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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #121
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    For those SWJ readers that still assume Russia is moving into the Ukraine due to "humiliation" or NATO expansion to the East--think again the video below came out in 2012 and mirrors remarkably well Russian moves in 2014/2015.

    Both the content and date of this video make it really interesting in light of Russian moves against the Ukraine—so already in 2012 they are thinking of complete takeover?????

    Russia has been planning this for a long while--some comments indicated as early as 2002.

    2012 video called "Ukraine 2015": "Donbass volunteers liberating Ukraine from dictatorship"
    http://youtu.be/GXISTcz-sO0 pic.twitter.com/EQ4FOQTKWD

  2. #122
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    Well taken point==pointed out by Canada NATO concerning Putin’s threat against NATO if it forward stations defensive weapons .

    Worried about potential #NATO storage? #Russia has hundreds of tanks, APCs, artillery in active use in E #Ukraine https://twitter.com/CanadaNATO/statu...59179491618816

    Right now the Russian mercenaries have more tanks and artillery than five combined NATO armies including Germany and France.

  3. #123
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    Separatist" website openly says #Russia journo "got his mug punched" 4 covering Monday's #Donetsk anti-war rally: pic.twitter.com/cKkjrtwLcb

    A BUK M-1 on display at Russia's military fair. Remember: "only Ukraine has this version"... pic.twitter.com/78ctW08w9w
    via @shaunwalker7

    In my opinion there is still a severe lack of videos and photos coming from Ukrainian side and we are flooded with Russian propaganda stuff.

    Russia (just) announcing it can fry drones out of the sky. Why not give us a demonstration? https://twitter.com/PopMech/status/610947621973291008

    After Putin and the Turkish President met in Baku—announced with great fanfare about the pipeline NOW 72 hours later from Gazprom itself.

    That was quick! Turkish-Russian gas pipeline 'facing obstacles'... https://twitter.com/Nervana_1/status/610968265502892032

  4. #124
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    .@SimonOstrovsky: "The truth is that the evidence for #Russia's active role in the war in #Ukraine is everywhere"
    https://news.vice.com/article/russia...icenewstwitter
    Example: pic.twitter.com/g1WGq2srys

    Russian "altered state of reality":
    United #Russia lawmakers question legitimacy of #USSR State Council recognizing #Baltic independence
    http://en.delfi.lt/central-eastern-e....d?id=68269318

    Le Pen politically brought by Russia for 11M Euros—not a bad investment it seems.
    Putin's Fascist International forms political group in European parliament led by neo-Nazi Le Pen's NF http://www.politico.eu/article/franc...an-parliament/

    RU hybrid army artillery hiding spot in #Krasnoarmiiske https://archive.is/s0YV2 Wanna go take a look at it, @OSCE? pic.twitter.com/2bn4aHh113

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, June 17, 00:00 EET pic.twitter.com/DkIe251qzU

    5 Ukrainian soldiers wounded in Luhansk region yesterday. Terrorists fired with GRAD MLRS on Troitske - Moskal
    http://moskal.in.ua/index.php

    Seleznev: Russian militants use ammunition seized in #Crimea http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-june...unition-seized … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/kHh6p0K176 via @radiosvoboda

    THIS is one of the most important parts of Minsk 2--the immediate exchange of prisoners military and civilian--the mercenaries on their own simply declared they are no longer exchanging like for like.

    So in effect both Russia and her mercenaries are in clear violation of Minsk 2.

    270 Ukrainians are in captivity of militants, - Geraschenko http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-june...s--geraschenko … pic.twitter.com/4q7T1SHGQO via @unian

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Looks like Russian Air Force is showing off its anti-shipping capabilities for benefit of #BALTOPS2015 in Baltic Sea Region via @uascan

    Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
    RUAF VHF comms south in Baltic Sea

    Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
    Hello Foxhound

    Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
    RUAF VHF traffic in Gulf of Finland

    Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
    Hello Backfire
    As we said, two Russian Air Force Tu-22M3 mritime strike bombers (anti-shipping) plus fighter escort. #BALTOPS2015 https://twitter.com/Latvijas_armija/...04230393401344

    NBS @Latvijas_armija
    Air Policing jets on 17 JUN in international airspace above the Baltic Sea near LV border identified RU AF 2x Tu-22M un 2x MiG-31.

