Page 105 of 170 FirstFirst ... 55595103104105106107115155 ... LastLast
Results 2,081 to 2,100 of 3394

Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #2081
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Russian non linear warfare includes the weaponization of economics as well----

    Russia invaded #Ukraine, destroying its coal industry. The result? Ukraine is now importing coal from Russia http://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/287653.html

    Russia has been stealing Ukrainian coal from the very beginning--first by truck and now by rail.

  2. #2082
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    This is how Russia is handling the so called "ceasefire".

    OSCE UAV lost over Sontseve most likely shot down by militants & possibly by 9K35 “Strela-10”

    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/179706 … pic.twitter.com/WauvJfspZK

    TASS press release shortly after the shot down claimed technical failure as the reason.

    Russian mercenaries did not allow the OSCE to recover the crashed UAV remains--they were under gun point forced to leave the area--THAT is

    Remember. Russian (hybrid) forces can withdraw armour from Sontseve then return it to frontline positions in <1 hour pic.twitter.com/WaE8LX96GhRussia adhering to Minsk 2
    .
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 08:52 AM.

  3. #2083
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Perfect example of the Russian style of informational warfare—the Ron Paul Institute was identified early in the Ukrainian conflict to be a Russian info war mouth piece and it still continues to be one.

    The Russian non linear warfare has two very important legs—informational warfare and cyber warfare/cyber crime in order for it to be successful.

    http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives...opaganda-ring/

    Syria: The Propaganda Ring

    Written by Vanessa Beeley

    Thursday August 27, 2015


    Notice the lack of referencing a particular social media open source analyst who has been tracking the Syria war daily now for four years and was the first to really analyze and document the use of barrel bombs and the use of chlorine barrel bombs when the US looked the other way for months.

    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
    The Ron Paul Institute bravely attacks the White Helmets in Syria, who pull people from rubble:
    Dep for minister Makdad also said Syrian armed forces never attacked cities and villages in this country. Appealed to Syrians to come home

    Back into time----
    Anyone remember deputy FM Faysal Mekdad? He told the world more than 2 years ago: "We are winning, we already won!"
    https://twitter.com/ArtWendeley/stat...04192434229248

  4. #2084
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    One does well to go back and review past Russian statements on the eastern Ukraine and then look at how it fits into the current "ceasefire".

    http://tass.ru/en/world/794684

    Russian official says Ukraine's eastern regions may opt for Crimean pathway

    May 14, 15:53 UTC+3

    A member of Russian parliament's upper house said Kiev will have to treat Donbas as a special region and take account of the losses it has suffered during the military operation if it wants to keep it

    MOSCOW, May 14. /TASS/. Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions may opt for the pathway already trodden by Crimea, Konstantin Kosachev, the chairman of the foreign policy committee in the upper house of Russian parliament wrote on his blog on Thursday.

    He recalled a recent remark that the leader of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, Yuri Lutsenko, made in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, saying Donbas was not entitled to getting any special autonomous status.

    Lutsenko drew a comparison between Donbas and Crimea. "In 1991, the contrived special status (of the former Crimean region of what used to be the Ukrainian Soviet Social Republic - TASS), which transformed the regional council into the Crimean Supreme Rada, brought up separatism and put a part of the country into an opposition to all other parts," he said.

    "In reality, everything happened the other way round," Kosachev said. "It was the underestimation of Crimea’s specificity by the Kiev authorities and the persistent diminishing of its status over a period of more than twenty years that generated all the subsequent problems."

    "Exactly the same thing will happen or won’t happen in the southeast of Ukraine depending on what scenario of actions the Kiev government opts for," Kosachev said.

    He believes that decentralization tailored along the ‘one size fits everyone’ formula, which Kiev is seeking to impose on Donbas won’t be accepted by its residents.

    "If Ukraine wants to keep Donbas within its sovereign borders, the government will have to treat it as a special region and to take account of the losses it suffered during the so-called Antiterrorist Operation, which actually turned out to be a war against fellow-countrymen," Kosachev said.

