http://time.com/4054941/putin-russia-syria/
The Real Reason Russia Is ‘Helping’ Syria
Timothy Snyder
Sept. 30, 2015
Eighteen months ago, when Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, confusion prevailed in the West. Today, as Russia sends troops, armor, and aircraft to Syria, we are once again perplexed. On Monday President Vladimir Putin provided the explanation: Russia’s intervention is aimed to defeat ISIS and reduce the flow of refugees to Europe. A review of the last major Russian intervention, in Ukraine, might help us to evaluate this claim.
The superficial links between the two conflicts are obvious. For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, a ceasefire is holding. This has allowed Moscow to send special forces from Ukraine to Syria. The naval base in Crimea is now used to project Russian power southwards.
The deeper connectionis Russian doctrine. Authoritarian leaders are legitimate, while popular resistance is not. President Putin’s claim to oppose Islamic terrorism is true enough. But he also opposes, with equal fervor and greater determination, secular democrats in his own country and in Europe. Russia invaded Ukraine not to halt a “military coup,” as President Putin rather oddly claimed on Monday, but to hinder a democratic movement by military action. In Syria, Russia has helped and presumably will continue to help Assad repress all resistance, not just the Islamicist variety.
From Moscow’s perspective, there is not much difference between university students protesting in Kyiv for closer ties with the European Union and Islamicist terrorists gaining ground in Syria. In both cases, Russian leaders can, quite understandably, see a coming domestic problem. If people can gather peacefully in Kyiv, why not in Moscow? If Islamic terrorism can work in Syria, why not in southern Russia?
But the more important factor is domestic public opinion. Russia is a television culture, and Russian television news is devoted almost entirely to the world beyond Russia. In the last few days, Russian television has completely changed the subject: from Ukraine to Syria. What must not be mentioned is that Russia has not achieved its goals in Ukraine. The Ukrainian war shows that Russia can fail even when the European Union pays only a very small amount of attention to the conflict. What Russian leaders seem to want in Syria is a war without EU sanctions, which they can win for the viewers at home.
Russian leaders seem to fear the European example more than they fear Islamic terrorism. The post-communist and post-Soviet countries that have joined the European Union are not only freer but richer than Russia. President Putin presented this in his speech Monday as heedless expansionism, setting aside the basic fact that the EU enlarged at the initiative of the new member states. Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent one more post-Soviet country from succeeding in ways that Russia has not.
The war in Ukraine was thus never about Ukraine alone. It was always about the destruction of the European project as such. If the European Union fails, then there is no danger that Russians will see Europe as an alternative. If Europe fragments into nation-states, Russia becomes a much stronger player. Thus Russia seeks to destroy the European Union by supporting radicals and populists who oppose European integration and seek a return to the nation-state. Although President Putin spoke of a revived “anti-Nazi coalition,” his friends in Europe include fascists.
So Ukrainian experience gives reason for skepticism about Putin’s claim that Russia is intervening in Syria to help Europe with its refugee problem. The politics might well be exactly the opposite. Having found a powerful ally in its quest to end European integration, the European far right has followed Moscow’s lead on the Ukrainian conflict. But the natural subject of Putin’s allies in Europe is immigration. By supporting the Assad regime, Russia helps to produce the refugees that drive European politics rightward.
Syrian refugees who arrive in Europe must be treated humanely and according to law. At the same time, European leaders might consider the possibility that Russian policy in Syria is aimed toward the transformation of the country into a refugee factory. In Ukraine, Russian intervention generated two million refugees among precisely the people Moscow claimed it was protecting. In Syria, it has been the Assad regime, which Russia has now supported, that has been responsible for the vast majority of the refugees.
Whether opposing European Union or Islamicist terrorism, the domestic sources of Russian policy are the same. The problems that Russia faces are inside Russia, and insoluble from beyond Russia. There is no principle of political succession in Russia today, and so Kremlin is telling its people stories about the infallibility and immortality of a leader. In a televisual culture, domestic news is all but absent, and Russia’s presence on the world stage becomes the only story. But the power to change the subject from Ukraine to Syria, as President Putin was trying to do in New York, is not the power to make the story go on forever.
