Boy did DoS Kerry misread the Russian FM OR did he simply not want to believe Russia would actually invade the Ukraine--for whatever reason his largest blunder and he should never forget it when dealing with Putin.
Yet it seems he has a very short memory.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...e-ukraine.html
Washington Bureau
02.27.14
6:15 PM ET
Putin’s Bluff? U.S. Spies Say Russia Won't Invade Ukraine
American intelligence has concluded that Russia won't openly invade Ukraine, despite a massive military exercise on the border and the armed takeover of local airports.
U.S. intelligence estimates conclude that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. This, despite the launch of a massive, new Russian military exercise near Ukraine’s border and moves from armed men to seize two key airports in the country's Crimea region.
The latest developments led Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov Friday to accuse Russia of invading the Russian majority province of Crimea after armed militias took control of the civilian airport in Simferopol, the region's capital and the military airport in Sevastopol, where Russia's Black Sea fleet is based. Russian authorities meanwhile have denied any responsibility for the seizure of the two airports in the region.
On Wednesday Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, ordered 150,000 troops to take part in a military exercise his defense minister said was a routine test of combat readiness. A senior U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast that the timing of the military exercise, coming only days after the Ukrainian parliament voted to oust the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was suspicious. But nonetheless, U.S. intelligence agencies have collected no information suggesting the training exercises were preparation for an invasion.
“The mere fact of the timing when you consider what is going on in Ukraine and you see the sudden nature of the exercise would cause concern,” this official said. “From an intelligence perspective we don’t have any reason to think it’s more than military exercises."
The assessment is based in part on the fact that not enough medical units have been ordered to accompany the Russian troops to the Ukrainian border to suggest preparation for war, according to one Congressional staffer who has seen intelligence on Russia. This source also said no signal intercepts have detected plans for an invasion.
On Thursday, Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged that he had been assured in conversations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Russia respected the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Kerry is urging all sides to stand down. Earlier in the week, Kerry warned Russia's leader not to mistake the current conflict in the Ukraine for Rocky IV, the 1985 movie about a steroid-addled Soviet boxer who is eventually defeated by the American, Rocky Balboa.
“From an intelligence perspective we don’t have any reason to think it’s more than military exercises.”
“We believe that everybody now needs to step back and avoid any kind of provocations,” Kerry told reporters in Washington Thursday.
Since Sunday, senior U.S. officials have publicly warned Russia not to escalate the already delicate situation in the Ukraine. At a conference for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels, Belgium, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said, “We expect other nations to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and avoid provocative action. That’s why I’m closely watching Russia’s military exercises along the Ukrainian border, which they just announced yesterday."
The stand off over Ukraine marks a low point in U.S.-Russia relations for President Obama. In 2009 he touted a "reset" in the relationship that had frozen in the last year of the Bush administration after Russia invaded two provinces of Georgia, a former Soviet Republic. This fall, Kerry and Obama touted Russia's offers to help destroy Syria's chemical weapons stocks as evidence of a mutually beneficial relationship with Moscow. But the Ukraine crisis pits the two former Cold War rivals in opposition. The now deposed Ukrainian president sparked the first protests in Kiev after he ended talks with the European Union over integrating his country with Europe. Putin has made it clear that he would like Ukraine to remain more closely tied to Russia than to the west.
The exercises have also raised concerns from top Republicans. Rep. Howard "Buck" McKeon, the Republicans chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, was even wistful for the end of the cold war when America's military budget was fattened to outspend the Soviet Union. “Look what’s happening in the Ukraine. Russia is now putting a 150,000 troop exercise on the border with the Ukraine. Russia is a problem,” McKeon said. “What, are we going to put troops on the other side of the border in Ukraine?”
One potential flashpoint will be Russian military installations in the Ukrainian province of Crimea.
American intelligence has concluded that Russia won't openly invade Ukraine, despite a massive military exercise on the border and the armed takeover of local airports.
Fiona Hill, the director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, said she did not expect Russia to launch a land invasion into Ukraine. She did however say that the Russian Navy’s presence in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in the Crimea would be a potential flash point. “There is one place where they could indeed do something militarily, Crimea,” Hill said. “If there was any kind of threat to the bases, they could mobilize their forces.”