  5. #2085
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Map. Military situation in eastern #Ukraine, September 3, 2015, 00:00 EET pic.twitter.com/Y2vLOWE1U6

    Militants fired on positions near Krymske with small arms. Ukrainian soldier was wounded - MIA
    http://www.mvs.gov.ua/mvs/control/lu...article/182272

  6. #2086
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Relatively quiet on the Ukrainian eastern front line---will check in on social media this evening to see if there is anything that needs posting.

  7. #2087
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Russian altered state of reality again hits the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs---

    Zakharova of MFA of RF: Conduct of U.S.-Ukraine naval exercises is against peace at Donbas http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-septe...-the-usukraine … pic.twitter.com/SJJQwuJE5r

    As Russian troops continue to fight in UKR @SputnikInt claims "US Troops in #Ukraine violate #MinskDeal @MFA_Russia pic.twitter.com/H7IRwXmu2J

    #Zakharova: Make no mistake, peaceful settlement based on Minsk Agreements is the only way to settle the crisis in Ukraine

    Russia set to extend its "universal jurisdiction" to Donbas
    http://www.unian.info/war/1118448-ru...to-donbas.html … pic.twitter.com/iIMUWrSTlV

    BUT Russia has never fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2.

    Russian MFA: the primary responsibility for the Downing of MH17 is on Ukraine

    Russian BUK shots down MH17 with a joint Russian and Russian mercenary crew AND then blames the Ukraine by stating they are responsible—seems like the Russians are actually the responsible party ifn it their missile and missle crew.

    Zakharova: Russia took note of belligerent talk that once again comes from Kiev; decisions aimed at escalating the conflict are being taken

    Putin using far right to destabilize Ukraine, Poroshenko says

    Zakharova: All Moscow wants is a peaceful settlement and for Kiev to fulfill its commitments as soon as possible

    NOTE again begs to be not involved yet it is their troops and heavy weapons inside the Ukraine AND they have never fulfilled a single point in Minsk 2.

    Zakharova: Ukrainian constitution amendments regarding Donbass should be coordinated with these territories, including decentralization

    As a sovereign state the Ukraine does not have to decide to who and with whom they talk—Russia cannot dictate that to any sovereign nation that they promised to protect under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

  8. #2088
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Notice just now Russia now turns the Minsk 2 agreement into a legally binding international law agreement when it fact it is not as it was never ratified by the Ukraine nor was it ratified by France and Germany.

    Russia loves using the term international law, international agreements BUT often fails to exactly define what they mean.

    When he refers to the Geneva Convention one could actually via massive social media videos and photos charge the entire Russian leadership with multiple war crimes against humanity and using civilians as human shields BUT notice he did not mention that small aspect.

    http://www.unian.info/war/1118448-ru...to-donbas.html

    Russia set to extend its "universal jurisdiction" to Donbas

    03.09.2015 | 16:51

    Chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation Alexander Bastrykin claimed the extension of Russia's "universal jurisdiction" to the southeast of Ukraine and justification of "criminal prosecution" of top political and military leadership of Ukraine.

    Such statement he made when speaking at a meeting devoted to "countering violations of human rights of the civilian population of the southeast of Ukraine," a Russia-based UNIAN correspondent reported.

    Bastrykin said that under such circumstances the Investigative Committee "cannot keep aside" as this crime is related to violation of universally recognized norms and principles of international law, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949, as well as obligations under Minsk agreements, involving withdrawal from September 2014 of heavy weapons (over 100 mm caliber) to a distance of 15 km away from the front line, as well as a ban to use all weapons and conduct offensive operations considered as war crimes against peace and security of mankind.

    NOTICE this is a somewhat typical Russian misinterpretation of the Minsk 2 agreement--if one reads it thoroughly and the Russians never read the exact words--it clearly states that it applies to both the UAF and the Russian troops and her mercenaries AND the Russian troops and her mercenaries HAVE to withdraw their heavy weapons FROM the Minsk 1 define demarcation line.

    THAT is what Russia somewhat missed in their version of the agreement.


    Bastrykin said Russia has thoroughly explored the issue of Russian jurisdiction in connection with such events. According to him, the international humanitarian law provides grounds for Russia to apply its universal jurisdiction in the investigation of this category of cases.

    Bastrykin believes "it is legitimate and justified for the Russian Investigative Committee, based on both the Russian legislation and the international law, to initiate criminal cases of genocide, as well as prosecute political and military leadership of Ukraine."