But did President Putin even manage to change the subject? He made some good points about American policy in Iraq. But when he sought the words to define just what he opposed, he gave an eerily accurate description of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. He denounced “zones of anarchy,” which is what Russia created in the Donbas. He decried “belief in one’s exceptionality,” thought it was precisely the idea that Russia as big brother can decide whether Ukraine exists was given as the reason for war. He spoke of the “tragic consequences” of exporting one’s own social model and the dangers of creating “protectorates.” That is indeed the lesson of the Ukrainians killed and displaced by policies known as the “Russian spring” and “New Russia.”
President Putin spoke of the “universality” of international law regarding “sovereignty.” And here he was quite right. If Russia were serious about law and sovereignty, President Putin might have announced at the UN that Russia is withdrawing its support from its separatist clients in Ukraine and withdrawing its troops and armor from sovereign Ukrainian territory. If he had said these things, then the world would have had very good reason to listen.
Is the Ukraine "bending the news" in order to make it look like Russia is holding to the ceasefire---YES.
Is it pressure from the West---yes it is---
UA army acting officer: Yes, Starohnativka and Mariinka was shelled, with howitzers. https://twitter.com/SPaWN_ua/status/649609022279172096 …
NSDC stated no attacks yesterday????
Geoffrey Pyatt ✔ @GeoffPyatt
Cooperation with SMM monitoring a binding obligation under the new weapons withdrawal agreement. LPR not complying. https://twitter.com/osce_smm/status/649837974868377600 …
Daniel Baer ✔ @danbbaer
Russia's lamentations abt "truth" & "dialogue" wd be less laughable if they weren't currently occupying neighbor & lying about it.
Find difference in clothes ...
Above - Russian military in Syria
Below - "drivers" of humanitarian convoy to Donbass pic.twitter.com/cJkDRT5txn
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-02-2015 at 02:47 PM.
The MSM goes crazy when OSCE spots ONE TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS system
Ukrainian MoD said in March that separatists had used seven TOS-1 Buratino systems and that one of them had been destroyed by its forces.
seems MSM was not paying attention to social media which was reporting it daily----
Ukrainian military spox: "The Russian army has it [TOC-1A]. It was used against us in the area of Donetsk airport." http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/1...0RW0UP20151002
.@OSCE says TOC-1 were spotted in #Russia-occupied #Ukraine 4the 1st time, but in Aug 2014: https://twitter.com/RobPulseNews/sta...75855477825536 … https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/649906699411787776 …
It scares me sometimes that tweeps seem to know about Russian deployments inside and near Ukraine before NATO does. Hope I'm wrong
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-02-2015 at 04:48 PM.
Germany's Merkel---turning on the Ukraine now--trying to get the economic sanctions lifted for Herman business
Putin pushing for amnesty for all "DPR" & "LPR" leaders, Hollande supporting, unsurprising. https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/sta...05530719715329 …
Hollande says #Ukraine must introduce amnesty for all election participants in rebel-held DNR and LNR.
NOTICE---Putin and the West are virtually forcing the Ukraine into implementing all the political points in the Minsk WITHOUT a single military point being implement by Russia and her mercenaries--unilateral appeasement by the West in order to get back to business as usual.
NOT a single reciprocal demand being made on Russia---and that is again what negotiation???? Sounds like simply caving.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-02-2015 at 06:07 PM.
Crimean Tatars continue blockade of occupied peninsula, - VICE News. VIDEO http://en.censor.net.ua/n354585
There has been NO withdrawal of Russian army "LPR" tanks! 15km redepolyment to sheds to hide from drones ≠ withdrawn! pic.twitter.com/lqYe5VdXoU
Russian LPR forces withdraw 50 tanks *15km* from contact line "to new places of deployment" https://vk.com/dnrarmy?w=wall-51146063_5405 … pic.twitter.com/uGzDrWWeXn
It's not a "withdrawal", it's a "show of force" https://youtu.be/V0dRthT5YOI pic.twitter.com/0hgFMiZJpp
Russian army terms explained...
