at 06:39 PM.

  11. #2071
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    Humor-----

    Cyberwar

    pic.twitter.com/549wdgUDPP

  12. #2072
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    Reference Transnistria---Moldavia

    VIDEO Columns of #Russia(n) T-64 tanks and armor on the move in #Transnistria near #Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj4YwI2_yTY … pic.twitter.com/B66yZqz5lT

  13. #2073
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    http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/09/0...sia-with-them/

    Donbas mercenaries bringing the war home to Russia with them

    2015/09/02

    Russians mercenaries who fought in the Donbas “militias” are returning home not only with their weapons but with increasingly violent dispositions, and according to three experts, they now represent a threat not only to public order but also to political stability.

    Valery Borshchev, a former Duma deputy, tells Russian newspaper “Novyye izvestiya” that many of the returnees have “damaged psyches” and that as a result and in a way recalling those who returned from the Afghanistan and Chechnya wars, Russia now faces “a ‘Donbas’ syndrome” that it must somehow deal with.

    But he suggests that the Donbas returnees will find it “significantly more difficult to adapt to peaceful life.” That is because “after ‘the Chechen campaign,’ rehabilitation centers were established; and these helped many recover. But those centers, Borshchev says, were set up not by the government but by social organizations.

    Now, he says, it appears unlikely that any such centers will be set up. The government doesn’t want to recognize the problem or spend the money, and the NGOs who helped in the past find themselves today in a significantly more difficult situation. Consequently, more guns are coming in, and more of them will be used.

    Returning Donbas “volunteers,” Borshchev says, have gotten used to death and “don’t fear anything. Thus, to stop them [from committing crimes] will be much more difficult than it was to mobilize them in the first place.” And their willingness to use violence will change the face of business conflicts and other disputes.

    “I am not demonizing those who have returned from the Donbas,” he says. “But these are the realities,” and those coming back need “immediate psychological help” or the situation will deteriorate.

    Valentina Melnikova of the Union of Committees of Soldiers Mothers of Russia agrees, arguing that the Russian authorities having sent these men into battle has now largely washed its hands of them, and as a result, there is increasing violence in their homes and on the streets of Russian cities and villages.

    Unless someone provides the Donbas veterans with immediate psychological help, she continues, “some of them really will try to repeat a Donbas in Russia.”

    And she adds, “it isn’t important who will create this … it is important to set up [centers of psychological help and even whole services] precisely now.”

    And Vladimir Zherebenkov, a former investigator at the interior ministry, “confirms the seriousness of the situation,” “Novyye izvestiya” says.

    “Russians went to the Donbas for various reasons: because they believed in the cause, because they wanted money or because they wanted to kill.” Now, they “want a repetition of the military scenarios in Russia,” with some engaged in political causes because of belief, others to get money, and still others to engage in senseless killing.

    All of those threats must be addressed because as one can already see in Rostov oblast, the returning Donbas veterans with their weapons and attitudes are a big problem.

    More police are needed alongside psychological assistance programs, but “the situation [in Rostov] will stabilize it would appear only after the end of military operations. Even after that, however, one must not forget about the returning” militiamen. Otherwise, “the ‘Donbas syndrome’ may become a drawn out illness with a tragic outcome for many.”

  14. #2074
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    This is the key question: how did Russia inherit #UNSC seat after the USSR breakup while 15 it's republics did not? https://twitter.com/AlexPeresviet/st...75090567700480

  15. #2075
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    ATO presser: 10 ceasefire violations yesterday. Ukr strongholds near #Maryinka came twice under RU small arms fire at 7PM and 10PM.

  16. #2076
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    Russian altered state of reality is returning again in full force----appears that while accusing the Ukraine of not fulfilling the political points contained in Minsk 2—Russia completely fails at implementing not a single point in Minsk 2---and denies still they are not involved in the eastern Ukraine.

    Typical Russian Orwellian doublespeak—blame others of things one does not do themselves.

    MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
    #Churkin: #Ukraine authorities are violating #UNSC resolution by ignoring political aspects of the Minsk agreements
    http://tass.ru/en/world/818320

  17. #2077
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    Decrease of militant attacks on Ukr troops stands: 10 attacks on 2 Sep, small arms, large-caliber machine gun in use https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/po...59228867421252

    Russian proxies cease systematic shelling of ATO forces
    http://www.unian.info/war/1118237-ru...to-forces.html … pic.twitter.com/LQjx5XyAaS

    The Ukrainian Security Service claims to have uncovered a plot to blow up an apt building in Kiev suburbs.Sounds like Moscow '99 if true.

    In Kyiv SBU eliminated the group that was planning attacks in the capital http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-septe...t-was-planning … pic.twitter.com/izrT2D9BVi via @ServiceSsu

    Files indicating very close ties between Ukrainian businessmen and Russia in the Ukraine.
    https://dropmefiles.com/CblfJ
    http://www.fayloobmennik.net/5416645

    Is Russia preparing to annex occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk? Or like Russian passports in Transnistria? https://twitter.com/i_korotchenko/st...38378337591296
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 08:11 AM.

  18. #2078
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    This is probably true as Putin needs to appear like a statesperson so he needs some peace and quiet in the Ukraine--- and he then can state see via strong Russian diplomatic engagement we got a ceasefire--thus deflecting any accusations of Russian troops and heavy weapons in the Ukraine.


    Russian expert Belkovsky: new ceasefire in #Ukraine will hold until #Putin's visit to New York. . http://totall.info/lenta/JXQNRUWV.html

    Would also explain the suddenness of the Russians themselves declaring virtually a one side ceasefire and why there was not a single propaganda statement made around explaining the ceasefire.

  19. #2079
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    First indication at least in this combat zone that Russians are pulling back heavy weapons which was a big part of Minsk 2 but never fulfilled by Russia.

    Still no OSCE involvement to confirm and verify where they are being pulled back to also required as part of Minsk 2.

    Cease-fire held for 5th day in sector "M", while mercenaries withdraw heavy equipment from front line - Sec. M spox
    http://m.0629.com.ua/news/947718

    BUT a further clarification----only partly withdrawn--again it seems strictly for PR.
    Militants are partly withdrawing heavy weapons from near #Mariupol - Sector M spokesperson

    Ceasefire. Only one question: Are Russian Ground Forces standing down and withdrawing from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, Donbas, Ukraine?

    ALSO required in Minsk 2--withdrawal as well of all Russian mercenaries.

    We have seen no evidence that Russian Southern Military District 2C structure has been dismantled in occupied Donbas https://twitter.com/GorseFires/statu...50638468591616

    We have seen no evidence that Russian Ground Forces rotations, resupply and H-22-00 armour transfers have ceased https://twitter.com/GorseFires/statu...50638468591616
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 08:36 AM.

  20. #2080
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    Since Russia is such a heavy user of the term the Ukraine is not fulfilling Minsk 2--IT is wise to go back and review the document to understand even the Russian requirements on occasions.

    Minsk 2 Agreement

    12:11PM GMT 12 Feb 2015

    • Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 midnight (Kiev time) on Feb. 15, 2015.

    • Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U.

    – for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;

    – for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014

    • The pullout of the above mentioned heavy weapons has to start no later than the second day after the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.


    • This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    • Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

    • On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.

    • Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014.

    • Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular departments of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine.

    • Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of “all for all”. This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).

    • Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.

    • Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field)

    • With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    • Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    • Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

    • Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new Constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the footnotes, by the end of 2015.
    NOTICE: the distance for Russian heavy weapons to be pulled back is actually from the first Minsk 1 demarcation line--Russia and her mercenaries argue it is from the Minsk 2 demarcation line.

    Argument is academic as they have never pulled at all.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 08:30 AM.

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