    According to Bastrykin, the committed crime is proved by collected evidence and testimonies of witnesses and victims residing in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and those who were forced to leave the territory of Ukraine.
    One has to really love the way the Russian leadership twists and turns information to match their ideas.

  9. #2089
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Since Russia is such a heavy user of the term the Ukraine is not fulfilling Minsk 2--IT is wise to go back and review the document to understand even the Russian requirements on occasions.

    Minsk 2 Agreement

    12:11PM GMT 12 Feb 2015


    NOTICE: the distance for Russian heavy weapons to be pulled back is actually from the first Minsk 1 demarcation line--Russia and her mercenaries argue it is from the Minsk 2 demarcation line.

    Argument is academic as they have never pulled back at all.
    Notice the true altered state of reality the Russian MF still seems to be in--is it they cannot read the Minsk 2 agreement OR are they afraid to actually read it and implement it??????

    MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
    #Zakharova: The key provisions of the Minsk Package are clear and should not be interpreted at will, let alone distorted


    So flipping the argument back to Russia --WHAT is it in the Minsk 2 agreement the Russian FM clearly seems to not understand AND why does Russia not implement fully Minsk 2.


    BUT it appears the Russian MF seems to not know the full story about fulfillment of Minsk 2----

    Systematic jamming of #OSCE UAVs, particularly in separatist contr areas in #Ukraine must stop, says EU in OSCE perm Council

    UK Delegation OSCE ✔ @UKOSCE
    In #OSCE PC, EU condemns continuing restrictions on #SMM movement & #security, including loss of 1 UAV over separatist-controlled territory.


    Appears that while Russian demanded the OSCE be involved in the Ukraine--THEN they fail to implement and or allow the OSCE to do their jobs--why is that and what are they afraid of????
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 03:56 PM.

  10. #2090
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Russian "Orlan" drones in #Ukraine, excellent OSINT job https://en.informnapalm.org/orlan-dr...st-petersburg/ … pic.twitter.com/BZLnDqnjBr

    Moscow blogger posted photos of war-torn Debaltceve
    http://24today.net/open/517586 pic.twitter.com/OGqhgfqdFA

    1,500 Russian Southern MD NBC troops heavy flamethrower (TOS-1) combat training at Prudboy range, Volgograd Reg 2 Sep http://eng.mil.ru/en/mcis/news/more....2054815@egNews

    250 Russian Southern MD artillery units & 1,300 troops combat training at Prudboy range, Volgograd Region. MoD 3 Sep http://eng.mil.ru/en/mcis/news/more....2054887@egNews

  11. #2091
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Oleksandr Motuzyanyk: Russia-backed militants use heavy weapons in Luhansk sector for the first time in the past days



    Kyiv, September 3, 2015. The situation remained tense in the Luhansk sector as Ukraine’s mobile group designated to counter smuggling across government- and militant-controlled areas was ambushed between Shchastya and Slovyanoserbsk resulting in death of a volunteer and a State Fiscal Service officer. Six Ukrainian troops were injured. Ukrainian forces did not incur any casualties in other sectors over the last 24 hours. “Militants also used heavy armament the first time in four days, firing at Ukrainian positions near Novotoshkivske, Bakhmutivska road, from 120 mm mortars,” said Colonel Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, spokesperson of the Administration of the President of Ukraine on ATO-related issues, at a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. Provocations instigated by militants took place near Shchastya and Krymske where they fired from small arms. The ceasefire held yesterday in Popasna district as well as near Svitlodarsk, Horlivka and at the front line between Dzerzhynsk and Yasynuvata.
    Need to watch this to see if this is in fact a slow stepped restarting of the war or just "restless mercenaries".

  12. #2092
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Excellent example of Russian informational warfare--ie the twisting of words to awake a total different image.

    TASS, RT: "Mogherini calls to destroy vessels with migrants" http://russian.rt.com/article/113037
    Actual quote: "Capture and disposal of smuggler vessels"

    At the @OSCE, the Russian Federation has accused others of "propaganda" and "cynicism". http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/3-septe...on-has-accused

    Russian informational warfare is now in full swing in Syria----

    Here recent Lifenews report on pro-Assad 'Special Forces' preparing to fight ISIS. Perviy Kanal reports next?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV4FJ4yOapQ
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 03:40 PM.