    NBS @Latvijas_armija
    Air Policing jets on 16 JUN in international airspace above the Baltic Sea near LV border identified RU AF 1x A-50, Il-20, An-26; 2x MiG-31.

    Naturally transponders turned off------

    NBS @Latvijas_armija
    Armed Forces on 16 JUN in LV EEZ 27 nmi from territ. waters spotted RU Navy's Kilo-class sub, Parchim-class corvette, and support ship Bira.

  6. #126
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    One does really have to wonder if the entre Russian government has been "drinking the kool aid" for so long they cannot tell reality from unreality.

    It is a serious issue when government officials truly start to believe their own propaganda lies as then when key decisions must be made their own massive biases just get in the way and they potentially make fatal decisions simply because they do not see the true "reality".

    Putin and his government is right now on that path and it is becoming more evident that they have indeed entered "an altered state of reality".

    TASS: Peskov: Russia is not threatening Western countries, just forced to take reciprocal measures. https://twitter.com/tass_agency/stat...06027904176128

    Hm... reciprocal measures? Which western country invaded Ukraine? https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/stat...06539663937536

    @Amb_Yakovenko MFA: Russian TV news channels blocked in #Ukraine, Baltic states. Right of access to information denied to millions.

  7. #127
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    Another "normal" day on the Ukrainian eastern front--and not a single word out of Obama, Hollande and Merkel about the massively increased combat activities by Russia and her mercenaries--not a single word or press statement..

    It is almost as if they are desperately attempting to hide themselves under the rug to avoid making serious decisions.

    One would think that after a large number of Ukrainian military have been killed and wounded in this latest Russian offensive push one of them would make some kind of statement????? You would think but then......

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    SBU prevented an attempt to smuggle goods used in production of Russian T-90 tanks, aviation and space equipment

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Ukrainian servicemen spotted 3 flights of enemy UAVs

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Luhansk sector: Isolated armed provocations. Militants used 120mm mortars & IFVs near Krymske.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Donetsk sector: hotspots – airport, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka. Enemy snipers became more active near Spartak village.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Mariupol sector: Shyrokyne – only hotspot. Militants used mortars and the artillery to target Ukrainian troops

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Number of ceasefire violations slightly decreased. But pro-RU militants still use heavy artillery, mortars, tanks.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-17-2015 at 10:18 AM.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Another "normal" day on the Ukrainian eastern front--and not a single word out of Obama, Hollande and Merkel about the massively increased combat activities by Russia and her mercenaries--not a single word or press statement..

    It is almost as if they are desperately attempting to hide themselves under the rug to avoid making serious decisions.

    One would think that after a large number of Ukrainian military have been killed and wounded in this latest Russian offensive push one of them would make some kind of statement????? You would think but then......

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    SBU prevented an attempt to smuggle goods used in production of Russian T-90 tanks, aviation and space equipment

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Ukrainian servicemen spotted 3 flights of enemy UAVs

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Luhansk sector: Isolated armed provocations. Militants used 120mm mortars & IFVs near Krymske.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Donetsk sector: hotspots – airport, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka. Enemy snipers became more active near Spartak village.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Mariupol sector: Shyrokyne – only hotspot. Militants used mortars and the artillery to target Ukrainian troops

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Number of ceasefire violations slightly decreased. But pro-RU militants still use heavy artillery, mortars, tanks.
    #Hirske 11:30
    LOUD
    From Solnechna shooting towards Zolote or Stakhanov https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...99538833719296

    Russian 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm artillery in hidden place 7 kms from contact line.
    https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2255.../data=!3m1!1e3
    https://twitter.com/el_roosevelt/sta...93745338068992

    VIDEO Ukrainian sappers clearing booby traps, mines, unexploded shells.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOmDKbqF7QM

    10 Ukraine troops WIA in Maryinka. https://twitter.com/novostidnua/stat...03953066041344

    14 #Russian tanks & 48 APCs were spotted near #Illovaisk & #Mariupol by #OSCE, @sprotiv reports http://ift.tt/1HRDVei r

    These Russian 2S1 Gvozdika are not just parked there. They are being used. Likely to shoot at #Shyrokyne. pic.twitter.com/WInM5fawMR

    Shyrokyne shelled 7 times over past day. Enemy troops are being concentrated near Hranitne - Mariupol Defense HQ http://en.censor.net.ua/n340384

  9. #129
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    This is what makes US foreign policy a bit strange and supports the concept that the US has thrown the Ukraine under the bus---if one takes a look at this DoS Kerry statement one could in fact conclude that he is critiquing the Ukraine as much as Russia.

    BUT in the last ten days Ukrainian loses have been high in just attempting to keep Russian troops and her mercenaries from crossing the contact line and even OSCe has verified relentless shellings of Ukrainian positions and YET this statement comes out of DoS. On top of it the UA is not responding in kind unless truly threatened with being overrun by Russian troops.

    Example—yesterday they returned fire with 82mm mortars when the Russian were firing 122mm and 152mm heavy artillery at them.

    Does this DoS statement make sense to anyone other than Kerry himself.

    WASHINGTON – Instead of trading mutual accusations of shelling and violation of the Minsk agreement, the parties to the Ukrainian conflict should take greater efforts to implement these agreements through negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said.

    Does Kerry truly not realize that unless there is a verified silent ceasefire with no fire coming from anyone—negotiations will never work????

    If you are the Ukraine--would you stop to smell the coffee when you are getting shelled and ground attacked and still have POWs the mercenaries have not exchanged--dare say I would not--noticed Kerry went into none of that.

    It is almost like he is just giving the problem "lip service".

  10. #130
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    Maj-Gen Taran: ATO forces ready to repel Russian forces concentrating near Hranitne village http://en.censor.net.ua/news/340384/...nitne_mariupol … pic.twitter.com/1kRzBS3zln

    Only passport and code from SBU now needed to cross the ATO borderline with Russia-occupied territory of #Donbass. https://twitter.com/donetsk62ua/stat...16045554749440

    Militant of the battalion "Ghost" was arrested in Luhansk region http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-june...ted-in-luhansk

    SBU blocked the attempt of fake movement "national Council of Bessarabia" pic.twitter.com/7kWnxIylx0 http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-june...-proliferation

    Jun16 16:55 #Donetsk @eralash_fm Along Petrovskogo St tow/Petrovka a very long column moved - cannons, SPGs, tanks, troops

    Shyrokyne shelled seven times over past day. Terrorist troops are being concentrated near Hranitne, - Mariupol HQ http://en.censor.net.ua/n340384

  11. #131
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    The militants again shelled a checkpoint Zolote in the Luhansk region http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-june...oint-zolote-in … #Ukraine via @ukrpravda_news

    Consequences of heavy explosion yesterday in Donetsk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-june...day-in-donetsk … pic.twitter.com/aztnlDgjtp via @neviglases

    Donetsk, huge crater, what exploded there yesterday?
    Source: https://vk.com/wall22440138_1714 … pic.twitter.com/jCfu2w73N4

    Looks like Russian forces deliberately making massive craters near Donetsk to pin blame on Ukraine breaking Minsk eg https://youtu.be/8qXZDJoEGkQ?t=7s

    Russia|n army tanks near #Donetsk City
    pic.twitter.com/PoOAk4MpGk

    #Russian annexation of captured #Ukraine territories proceeding: Border post being dismantled in #Luhansk. https://twitter.com/24todaynetua/sta...14248131620864
    pic.twitter.com/zYFJ7exiPt

    Captured UKR border crossing point Dolzhansky is cut for scrap metal [too] @24todaynetua pic.twitter.com/eEAWJSa6Je http://24today.net/open/445106

    #Lysychansk 1:09PM
    Loud explosion heard
    "in the area of Lysychansk Rubber Products Plant" https://twitter.com/lis_ukrop/status/611113396830904320

    Hirske 1:17PM
    Volleys https://twitter.com/remember7777/sta...13706764795904

  12. #132
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    What Caused The Powerful Explosion That Rocked Donetsk Last Night? http://bit.ly/1LfrOcX pic.twitter.com/FA0FVQ1uMM

    "Yesterday a wagon w/120-152mm projectiles detonated on the rails at the chemical plant"
    pic.twitter.com/7YOlX9biqF
    @loogunda @vitaliy00700
    @Guderian_Xaba More pictures.
    pic.twitter.com/FWu5NVqA9K
    Last pictures.
    pic.twitter.com/F1bexE1Wgn

    Last night's HUGE explosion on the Donetsk chem plant DKZKhI grounds was the 3rd since Oct; arms warehouse blew up: http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...ka-last-night/

    Keep seeing reports that that DNR's Pushilin was arrested, under charge of espionage for #Ukraine's SBU...

  13. #133
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    Aidar batt reported 4 WIA from #Zolote.
    The Ukr checkpoint was shelled there earlier. https://twitter.com/virtyoza_666/sta...52274426097664

    Ukraine observers record destruction in Stanytsia Luhanska & Toshkivka from June 15 shelling
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...16&__tn__=%2As … pic.twitter.com/ObAxjtCXzn

    Ukraine Reports Attacks In Lugansk Region, Shirokino And East Of Volnovakha http://bit.ly/1LfskaE pic.twitter.com/WbkRb2M4j5
    The chart indicating the actual current fighting is quite good.

    Former Vice Speaker of Ukraine Rada, Koshulynsky is fighting in Donbas as ordinary artilleryman. https://twitter.com/donetsk62ua/stat...40386367610880

    Russia's military intelligence company that assaulted Parliament of Crimea 2014, identified. https://informnapalm.org/9800-natsys...skyj-parlament … pic.twitter.com/GWd5TQmd7L

    CSIS ✔ @CSIS
    Andri Taranov on Russian-backed training camps in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/28TJV4pMDr

    Zolotoe, #Lugansk reg - gas pipeline broken by militia shellings. https://twitter.com/estebanmunozz/st...76216100339713
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-17-2015 at 03:46 PM.

  14. #134
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    I have commented here a number of times on the apparent fact that Facebook has become quite proRussian either because of the oligarch investment into it or the fact that a Russian oligarch controls the EU operations of Facebook—but the company has become a critical link in the Russian propaganda war and seems to not care if they are called out on it.


    RFE/RL ✔ @RFERL
    "Tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian bloggers no longer feel safe on Facebook"
    http://bit.ly/1Tqqd6r pic.twitter.com/j4h5ymTwE1

    Notice this massive despite is not being mentioned at all in the US mainstream IT media and Facebook user groups--it should especially when they fully understand the sheer size of the Russian influence inside Facebook.

  15. #135
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    This author fully understand Putin and Russia.

    New post on In Moscow's Shadows

    A Perverse Thought: Finding A Silver Lining In Moscow’s Latest Nuclear Sabre-Rattling

    by Mark Galeotti

    At times, there is something of the predictably petulant teenager in Russia's strategic responses. NATO lets it be known that it is considering pre-positioning US armour in the Baltic States (as I've said, this is "heavy metal diplomacy" aimed at reassuring the Balts and warning off the Russians more than because there is any serious expectation of war). And in knee-jerk response, Putin announces that

    "More than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems will be added to the make-up of the nuclear arsenal this year."

    Perversely and paradoxically I find something faintly reassuring about this. Bizarre? Let me explain.


    First of all, Russia is updating its nuclear arsenal anyway. Putting aside whether these fabled BMD-beating missiles would anyway work as intended -- the miserable development history of the 3M30 RSM-56 Bulava (SS-NX-32) is a cautionary tale against assuming Russia can deliver world-class technologies these days -- this is essentially Putin repackaging existing deployment plans as if it were some new initiative. In other words, he hasn't anything new to offer.

    Secondly, nuclear weapons are that contradiction in terms, an unbeatable weapon that cannot be used. Unless Putin seriously intends to risk global thermonuclear armageddon (something that would have even his generals and cronies thinking twice), of which there is no credible hint, then they are essentially (a) to protect the homeland against existential threat and (b) for posturing. Given that there is no threat of any invasion (no, InfoWars, it is not the case that "Mounting evidence suggests US-dominated NATO heading for direct confrontation with Russia"), this is rather an attempt to worry the West.

    Putin knows that using the n-word -- nuclear -- gets us sitting up and paying attention. But essentially, this is just a bit of martial PR, rattling a sabre that he cannot use and which will have no effect unless the West allows itself to be rattled.

    How is this encouraging? In comparison with possible alternatives. Had Putin instead announced something that was both new and usable, such as moving a Spetsnaz unit close to the Estonian border, or offering a thousand scholarships to Russian-speaking Balts to come study in Russia (where they could be indoctrinated, recruited, and trained), then I would have been more worried.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-17-2015 at 02:58 PM.

  16. #136
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    Quick historical fact--the Soviet Union collapsed for these reasons.

    1. a fall in oil prices
    2. they simply could not keep up with the US induced arms race.

    Are we now seeing a repeat of that.

    1. yesterday the Russian MoD complained bitterly that the US was forcing them into a new arms race
    2. then this today indicates oil potentially heading south to the 50 USD a barrel and lower price range.

    We're heading for a record oil glut. pic.twitter.com/dbLbNpyou7

  17. #137
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    Ever since the capture of the two Russian active duty Spetsnaz--it seems social media cannot stop finding them in the web--they really do have some poor net OPSEC.

    #Russia's special forces soldiers identifying themselves on Russian TV channels all the time
    via @RobPulseNews pic.twitter.com/ccb9m4lT1B

    After taking #Debaltseve, #Russia's special forces in #Ukraine no longer hide their identifying insignia's:
    pic.twitter.com/7x3BqXrohd

  18. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This is what makes US foreign policy a bit strange and supports the concept that the US has thrown the Ukraine under the bus---if one takes a look at this DoS Kerry statement one could in fact conclude that he is critiquing the Ukraine as much as Russia.

    BUT in the last ten days Ukrainian loses have been high in just attempting to keep Russian troops and her mercenaries from crossing the contact line and even OSCe has verified relentless shellings of Ukrainian positions and YET this statement comes out of DoS. On top of it the UA is not responding in kind unless truly threatened with being overrun by Russian troops.

    Example—yesterday they returned fire with 82mm mortars when the Russian were firing 122mm and 152mm heavy artillery at them.

    Does this DoS statement make sense to anyone other than Kerry himself.

    WASHINGTON – Instead of trading mutual accusations of shelling and violation of the Minsk agreement, the parties to the Ukrainian conflict should take greater efforts to implement these agreements through negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said.

    Does Kerry truly not realize that unless there is a verified silent ceasefire with no fire coming from anyone—negotiations will never work????

    If you are the Ukraine--would you stop to smell the coffee when you are getting shelled and ground attacked and still have POWs the mercenaries have not exchanged--dare say I would not--noticed Kerry went into none of that.

    It is almost like he is just giving the problem "lip service".
    Maybe the DoS should spent sometime with the Ukrainian forward units and then as a Vietnam vet he would appreciate the "shellings".

    Is it that hard to call a spade a spade even in the diplomatic world???????

    How "one" ceasefire violation looks like:
    There were 400 explosions from incoming Russian tank, mortar etc. shells overnight in #Marinka


    Pictures
    #Marinka today. Russians shell it with all they have including #Grad missiles and 152 mm artillery
    .
    via ATO pic.twitter.com/MsJjbDVXVP

  19. #139
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    Zbigniew Brzezinski ✔ @zbig
    Do the Germans/French/Italians who don’t want to defend their NATO Baltic allies feel the US shouldn’t defend GR/FR/IT if they’re attacked?

    Seems that the Russian Army hides Strela 10s in a medical unit clearly marked by a red cross.
    pic.twitter.com/KyqKGPr67z

    #Shyrokyne: VIDEO by Noah Brooks @NoahBrooks99 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ybBgQlcQVw

    This is important for the Baltic NATO members—
    Lithuanian MoD: Lithuanian Government just green-lighted signing Status Of Forces Agreement with the United States

  20. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I have commented here a number of times on the apparent fact that Facebook has become quite proRussian either because of the oligarch investment into it or the fact that a Russian oligarch controls the EU operations of Facebook—but the company has become a critical link in the Russian propaganda war and seems to not care if they are called out on it.


    RFE/RL ✔ @RFERL
    "Tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian bloggers no longer feel safe on Facebook"
    http://bit.ly/1Tqqd6r pic.twitter.com/j4h5ymTwE1

    Notice this massive despite is not being mentioned at all in the US mainstream IT media and Facebook user groups--it should especially when they fully understand the sheer size of the Russian influence inside Facebook.
    Facebook’s block policy accused of facilitating pro-Kremlin trolls | World news | The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...attacks-russia

    It is just not only Facebook—Twitter as well has been played very effectively by Russian trolls and runs then from the problems when it has been pointed out--BUT they had a Russian oligarch invest over 700M USDs so maybe that is the reason.

    Yep! @twitter blocks tweets with link to pravyy sektor website @Support pic.twitter.com/FR3hQ3TsIW

    Censorship of #Ukraine web resources in Twitter detected. RT!
    @twitter @Support pic.twitter.com/1ef34JAyru

    Seems the US social media companies worry about the USD not about US "values".
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-17-2015 at 04:09 PM.

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