Light humor to go along with the extremely heavy shellings tonight---
Because of the food embargo, Russia has developed a new balanced diet pyramid for its citizens to follow Russia ban pic.twitter.com/kn1HOWOITS
Ukraine General Staff confirms: #Russia|n forces seized #Novolaspa and are near #Starohnativka now
pic.twitter.com/smmE85BL9u
Militants prepare armed provocations, evacuate families http://www.unian.info/war/1111288-mi...-families.html …
Not sure if it's really from tonight but if, #Russia|ns moving a lot of artillery tonight:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3VuNoJccC8 …
WAY to many shelling and ground attack reports flowing in—almost one every second or two for hours now—the Ukrainians are into about the 0020 timeframe and it getting heavier.
Around 0020 it slacked for a period but Russians and her mercenaries are back up and shelling again—maybe they had an early morning coffee before reloading.
Will pick up the reporting tomorrow morning---
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-13-2015 at 09:43 PM.
Madrid via Turkey being attacked again and Dubai via China and now Belgium--has been in both cases going on all night long.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Let’s see does the below reflect any being achieved with a single telephone call between Kerry and Lavrov---nothing absolutely nothing is achieved.
Especially when not a single major Western leader ie Obama, Hollande and Merkel—have not say a single word or comment on the current major Russian offensive—as if they want it swept under the rug.
95 attacks of Russian forces on August, 13. Heavy artillery and MLRS http://liveuamap.com pic.twitter.com/xRR1SY3CK1
2 Ukr KIA, 1 WIA reported in the airport area in shelling yesterday evening
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php...692463&fref=ts …
Novotroitske was under 120-mm mortar fire from 6PM till midnight. Several GRAD salvos hit #Avdiivka and #Optyne at night.
Staroignatievka #Starohnativka
It rumbled all night https://twitter.com/Staroignatievca/...34489343066113 …
Sector M: Around 10PM russians shelled w BM-21 GRAD #Talakivka, #Pavlopil, #Starohnativka. Talakivka & Starohnativka hit also w 152-mm arty
Avdiivka
Around 3AM the plant was shelled again.
At 3:30AM direct hit to steel plant.
At 4:50AM GRADs incoming. https://twitter.com/audrius1977/stat...58419973914624 …
Dzerzhynsk 4:40AM
The monotonous dull volleys started again. Some tow. Artemovo, some tow. Shumy. https://twitter.com/blessmaster/stat...03806243520513 …
Avdiivka 4:52AM
About 20 GRADs incoming. https://twitter.com/fingerw80/status/632008637473533952 …
Donetsk 5:07AM
Again GRADs https://twitter.com/ADivinorum/statu...10739557896192 …
Donetsk 5:07AM
Second package of morning GRADs went apparently again towards #Optyne.
No Ukr return fire. https://twitter.com/nixer79/status/632011572324499456 …
#Donetsk #Makeevka 4:52
Mmorning GRAD, full package, all outgoing from Grigoryevska dumps - Mineralne area. https://twitter.com/nixer79/status/632007324509556736 …
Kerry needs to double check about his call to the Russian FM Larvov—if anything Russian troops are actually into a formal offensive mode staging right now and YET he just talks.
Guess the US calls telephone calls a new form of foreign policy??
Maybe this video might help Obama, Kerry and the entire 700 person staff of the NSC figure out that Putin is not going to back down unless straight forward forcefull measures are announced and carried out—but again this President will not do anything as he has more fear of his “legacy” going badly than the loses of Ukrainian military personal and civilians.
He seems to prefer a true war in Central Europe than the necessary actions that do need to be taken to get the total attention of Putin---ie ATMs to the Ukraine---
Obama and Kerry have argued that by sending ATMs to the Ukraine that would provoke Putin to escalate—BUT is he not now actually escalating WITHOUT the ATMs—so sending them will not trigger something that is already happening???
The following might just help the entire NSC visualize the true extent of Russian territorial expansion inside the Ukraine. Remember it was the NSC, Kerry and Obama who pressured the Ukraine into unilateral moves that I think actually triggered this latest fighting.