  13. #2093
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Worth reading the complete article-----

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/09/0...led-rebellion/

    DNR leaks: “Rebel” leader infighting, Ponzi schemes, and Russian intelligence supervisors

    Article by: Kirill Mikhailov

    Ex-DNR leader’s Denis Pushilin’s and his aide’s messages surface on the Internet

    “Ukrainian Cyber Army” hackers published messages of a former “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DNR”) leader and current DNR representative in the Minsk agreement contact group Denis Pushilin and his aide. Among the data, analyzed by Radio Liberty’s Russian service, are Pushilin’s Skype messages as well as well as an archive from the Viber messenger of his aide, Aleksandr Serov. These messages tell a lot about “DNR’s” inner workings and the life of its leadership. They contain everything from reports to supervisors from Russian intelligence to Pushilin’s attempts to work in the Amway multi-level marketing system, bypassing US sanctions.

    Машина наблюдателей ОБСЕ в Луганске
    OSCE monitor car in Luhansk

    The messages cover a period from spring 2014 to summer 2015. Pushilin’s Skype contains little interesting information – most of the messages published are routine correspondence with DNR ex-“minister of information and mass communications”Aleksandr Khryakov and his successor Elena Nikitina. For instance, Khryakov complains to Pushilin on the lack of gas needed to drive Russian and OSCE members of the truce monitoring committee around the Donbas. The minister also doesn’t like that his and Russians’ documents are routinely checked at “DNR” checkpoints:


    “I’m driving Russians at the head of the convoy and OSCE goes in line after me!!! And they ask for papers at military checkpoints (just so you know)!!! And, you aren’t gonna believe this, but a car needs gas to move, it won’t move without it, see!!!”

    Denis Pushilin’s Skype message dated 24 July 2015 mentions he is outside Donetsk “at a meeting with V. Yu.” These initials may mean Vladislav Yurievich Surkov, a Kremlin official who, according to uncofirmed data, supervised the first stage of Putin’s “Novorossiya” project. Pushilin admitted plans to meet Surkov in an interview to slon.ru on June 18. Later he wrote on Skype that the meeting went well and “everything is ok.”

    Much more information on how “DNR” functions may be derived from Viber messages of a certain “Petrovich.” The messages tell us that this is a cover for Aleksandr Petrovich Serov, codename “Chapai” (Serov’s vk.com profile where he calls himself Sergey), an old friend and colleague of Pushilin since the times the latter was just a head of an “MMM” Ponzi scheme in Donetsk and Makiivka (cities in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast).


    mmm2

    МММ was a Russian company that perpetrated one of the world’s largest Ponzi schemes of all time, in the 1990s. By different estimates from 5 to 40 million people lost up to $10 billion. The exact figures are not known even to the founders.

    Source: Wikipedia

    This is indeed a cover: according to Serov himself, most of his acquaintances think he was “killed in a shelling in Donetsk airport,” and only his children, girlfriend (who later became his wife) and the closest friends know he’s alive. At only two points in the correspondence does Serov reveal his true name. He needs it for filing an official paper and so that a middleman through which he bought weapons in Russia would recognize him. The authenticity of the messages is confirmed by a lot of names, last names, codenames, dates and other details matching real events of 2014-2015 in Eastern Ukraine.

    Денис Пушилин в роли представителя
    Denis Pushilin acting as “DNR” representative in the contact group on Minsk agreement monitoring, August 2015

    It’s unclear how the hackers managed to access Serov’s correspondence by hacking Pushilin’s computer. Probably at some point Pushilin bought a new phone, while Serov received his old one and started actively using it. According to the messages, Serov performed technical functions: helped his friends with transportation and weapons, discussed the “republic’s” internal politics and planned on becoming an MP of the “DNR people’s council,” arranged moving Russians coming in and out of the Donbas across the border and even found a way to register his boss Pushilin in the US marketing network Amway, bypassing sanctions imposed on Pushilin by the US. The messages also mention Russians – both “vacation soldiers” and supervisors from the FSB [Federal Security Service] and GRU [Main Intelligence Directorate].