"Withdrawal" - We move our tanks 15km down the road from one base to another https://youtu.be/IAZ8hpsA5FU?t=2m6s …
Basurin says DPR won't withdraw tanks until 15days of "quiet" have passed. Today he lies "situation has detriorated" http://dnr-online.ru/za-proshedshie-...duard-basurin/ …
You can see where this is heading... "situation deteriorates" so Russian (DPR) army moves its withdrawal date 18 Oct to 19 Oct to 20 Oct etc
Russian Armed Forces (Southern MD) are using "withdrawal" to consolidate their hold on Donbas https://vk.com/rgdnr?w=wall-4743070_110848 … pic.twitter.com/sVjjrt4Ca3
OSCE observers discovered militants' heavy military equipment near #Mariupol. #Ukraine https://twitter.com/radiosvoboda/sta...45587091591172 …
Russia moves thermobaric warheads that INCINERATE targets into Ukraine while world's attent..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...ion-Syria.html … pic.twitter.com/6hZV4qVgwM
Hiding tanks in sheds. Combat training. New recruits. Consolidated command. Looks like Russian army plans on staying.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-03-2015 at 06:18 PM.
OSCE spots three AN-2 planes in occupied territory in Donetsk regionOriginally Posted by OUTLAW 09
http://www.unian.info/war/1141536-os...sk-region.html … pic.twitter.com/0pxiz4a1hS
AN-2 is the standard Spetsnaz insertion aircraft---
Greece #nationalists supported the recent action of #RightSector in #Odessa https://plus.google.com/104010886469...ts/C531ky882R7 … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/JOpyQpMoy0
Donetsk, outgoing shots by DNR are reported...
OSCE UAV was also jammed in several areas near Mariupol yesterday. pic.twitter.com/zJzz4Bw0zy
Also no electricity in #Severodonetsk and #Popasna. The explosion was at #Shchastya power plant maybe? Luhansk without power
Heavy explosion on the East of #Lugansk at about 21:00. All city immediately lost electric power. Mobile connection was lost for some time.
After all quiet day DNR's Basurin said that "today situation worsened" and couple hours later now outgoing shelling from #Donetsk.
What is clear that there was smth outgoing from #Donetsk and explosions in #Donetsk and #Makiivka.
Russian terrorists are shelling #Makiivka from #Donetsk!
Donetsk 22:05
"It was outgoing. Could be heard going towards north-west"
Donetsk 22:03
Railway station - second explosion already. Deaf, but powerful.
Dozens of reports.
And ruscists are yelling now that SAMs were used.
I've seen many reports like "smth flew over us", "like jet engine"...
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins (aka bellingcat)
Looks like my stupidest Syria trolls are joining forces with my stupidest Russia/Ukraine trolls for some pure strain trolling stupidity
Footage
Russian army column in occup.#Ukraine's #Luhansk oblast.
(calling themselves "LPR")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju_3TYGyDp4 … pic.twitter.com/Me6k701Tux
Meanwhile in Russian-occupied Eastern #Ukraine ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8RtWairIvI …
pic.twitter.com/duJyiqpX9o
RUAF Tu-95 with hardpoints for Kh-101 noted @ Ramenskoye 30SEP15. (C) A.Karpulev pic.twitter.com/A9GbYQJFwG
YES the Ukrainian government is basically lying about the ceasefire holding--in order to appease the West so they can get back to business as usual.
There has been a concentrated series of mercenary ambushes, booby trapped mines and mine ambushes with UAF loses climbing coupled with sudden fire attacks that last 5-10 minutes then stop usually at night.
This is starting to cause an issue with the mid level field commanders who are now openly complaining that the government is lying.
ATO press office: "In the ATO area yesterday the enemy fully adhered to the peace agreements".
BUT is not the truth as a number of UAF were killed and wounded from mine strikes-----
While the Human Rights Watch blasted the Ukraine for it's ALLEDGED use of cluster munitions which turned out to be massive Russian propaganda--WHEN now Syrian social media literally posts actual use of cluster munitions by the Russians--TOTAL SILENCE......why is that????
Why is @hrw completely silent on #Russia killing civilians using clusterbombs in #Syria?
http://www.hrw.org pic.twitter.com/8DHaFRYvJq
Evidence of Russia Shipments of Weapons and Munition to Ukrainian Occupied Areas
http://gur.mil.gov.ua/en/content/rus...t-ukraine.html … pic.twitter.com/jXpNZfQQbo
Odesa 2May suspect says Russia financed it all
http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1444010513 …
pic.twitter.com/HrRLmLGbtu
Reportedly plane traces over Donetsk. + reports of jet over Antratsyt http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-octob...tsk-today-also …
pic.twitter.com/IVX8pjwQYO
Russian Prosecutor General summons open source sleuth @RuslanLeviev, who traced Russian troops' presence in Ukraine & Syria. https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/sta...27213786157056 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-05-2015 at 04:23 PM.
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