Russian-backed forces in Ukraine appear to have capitalized on worldwide distraction over the war in Syria, sparking new violence that if left unaddressed will unravel a peacemaking effort in one of the most important East-versus-West hot spots.
After a tentative peace held for months, reports of violence in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine have spiked in the last two weeks, accounting for dozens of violations to the cease-fire agreements each day and increased casualties. Five soldiers died last week, the most in the previous two months.
It adds further tension to a region at the convergence of former Cold War foes, as Russia continues to back the anti-government separatist rebels in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while the U.S. and other Western powers bolster training and provide support for forces under the central government in Kiev.
Concerns abound that a heightened escalation could fully derail the peace process after almost two years of conflict, and ahead of elections scheduled for early next year.
Russia is involved in the recent spate of violence "without a doubt," says Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, head of all U.S. Army forces in Europe, citing Moscow's coordination of rebel command and control, and noting that it provides them with ammunition and other supplies.
"We're puzzled as well," Hodges says. "It just doesn't make sense to me why they would put at risk right now when things are going so smoothly, and why they would risk the West beginning to think, 'OK, this is going to work, maybe they can lift the sanctions.'"
The fighting has undone stability along the Ukraine-Russian border that is supposed to be monitored by observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, Hodges says, making it more difficult to detect what could be coming across from Russia.
"That border for all intents and purposes is wide open," he says.
Adding to the mystery is the disappearance of thousands of Russian troops from the tens of thousands who remain there. Hodges says as many as 10 battalions-worth of Russian forces – between 5,000 and 6,000 troops – have left the area, leaving behind their heavy equipment and the other infrastructure most difficult to reposition.
Some see the surge in Russian-backed violence and Moscow's repositioning of its troops as a consequence of its deployment to Syria. Since sending fighter jets and support troops to a new forward base in Syria's port city of Latakia last month, Russia has found itself increasingly drawn into the messy and complex fighting in that country. It claims to contribute to the separate U.S.-led effort to defeat the Islamic State group, but so far has focused much of its attention attacking Syrian rebels and bolstering the regime of President Bashar Assad, a historic patron. Managing these maneuvers, maintaining its opposition to the Ukrainian central government and fielding international outrage may have proven more than Russia's heavily sanctioned resources can accommodate.
Or perhaps Western focus on Syria has led Russian President Vladimir Putin to believe he can act with relative impunity in Ukraine.
"This is a diversionary maneuver," says Anders Aslund, a former Swedish diplomat to Geneva, Poland and Moscow, now with the Atlantic Council's Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center. "Russians like small and victorious wars, as Putin has done repeatedly. The problem with the war in Donbass is it is neither small nor victorious, and it is just a stalemate. One way of breaking the stalemate is to do something else.
"By bombing Syria, Russia forces itself to be discussed by the Western powers," Aslund says. "It matters to Putin a lot that he looks like a star internationally."
More recently, Moscow conceded that a bomb, likely planted by an affiliate of the Islamic State group, brought down a Russian airliner over Egypt last month, forcing Moscow to deepen its involvement in Syria. A coordinated and sophisticated series of attacks in Paris on Nov. 14 elevated the international urgency to bring Putin into a unified response to fight the extremist network. Speculation now arises that Putin's price for cooperation could be the West's relaxing its insistence that Russia give up Crimea and other parts of Ukraine from its control.
In this Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015, file photo provided by Russian Emergency Situations Ministry, Egyptian Military on cars approach a plane's tail at the wreckage of a passenger jet bound for St. Petersburg in Russia that crashed in Hassana, Egypt. The Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt was brought down by a homemade bomb placed on board in a "terrorist" act, the head of Russia's FSB security service told President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015.
Indeed, Putin adopted a more conciliatory tone at the G20 summit in Turkey this week, helping to lead the discussion on Syria and even moving toward some agreement with the U.S. on finding a political solution to the crisis.
Russia also may not have any particular aim in supporting a surge in rebel violence in Ukraine, Aslund adds, but rather sees it as the latest continuation of its attempts to destabilize the central government in Kiev and undercut upcoming elections in the new year. Moscow hopes the leadership of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will fail, and a more friendly regime will come into power.
Others believe Russia has nothing to do with the uptick in Ukrainian rebel violence, particularly amid Hodges' reports that Moscow is recalling its troops.
"I don't buy this is coming from Moscow, it's coming much more from the local factors," says Balazs Jarabik, a regional analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Russians want for the elections to take place in the new year, but many Ukrainians do not, he says, over concerns he supports that they won't be credible. Russia has genuinely reduced its focus on Ukraine amid its separate war in Syria, Jarabik adds, though it maintains as many as 50,000 troops near the border as a symbol of support.
The uptick in violence likely originated from unrest among the rebels factions themselves.
"Winter is coming," Jarabik says. "And the Donbass rebel leadership has no money."
"There's a certain quality of life for the people who stayed, and that, I do believe, is the reason why they've started shooting their guns. It's a reminder mostly to Moscow that 'We're still here. You're focused on Syria, and we're still here. We need your money, we need your attention, we need your support.'"
Perhaps most troubling is what the violence means for both sides: Each has confirmed they won't back down until the other abides by the accords agreed to in Minsk, which begin with a cease-fire that evolves into a full withdrawal of weapons.
That peace process, at least for now, is derailed.
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
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