    The Ponzi revolution

    The war does not stop Serov from advancing his MMM Ponzi scheme through both Russia and Ukraine, registering people in the system left and right, while at the same time looking to buy a used car in Russia, ostensibly “for DNR purposes,” but really for personal use.

    В феврале 2014 года Денис Пушилин лично участвовал в открытии первого офиса
    Denis Pushilin opening MMM’s first office in Simferopol, Crimea, on February 2014

    In between discussing Grad attacks, he also attempted (successfully) to register Denis Pushilin in a US Amway network for distributing cosmetics and healthcare products. The procedure was complicated by the US sanctions against “DNR” leaders, including Pushilin.

    Serov persuaded his correspondents in Russia to register in the MMM pyramid, operating in Russia since 1994. “MMM people made this revolution, that’s a fact,” Serov boasted in one of the messages.

    Spreading the “Ponzi scheme revolution,” Serov discussed with his MMM colleague in Kyiv ways to peddle their scam to National Guardsmen stationed in Ukraine’s capital. “Ukraine would indirectly finance DNR,” he noted triumphantly.

    False reports and border crossings

    In June 2014, Serov arranged moving several colleagues across the Russia-Ukraine border. Apparently they did so through official channels, as they spoke of forging migration papers.

    Going back to Russia included getting approval from pro-Russian fighters from Chechnya manning “DNR” checkpoints.

    Бойцы из Чечни, воюющие на стороне сепаратистов
    Chechen fighters forming parts of Russian hybrid troops

    Other routine tasks include finding a drunken separatist fighter who went to Donetsk on foot or getting a template from “Luhansk Republic” officials for an appeal to another Russian-backed “republic” of South Ossetia to recognize “New Russia.”

    In September 2014, right after the first ceasesifre was signed, Serov tells Alexau Muratov, head of “Donetsk Republic” movement in Russia and editor of a pro-“rebel” news websitе, to change the date of a video of a destroyed Ukrainian convoy in order to conceal a blatant ceasefire violation.

    At some point, he also discussed “correcting” a Lifenews dispatch from Donetsk Airport, which showed the “rebels” being inept and lacking combat skills. The report, according to Serov, “didn’t follow the Guidelines.”

    Something rotten in the Republic of Donetsk

    Игорь
    Igor “Demon” Bezler

    ​Apparently Serov was close to Igor “Demon” Bezler, a terrorist commander in the town of Horlivka. On 1 July 2014, when Bezler refused to submit to “DNR” authorities and attempted a coup in Donetsk, Serov frantically wrote to a friend of his in Russia:


    “Urgent: Bezler men (i.e. us) are declared terrorists and ordered to be shot on sight.” Serov considers fleeing to Russia, but doubts he would be safe enough even there. Apparently, he did manage to avoid persecution, since he didn’t move to Russia after all.

    Александр Бородай (слева) и
    Aleksandr Borodai (left) with “DNR” “Prime Minister” Zakharchenko

    ​Serov’s accounts tell of DNR’s internal strife, conflicts between Denis Pushilin and Aleksandr Borodai, a “political expert” from Moscow and another “DNR” “Founding father.” He wrote that Borodai was trying to push Pushilin’s dismissal through “DNR’s” “People’s council,” but the deputies were against putting the item on the agenda.

    Serov blames another of the early “Novorossiya” leaders, Pavel Gubarev, for staging an attempt on his own life – in a message right after the media told about the incident.

    Павел Губарев
    Pavel Gubarev

    Serov definitely envies media attention to Gubarev and reminds this is not the first “murder plot” against him.

    Other messages speak of fierce competition between “DNR” units: Serov urges to film a report glorifying Bezler’s actions during the September 2014 Russian offensive, so that Motorola (another prominent rebel commander) or Zakharchenko’s “Oplot” battalion wouldn’t steal all the credit.

    In a July message, Serov admitted that “people [in Donetsk] say Putin is a d***head” and “Russians’ rating in Donbas is extremely low.” This may be related to Kremlin’s refusal to incorporate the “republics” into Russia via Crimea scenario.

    In November, Serov planned to gain an MP seat during the sham “DNR” elections, but Pushilin would have none of it, which led Serov to complaining of forsaken ideals of their “revolution.”