A year ago and now, pictorially @hyeva_maryinka pic.twitter.com/Icb3Zifzq0
A call from Elenovka: something is brewing, lot of armor vehicles, they don't dig in, seems like prepare for attack https://twitter.com/Volnovakha/statu...02222478901248 …
Novolaspa/Starolaspa: Tymchuk reports on vehicle concentrations, perhaps they want to break thru the front
Tymchuk a former UAF LTC who fought in Iraq has had solid intel reports for over a year now.
And also seen many reports of RU equipment and manpower amassing a north from that area. https://twitter.com/xuilolala/status/632105600302907392 …
Called #Olenivka, they say a lot of equipment massed, but not digging trenches, looks like preparing offensive." https://twitter.com/Volnovakha/statu...02222478901248 …
Turchinov: we will go on high alert, mobilize more troops if Russia will continue to escalate situation further in Donbas.
In one line: something is brewing in occupied Donetsk region...
Based on the countless statements by Russia and her mercenaries—ALL and I mean ALL heavy weapons have been pulled back and they are in full compliance with Minsk2—OR they say???
As all heavy arms were 'pulled back', here in #Avdiivka probably fell a meteorite today" https://twitter.com/rechnikato/statu...99165133271040 …
Massive enemy attack causes major destruction in Artemove
http://www.unian.info/war/1111577-ma...-artemove.html … pic.twitter.com/2iEpFJE0jk
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, August 14, 00:00 EET pic.twitter.com/EXSESekEOr
Donetsk didn't sleep well all night: ruscists shelled everything around the city, got some fire back.
Yesterday militants 15 times attacked Ukrainian positions in Mariupol sector. 3 times using GRAD MLRS - Sec. M spox
http://m.0629.com.ua/news/924728
Militants intensified attacks on Ukr positions in #Mariupol area. Fired Grad upon Talakivka, Pavlopil, Starohnativka http://www.0629.com.ua/news/924728
Militants fired on Mariinka and Krasnohorivka with heavy artillery. Ukrainian soldier was wounded - RSA
http://112.ua/ato/v-doneckoy-obl-v-r...ga-251953.html …
More serious problems with the current OSCE-SMM in the Ukraine—they seem to want to observe everywhere there is now shellings and or fighting BUT is exactly where they should be---
Who the fxxxxxx is Hug trying to convince? It's we (joe-public/joe-military) who are informing #OSCE_SMM where to look! https://twitter.com/uatodaytv/status/632110672021557248 …
One would think they could tap into social media to stay informed???
Militants block removal of Ukrainian soldiers' bodies from Donbas
http://www.unian.info/war/1111550-mi...om-donbas.html … pic.twitter.com/QxjjToKqbb
In Donetsk, the militants of "DNR" looking for Ukrainian saboteurs http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-augu...-for-ukrainian … pic.twitter.com/Y7R4pYFKz3 via @novostidnua
Lots of military police on Donetsk streets, car searches are on the increase. Lots of military equip movement in past 48 hrs.
Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
@uascan intense RUAF VHF traffic in south Baltic Sea: SU24 and SU27?
Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
RUAF VHF comms consistent with SU24s in south Baltic Sea
Eight Russian Battalion-Level Tactical Groups Entered Ukraine a Year Ago – General Staff
http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/295...ral-staff.html …
Ukraine is preparing an asymmetric response to sanctions of Russia http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-augu...ic-response-to …
This week’s Top Extremism- and Terrorism-Related Stories in Russia http://extremistrussia.com/2015/08/1...4-august-2015/ …
IMPORTANT!
"Civilians from #Styla evacuated (by RU) to Novyi Svit" https://twitter.com/hu_WarWar84/stat...34045955158016 …
Russia|ns evacuated civilians from #Styla to Novyi Svit, all taken by bus. RU Equipment and manpower is gathering now.
My mother said that all taken out by bus."
RU equipment and manpower also accumulating in that area, you know what's next.
And this was yesterday:
Road from #Starobeshevo to #Styla closed.
Same from #Dokuchajevsk to #Styla.
Shellings are on again………
Staroignatievka #Starohnativka 13:16
Artillery pounding. https://twitter.com/Staroignatievca/...33731524956161 …
Col. Lysenko: For the 3rd day in a row militants used MLRS Grad in the western outskirts of Donetsk pic.twitter.com/3V1QU3Tlsr
Lysenko: 1 flight of enemy UAV was recorded within the military operation area. 1 RU UAV was detected above the Crimean administration line
ATO spokesperson: One Ukrainian serviceman KIA, 6 were wounded in action in last 24 hours
Col. Lysenko: In Mariupol sector, from Aug 1, 19 civilians were killed, 54 civil persons were wounded from militants actions
ATO spox: At the frontline stretching from Novhorodske to Avdiyivka, Novobahmutivka was a single area of of military confrontation.
Col. Lysenko: To the north of Horlivka, militants shelled Kirove & Novhorodske.
Col. Andriy Lysenko: Attack of militants sabotage-reconnaissance group was repelled by UA servicemen near Semyhirya.
ATO spox: Near Horlivka enemy concentrated their activity to the north of the city.
Col. Andriy Lysenko: Donetsk sector: several enemy armed provocations were recorded near Svitlodarsk.
Col. Lysenko: At the frontline stretching from Popasna to Troitske – stand-down.
Col. Lysenko: Bakhmut road area: enemy shelled UA positions near Nyzhnie and Zolote, militants provocation took place near Novotoshkivske.
Col. Lysenko: Near Pavlopil and Orlivske attacks of enemy artillery and MLRS Grad were also recorded.
ATO spox: Near Starohnativka, enemy attacked UA positions with 152-mm artillery and in the evening fired with MLRS Grad
Col. Lysenko: Mariupol sector: Enemy use howitzers and heavy mortars at the frontline from Novotroitske to Talakivka both day and night
ATO spokesperson: In the area of Krasnohorivka and Maryinka situation is somewhat calmer: heavy armament was not used.
More light humor as Russian forces stage today for general offense—after more than four weeks of artillery and rocket shellings to pre the battlefield per typical Russian attack doctrine.
In Russia, Duma officials read news how West is again "deeply troubled-very concerned" about the situation in Ukraine pic.twitter.com/pWxBG2KFDu
There's so much sanctioned food to be destroyed that the bar in State Duma Building supersized its Bloody Mary pic.twitter.com/yGOAjNLzqq
Russia's new nuclear-powered icebreaker will keep the Northern Sea Route open all winter pic.twitter.com/JLUQRKAsTO
Russia's BQ Mobile introduced a phone with a bottle opener. This is not a joke. pic.twitter.com/94rsH4rYWe
Russia's 35th humanitarian aid convoy is being blessed in Rostov before crossing the border to Ukraine pic.twitter.com/XPlb5iOhC2
ATO spox: 1 KIA, 6 WIA yesterday.
Again, who to believe?
One Ukr servicemen said they had 2 KIA yesterday evening near the Donetsk airport.
MoD and ATO speaker Motuzyanik said that all helicopters are safe, info on downed one near Artemivsk is fake
The state border service reported armed clash on the border with Russia with smugglers pic.twitter.com/XTTj1GEjOK http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-augu...armed-clash-on …
Turchynov: Russia masterminding provocation for Ukraine's Independence Day
http://www.unian.info/society/111162...dence-day.html … pic.twitter.com/qujfykBMsk
Searching the Earth: Essential geolocation tools for verification http://buff.ly/1DP916t by @EliotHiggins pic.twitter.com/2KhnbwQyxX
It's all about Volnovakha (which in turn is all about Mariupol north flank).
Maybe RU push from north (Styla) and east (Novolaspa) too?
Politicians cling to Minsk like migrants cling to liferafts (EU knows about both). Russian forces attack. Aim: take more Ukrainian territory
It is as simple as that and the entire West does nothing.
11:56AM
"Huge queue at #Volnovakha checkpoint towards #Mariupol almost till #Buhas"
(3-4km) https://twitter.com/BylByleva/status/632137316035862528 …
Appears Ukrainians know more about what Putin is up to than the entire 700 person US NSC does these days.
Appears the civilians were correct---
Volnovakha 13:15
"20-30mins ago... heavy volleys in the distance. About triangle #Mykolaivka-#Styla-#Petrivske." https://twitter.com/solomazheka/stat...33457414631424 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-14-2015 at 11:02 AM.
Volunteers report heavy shelling on positions near Donetsk airport overnight. Militants used GRAD, Tanks, SPGs, BMP
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...42&__tn__=%2As …
Militants also shelled Opytne and Vodyane with GRAD MLRS. Attacked positions near Pisky with mortars and machine guns
Are these the 7 BUK missile parts as reported by RTL? http://bit.ly/1N6wim7 & http://bit.ly/1NuixM8 pic.twitter.com/PsILrFIPn7
Lying is easy when you are Russian propagandist. Just turn everything you say 180 degrees... https://twitter.com/WBStevens/status/632115900796248064 …
This is what is called the Russian Orwellian doublespeak---say something but mean something else.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-14-2015 at 11:52 AM.
Tymchuk: Russians continue to bring reinforcements to #Novolaspa - #Starolaspa area, manpower, armor, tanks http://espreso.tv/news/2015/08/14/bo...tankovyy_vzvod …
Russians are amassing equipment in #Staromykhailivka too. https://twitter.com/hyeva_maryinka/s...52604445908992 …
Militants from Mortars and GRAD fired towards Hnutove CP. About 40 shells landed near the checkpoint - Border guards
http://dpsu.gov.ua/ua/about/news/news_8233.htm …
Head of Russian Railways Yakunin said that US is guilty of "disaster" in Ukraine http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-augu...aid-that-us-is …
Massive enemy attack causes major destruction in Artemove http://www.unian.info/war/1111577-ma...-artemove.html …
More #Avdiivka @novostidnua_en pic.twitter.com/btuAv9yCVO
Avdiivka, #5, Timiryazeva St, Aug13 shelling aftermath @666_mancer pic.twitter.com/YSe2x2PuiH More photos at https://vk.com/wall-1206792_531768 …
Main power lines are down---
Avdiivka today @Ukr_Che pic.twitter.com/KSjNgkrtuq
BU found an Arsenal of weapons in the center of Kyiv http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-augu...-the-center-of …
In Kharkiv SBU detained saboteurs who prepared an explosion on the railway http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-augu...s-who-prepared …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-14-2015 at 12:30 PM.
The #Russia|ns woke up, shelling started in multiple places in eastern #Ukraine
Ukrainian artillery destroys terrorist warehouse with ammunition and fuel
http://www.unian.info/war/1111711-uk...-and-fuel.html … pic.twitter.com/RM57KI0YT2
19:31 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster Landings in Nakhalivka so far - I hear blasts from there
Russian Spetsnaz is on the move again-beaten back---
Today, militants continued to use heavy weapons including GRAD. UKR forces repelled DRG near Syze - ATO press center
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...12&__tn__=%2As …
19:29 #Dzerzhynsk @partizan201415 Zabalka along Gertsena can hear landings clearly
19:29 #Dzerzhynsk @VFjiVv4eYK3kcc3 I can see huge pillar of smoke and fire behind #Nakhalivka
19:23 #Dzerzhynsk @hdzerz Incoming on 8th micro-ds, it's in smoke, hit at slag heap
19:21 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster Strong voltage drops, one block is already without electricity
19:20 #Dzerzhynsk-#Mayorks @oksi_art incoming 122mm from #Horlivka
19:17 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster They are pounding fanwise at the town. Landings almost near us so far
19:13 #Dzerzhynsk @VFjiVv4eYK3kcc3 [my] house in the center is in a whirl
19:10 #Dzerzhynsk @pereimenovannyi Incoming from #Horlivka started, they fly over our heads, I'm in #Artemove now
19:07 #Dzerzhynsk @VFjiVv4eYK3kcc3 Very strong incoming
More confirmation of exactly which Russian Airborne units have been fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Russian airborne troops on a roll, now Putin awards Ivanovo and Tula paratroopers for heroism and bravery pic.twitter.com/MAkBs6EVnA
There has been some serious concerning the past about this since their have a very close relationship to the Russian State Security FSB.
Exclusive: Russian antivirus firm #Kaspersky Lab faked malware to harm rivals
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0QJ1CR20150814 … #Russia pic.twitter.com/Whb4b1ws7p
One of the current three geo political goals of Putin and they have been stated numerous times in the last year—is;
1. disconnect totally the US from Europe
Russia knows only to well the Iranian missile development is well advanced and they are capable of launching missile strikes against NATO.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0QJ0UB20150814
Russia steps up demand for U.S. to drop European missile shield
MOSCOW | By Gabriela Baczynska
Russia urged the United States on Friday to scrap plans to station parts of a missile shield system in Europe now that Iran has reached an agreement with world powers to limit its nuclear program.
Moscow has long opposed the plan, which it sees as a threat to its nuclear deterrence, and vowed to retaliate if it goes ahead. Washington has previously assured Moscow the shield was meant as protection from "rogue" states like Iran, and not directed against Russia.
Since the July agreement under which Tehran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for an easing of U.N., U.S. and European Union sanctions, Moscow has stepped up its rhetoric against the missile shield.
"We don't see any reason to continue with the program, let alone at such an accelerated pace and with a clear aim at the Russian nuclear potential," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters.
The latest spat threatens to further worsen a deep chill in ties between Moscow and Washington, now at their lowest point since the Cold War because of the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week said Barack Obama "was not telling the truth" in comments he made in 2009 linking the need for a missile shield to what the president called the "real threat" from Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile activity.
"ARTIFICIAL ARGUMENTS"
At the time, Obama said: "As long as the threat from Iran persists, we will go forward with a missile defense system that is cost-effective and proven. If the Iranian threat is eliminated, we will have a stronger basis for security, and the driving force for missile defense construction in Europe will be removed."
Moscow says those comments mean that with the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue, Washington should now walk away from the missile shield plan.
But William Stevens, spokesman for the U.S. embassy in Moscow, said even if the agreement was fully implemented, it did not annul the threat from Iran's ballistic missiles that Obama also mentioned back in 2009.
Under the July deal, U.N. sanctions on Iran's ballistic missiles program will stay in place for eight years.
"As long as Iran goes on developing and deploying ballistic missiles, the U.S. together with its allies and partners will be working to ensure protection from this threat, including through deploying the NATO missile shield system," Stevens said.
Ryabkov said Moscow ruled out the possibility of using mid-range ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads to target Europe.
"So I conclude that the U.S. administration is artificially stitching arguments together behind a decision to continue and increase the pace of creating the European missile shield that was in fact taken for different reasons," he said.
If the shield goes ahead, Russia has said it would retaliate, including by deploying short-range Iskander ballistic missiles in its enclave of Kaliningrad, on the border with NATO members Poland and Lithuania.
Ryabkov also said Russia and Iran had agreed on two bilateral deals as part of implementing the wider nuclear agreement, and were now discussing the details.
He said Russia would take in some 8 tonnes of low-enriched uranium from Iran in exchange for supplies of natural uranium. Moscow and Tehran would also produce medical isotopes at Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment facility.
OSCE SMM observed Russian (hybrid) forces in Donetsk using Aistyonok artillery radar http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=bec_1421352728 … and http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/135211 …
Horlivka #Zaytseve battle. #Ukraine's positions are being fired upon by machine guns and grenade launchers.
20:05 #Dzerzhynsk @gg_artem They say milk plant at Zabalka was hit
19:59 #Horlivka @_John__Carter_ Volleys from city center as these days
19:48 #Dzerzhynsk @TarasUkrop_ Very loud,there wasn't such loud long ago. Hum, power is periodically down. Windows vibrate
19:45 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Rumble, projectiles are hissing
19:45 #Horlivka Kalinovka @Xykalinovka Loud
19:45 #Horlivka @adochek And artillery volleys resumed
19:44 #Horlivka @adochek Mortar rounds, 4 sec interval betw shot/blast, not nearby
19:42 #Horlivka Central city ds @15SVET15 2 mortar rounds, 2 incoming. RUS 'Samooborona Gorlovki' admin lied that was from Dzerzhynsk
19:41 #Horlivka @andreyboss77 Volleys and landings started
19:39 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster "UKR one outgoing, hmm"
19:38 #Horlivka @adochek Rumble also here for now, SPG volleys
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...ith-putin.html
08.14.151:13 AM ET
Pentagon Fears It’s Not Ready for a War With Putin
The U.S. military has run the numbers on a sustained fight with Moscow, and they do not look good for the American side.
A series of classified exercises over the summer has raised concerns inside the Defense Department that its forces are not prepared for a sustained military campaign against Russia, two defense officials told The Daily Beast.
Many within the military believe that 15 years of counter terrorism warfare has left the ground troops ill prepared to maintain logistics or troops levels should Russia make an advance on NATO allies, the officials said.
Among the challenges the exercises revealed were that the number of precision-guided munitions available across the force were short of the war plans and it would be difficult to sustain a large troop presence.
“Could we probably beat the Russians today [in a sustained battle]? Sure, but it would take everything we had,” one defense official said. “What we are saying is that we are not as ready as we want to be.”
One classified “tabletop exercise” or “TTX”—a kind of in-office war game—“told us that the wars [in Iraq and Afghanistan] have depleted our sustainment capability,” a second defense official explained, using military jargon for the ability to maintain a fight. The exercise was led by the Department of Defense and involved several other federal agencies.
In recent months, the top officers of the military have begun to call Putin’s Russia an “existential threat” to the United States. The results of those exercises—and Russian-backed forces’ latest advance in Ukraine—didn’t exactly tamp down those fears.
But these concerns about readiness and sustainability are not universally held—not even inside the Pentagon. Nor is there a consensus about the kind of risk Putin's Russia really poses. Everyone in the U.S. security establishment acknowledges that Moscow has roughly 4,000 nuclear weapons, the world’s third largest military budget, and an increasingly bellicose leader. There’s little agreement on how likely that threat could be.
“A war between Russian and NATO is an unlikely scenario given the severe repercussions Russia would face. In addition to the overwhelming reaction it would provoke, Russia’s aging military equipment and strained logistical capabilities make a successful offensive attack a very difficult proposition for them,” one U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast. “In short, direct conflict with Russia is a low probability, high-risk situation. The challenge of Putin’s erratic leadership is that low probability events are slightly more probable.”
The U.S. military still has the upper hand in so many ways, after all. But there are limits—severe limits—on those advantages. For its air power, for example, the U.S. military would be leaning on worn out fighter pilots and limited maintenance abilities for their planes. And the surveillance drones needed would have to be drawn from other conflict zones.
“Against an adversary like Russia, we can’t take the kind of air dominance we’ve had in conflicts since 9/11 for granted,” a second defense official explained. “Any conflict of significant magnitude against an adversary like Russia means we’d need to commit airmen and resources that are now operating in other parts of the world at a rate that minimizes their ability to train for that kind of fight.”
The official added, “We may very well be able to provide the airpower that would allow us and our allies to prevail in a high-end fight, but the current state of our air forces definitely doesn’t make that a sure bet.”
Around the time of that TTX, in June, the U.S. military also conducted four major field exercises with its NATO counterparts, called Allied Shield, consisting of 15,000 troops and 19 member countries. In March, Russia conducted its own exercises, at one point deploying as many as 80,000 personnel.
“The focus of the exercises is on what each side sees as its most exposed areas, with NATO concentrating on the Baltic States and Poland whilst Russia is focusing primarily on the Arctic and High North, Kaliningrad, occupied Crimea, and its border areas with NATO members Estonia and Latvia,” is how one reported summarized the dueling manuevers (PDF).
And like the tabletop exercise, Allied Shield suggested the U.S. could not maintain a sustained fight against the Russians.
Moreover, Russia’s blend of special forces, local proxies, weaponized propaganda, cyber espionage, and sneak attacks has many in the U.S. military struggling to figure out how to respond. Of course, they want to check Russian aggression—especially if Putin makes a move for America’s NATO allies in the Baltics. They’re not sure how do to that without starting down the path towards World War III. Especially now that Russia has declared itself open to the notion of using first-strike nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict.
The Daily Beast’s Anna Nemtsova, who is currently with U.S. military trainers in Ukraine, asked one of them what they would they do if their units were suddenly surrounded by Russian-backed forces.
“Let me think for a moment, that is a difficult one,” the American soldier said.
At his last briefing with reporters, Army Gen. Raymond Odierno, the outgoing Chief of Staff of the Army, said NATO exercises conducted in Europe exposed even small challenges that could have outsized impact in a fight against Russia.
“One of the things we learned is the logistical challenges we have in Eastern Europe. For example, Eastern Europe has a different gauge railroad than Western Europe [where U.S. has traditionally trained] does so moving supplies is a more difficult. So we are learning great lessons like that,” Odierno said.
“We may very well be able to provide the airpower that would allow us to prevail in a fight, but the current state of our air forces definitely doesn’t make that a sure bet.”
More serious was Odierno’s warning that “only 33 percent” of the U.S. Army’s brigades are sufficiently trained to confront Russia. That’s far short of the 60 percent needed. Odierno said that he does not believe the Army will reach those levels for several more years.
During the height of the Cold War, there were roughly 250,000 U.S. troops deployed to Europe. After the first Gulf War, that number fell to roughly to 91,000. That number today stands at 31,000—although some additional troops have been added since the stealth invasion of Ukraine.
And yet, many throughout government are not nearly as worried as the military. In fact, these insiders suspect that the Pentagon’s warning is more a means to seek leverage amid threats of budget cuts. The military is hoping to stave off major cuts to its ground force and cash flow, as the war in Afghanistan winds down.
Lawrence Korb—a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Center for American Progress, which is closely aligned with the Obama White House and the Hillary Clinton campaign, said that he believes the military is taking advantage of Russian aggressions over the last two years to fight its budget battles.
Further, Korb is not convinced the exercises reflect reality, noting the U.S. spends roughly $600 billion on its defense compared to Russia’s $60 billion. Russian weapons are far less modern, and Putin had to abandon his $400 billion plan to upgrade them earlier this year as the Russian ruble fell.
“We’d clean their clocks. [Russian troops are] not that good. They are not as modern,” Korb said. “I think [the military] took advantage of recent Russian aggression because it has become clear we would not use large ground armies” to confront groups like the self proclaimed Islamic State.”
The U.S. military is now worried about Russia “in the same way the Navy [once] talked about the Chinese” to stop cuts to its budget, he added.
But Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, who retired in 2012 as the commander of U.S. Army Europe, said that the Russian threat existed far before the latest budget squabbles. And when he raised them in 2010, they fell on deaf ears.
“We were beating the drum of Russia in 2010 and we were told [by Washington officials], ‘You are still in the Cold War.’ All the things we predicted would happen, happened, but it wasn’t at the forefront of the time,” Hertling said.
“This gets to a lack of trust between the government and the military,” Hertling added. “We were monitoring Russian movement and they were increasing not only their budget but their pace of operation and their development of new equipment. They were repeatedly aggressive and provocative even though we were trying to work with them.”
Since then, the Army has shrunk rapidly—by 80,000 troops. Should Congress enact the across-the-board budget cuts known as sequestration, the Army could fall from 450,000 soldiers to 420,000, making it the smallest U.S. ground force since the end of World War II. Odierno has called such figures dangerous.
“The unrelenting budget impasse has compelled us to degrade readiness to historically low levels,” Odierno said last month at a conference.
Either way, the London-based European Leadership Network released a report Wednesday, and concluded the dueling large scale military exercises are aggravating tensions, not deterring the opposing side, as intended.
“Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia. We do not suggest that the leadership of either side has made a decision to go to war or that a military conflict between the two is inevitable, but that the changed profile of exercises is a fact and it does play a role in sustaining the current climate of tensions in Europe,” found the report,
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