Russian intervention in Crimea would depend, according to Hill, on whether the current tensions in that province escalate. On Thursday masked gunmen reportedly stormed the regional parliament building in Crimea and hoisted Russian flags.
“Let’s say things move beyond attacks on administrative buildings in Crimea to attacks that start to move against the Russian Black Sea fleet installations or there is an attack on Russian soldiers or civilian workers,” Hill said. “Then this could be a trigger for Russian action. So far we have not seen anything like that.”
Russian mercenaries are again shelling their own towns
22:28 #Donetsk Kalinovka @AlfaNubovsky I hear both volleys and explosions nearly at once. Shelling the city from inside the city started
22:31 #Donetsk City @donetsk_ukrop Volley and landing at once are audible
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-04-2015 at 07:44 PM.
Shelling reports are coming in at a high rate now--it is going to be another long, long night on the eastern front line--all along the front line actually.
Fortress Crimea: Russia Shifts Military Balance in the Black Sea http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43181&cHash=aeb310d4b362ad5ae4fd3d3db1488c57 … by @JamestownTweets 9/12/2014 pic.twitter.com/lGypOmWg2T
The city of #Mariupol is important (port, metals industry). But more than that, it denies Russia control over Fortress Crimea's east flank.
Landbridge from Rostov region to Crimea: Not just an access issue. Russian military "Fortress Crimea" concept requires 100% flank control.
If report by Yuriy Tandyt (adviser to @ServiceSsu) accurate: Russia intends to take the Rostov to Crimea landbridge http://www.unian.info/politics/11081...ean-route.html …
Kremlin: "We'll give you Nadia Savchenko back, and you'll let us force a route from Rostov to Crimea" http://www.unian.info/politics/11081...ean-route.html … v @unian 4 Aug
SBU: Russia attempted to trade Savchenko for "Crimean Route" http://www.unian.info/politics/11081...ean-route.html …
Donestk tonight, heavy shelling:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnDfinl6kg …
Early morning hours—still shelling is ongoing---
Images taken by "Army SOS" UAV of Lohvynove (nr Debaltceve) now ghost town after being destroyed from winter fighting pic.twitter.com/ThEd7dWaWi
News
3 Ukrainian border guards troops and 1 soldier injured in overnight attack on #Marinka.
Russian forces fired 7 tank shots.
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, August 5, 00:00 EET pic.twitter.com/VkCDy34DJJ
SBU: Russian military filtering center set up in Rostov region to select Russian military for deployment in Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/war/1108227-fi...n-ukraine.html …
11:34 #Dokuchaevsk @shuttle1907 2 RUS BMP w/troops on armour, 1 Ural truck w/troops and about 8 cars entered the town
At night militants fired with mortars on Troits'ke. 1 Ukrainian soldier was wounded - RSA
https://m.facebook.com/odalug/posts/455603884621917 …
Destruction to northern #Donetsk neighborhoods where Russian tanks, artillery and vehicles park August2015 pic.twitter.com/BqYuTgZxYD
Peskov: in the Kremlin did not discussed the creation of a route from Russia to Crimea through Ukraine http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...d-the-creation …Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
THIS in Russian doublespeak means it was actually discussed.
Nevermind the Kremlin's denials; Russian General Staff have plans to seize control of Rostov to Crimea landbridge... https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/st...64652412354561 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-05-2015 at 10:30 AM.
Head of General Staff of RF Gerasimov and 10 more top officers are suspected in managing war on Donbas - SBU http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...ov-and-10-more …
The presence of 3,5 thousand Russian soldiers near Illovaysk is proved – SBU http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...-soldiers-near …
OSCE: militants used incendiary ammunition in Stanitsa Luhanska pic.twitter.com/rFaAKXSNpI http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...on-in-stanitsa …
Breedlove: Russia is a major security threat. NATO knows about Moscow's strategic objectives https://translate.google.ie/translat...748&edit-text= …
Strelkov: "Azarov's committee" (exile Ukrainian government wannabees) is a new project of Surkov pic.twitter.com/hmYEaH14xw http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...ject-of-surkov …
Strelkov was the original instigator for the eastern Ukraine takeover—FSB officer and seems to be constantly making comments that would normally get one killed for in Russia.