    Later Serov also discussed Moscow plans to arrest Pushilin. This is perhaps why the frequent use of slogans like “Glory to Ukraine” in the messages may be not as ironic as it might seem.

    Money, guns and loot

    Владимир Путин с автоматом во время визита на Тульский оружейный завод в январе 2014 года
    Vladimir Putin at the Tula weapons plant, March 2014

    It turns out Denis Pushilin, who, according to a Russian investigation, was in charge of large sums of money for Kremlin’s “Novorossiya” project, didn’t give salaries to his aides, despite promising to “sponsor” them via “New Russia People’s Front”.

    Continued......

  14. #2094
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    http://www.rferl.org/content/a-soft-.../27225009.html

    A Soft Annexation In Donbas

    By Brian Whitmore

    September 03, 2015

    They're already using the Russian currency. They may soon be issued Russian passports. And in a couple of months, they plan to vote in a stage-managed referendum to formally join Russia.

    It sure is beginning to look a lot like an annexation in Donbas. Or at least a well-orchestrated bluff.

    Separatist officials in the self-styled Luhansk People's Republic this week formally made the Russian ruble their main currency.

    The ruble, of course, has long been in circulation in the breakaway eastern Ukrainian enclave. But effective September 1, it will be the official monetary unit for taxes, the budget, wages, pensions, and other social benefits.

    The goal, separatist officials say, is to bring the territory fully into the ruble zone and eliminate the hryvnya.

    The move followed announcements that separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will hold a referendum on uniting with Russia in late October or early November.

    And this all comes amid persistent press reports claiming that the Kremlin is mulling the option of issuing Russian passports to residents of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.

    We've of course seen this movie before -- in Transdniester, in South Ossetia, and in Abkhazia. But if in those cases, forcing a frozen conflict and creating a Russian protectorate was part of an offensive strategy meant to exert pressure on Moldova and Georgia, respectively.

    But in eastern Ukraine, they are a sign that Moscow is losing the diplomatic and political tug-of-war that is the Donbas endgame -- and losing it badly.

    And that is because Russia's goal in eastern Ukraine -- at least in the small chunk of territory it now controls - has never been annexation or the establishment of a de facto protectorate.

    Moscow doesn't want the separatist territories separated from the rest of Ukraine, but integrated into it. The Kremlin wants Kyiv to carry the burden of reconstructing the region, and it wants Moscow's proxies to act as a fifth column to disrupt Kyiv's westward drive.

    But the authorities in Kyiv aren't letting this happen.

    "Ukraine's position is that it will not play according to the Kremlin's script in Donbas," Vladimir Gorbulin, a former secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council, wrote in NZ recently. "The reintegration of Donbas into Ukraine in Russia's terms will not happen,"

    MIsplaced Fury

    Sure, Ukrainian nationalists are up in arms about proposed amendments to the constitution that will devolve power to the regions and stipulate that a vaguely defined special status will be granted to the separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.

    Those changes, part of the Minsk cease-fire agreement, passed their initial reading in parliament this week, sparking the worst violence Kyiv has seen since the Euromaidan revolution when far-right protesters hurled grenades at police, killing three.

    But if you look closely at what is going on, it is clear that the nationalists' fury is misguided.

    President Petro Poroshenko and his government are obviously slow-walking the process and have no intention of granting the separatist-held territories special status any time soon.

    Kyiv is insisting that the pro-Moscow rebels disarm, Russia withdraw its troops from Donbas, and that separatist-controlled areas of the border be returned to Ukraine's control before there can be any discussion about the territories' status.

    Poroshenko says the decentralization amendments won't even come up for a final vote until the end of the year.

    "Whether or not the Kremlin removes its troops, equipment and proxies from the Donbas or not -- and one has to suspect not -- the final decentralization vote does not seem likely to occur anytime before Easter 2016," political analyst and blogger Nikolai Holmov wrote recently.

    Holmov adds that it's highly unlikely they will pass with the required super-majority as long as the clause about the rebel regions' status is included.

    And what about that clause? It simply states that "The particulars of local government in certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are to be determined by a special law."

    In other words, even if the amendments pass, the status of these territories won't be determined until an entirely new law passes.

