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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #1021
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    15:30 #Torez @PloxShakhtar 1 Ural & BTR w/troops on armour escorted by 2 cars w/RUS number plates tow/#Shakhtarsk

    In ground combat today---
    Dokuchaevsk @whicard5 "Yday's RUS casualties: 5 KIA, 2 WIA"

    Huh? DPR "Ministry of Defence" denies desertion of soldiers from Marinka position (as claimed by Col Galushko, ATO) https://vk.com/dnrarmy?w=wall-51146063_4587

    Donetsk, Ilyicha Ave today around noon, armoured vehicles track traces on image #4 @DoneckiiPatriot pic.twitter.com/2bowOTYuNu

    Interesting (maybe). The VK_com account of DPR "Republican Guard" 'has been suspended due to a violation of VK Terms of Service'

  2. #1022
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    http://tass.ru/en/world/810608

    Ukraine amasses up to 7,000 troops on border with Transdniestria — republic leader

    World
    July 24, 17:34 UTC+3

    Earlier, the head of the Ukrainian State Border Service said that Russia’s military threat was coming from Transdniestria]

    MOSCOW, July 24. /TASS/. Ukraine concentrates its armed forces and equips firing points on the border with Transdniestria, from 5 to 7 thousand troops are currently deployed there, head of the unrecognized Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic Yevgeny Shevchuk told the Rossiya 24 TV channel on Friday.

    "After the events in Ukraine, we feel the pressure of some negative factors. One of them is the concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the National Guard, reinforcement and expansion in the number of Ukrainian frontier guards along the border, additional equipment of engineering constructions, the digging of trenches… Some firing points are equipped along the border, and substantial amounts of troops are being concentrated - according to our estimates, from 5 to 7 thousand are deployed in close proximity to the border with Transdniestria," he said.

    On May 21, 2015, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada denounced the agreement with Russia on transit of the Russian military personnel and cargo via Ukraine’s territory, and on May 29 head of the Ukrainian State Border Service Viktor Nazarenko told Ukraine’s Channel Five that Russia’s military threat was coming from Transdniestria.

  3. #1023
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    Appears the withdrawal of heavy weapons under Minsk 2 is a failure, the 30km buffer zone and withdrawal of 100mm and lower weapons is not working either.

    HOW else can one explain shellings by heavy weapons and tanks on Ukrainian positions.

    18:35 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Terrible blasts, perhaps impacts on the village

    20:13 #Horlivka @Soniyka_777 [As far as] humanitarian convoy arrived, booms [are now heard] in #Mayorsk-#Mykytivka directions

  4. #1024
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Yesterday militants attacked positions of Ukrainian troops 78 times. As of 06:00 today, attacks continue - ATOhttps://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...54&__tn__=%2As

    Newly appointed Head of #Luhansk reg/ admin Tuka: 2 vehicles w/ smuggled goods were stopped near delimitation line http://censor.net.ua/blogs/742/otchety_quotletuchekquot

    Echelon of military Kamaz trucks near the border of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/ps4VP3ovPT http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/24-july...ear-the-border

    Kuzminka: Self-contained Russian army tactical group with enough fuel bowsers for an offensive/long-distance pic.twitter.com/1DwZ8Z3Mji

    Kuzminka: Russian motor rifle (mechanised infantry) and tank tactical group with SPG/MLRS artillery support pic.twitter.com/sSkioWVwRn

    Russian Army base at Kuzminka (Vodino/Golovinka), Rostov region 6 July 2015 PHOTOS
    http://ru.tsn.ua/foto/otdyh-otpuskni...iy-456176.html
    http://reviewnews.net/ukraine-1/3641...ranits-ukrainy

    Ready to roll. Russian Army base at Kuzminka (Vodino/Golovinka), Rostov region (55km from Ukraine border) 6 July pic.twitter.com/rNqZ11gP1y
    2nd Guards Motor Rifle 'Taman' Div and 4th Guards 'Kantemir' Tank Div received "Tornado-G" MLRS to replace Grad BM-21 http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/2136010

  5. #1025
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    NEW POST: @EliotHiggins on using Google Earth, Yandex, Echosec and Yomapic for verification https://medium.com/1st-draft/searchi...n-89d960bb8fba … pic.twitter.com/aQu1tcxZti

    Having vandalized #OSCE cars ruscists achieved their goal in #Donetsk. Less OSCE, less RUS activity recorded. https://twitter.com/UkrWatchTower/st...46344351817729

    The OSCE SMM is to limit activity in Donetsk because of pressure on observers - Hug
    http://112.ua/ato/missiya-obse-ogran...ag-247515.html

    It just so happened that pro-Kremlin media - @Ruptly, were there to film it all
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj8if12FrDs

    BBC News - Why would Russia deploy bombers [Tu-22M3] in Crimea? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33649298 … via @BBCrussia 24 Jul

    About 200 Ukrainians still held hostage by Russian-separatist forces - advisor to SBU chief http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ef-394221.html … via Kyiv Post 24 Jul

    Anyone knows when Kredo-M1 entered service? other users apart from Russian Armed Forces? http://www.almaz-antey.ru/en/catalog...1219/1242/1331 … pic.twitter.com/vSVO5O90j8

    There are no "representatives" of Donbas right now (& Russia & her proxies are obstructing elections to get some) http://osce.usmission.gov/mobile/jul...to_russia.html

    Criminal group behind 1 bn $ Moldovan theft linked to the 20 bn Russian Laundromat™
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...theft-moldova/ … via @OCCRP and @bellingcat

    Another Russian spy drone shot down in east Ukraine (Video)
    http://uatoday.tv/news/another-russi...eo-461708.html … pic.twitter.com/14b5IeAJBG
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 08:19 PM.

  6. #1026
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    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/526147.html

    Russian Official Calls for Obligations to International Law to be Struck from Constitution

    By Anna Dolgov
    Jul. 24 2015 13:53

    The head of Russia's Investigative Committee has called for scrapping from the country's Constitution all mentions of adherence to international law, according to an interview with official government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta.

    The proposal by Alexander Bastrykin, which was part of an interview published by Rossiiskaya Gazeta on Thursday follows a Constitutional Court decision earlier this month ruling that Moscow can refuse to comply with European Court of Human Rights judgments.

    Bastrykin praised the court's decision, but said the country needed to take it further.

    Without a doubt, it is necessary to eliminate from the Constitution the provisions according to which the widely accepted principles and norms of international law are an inalienable part of the legal system of the Russian Federation," Bastrykin, a lawyer by training, was quoted as saying.

    Article 15 of the Russian Constitution reads that the "widely accepted principles and norms of international law and the international agreements of the Russian Federation are a component part of its legal system."

    The article also says that in case of contradictions between Russia's international agreements and domestic laws, international agreements take precedence.

    The article has been the object of Bastrykin's ire for months. He called it "legal sabotage" during a meeting with Investigative Committee officials in February, saying it should be abolished, Kommersant reported at that time.

    The ruling by the Constitutional Court on the European Court of Human Rights was a step toward measures that Bastrykin has been advocating.

    In its July 14 decision, the court ruled that "in exceptional cases, Russia can diverge from fulfilling the obligations imposed upon it if such deviation is the only possible way to avoid violating fundamental constitutional principles."

    "The European Convention on Human Rights and the legal positions taken by the [European Court] based on [the convention], cannot undermine [Russia's] Constitution, which takes priority," the court said in a statement.

    The Constitutional Court's decision was seen as opening the way for Moscow to avoid paying compensation to former shareholders of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's defunct Yukos oil company. The European court ruled last year that the handling of Yukos assets violated its shareholders' rights, and ordered Moscow to pay compensation to them.


    Bastrykin told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that Russia needs to "continue and expand" the Constitutional Court's decision to avoid "legal collisions," adding that the Constitution — adopted in 1993 — may be due for a thorough overhaul.

    "Beside the provisions on the priority of international law, an array of other constitutional provisions could be corrected, considering the more than 20-year service of our Constitution," Bastrykin was quoted as saying. He did not elaborate on what provisions he thought should be changed.

    The issue of Russia's abidance by international law and treaties has repeatedly been called into question since Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014. Western governments and Kiev have accused Russia of violating international law and agreements with Ukraine, including the 1994 Budapest Memorandum — which reaffirmed Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for the country agreeing to give up nuclear weapons — and the 1997 Friendship Treaty between Russia and Ukraine.

  7. #1027
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    Heavy shellings and ground attacks this evening—so much for all the hype from Russia about implementing Minsk 2 and so much for US, France and German appeasement “to save Putin’s face”

    This is the direct result of their unilateral moves with no reciprocal demands on Russia.

    22:00 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Heavy volleys and blasts nearby

    Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    21:20 Quiet
    21:21 Just wrote and a boom at once

    21:23 #Novhorodske @LeeZernoganja [Recently] a couple of projectiles hit rails, couple more at old dachas.

    20:59 #Alchevsk @protiv_voiny What is that rumbling? Drills?

    21:19 #Dzerzhynsky @blessmaster Lots of small arms fire, mortars in #Shumy/Yuzhna mine direction

    20:52 #Zalizne (#Novhorodske) @LeeZernoganja My village was shelled, several impacts, like direct fire. Smoke plumes

    20:18 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] And again few heavy machine gun bursts

    20:56 #Zalizne (part of #Novhorodske) @LeeZernoganja Something on fire pic.twitter.com/vdmQheBfEr

    20:46 #Mariupol @p251977 Who has heard boom?
    20:51 @ukrmarik I thought it seemed to me

    22:09 #Volnovakha @lapa545 Strong booms somewhere. Dogs are barking, hard to get where, I guess north/northeast

    22:16 #Dokuchaevsk @goky4_ykpauHa Also audible in #Dokuchaevsk

    22:14 #Volnovakha @solomazheka Rumble for about 20min in the east, approx #Starohnativka, ongoing battle, heavy [arty]

    22:22 @solomazheka Stir in #Volnovakha or sort of [road police] interception oper'n, all cars are checked, never been before

    22:33 #Dzerzhynsk @dimetros7776 Impacts on houses on Yuzhna St, incoming were fr/#Horlivka direction, UKR almost didn't reply
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 07:45 PM.

  8. #1028
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Heavy shellings and ground attacks this evening—so much for all the hype from Russia about implementing Minsk 2 and so much for US, France and German appeasement “to save Putin’s face”

    This is the direct result of their unilateral moves with no reciprocal demands on Russia.

    22:00 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Heavy volleys and blasts nearby

    Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    21:20 Quiet
    21:21 Just wrote and a boom at once

    21:23 #Novhorodske @LeeZernoganja [Recently] a couple of projectiles hit rails, couple more at old dachas.

    20:59 #Alchevsk @protiv_voiny What is that rumbling? Drills?

    21:19 #Dzerzhynsky @blessmaster Lots of small arms fire, mortars in #Shumy/Yuzhna mine direction

    20:52 #Zalizne (#Novhorodske) @LeeZernoganja My village was shelled, several impacts, like direct fire. Smoke plumes

    20:18 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] And again few heavy machine gun bursts

    20:56 #Zalizne (part of #Novhorodske) @LeeZernoganja Something on fire pic.twitter.com/vdmQheBfEr

    20:46 #Mariupol @p251977 Who has heard boom?
    20:51 @ukrmarik I thought it seemed to me

    22:09 #Volnovakha @lapa545 Strong booms somewhere. Dogs are barking, hard to get where, I guess north/northeast

    22:16 #Dokuchaevsk @goky4_ykpauHa Also audible in #Dokuchaevsk

    22:14 #Volnovakha @solomazheka Rumble for about 20min in the east, approx #Starohnativka, ongoing battle, heavy [arty]

    22:22 @solomazheka Stir in #Volnovakha or sort of [road police] interception oper'n, all cars are checked, never been before

    22:33 #Dzerzhynsk @dimetros7776 Impacts on houses on Yuzhna St, incoming were fr/#Horlivka direction, UKR almost didn't reply
    OSCE monitors cannot confirm arms withdrawal by Russian-separatist forces http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...es-394242.html

    23:09 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Lull
    Lull before next shellings--resupplying

    23:03 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    22:30 Skirmishes on the front line don't cease
    22:55 Ongoing shooting


    Starohnativka: scary explosions, perhaps shell landings in a village. https://twitter.com/Staroignatievca/...03811861000193

    Hot spots atm: Horlivka, Krasnogorivka, Starohnativka

    .@lisova1992 It has been reported on #Rovenki militants KIA near #Stanytsia_Luhanska

    Russian artillery barrage near #Starohnativka (W of Bila Kamyanka, E of Volnovakha), Donetsk region https://www.google.ie/maps/place/Sta...caefec39e495c0 … via @loogunda

    intensive machineguns in Krasnogorovka https://twitter.com/arthurnkua/statu...69361513611265

    22:52 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Hell again, massive explosions, the sky is flashing

    22:41 #Donetsk @JRijJyY08AkRzL8 We can hear you, burst wave reaches us, cheer up! https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/624660986147024896

    Results of shelling by militants of Novhorodsʹke (July 24)Video here >https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...81&__tn__=%2As … pic.twitter.com/fIOuTE4C8V

    Ukraine soldier killed in clashes following peace talks http://f24.my/1Or3FOG pic.twitter.com/o01qwGFAzi

    BBC journalist at Donetsk airport: "This is what Armageddon feels like"
    http://www.unian.info/war/1104723-bb...eels-like.html … pic.twitter.com/6ptuJjf1OQ
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 08:16 PM.

  9. #1029
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    We witnessed the inititation ceremony that turns ragtag rebels into cossacks Ukraine https://news.vice.com/article/we-wit...-into-cossacks … via @vicenews

    Defender of Ukraine on guard.
    via @ukatayka777
    pic.twitter.com/PhQPBtYAAW

    If I were Putin I would be ditching anything to do with the Donbass—the Rubel is tracking parallel to the price of oil and that is falling badly and will fall into the 30-40 USD ranges in the next week or two and remain there for a long while as Iranian oil slowly comes into the market and the USD is growing stronger daily.

    WTI Crude Oil: $48.00 ��
    Brent Crude Oil: $54.40 ��
    USD=RUB: $1 = 58.5220 ��


    Shoplifting in Russia is soaring as the economy crumbles ;( https://twitter.com/WBStevens/status/624574303225425920

    U.S. troops to train regular Ukrainian military troops: State Department http://reut.rs/1DCJurh

    Why @ICRC as “guardian” of international humanitarian law is ignoring its statutory duties to declare RU involvement? pic.twitter.com/GBbNisHsOY
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 08:50 PM.

  10. #1030
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    So much for Russian mercenaries "pulling back their tanks from the front lines"

    23:15 #Horlivka #Mykytivka @mihailovith Outgoing, they sound like tank shots

    23:35 #Komsomolske @Ukr_Che Hard to get where from and to, incoming or outgoing, but very loud and massive booms

    So, the OSCE now discusses not if there are ceasefire violations or not, but "the level of ceasefire violations" http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/1743...oscelatestnews

    23:25 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Again sporadic shooting

    23:20 #Komsomolske @lukliketramp Both incoming and outgoing, started 10 min ago.

    23:20 #Komsomolske @lukliketramp Behind the kettles something's on fire (who can affirm?), flashes behind the waterworks

    Overview: Russian 'hybrid' volunteer units (DPR/LPR) are training hard, rotating troops at front line positions, calibrating weapons etc.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 08:46 PM.

  11. #1031
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    Appears that the US/Obama is in fact throwing the Ukraine under the bus for Russian assistance in Iran and Syria---by making unilateral moves with no reciprocal demands on Russia.

    Basically a new Munch 1938 in the name of "legacy".

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.VbKl2OoVhMs

    Obama Administration Undercutting Ukraine’s Position in the Minsk Armistice Negotiations

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 139

    July 24, 2015 02:00 PM

    By: Vladimir Socor

    Urged by US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland in Kyiv last week, Ukraine took a first step toward legalizing the secessionist authorities in the country’s constitution (see EDM, July 20). Concurrently, US Vice President Joseph Biden asked Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to accept local elections being held and possibly validated in the secessionist territory (Ukrinform, White House press release, July 17). In the Contact Group, in Minsk this week, Ukraine faced similar pressure to legitimize the Donetsk and Luhansk authorities through local elections there (UNIAN, July 22).

    Russia, Western Europe generally, and the Barack Obama administration each seem to favor “freezing” this conflict as fast as possible, on terms acceptable to Russia, since these are the only terms presently available. But there are two possible ways of freezing this conflict.

    One way, the Russian “classical,” is seen with local variations in Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Karabakh and Crimea. There, the secessionist authorities receive no international legitimacy, no status, no subsidies from the aggressed country, and no chance to subvert the latter’s political system.

    The other way to freeze is Russia’s latest innovation, using Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine’s east. This kind of freeze—still not resolving the conflict—would legalize the secessionist authorities and re-insert their entities into Ukraine’s political system, with prerogatives that would ensure instability, Russian influence and even Ukrainian subsidies to the legalized secessionist authorities.

    The Obama administration is now pushing for the second version, the one even more detrimental to Ukraine. The United States’ push tips the balance decisively. Berlin and Paris failed on their own to persuade Kyiv to move in that direction, but Washington apparently wields stronger leverage.

    The White House has reordered its policy priorities toward working with Russia on the Middle East, correspondingly becoming more accommodating to Russia’s position on implementing the Minsk armistice in Ukraine. From May 12 (Secretary of State John Kerry’s overture to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi) to July 14 (signing of the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program), the rapprochement with Russia looks rewarding to the Obama administration. The latter now hopes for Russia’s “help” on Syria; while the European Union feels that it “needs” Russia on Libya. With or without direct tradeoffs over Ukraine, as Lilya Shevtsova observes, Putin has put Washington “on the debtor’s roll” (Kasparov.ru, July 16).


    The administration portrays Russia again as a partner, a difficult but necessary, indeed “indispensable” partner to help “jointly resolve” common problems. It no longer describes Russia as “isolated,” nor as “merely” a regional power. The White House treats Putin as a desirable interlocutor again. Presidents Obama and Putin have conducted two long, detailed telephone conversations focusing on the Middle East. In their June 25/26 conversation, Obama did mention tangentially that Russia ought to remove its forces from Ukraine’s territory. Putin parried, as usual, that Russia has no forces in Ukraine, hence nothing to withdraw. In the July 15 Obama-Putin conversation, Ukraine was left unmentioned (White House and Kremlin readouts, cited by Interfax and RFE/RL, respectively, July 16).

    Washington and Moscow have established an unprecedented, bilateral format of negotiations on Ukraine, but in which Ukraine is not represented. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Grigory Karasin and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland are in charge of this channel. The United States, as leading Western power, had recused itself from both of the existing formats, namely the Minsk Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe—OSCE) and the Normandy Quartet (Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine, where Ukraine is often isolated but at least represented). Kerry and Russia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov had discussed Ukraine intermittently and inconsistently, never in a dedicated “format.”

    Kerry proposed a bilateral US-Russia channel in Sochi (see above). In that location, fronting on the Russian-occupied Abkhazia on one side and on Russian-annexed Crimea on the other side, Kerry mentioned neither. Instead, taking his hosts’ bait at the news conference, Kerry warned Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko preemptively, lest he breaches the armistice (State.gov, May 12).

    Putin readily agreed with Kerry’s proposal on the Nuland-Karasin channel. This bilateral format excludes Ukraine while operating without publicity, below the principals’ level. Second, it equalizes Russia with the US in a superior league, above the European powers, while blindsiding these (Berlin in particular). Third, it enables Moscow to play this channel off against the “European” Normandy Quartet. Fourth, and of determinant significance, Moscow insists that the US alone could (if it only would) pressure Ukraine into concessions to Russia, e.g., by changing Ukraine’s constitution and legitimizing the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities.

    Nuland and Karasin met several times during May and June on an exploratory basis. The chief of Russia’s presidential administration, Sergei Ivanov, declared the bilateral Russia-US format to be more effective than the Normandy format (Rossiya 1 TV, June 20). In that vein, Lavrov urged Kerry “to influence Ukraine to establish a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Luhansk, which is key to the implementation of the Minsk agreements” (Interfax, July 1).

    On June 25/26, Putin called Obama to discuss some details of “helping” the United States in the Middle East (see above). The Nuland-Karasin channel was fully activated as a direct by-product of that telephone call. On July 2, Nuland told a Russian interviewer that Kerry had proposed, and Putin agreed, on the Nuland-Karasin channel “to help facilitate the implementation of the Minsk agreements” (Ekho Moskvy, July 3).

    The US, however, had never been a party to the Minsk Two document (February 12), nor to the accompanying declaration by the Normandy group, which pledged to facilitate that document’s implementation. In early July, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande pressured the Ukrainian leaders to meet Russia’s main current demand, namely to start legalizing the secessionist authorities in Ukraine’s constitution (see EDM, July 9, 10). They failed momentarily; but, within days, Nuland scored a first success where Merkel and Hollande had failed (see EDM, July 20).

    Washington had retained flexibility by keeping its distance from the deeply flawed Minsk process. The US, with commendable insistence, calls on Russia to remove its forces from Ukraine’s territory, citing the Minsk armistice, although that document stipulates nothing about Russia. The US had not, until now, asked Kyiv to legalize the secessionist authorities in Ukraine’s constitution, or to accept secessionist local “elections” in that territory. But Nuland’s visit to Kyiv and Biden’s phone call from Washington (see above) have shifted that position brusquely (see accompanying article).
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 09:04 PM.

  12. #1032
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    Has Obama committed the ultimate Munich 1938 appeasement by conducting unilateral moves without demanding reciprocal Russian moves all in the name of his “legacy”.

    Ukraine Accepts Constitutional Amendment to Russia’s Advantage at US Insistence

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 139

    July 24, 2015 03:35 PM

    By: Vladimir Socor

    The international context of negotiations to implement the Minsk armistice is changing in Russia’s favor. As the leading Western power, the Barack Obama administration effectively pressures Ukraine to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities in the constitution and through elections. This would satisfy Russia’s main demands at this stage (with more demands awaiting).

    German chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande recently failed to pressure Kyiv into those concessions to Russia (see EDM, July 9, 10). From lower hierarchical rungs, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Vice President Joseph Biden are pressuring Ukraine more successfully, since US leverage on Kyiv is stronger and tips the balance (see accompanying article).

    Increasingly, the object of negotiations is Ukraine’s own constitution—namely, accommodating Russia’s demands to insert its Donetsk-Luhansk proxies into Ukraine’s political system. The focus on Ukraine’s constitution means that Ukraine itself, instead of Russia’s aggression, becomes the object of negotiations. In that sense, the diplomatic process is rapidly turning into negotiations “on,” and potentially “over,” Ukraine.

    Western powers now hold Ukraine its to constitutional “obligations”—the new buzzword—vis-ŕ-vis Russia, under the Minsk Two agreement (February 12); although this is no “agreement” but a diktat and not a valid source of Ukrainian “obligations.” Wiggling out of onerous obligations is a standard diplomatic practice; but Western diplomacy does not support Ukraine to wiggle out from political “obligations” to the Kremlin’s Minsk Diktat.

    No Western power had ever held Georgia, Moldova or other aggressed countries to political (let alone constitutional) “obligations” toward Moscow or Moscow’s proxies. Ukraine is now experiencing this Western pressure for the first time. While this message is not surprising from Berlin, and certainly not shocking from Paris, it is only Washington that can enforce those “obligations” on Ukraine
    .

    Assistant Secretary Nuland acted as enforcer during her July 15–16 visit to Kyiv. She sounded the “obligations” buzzword more loudly and more frequently than any Western diplomat yet (America House Kyiv news release, Ukrinform, UNIAN, Ukraine Media Crisis Center, July 15–17). Nuland prevailed on President Petro Poroshenko and parliamentary leaders to approve a constitutional amendment that, if confirmed in subsequent votes, would insert Russia’s armed proxies from Donetsk and Luhansk as legitimate players in Ukraine’s political system (see EDM, July 20).

    From the Obama White House’s domestic political perspective, Nuland was ideally suited for such enforcement. As the most forward-leaning official of this administration on Ukraine, she enjoys unparalleled confidence in Congress, specifically on Ukraine policy. In Kyiv, it seemed shocking that Nuland of all possible emissaries should demand constitutional concessions to Russia at Ukraine’s expense. But she apparently had her marching orders from the top. That a “mere” US assistant secretary should force the Ukrainian president’s hand, meanwhile, seems normal in Kyiv, reflecting US influence there and Ukrainian reliance on the United States.

    Moscow had publicly insisted all along that the US alone holds the leverage to pressure Kyiv into concessions. The Kremlin readily accepted the US proposal to create the US-Russia channel of Nuland and her Russian counterpart, Grigory Karasin, for bilateral handling of Ukrainian matters, without Ukraine and without publicity. This channel is a direct by-product of the Obama White House’s rapprochement with Russia over the Middle East. As the rapprochement advanced closer to fruition over Iran, the Nuland-Karasin channel became increasingly active. Following their meeting in Zurich, on July 9, Karasin declared: “We have agreed to meet periodically in order to exert a constructive influence on Kyiv, to facilitate the fulfillment of these [Minsk] agreements, by Kyiv in the first place. Washington has great influence; we hope that our contacts will allow us to use this influence” (Interfax, RIA Novosti, July 10).

    According to Russian media, citing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Karasin and Nuland conferred by telephone on July 20 and 22, about “practical matters regarding the constitutional reform in Ukraine.” This was a follow-up to Nuland’s intercession with Kyiv to approve the constitutional amendment that would legalize the secessionist authorities. In this follow-up, Karasin “insisted on a start to direct dialogue between the representatives of Kyiv and those of Donetsk and Luhansk” (Interfax, July 20, 22). While Moscow offers such tidbits on the Karasin-Nuland channel, Washington does not comment—for instance, about Moscow’s assertion that Ukraine’s constitution has become an object of informal US-Russia talks.

    Speculation is rife in Kyiv that the Obama administration might short-change Ukraine as a quid-pro-quo for Russia’s “help” (current and prospective) on the Middle East. Asked about this in Kyiv, Nuland replied: “It is offensive to suggest that the US does tradeoffs. The US never trades one thing for another thing in international relations” (Ukrinform, Zerkalo Nedeli, July 16). It may well be that no deal exists, at least not directly; and the indignant rejoinder was perhaps fully sincere. But, according to Serhiy Tolstov of the Kyiv Institute of Political Analysis, the rejoinder in that form and that context “sounded ridiculous to any graduate from international relations courses” (17-07-FP-info, accessed July 24).

    President Poroshenko tried very hard, against his own wisdom, to line up the governing coalition behind this constitutional amendment. He resorted to the ultimate argument, far beyond the intrinsic merits of the case: “Do not create with your own hands a situation that would leave Ukraine facing the aggressor one on one” (Ukrinform, July 16). Had Poroshenko been threatened with loss of Western support? Regardless, some deputies from this camp declined to vote for the constitutional amendment, or voted against it, bucking coalition discipline. Conversely, the parliamentary factions that originate in the former Party of Regions genuinely approved this constitutional amendment. The amendment passed thanks to the former Party of Regions deputies; and even so, far short of the constitutional majority that will be required in the final reading.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 09:12 PM.

  13. #1033
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    So much for Russian mercenaries "pulling back their tanks from the front lines"

    23:15 #Horlivka #Mykytivka @mihailovith Outgoing, they sound like tank shots

    23:35 #Komsomolske @Ukr_Che Hard to get where from and to, incoming or outgoing, but very loud and massive booms

    So, the OSCE now discusses not if there are ceasefire violations or not, but "the level of ceasefire violations" http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/1743...oscelatestnews

    23:25 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Again sporadic shooting

    23:20 #Komsomolske @lukliketramp Both incoming and outgoing, started 10 min ago.

    23:20 #Komsomolske @lukliketramp Behind the kettles something's on fire (who can affirm?), flashes behind the waterworks

    Overview: Russian 'hybrid' volunteer units (DPR/LPR) are training hard, rotating troops at front line positions, calibrating weapons etc.
    We are concerned by about Russian artillery actvity east of Volnovakha (ie Komsomolske, Starohnativka

    00:20 #Komsomolske @lukliketramp I thought it went quiet, but no. It's stable [=shelling again]

    17:07 #Dokuchaevsk @whicard5 In town outskirts RUS troops rotation is finished, also more ammo delivered and hardware swapped
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 09:42 PM.

  14. #1034
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    If Russia blocks UN Security Council tribunal for MH17 downing, use Council of Europe: no veto http://bit.ly/1HXnMAa pic.twitter.com/gi9LFgHz0X

    Russia likely to veto UN vote on MH17 http://www.3news.co.nz/world/russia-...RxXYFI.twitter
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-24-2015 at 09:37 PM.

  15. #1035
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Appears that the US/Obama is in fact throwing the Ukraine under the bus for Russian assistance in Iran and Syria---by making unilateral moves with no reciprocal demands on Russia.

    Basically a new Munch 1938 in the name of "legacy".

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.VbKl2OoVhMs

    Obama Administration Undercutting Ukraine’s Position in the Minsk Armistice Negotiations

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 139

    July 24, 2015 02:00 PM

    By: Vladimir Socor
    Biden and Nuland tag teaming the Ukraine in the name of appeasement for a proPutin Ukrainian settlement and that is called “US Foreign Policy”??????

    What happened to the US signature on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum????

    Vice President Joe Biden spoke today with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko: pic.twitter.com/4IQIVpZNW5

  16. #1036
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Appears that the US/Obama is in fact throwing the Ukraine under the bus for Russian assistance in Iran and Syria---by making unilateral moves with no reciprocal demands on Russia.

    Basically a new Munch 1938 in the name of "legacy".

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.VbKl2OoVhMs

    Obama Administration Undercutting Ukraine’s Position in the Minsk Armistice Negotiations

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 139

    July 24, 2015 02:00 PM

    By: Vladimir Socor
    So while Obama is full appeasement mode and is not demanding that Putin implement anything in Minsk 2 this the reality on the ground in eastern Ukraine--pay close attention to the last paragraph and ask the question does this look like a Putin who is trying to "freeze" or a Putin willing to use force to acquire the entire Donbas under his control??

    http://maidantranslations.com/2015/0...freesavchenko/

    Dmitry Tymchuk: Military update 7.24

    Posted on July 24, 2015 by chervonaruta

    Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

    Operational data from Information Resistance:

    In addition to “traditional” shelling with 120-mm mortars as well as 122-mm and 152-mm artillery, Russian-terrorist forces in Donbas have stepped up the use of armored vehicles and air reconnaissance (at least 10 UAV flights recorded) during the past twenty-four hours. Active operations by “small groups” of militants in the “greenery” have not ceased, while terrorist sabotage and reconnaissance groups and raiding parties are active across the whole of the Luhansk sector (especially along the Severskyi Donets river).

    The situation has intensified the most in the Donetsk and Horlivka areas, where the bulk of the shelling and armed provocations by militants occurred in the past day. In addition to the sector from Mar’inka to the northwestern outskirts of Horlivka, another area of especially heightened enemy activity consisted of the settlements of Svitlodarsk, Luhanske and Mironovskyi.

    So, in the past twenty-four hours, militants repeatedly carried out fire strikes using 122 mm and 152 mm artillery in the Shyroka Balka – Novhorodske area. The enemy opened fire with 82 mm and 120 mm mortars on the advanced positions of Ukrainian troops from Ozeryanivka and the eastern shore of the Horlivske reservoir, at the same time as terrorists made active use of AGS-17 automatic grenade launchers along the demarcation line close to Leninske – Shumy.

    Near the Donetsk airport and the settlement of Opytne, militants used several armored groups (each with 5-6 AFVs–armored fighting vehicles – IFVs–infantry fighting vehicles or APCs–armored personnel carriers). These armored groups opened intensive fire from their on-board weapons on the advanced positions of Ukrainian troops. The militants used 122 mm artillery to provide cover fire for their armored vehicles as the latter took firing positions. Firing was by two batteries of D-30 howitzers – one from the vicinity of Spartak, the other – from beyond the settlement of Vesele, and south of Stratonavtiv Street (Donetsk city).

    Militants shelled the southern suburbs of Avdiivka, Opytne and Pisky using 120 mm mortars.

    In the area of Mar’inka, Krasnohorivka and Lozove, the movements of small terrorist infantry groups, under cover of the “greenery,” were recorded. In particular, the enemy tried to approach the ATO forces’ positions in order to scout out the front edge of the Ukrainian troops. These groups opened small arms fire randomly to provoke retaliatory fire from ATO forces and in this way identify their firing positions.

    Shelling from 82 mm mortars was recorded near the settlement of Luhanske. An enemy armored group was also operating in this area – fire strikes from tank guns were directed at the advanced ATO forces’ positions.

    In the direction of Alchevsk, a militants’ mortar group (six 82 mm mortars and three 120 mm mortars) kept shelling the positions of ATO forces near the settlement of Krymske.

    Armed clashes among the “greenery” were recorded in the Zolote, Orikhove, Vesela Hora and Shchastya sector and near the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska. Near the settlement of Shchastya, the enemy used AGS-17 grenade launchers several times.

    In the coastal direction (near Shyrokyne and east of Hnutove), militants operating as infantry groups opened fire several times using small arms.

    The number of militant troops and armored vehicles continue to grow south of Donetsk and towards the coast. A manoeuvring of part of the Russian-terrorist troops and their materiel was recorded towards the Kulykove–Shevchenko–Kozatske sector from the Komsomolske–Starobesheve district. At least two additional units of “infantry-company” strength (totalling 160-180 men) accompanied by eight tanks and 16-18 AFV–armored fighting vehicles (mainly IFV-1 and IFV-2 armoured fighting vehicles and 1 MT-LB multipurpose light-armoured transporter) have been observed moving to the front line. Both units arrived from the north through Telmanove. Some arriving forces are in the process of deploying to the east of this sector as a tactical reserve (in particular, another subunit of a combat tank company of up to 8 tanks and a company of infantry troops unaccompanied by armored vehicles on Kamaz\Ural trucks).

    Another tactical terrorist group has been spotted in the Bezimenne – Patriotychne –Samsonove area. It consists of 10 tanks, 25-26 AFV–armored fighting vehicles and 30 trucks and other transport vehicles.

    To the east of Highway T0508, several militant artillery units (two 4-gun batteries of 122 mm D-30 howitzers, as well as six SAU 2S1 “Gvozdika” [self-propelled guns] have been identified. A terrorist two-battery BM-21 “Grad” MLRS division is being deployed near the settlement of Huselshchykove.

    North of Luhansk (in the area of Vesela Hora – Khristovo – Pankivka) a new militant armored group has been spotted (10 tanks and 9 APCs–armored personnel carriers, including four of the latest Russian APC-82A model). The armored vehicles are being camouflaged and dug in.

    The IR group concludes, based on operational information, that the terrorists are currently forming two large tactical strike forces: the first in the Volnovakha direction (south of Donetsk) in the section from Olenivka to Hranitne and Staromarivka. And the second, directly in the coastal area itself from slightly north of Bezimenne to Pavlopil and Chermalyk.

  17. #1037
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Appears that the US/Obama is in fact throwing the Ukraine under the bus for Russian assistance in Iran and Syria---by making unilateral moves with no reciprocal demands on Russia.

    Basically a new Munch 1938 in the name of "legacy".

    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.VbKl2OoVhMs

    Obama Administration Undercutting Ukraine’s Position in the Minsk Armistice Negotiations

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 139

    July 24, 2015 02:00 PM

    By: Vladimir Socor
    So much for the much heralded so called “withdrawal” by Russian troops and her mercenaries of any heavy weapons and or 100mm or less.

    So that great unilateral move by Obama without Russia reciprocal moves is a great success it seems???

    Yesterday militants attacked positions of Ukrainian troops 70 times. Attacks intensified during the night - ATO

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...22&__tn__=%2As

    Any attack numbers above 50-55 is an indicator of full combat ops on the part of the Russians.

  18. #1038
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    Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
    RUAF strategic air force (Tu22/Tu95/Tu160) sw net up with voice traffic. Bears, Backfires or Blackjacks flying today?


    Energy expert: Gazprom has nowhere to sell its gas
    http://www.unian.info/economics/1104...l-its-gas.html … pic.twitter.com/3G6vnsY23G

    Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    06:40 Nothing changed since last evening, as it's rumbled occasionally in the night, as it is

    Russian forces on Friday afternoon, shelled Novgorodske with incendiary shells http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/25-july...ed-novgorodske

    The BBC in Donetsk's former airport, where the Cyborgs have held the line for 8 months: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33646562 … pic.twitter.com/o0BXd5YhuP

    NEW Russian troops in the Ukraine—clear indicator----
    Jul24 15:55 @messy_dn_ua At 3pm In #Snizhne they were asking locals which way is to #Donetsk
    https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/624560087634472960

    During the last day 1 Ukrainian soldier and 1 civilian were wounded in the Stanytsia Luhanska area - Luhansk RSA

    01:00 today Positions of 72nd Mechanized Brigade near Volnovakha came under massive artillery bombardment - Butusov
    https://m.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy...e_butusov&_rdr

    Russian skilled workers in Donbass: Cotton Pickers. pic.twitter.com/z5ZWk6pBGt

    While Obama applies unilateral pressure on the Ukraine to cave in and implement fully Minsk 2 to their own detriment--- massive artillery strikes are being carried out against Ukrainian positions from the "so called " withdrawn heavy weapons and tanks (120mm mortars, tanks with 125mm 122mm/152mm SPGs and artillery) really for the unilateral move by the US what did it get back from Moscow---nothing.

    AND Putin is still not in compliance with Minsk 2 YET Obama demands the Ukrainians come into compliance--and that is a great US foreign policy position???

  19. #1039
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    After 5months of daily RU attacks, they stopped right now, while there are non-stop attacks everywhere.

    Ukr Gen Staff said it will withdraw troops from Shyrokyno if RU attacks cease. And... they did!

    Translation: We will withdraw soon Ukr troops from #Shyrokyno, as Russia requested. No need for them to be there anymore.

    ATO spox: "In #Mariupol sector ceasefire holds. First time since Minsk II no violations".


    Got #Thermobaric? #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/H6nYdVKCa1

    Donetsk #rumours @666_mancer It is rumoured that one of these days lots of Russian hardware will be delivered.

    SBU detained two of the Lviv separatists from the organization "Galician hawk" http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/24-july...tists-from-the

    Russian military equipment, Novocherkassk, Rostov region 18 July. via @GirkinGirkin pic.twitter.com/I9wZykbX17 Map https://www.google.ie/maps/place/Nov...c03d8f6214c8ca
    From the Mariupol area where Putin wants the Ukraine to withdraw from as a "sign of good faith" this happened yesterday.

    Appears Putin really badly wants the area taken without a fight much like he demanded for Debaltseve.

    Yesterday militants 8 times attacked UKR positions in sector "M". Both Starohnativka (6) and Chermalyk (2) attackedhttp://m.0629.com.ua/news/902205

    Sector M is Mariupol area of the front line.

    Maybe Obama and Nuland with their "special Putin relationship" can ask him why there is still fighting in this area when they were suppose to be pulling back and claimed they pulled back.

  20. #1040
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    .@UaForces UKR positions near #Luhanske were shelled w/122mm artillery about midnight Jul24

    Ukr army's 72nd brigade was massively shelled near Volnovakha w/ 122-mm artillery. Enemy used UAVs to direct fire https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yur...23327441040885

    My #Donbas source: @GrahamWP_UK was jealous @TomBurridgebbc's got access to #DonetskAirport, so he denounced him & his crew as spies.

    Fighting is still ongoing in this area-----
    10:03 #Novhorodske @LeeZernoganja [Impacts on] vegetable plot edge, fire in a woodline, rails hit. On nothing in brief


    Yday afternoon RUS fired at #Novhorodske with incendiaries" http://youtu.be/gpt6Ef1kg1k

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