Surkov is Putin’s right hand man handling the eastern Ukraine and the Russian mercenaries.
Russian proxies attack Ukrainian troops “81 times overnight" http://24today.net/open/492655
#News
Another 7 Ukrainian troops injured yesterday.
60 WIA/KIA in 5 days.
ATO spox: Mariupol sector: peace and quiet order was violated near Chemarlyk, when militants attacked UA positions with small arms
ATO spox: Ukrainian Armed Forces did not incur any casualties; seven servicemen were wounded in action in last 24 hours
Somewhere in Russian-occupied Luhansk region, Ukraine, 3 or 4 August 2015 https://vk.com/dnrarmy?w=wall-51146063_4750 … pic.twitter.com/QFHNl7XixM
Results of Militant artillery attack on positions of the 34th Brigade, couple of nights ago
https://m.facebook.com/ruhoporu.info...message_bubble … pic.twitter.com/9zGe7AIWnE
Yesterday in the ATO zone was recorded 10 flights of Russian drones, and one over the sea of Azov http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...ded-10-flights …
Col.Lysenko: Luhansk sector: hostilities resumed near the Bakhmut road: enemy shelling of UA positions http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...s-resumed-near …
Col. Andriy Lysenko: Western outskirts of Donetsk: militants shelled residential districts of Avdiivka and Opytne for 5 times.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-05-2015 at 10:38 AM.
Almost 0 civilian cars parked in #Donetsk housing areas but plenty of Russian tanks http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=48...2&z=18&m=b&v=1 … pic.twitter.com/hHcHkpsIka
Two Russian Spetsnaz teams beaten back during their attacks on Ukrainian positions---
ATO spox: In the region of Verhnotoretske, UA military repelled attacks of two hostile sabotage-reconnaissance groups.
Col. Lysenko: Late at night, Russian-backed troops carried out three shelling of Ukrainian positions near the Novhorodske village.
Another Russian Spetsnaz team beaten back during their attack--
ATO spokesperson: At night, militants sabotage group attacked UA positions near Leninske village. The attack was successfully repulsed.
Col. Lysenko: Donetsk sector: Traces from enemy shells were recorded even in the deep rear – 12 km from the front line.
ATO spox: Donetsk sector: The enemy continued systematic artillery and mortar shelling against UA positions near Svitlodarsk.
Col. ATO spokesperson: Luhansk sector: Short-term, occasional hostile armed provocations were recorded along the entire contact line.
Col.Lysenko: Luhansk sector: hostilities resumed near the Bakhmut road: enemy shelling of UA positions near Orihove and Novotoshkivske
Stratfor: Rumors of escalating conflict abound in eastern Ukraine http://www.unian.info/politics/11082...n-ukraine.html … via @UNIAN 5 Aug
Dnipro air reconnaissance squad improved UAV, it's able to fly up to 150km http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...oved-their-uav … pic.twitter.com/jHxRY3IxFp via @Aero_Dnipro1
Russian Drones in Service of Donetsk Militants: https://en.informnapalm.org/russian-...tsk-militants/ … pic.twitter.com/vn4xm8AfgU
The “Russian way” to increase birth rates--------not so sure the sanctioning of western condoms is really going to hurt the EU or the US????
Ban on imported condoms will make Russians more disciplined,more thoughtful in chosing partners' says Onishenko http://www.rg.ru/2015/08/05/onishenko-anons.html …
Terrorists using KGB tactics in Donbas war. They dress in the uniforms of Ukrainian Armed Forces
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/08/0...in-donbas-war/ …
Fantastic photo essay and video abt soldiers of 95th brigade of Airborne Forces of Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=11&v=WN70BtRMSlE … pic.twitter.com/sHbYXYy09L
Heavy Fighting Around Donetsk Continues This Morning
ATO Briefing
09:12 (GMT)
Russian-backed forces have continued to press attacks in the Donetsk area overnight, with fighting still reported to be under way this morning
A post on the Kyiv-1 Battalion's Facebook page at 6:30 GMT said that the battalion's fighters, located along the front line from Marinka to Krasnogorovka, were currently under mortar and sniper fire.
The State Border Agency (DPSU) announced today that three of their personnel and one soldier had been wounded in this same area in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
According to the report, a checkpoint in Marinka was shelled with around 100 mortar rounds. Russian-backed forces then used small arms, automatic grenade launchers, anti-aircraft artillery, guided anti-tank missiles and a tank against the Ukrainian position.
The DPSU said that Ukrainian troops had prevented an enemy advance by returning fire with small arms, as well as rocket-propelled and automatic grenades.
Colonel Andriy Lysenko, a military spokesman for the Presidential Administration, announced at noon today that seven Ukrainian servicemen had been wounded over the past day:
The Ukrainian military's ATO Press Centre reported this morning that Russian-backed forces had intensified their attacks in the Donetsk area over the last 24 hours.
According to the report, a Ukrainian defensive position in Opytnoye, north of Donetsk, was shelled several times throughout the night by tanks and mortars. Vodyanoye, a little to the west, was shelled with 120 mm mortars.
Residential areas of Avdeyevka, to the north-east, were, the Press Centre claims, shelled with 152 and 122 mm artillery at around 21:00 last night.
Both Colonel Lysenko and the ATO Press Centre report that two attempts were made by Russian-backed fighters to break through the Ukrainian front lines north-east of Donetsk, near Verkhnotoretskoye.
After two skirmishes, at 20:30 and 21:15, the attacking sabotage and reconnaissance groups retreated.
Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti news agency reported that one civilian had been wounded in the separatist-held village of Krasny Partizan, just south-east of Verkhnotoretskoye.
According to the report, Ukrainian forces shelled the village at 23:00 last night.
Lysenko reported further on fighting last night near Gorlovka:
In the Lugansk region, Lysenko reported fighting on the Bakhmutka highway, with Ukrainian positions near Orekhovo (Orihove) and Novotoshkovskoye (Novotoshkivske) shelled.
The Lugansk Military-Civil Administration announced today that a Ukrainian soldier had been wounded after the outskirts of Troitskoye were shelled with mortars at around 1 am today.
In Krymskoye, on the southern bank of the Seversky Donets river, seven cows were wounded by shelling, which also set off a fire that was not extinguished until late at night.
The DPSU reported that a Ukrainian checkpoint near Zolotoye was attacked yesterday with small arms and anti-aircraft artillery. Meanwhile, in Stanitsa Luganskaya, at the eastern end of the front line, two border guards were wounded after coming under fire.
In the south of the Donetsk region, Ukrainian military analyst Dmytro Tymchuk reports that positions east of Volnovakha, between Beryozovoye and Granitnoye, were fired-on by Russian-backed forces with mortars, automatic grenade launchers and anti-aircraft artillery.
Tymchuk claimed that Russian-backed forces had been noticed regrouping infantry along the front in this area.
Further south along the river Kalmius, Colonel Lysenko reported attacks near Chermalyk
Russian army 2S1 Gvozdika (2С1 Гвоздика, 'Carnation') 122mm self-propelled howitzer munitions https://vk.com/dnrarmy?w=wall-51146063_4751 … pic.twitter.com/61uAeM3oq8
How is it there in the Ukraine?
- Putin: "Ok, i hope we will win" http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...ow-is-there-in … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSNKN_pdE3g …
In German---
KeinWitz
Junge zu #Putin: "Was ist los in der Ukraine?"
Putin: "Nichts. Ich hoffe, wir werden gewinnen."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSNKN_pdE3g …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-05-2015 at 11:39 AM.
Reference the MH17 shot down----Russia is working overtime to deflect anything pointing to them being involved in the shot down.
Somehow Lavrov fails to mention the Russians themselves pushed out six different stories largely lies to include their own MoD being caught at lying by social media open source analysis.
Lavrov working hard smearing the JIT investigation - Russian foreign minister: #MH17 investigation team "prejudiced" http://bit.ly/1SNith8
Again Russian doublespeak—guess prejudice is when you are caught with your hand in the cookie jar and try to sell it as a jam jar.
The investigation of the crash of Boeing in the Donbass was not really international - Lavrov http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...-boeing-in-the … #Ukraine via @KFM936
Russian doublespeak again—not really international—let’s see—there was Boeing the manufacturer, then the Dutch, the UK, the Malaysians who had citizens killed and then there was the Ukraine where it crashed AND then Russia who claimed to have sent information pointing to the Ukrainians being the blamed party.
So exactly how many countries does it take to be “international”?????
Again Russian doublespeak----
Lavrov: RF had called US and Kyiv to publish satellite images and talks of dispatchers http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...lish-satellite … via @RT_russian
WHAT he means here is “please publish what you have” so we can come up with a new “fake story”.
Let's cut to the chase, Lavrov just wants to say the #MH17 investigations are horribly biased against Russia and shouldn't be trusted.
My the Russian FM Lavrov is more than a little sensitive as he fully knows this war crime could in fact land him and Putin in front of the Hague.
"Stop speculating on and politicizing the MH17 investigation!" yells Lavrov, before going into a rant about Western plots to frame Russia.
Russia resorts to war in Donbas to prevent encirclement of Donetsk by ATO forces in 2014
http://www.unian.info/war/1108341-ru...s-in-2014.html … pic.twitter.com/R9MYgry436
Crimean "Berkut" meets Rus guests of banned festival «Befooz»
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCJpYoNhHwY …
Welcome to "Russian" Crimea ... pic.twitter.com/6Koec29zf7
Matios: Russian invasion in Ukraine planned since 2013
http://www.unian.info/war/1108350-ma...ince-2013.html … pic.twitter.com/NrwixnnCGq
Militants deliberately destroy infrastructure in Avdiivka. Effects of 3/4 Aug shelling - Abroskin pic.twitter.com/VMZh2WF0k2
Since the start of the year, as a result of shelling in Avdiivka, 31 civilians have been killed and 87 wounded - Abroskin
R-142N combined radio station vehicle (GAZ-66 with 2 aerials) in background, occupied Donbas https://vk.com/dnrarmy?w=wall-51146063_4751 … pic.twitter.com/GOLTXatotD
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-05-2015 at 11:42 AM.
Russian Soldier Promises His Friends to Kill Ukrainians 'the Same Way As Last Summer': https://en.informnapalm.org/russian-...s-last-summer/ … pic.twitter.com/WVAQ0KowLn
21 Jul article by @en_informnapalm on (not necess' same) R-142N Radiostation spotted in the ‘Sparta’ Training Camp https://en.informnapalm.org/r-142n-r...training-camp/ …
Ukrenergo asks SBU to verify "strange accidents" at Akhmetov’s facilities
http://www.unian.info/economics/1108...acilities.html … pic.twitter.com/s8mGzrSHXC
Dokuchaevsk @shuttle1907 "Half day RUS stir suspiciously. They didn't stir for a long time like this. Preparing something".
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-05-2015 at 01:36 PM.
Discuss in various sub-groups of the Minsk Contact group on Ukraine will continue via "Skype" - Lavrov http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/5-augus...-minsk-contact …
Well the US and French pressured unilateral appeasement moves in support of Putin’s own demands seems to have gone nowhere---really via Sykpe????
That is like saying we will continue face to face but via snail mail.
So much for the Western leaders unilateral appeasement approach—so now what is Plan X going to be????
Appears that the Ukrainians understand Putin’s mind set and his intentions far better than Obama, Nuland, Kerry, Hollande and Merkel all put together.
http://www.unian.info/politics/11082...ns-source.html
Militants venture to gain control over whole Donbas with local elections – source
05.08.2015 | 11:41
The Russian proxies from the self-styled DPR and LPR will try to seize power over the whole of Donbas by holding local elections in the occupied territories on October 25, simultaneously with the rest of Ukraine, apostrophe.com.ua reports citing a source in the Presidential Administration.
"Despite [opposite] claims, the leaders of DPR and LPR want to hold [local] elections at the same time with the rest of Ukraine, that is on October 25, in order to obtain legitimate authority over the whole of Donbas, not just a small part of it, which is now under their control, - in case of reintegration [of the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions],"- the source has told the publication.
"Now, we are trying to disrupt these plans," he added.
In addition, according to the source, this is the reason why the draft law on local elections adopted by Verkhovna Rada on July 17 has not yet been signed by the President
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