    This is clearly going to take a while -- which is the point.

    The Poroshenko government is being careful to tick all the boxes on the Minsk accords, while at the same time running the clock out until the end of the year, when Moscow is obliged to fulfil its end -- returning the border to Ukraine's control.

    Unpalatable Options

    All of this puts Russia in a very tough spot.

    The Kremlin had been heavily lobbying the West to pressure Ukraine to grant the separatist areas autonomy before it ceded the border, but these efforts appear to have failed.

    This became apparent, according to political analyst Taras Chornovil, following Poroshenko's meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande in Berlin on August 24.

    "There was a breakthrough moment in Berlin," Chornovil told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Germany and France for the first time admitted openly that they support the Ukrainian side in its interpretation of the Minsk agreements."

    Moscow can't force Ukraine to take the rebel-held territories back on its terms. And this leaves it with three unpalatable options: restart the war, annex the territories, or freeze the conflict and turn them into a protectorate.

    The moves to formally introduce the ruble in the separatist regions, the threats to hold a referendum on joining Russia, and the noise about issuing Russian passports are a last-ditch effort to pressure Kyiv. And Kyiv isn't budging.

    Which leaves Moscow stuck taking its least worst option: call it a soft annexation.

    And this removes the last bit of leverage Russia has over Kyiv.

    "Ukraine will never now be a gray neutral territory between East and West," Ukrainian political analyst Serhiy Taran told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Either we won't emerge alive from this hell or else we will emerge very strong. I am convinced it will be the latter, if only because this is what everyone except Russia wants."

  15. #2095
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    This cannot be the Obama foreign policy------long article.

    Why Waiting for Russia to Collapse Is a Terrible Ukraine Policy

    Nikolas K. Gvosdev

    September 1, 2015

    Two months ago, a number of senior U.S. national-security officials insisted that the Russian Federation has reemerged as the premier existential threat to American interests. Today, as energy prices continue to tumble and China's economy falters, a new narrative has emerged: the pending collapse of Russia itself, or at least the prospects that the government of Vladimir Putin is entering into its last days. The continuous oscillation in views—Russia as a powerful threat, Russia as an imploding basket case—does not permit a cool, rational assessment of Russia's actual strengths and weaknesses.

    Let's first start with the economic indicators. Russia's economy is contracting, its currency is losing value vis-à-vis the dollar and the euro, and its industrial output is showing signs of decline. Because of the conflict in Ukraine, Western sanctions remain in place against Russia. The second round of collapsing energy prices further decreases the revenues available to the Kremlin—although the devaluation of the currency has helped to partially compensate for this since energy exports are priced in and generally paid for in dollars and euros. And Putin's lifeline against Western sanctions—more than $100 billion in deals, credits and loans with China—has been compromised by China's own economic woes. Inflation is eating away at the savings and purchasing power of Russian citizens. Between devaluation, Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions, imports have become either more expensive or have disappeared altogether, while domestic substitutes have not generated sufficient replacements.

    These basic facts are not in dispute by most people ranging from Kremlin ministers to vociferous Putin opponents. What these developments may portend, however, is open to interpretation.

    In one narrative, the declining economy will galvanize widespread public opposition to the Putin government, as hundreds of thousands of Russians are set to fall below the poverty line. Declining commodity prices make it much more difficult for the Kremlin to be able to distribute financial support to a number of the economically strapped regions of Russia, depriving the government of one of its more effective tools for managing local unrest. The cratering economy will also negatively impact the fortunes and livelihoods of the Russian elite, particularly as sanctions cut into their ability to maintain access to Western sources of goods and services. The Kremlin will come under tremendous pressure to reverse its foreign-policy choices—starting with supporting separatists in Ukraine and aiding the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria—in order to shore up its economic base. Spending on military rejuvenation will have to end. Moreover, some have even begun to speculate about a combination of mass public protests and elite maneuverings coalescing in Putin's very removal as president.

    The seductiveness of such a narrative to Western governments is apparent. For the last year, American and European leaders have solemnly warned about the dangers posed by Putin to Euro-Atlantic security, yet the rhetoric has still not been completely matched by decisive action. There have been some rotations of forces and equipment to the eastern frontiers of the NATO alliance, but no permanent pivot back to Europe, and in fact, the United States continues to withdraw personnel. Many European governments have still not increased defense spending while some continue to cut such expenditures. Ukraine has received only a fraction of the aid it needs and almost none of the military assistance it has requested to push back the separatists. A narrative that a collapsing Russian economy, however, is going to deliver Moscow's complete reversal on Ukraine and may even lead to regime change in the Kremlin itself—and in a matter of months—takes Western governments off the hook. The West need not "do" anything more, but simply wait for the Russian collapse, in a repeat of what happened to the Soviet Union thirty years ago.

    It seems quite dangerous, however, to base policy towards Russia on assumptions of a forthcoming economic disaster. The Russian economy is slated to enter a period of extreme austerity, but even with the declines, there is nothing that resembles the catastrophe of the 1990s, with GDP being nearly halved. Declines are still predicted in the single digits—indicating future hardships, not outright collapse. It is also not clear that popular unhappiness will translate into sustained anti-government unrest. Here, the failure of the West to develop a rapid, comprehensive Ukrainian rescue package plays a critical role. Russians are well aware of the tremendous economic hardships Ukraine is facing in the post-Maidan period and that Ukraine has not been given any significant help to put it on a path to prosperity, which may temper enthusiasm for any sort of revolutionary activity. Russian media has also consistently covered the prolonged economic crisis in Greece and other EU member-states, sending a very strong signal that not only would there be no real reward for Russia if Putin were to be removed, but that Russia could face even worse economic conditions than the current austerity they must undergo. Given the conservative and risk-averse nature of Russian political culture, grumbling and protests about current conditions may not in fact translate into sustained action for political change.

    Continued........

  16. #2096
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Russian heavy equipment on the move----

    reports of moving BMPs (APCs) thru Donetsk, in direction to airport...

    more APC movements.. Azotniy district of Donetsk https://twitter.com/AkaDON12/status/639495694072553472

  17. #2097
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Footage
    Russian invaders ambush "Right Sector" jeep, capture weapons.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMBhwb1oy-4
    pic.twitter.com/q24lxGz6qL

    Russian Hackers group got documents on Akhmetov visits to Donetsk and ties with Zaharchenko pic.twitter.com/RS3q3EA8eg http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/2-septe...t-documents-on
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2015 at 06:39 PM.

  18. #2098
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Quiet evening--outside of occasional Russian heavy equipment movements not much going on----signing off.

  19. #2099
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Putin "We are not to blame for the incidents in Ukraine" https://twitter.com/theinsider_ua/st...75529143152640

    Only 5 #Russia|n ceasefire violations with small arms yesterday

    07.30 #Yasinovataya quiet. Traces of tracked equipment by #Zemlyanky. 2pcs left to Zorka & 4 tow traffic police post https://twitter.com/PVB40/status/639668664367759360

    Explosion in #Zaporozhye at night http://espreso.tv/news/2015/09/04/u_...ofis_anisimova

    Lysychansk
    Loud rumble can be heard from #Zolote the second morning in a row.
    (drills?) https://twitter.com/lisichanskiy/sta...58808495763456

    The UAF strongholds from #Optyne after midnight twice came under small arms fire.

    Around 8:30 from #Spartak they hit with 82-mm mortars UAF positions at #Optyne.

    ATO presser: 5 ceasefire violations yday, chaotic & provocative. In the evening UAF pos. nr #Avdiivka twice came under small arms & RPG fire

  20. #2100
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Russian non linear warfare is now fully functioning inside Syria with Russian boots on the ground.

    Notice the interplay between social media open source analysis and MSM in certain areas--ie aviation.

    The first report came from social media and then The Aviationist picked it up and ran with it.

    The Aviationist » These photos suggest Russian Air Force jets and drones are already operating against ISIS in Syria http://theaviationist.com/2015/09/02...is-over-syria/

Similar Threads

  1. How effective have Arab armies been at 'small wars'?
    By davidbfpo in forum Middle East
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 01-10-2014, 10:57 AM
  2. War is War
    By Michael C in forum Futurists & Theorists
    Replies: 101
    Last Post: 10-09-2010, 06:23 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •