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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #1801
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    We know the Russians are getting ready for something. We just don't know where." - Gen. Odierno https://news.vice.com/article/the-ar...rce=vicenewsfb

    My comments to cover the weekend---the war with the continued shellings and ground attacks are a given--right now IMHO the Russian military and Putin are trying to ascertain if a true general offense is politically and economically worth the pain that would hit their economy which is floundering badly right now.

    IMO Russia has been attempting an actual offensive --they just cannot seem to get it on track and find a breakthrough point and the UAF is doing an excellent job at blunting those attempts and not giving the Russian arm really a solid target to attack using their deep battle doctrine--if the UAF continues this frustration of the their deep battle Putin will have an interesting decision to make in about three weeks--go for it totally and risk a war with NATO and the US or back off and figure out how to claim a "victory" and go home.

    Shellings have been ongoing today in several major hotspots along the eastern front.

    Nothing on US/EU/NATO politics will change by Monday as it appears they all do not really know what they are doing.

    So again to all---taking a much needed weekend---weather here in Berlin is great and no rain.

  2. #1802
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    From a great US based Professor who thoroughly understands Russia and the Ukraine.


    “Hybrid War as a War on Governance” – interview in Small Wars Journal of Mark Galeotti:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...-on-governance


    Usually, an interview means fifteen minutes spent on the phone with a journalist, the first ten of which are telling him or her the basics they should already know, and the outcome typically being a single slightly mangled and out-of-context quite in paragraph six. In this context, it was especially refreshing to have a long conversation with Octavian Manea on "hybrid wars" (not that the current conflict in Ukraine ought really to be called that) and generally the "new way of war" (or is it an old way, fought in a new world?), answering interesting and well-informed questions and then seeing the whole transcript posted on Small Wars Journal. How far more words translated into any more insight is for each reader to decide, but there it is for those of you interested in my thoughts.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-21-2015 at 04:38 PM. Reason: Quote marks and link added

  3. #1803
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Russia's propaganda has been so effective that we need to be on top of things. Tim Snyder noted that while Soviet propaganda tried to get people to actively support their ideological goals, Russian propaganda is geared toward inaction.

    Western publics are having difficulty shaking off the notion of Russia as a basket case during the Eltsin years. In comparison, Putin's firmness seems to many "reasonable", in the way that Hitler's opposition to Versailles seemed reasonable to many right through the Anschluss.

    Western Europe's capacity for inaction (other than their Libya adventure) is unbounded. Maybe Rumsfeld was right?

    In any event, I think the slow turning of the screw is the best policy from D.C., despite my attachment to the Ukrainian cause. The threat of Javelins and possibly "errant" Apaches and Warthogs (on vacation of course) appearing in the event of a breakout towards Kharkiv or Mariupol is a good place to sit tight for now.

    I don't think Russian tactics or strategy is particularly innovative or worthy of new terminology...but that's me...

    I DO think Ukraine deserves a Marshall Plan. In that respect NATO and the EU have been very lacking...
    Azor---typing this while floating down the Havel heading to Potsdam using for the first time a floating hotspot via T-Mobil--works great--speed is somewhat slow as it is jumping from cell tower to cell tower.

    Here is an aspect largely overlooked by the US, France and Germany---

    If we look at the Russian concert of non linear warfare an interesting question arises---is the current fighting in the eastern Ukraine really non linear warfare OR are we seeing an actual interstate war being carried out by an aggressive larger neighbor against a smaller country.

    Yes there are still elements of non linear warfare in play—ie cyber attacks, trolling, and weaponization of information which has not abated a single millimeter if anything it has picked up.

    BUT the actual fighting is actual combat between two nation states—yes the Russian military is using their Spetsnaz SOF but more in a recon and leading attack unit not in the traditional behind the lines typical SF mode.

    Western leaders are inherently avoiding the big W word ie war because in their various languages and legal systems when war is in fact recognized then they are legally required to take certain actions against Russia which they really do not want to do.

    Example--that is why Obama uses the term "incursion" as it carries a different legal concept--if in fact the West would declare Russia as the aggressor then the UN becomes an interesting playground--ie in the UN Charter a country can be declared an aggressor state and it can lose it's UN sitting and the question of Russia the UNSC becomes even more interesting.

    The EU has all but called Russia an aggressor state via PACE and the OSCE but the various Foreign Ministries of say Germany and France still refrain from using the term aggressor.

  4. #1804
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    The role the US is playing in the Ukraine is typical for this administration and their rather weak NSC--meaning in the face of a breaking serious incident just play for time.

    There was today an article being carried by Bloomberg indicating that the US applied massive pressure on the interim Ukrainian government before the Presidential elections to refrain from taking any response to the Russian takeover of Crimea.

    There are many analysts publicly stating and that includes some critical Russian analysts that say the non action on the part of the Ukraien in defending the Crimea is actually what motivated both Putin and his military to make their move in the eastern Ukraine.

    So if in effect the US did apply massive pressure on the Ukraine--begs the simple question was it again an appeasement move designed to ensure Russia remains friendly with Obama and his NSC or was it just a stupid foreign policy move made with now thoughts behind it which is actually far more dangerous.

    IMO it was a combination of the two aspects--a stupid geo political move and wanting not to block a future path in dealing with Putin.

    Seems they did not notice that Putin has moved his military to a full scale nuclear alert and that he had moved in anti ship missiles to protect his troops.

    The moves made by the US in Libya were similar actually--the US fully understood that it was the French driving the Libyan actions and yet when the US could that influenced the French to stand down they did nothing.

    Yes should have Gadhafi been removed --at some point--BUT by his own civil society not via Western airpower and drone attacks.

    Gadhafi was a thorn in everyone's side but he had given up his nuclear WMD components and had guarded the massive chemical weapons sites religiously even through the fighting against him.

    I still cannot see even today a clearly defined reason to kick him out other than the French wanting him out--it was not in the best interests of the US so I am still today not sure exactly why Obama and his NSC never said a public word--UNLESS Obama wanted a legacy win.

  5. #1805
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    The Russian military is developing a new flame-throwing system — via @IBTimes http://read.bi/1I1ahy3 pic.twitter.com/5tbxVqNFGj

    Russia|ns attacked #Ukraine positions 102 times yesterday. Shelling increasing again, two days before Ukraines Independence Day.

    MAP----
    Ukr troops incurred no casualties in the last day, 8 servicemen were wounded in action - #ATO daily report http://mediarnbo.org/2015/08/22/zved...to-22-serpnya/

    Only two UAF WIA on Thursday----

    Shyrokyne @HromadskeRadio "ghost settlement, only cats and dogs live permanently here" pic.twitter.com/AukyXpVTF5 img credit: Taras Chmut

    Poroshenko: aggressor planned to seize another 8 regions of Ukraine
    http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/08/22/7078641/

    Ukrainian ex-Security Service chief in custody over #Euromaidan killings
    http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1440195919
    pic.twitter.com/b1Wwicw9Q6

    9P135 tripod from a 9K111 Fagot ATGM, used as a tripod for a PKT coaxial machine gun #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/QUwsE0lUfm

    VIDEO: Residents of Mariinka continue to suffer from militant shelling
    https://m.youtube.com/feed/subscriptions … pic.twitter.com/bz2yAJEWps

    Little known history about the death of Russian service members in August 2014—there were solid rumors that even though the Ukraine took a beating in one encirclement the Russian loses were exceptionally high—some say as high as 500 plus KIA/WIA.

    BREAKING Russians knowingly killed their own servicemen who escorted Ukrainian Ilovaisk-withdrawal-convoy incl. POWs https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/sta...25352825294848

  6. #1806
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    AND the shellings are back on as usual—although a tad too early.


    12:45 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] since 12:00 booms and skirmishes are heard from hospital direction

    13:25 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] "[there were] hits on Lutuhyna St"

    13:21 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]"on the phone, there were impacts on pole on the head of Geolohichna St&like the church damaged"
    13:13 #Dnipropetrovsk @gdalinka Ambulances rushed [=maybe wounded are delivered w/ambulance aircraft]

    Donetsk @kozerog_62 [forum] "2:30am intense roar.. Along Shevchenko Blvd covered trucks column went as 'constant flow' tow/center"

    Donetsk @DnBend [RUS tucks] come every night, going over the bridge, turn to the market etc, also thru Gvardeyka https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/635030213718593536

    Donetsk @kozerog_62 [forum] She counter about 40 trucks, but saw those column not from the off

  7. #1807
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    http://www.newsweek.com/putins-war-f...-spirit-364834

    Putin’s War: Front-line Residents Discover Churchill’s Defiant Spirit

    By Nolan Peterson 8/21/15 at 11:17 AM

    08_21_Ukraine_01

    A man cries as he inspects debris while standing outside his damaged house, which according to locals was caused by recent shelling, in Donetsk, Ukraine, on August 17. Fighting flared between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists in two separate parts of eastern Ukraine overnight, with several civilians killed by shelling, Ukrainian police and separatist sources said. Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

    This story first appeared on The Daily Signal.

    A biography of Winston Churchill sits on Stephan Machsma’s desk. Machsma is the mayor of Sartana, Ukraine, and he is leading the town’s approximately 10,000 residents through their own darkest hour.

    On the night of August 16, starting around 10 p.m., combined Russian-separatist forces shelled Sartana with 122 mm and 152 mm artillery for about 25 minutes. The attack killed three, injured six and damaged 170 homes. It was the fifth time combined Russian-separatist weapons have struck Sartana, including a Grad rocket attack on October 4, 2014 that hit a funeral procession and killed seven.

    After the August 16 shelling, Machsma said he went to the local library and checked out the book on Churchill. “I want to use the experiences of great people for inspiration,” he said. “We cannot just learn from our mistakes.”

    Worse Than World War II

    Nina Konstantinovna, 87, was in the kitchen when the artillery began. A shell hit one meter from the wall of her home, collapsing a corner on the side facing adjacent Krasnoarmeyskaya Street and spraying shrapnel in her living room. “If I had been in my bed, I would have died,” she said, speaking three days later, standing with a cane in one hand.

    Although broken glass from a window shattered by the explosion wounded her, Konstantinovna credits a table covered in orthodox icons and a framed picture of her late husband (he died eight years ago) with the good luck that led to her survival. “There’s no other explanation,” she said.

    After the explosion, neighbors rushed over to pull Konstantinovna out of her smoke-filled home. She recalled sitting on a bench under the grapevine-covered trellis of her garden, waiting for the smoke to clear, unsure whether more artillery was coming. “It wasn’t this bad when the Germans attacked,” she added, referring to the invasion by Nazi Germany in 1941. “I never saw shelling like this.”

    Konstantinovna was too young to remember much of the Holodomor—Stalin’s government-organized mass famine from 1932 to 1933, which killed millions—but she remembers World War II clearly. When the Wehrmacht retreated in 1945, she covered her arms in chemicals to give her a rash so that she would be medically disqualified from being taken to forced labor camps in Germany.

    “We were young, and we weren’t so scared,” she said. “The Germans destroyed a lot of things, but we were safe from it.”

    Konstantinovna has been living in her home since 1958, and even though the damage is extensive, she doesn’t want to leave. “I want to live the rest of my life in this house,” she said.

    Sartana is an ethnic Greek enclave, and Konstantinovna is of Greek heritage. The local Greek society as well as the Ukrainian government is raising money to repair her home, she said, explaining that without the help, she would have to move.

    Konstantinovna’s son-in-law, Vasiliy Koktash, 62, also lives in Sartana. He is a factory worker at the nearby Azovmash manufacturing plant and a former sergeant in the Red Army. He worked on ballistic missiles. “I’m not scared or angry,” Koktash said. “I just want to focus on rebuilding and moving on.

    “But no one in my family died,” he added. “If they did, I’d feel differently.”

    Life Goes On

    On Wednesday, the third day after the attack, life had returned to normal in Sartana. It is a typical Ukrainian suburban town, comprising both factory workers and farmers, located about 10 kilometers from Mariupol’s city center. Brick homes painted in bright colors with vertical windows and pitched corrugated metal roofs line the dirt and gravel streets. The smokestacks of the nearby Ilyich Iron and Steel Works plant, endlessly churning out acrid smoke, distort the horizon.

    On Sartana’s streets, children and the elderly alike are out walking and riding bikes as young men in track suits stroll by talking on cellphones. People are waiting at bus stops. At the main intersection downtown, babushkas sell watermelons and potatoes.

    “There was no panic, but people are afraid,” Machsma said, describing the mood after the August 16 attack. “Nobody can tell if it will happen again.”

    “For me, I’m used to it,” Koktash said, speaking about the threat of rockets and artillery. “I’m so used to it that I didn’t worry. I didn’t even go to the basement.

    “We have our problems,” he added. “War is war.”

    Machsma said there is no early-warning system in place in Sartana (nor is there one in nearby Mariupol), which would trigger an air raid siren that could give residents a few valuable seconds to get to a shelter or off the streets during an attack like the one on August 16.

    Two of the fatalities in that attack were people caught on the street in the open with no warning to take cover from shrapnel. “Our early-warning system is when the power goes out,” Machsma said, referring to when artillery cuts through power lines, shutting off electricity.

    There is also no organized effort to teach civilians how to react during a bombardment. But after more than a year of war, with the fighting often only a few kilometers away, most citizens are now well versed in how to react. Even so, the stress of a life-or-death situation is one with which many civilians struggle.

    “When you ask people if they know what to do in an attack, they can write it for you on a piece of paper,” Machsma said. “But in the moment of an attack, they forget.”

    Instilling Fear Among Civilians

    Machsma blamed combined Russian-separatist forces for the August 16 attack. He said the artillery came from combined Russian-separatist-controlled territory and deliberately targeted a civilian area.

    The nearest fixed Ukrainian military position to the impact area is a checkpoint on a public road about two kilometers away. The nearest Ukrainian military base is more than five kilometers (straight-line distance) away. “I don’t understand at all what they were aiming at,” Machsma said.

    Ukrainian military officials say that attack was the latest in a pattern meant to instill fear in the population of Mariupol and surrounding villages. There is a mounting sense of frustration in the area toward the government in Kiev and its prosecution of the war, many residents admit. And by sporadically attacking civilian areas, some say, the combined Russian-separatist forces are looking to destabilize the region politically and create panic.

    In the aftermath of the attack, a government-appointed psychologist visited Konstantinovna to evaluate her for post-traumatic stress. “Now I’m scared of noises at night,” Konstantinovna said. “It’s hard to sleep.”

    “I don’t think it was the last bomb, and I don’t know what will happen the next day,” she added. “That’s why I’m scared.”

  8. #1808
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    Humor----

    Filming of "Mad Max: #Novorossiya" has begun, Max tries to get a #BUK over the border without being photographed pic.twitter.com/dnRAnJRDUj

    In the winter of 1982 #Putin ran the marathon in 1:58:30 w/o shoes in a forest, carrying a bear he'd killed with his bare hands #Beijing2015

    After a wild night out in #Moscow, #Lenin didn't quite make it back to mausoleum before sunrise pic.twitter.com/8ommGMUYnd

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    Russian propaganda “dream world”—they are truly in the “twilight zone”---

    DNR & LNR terrorists spread false maps with "planned major offensive by #Ukraine Army"
    https://www.facebook.com/euromaidanp...e=1&permPage=1 … pic.twitter.com/iUEgt4GuD7

    Russian propaganda is still trying to find that provocation reason to start their offensive even through is has been actually ongoing for four weeks now.

  10. #1810
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    For the Ukrainian Independent Day another 170 pieces of military equipment for the entire UAF on top of an already delivered 12K pieces.

    Chuhuyiv @banderenko Osa, BMPs, HMMWV, tanks, Gvozdika SPG, Kraz trucks, D-30, transport planes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQGjH5oSRrw

    А, не Пионы тоже были.
    Oh, no, there were also Pion SPGs, not just Gvozdika ones https://twitter.com/itsector/status/635041139775700992

    Ministry of Defense of #Ukraine is getting a lot of new equipment. Check the video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2619PIyr2DQ … pic.twitter.com/ryq30goXCY

  11. #1811
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    Back on Monday--slowly getting out of range of any cell tower.

    To all-a good weekend--the war will be there again on Monday.

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    Default Re:

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor---typing this while floating down the Havel heading to Potsdam using for the first time a floating hotspot via T-Mobil--works great--speed is somewhat slow as it is jumping from cell tower to cell tower.

    Here is an aspect largely overlooked by the US, France and Germany---

    If we look at the Russian concert of non linear warfare an interesting question arises---is the current fighting in the eastern Ukraine really non linear warfare OR are we seeing an actual interstate war being carried out by an aggressive larger neighbor against a smaller country.

    Yes there are still elements of non linear warfare in play—ie cyber attacks, trolling, and weaponization of information which has not abated a single millimeter if anything it has picked up.

    BUT the actual fighting is actual combat between two nation states—yes the Russian military is using their Spetsnaz SOF but more in a recon and leading attack unit not in the traditional behind the lines typical SF mode.

    Western leaders are inherently avoiding the big W word ie war because in their various languages and legal systems when war is in fact recognized then they are legally required to take certain actions against Russia which they really do not want to do.

    Example--that is why Obama uses the term "incursion" as it carries a different legal concept--if in fact the West would declare Russia as the aggressor then the UN becomes an interesting playground--ie in the UN Charter a country can be declared an aggressor state and it can lose it's UN sitting and the question of Russia the UNSC becomes even more interesting.

    The EU has all but called Russia an aggressor state via PACE and the OSCE but the various Foreign Ministries of say Germany and France still refrain from using the term aggressor.
    How was the Havel? I have a particular fondness for the Wild East - especially the lush countryside in the Summer.

    Well, when Great Britain was alone and Churchill decided to "set Europe on fire", the forms of warfare employed were non-linear. Rather than dismissing the SOE's activities as "hybrid warfare", the Germans regarded them as acts of war and responded accordingly. The "non-linear" nature of the SOE only invited German barbarity on captured operatives...

    War is war. Russia has been in a state of war with Ukraine the moment its forces openly annexed Crimea. Debating whether or not Russian forces MAY ALSO be present in Eastern Ukraine is double-think intended by the Kremlin to paralyze international opposition and used by the said opposition to ignore the obvious.

    We all know how Russia would react to "hybrid" warfare by a non-NATO member against it.

    The 2008 War with Georgia was about NATO, but Putin's Ukrainian adventure is squarely aimed at the EU. Russia does not want to get absorbed into the EU - it wants to be a first among equals - and it's own integration project is competing directly with the EU. Rather than operating under NATO's Article 5 threshold (which doesn't apply to Ukraine anyway), Putin is trying to operate under the EU's threshold.

    Unfortunately for the Kremlin, there was enough of a backbone in the West to apply sanctions. Irrespective of whether TOWs and Javelins are funnelled into Ukraine, neither side can back down. The EU and NATO could easily collapse over this issue, and Putin's Kremlin could be overthrown.

    How do you turn the screws on a nuclear power and not suffer blowback? It's a tricky situation. As for the UN, remember when the USSR and Germany were booted from the League of Nations?

  13. #1813
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    Russian army Donets river-crossing drill 24 May in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky https://t.co/mODoTFBLv pic.twitter.com/IPQ1RDNgOE via @el_roosevelt

    A year ago, DNR and what we later found out to be Russian forces took the Ukrainian town of Novoazovsk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrSb8G57cI

    Multiple reports of RU aviation over Luhansk, Alchevsk, seen from Schastye @Liveuamap

    77 attacks of Russian forces on Ukrainian Independence Day (-5) http://liveuamap.com pic.twitter.com/QGQ8qFb1il

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    Here is the results of the US, French and German unilateral appeasement moves forced on the Ukraine by Western leaders under a demand by Putin for a"sign of good faith".

    When will Western leaders more specificially Obama and his NSC wake up and realiye they committed a Munich 1938??

    This is the Russian "sign of good faith" and where is the Western response--no where to be seen and or heard from.

    Russian artillery overnight strikes at #Sopyne #Mariupol : 2 KIA Marines , 5 WIA (Donbass battalion, Marines). https://twitter.com/from_diana1/stat...86431312707584

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    WATCH: #Russia's fake #Ukraine war report exposed in Putin PR disaster http://shr.gs/QwW3ysL
    #RussiaLies pic.twitter.com/tXZwL24wrA

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    #News
    A fresh indication by the @OSCE_SMM, a Russian forces tank shelled an Ukrainian village under their control
    . pic.twitter.com/9IUGYB9sRO


    East #Ukraine this August. 30 killed and 165 wounded Ukrainian soldiers. pic.twitter.com/FyJzF1FpKj


    So much for the so called US social medai being Independent and for free speech???--virtually all of the US social media gaints have caved on demands by Russia in order to continue doing business in a fasicst state.

    So Russian fascist values are more important to them to protect than the values of the US--how strange is that???

    #Wikipedia Caves In, Avoids Being Banned in #Russia:
    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ia/528457.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    #News
    A fresh indication by the @OSCE_SMM, a Russian forces tank shelled an Ukrainian village under their control
    . pic.twitter.com/9IUGYB9sRO


    East #Ukraine this August. 30 killed and 165 wounded Ukrainian soldiers. pic.twitter.com/FyJzF1FpKj


    So much for the so called US social medai being Independent and for free speech???--virtually all of the US social media gaints have caved on demands by Russia in order to continue doing business in a fasicst state.

    So Russian fascist values are more important to them to protect than the values of the US--how strange is that???

    #Wikipedia Caves In, Avoids Being Banned in #Russia:
    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ia/528457.html
    1,8 secs btwn firing & impact indicates mortars had been fired from max 2,3 kms. Well WITHIN Russian controlled area. pic.twitter.com/QUSSsLDRSL

    Civilians in the video walk TOWARDS blast area. Looks like they were instructed and Russian TV tried to get victims. pic.twitter.com/Fwveup4xgs

    "Intelligence" of DNR: Ukrainian armed forces preparing to take Donetsk in double circle http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/23-augu...n-armed-forces … pic.twitter.com/ECH0vM3WCc

    Basurin of DNR: Ukrainian army will hit center of Donetsk with Scarab-B/Tochka-U tomorrow http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/23-augu...-army-will-hit … pic.twitter.com/nk6dCtUABQ

    'DNR' tested many times w 'Tochka-U'-like explosions at Donetsk Chemical Plant. Tomorrow they can explode 'dirty bomb' & blame Ukraine 4it.

    Russian militants in Pereval'sk pic.twitter.com/uN8A7sDffj http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/23-augu...s-in-perevalsk

    17 bodies of victims of the Russian-backed "Bryanka USSR" battalion found near #Luhanskhttp://euromaidanpress.com/2015/08/2...ssr-battalion/ … pic.twitter.com/sZUEJyWyGu
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-25-2015 at 05:25 PM.

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    Today, situation in Donbas deteriorated. From 00:00-07:00 militant attacks were recorded all along the front - ATO
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...16&__tn__=%2As

    ATO spox: Two Ukrainian servicemen KIA, nine were wounded in action in last 24 hours

    Ten brand new and covered GRADs hauled by trucks moving towards #Donetsk / #Makeevka:
    https://twitter.com/xuilolala/status/636225040430837761

    H21 highway, from Khartzysk to Makeevka, 10 trucks are hauling 10 Grads, all brand new, covered. https://twitter.com/PVB40/status/636224637517623296

    17:15 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca For already 2 hours one can hear monotone booms, like mortar rounds

    17:48 #Donetsk @nixer79 They moved northwards, maybe to the airport/#Spartak https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/636220073183735809

    19:10 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] All the same, battle in boarding school direction

    Today, 14:00 in Shakhtarsk, 12 BM-21 Grad vehicles went to Donetsk direction. https://twitter.com/SNEGNOEnashe/sta...19290488864768

    16:39 #Donetsk @nixer79 3 Kamaz trucks towinf small covered canons w/troops in body along Mira to Chelyuskintsev

    20:04 #Perevalsk @legion111113 dense black smoke is seen from #Perevalsk in direction #Bryanka-#Lomovatka

    ATO also confirms 2 Ukrainian marines were killed and 3 wounded during militant artillery attack near Sopyne last night.

    #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka "Such a thing near the east shop. During my drive to #Maryinka I saw half dozen more" pic.twitter.com/xU34U7Q50j

    During the daylight hours, militants somewhat reduced intensity of attacks, which were mainly in Donetsk area - ATO
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-25-2015 at 05:37 PM.

  19. #1819
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    Horlivka @ahab7822 Arrows show where it came from pic.twitter.com/HeGuInGhcO
    [When it was being hit] there were outgoing from Rtutny

    13:10 #Horlivka @ahab7822 I've been on Kirova, there's hell...
    [in the morning the area was shelled] fr/misc directions:N,maybe NE&NW

    These are file photos. However, 25 Jun video of Russian forces in occupied-Donbas training for river crossing

    Russian tank and motor rifle (mechanised infantry) have been training for deep water (river) crossing for 2 months pic.twitter.com/z9SB1F5tmw

    The Donets River border runs for about 40km east of Luhansk city, between Luhansk (UA) and Rostov (RU) regions.

    Turchynov: Russian troops have constructed 5 pontoon bridges across Donets River border with Ukraine for offensive http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/2238.html

    Blue truck parked alongside regular green ones.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrxPW_NhX2c … (06:15) pic.twitter.com/u2u8cLh3GU
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-25-2015 at 05:43 PM.

  20. #1820
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    How was the Havel? I have a particular fondness for the Wild East - especially the lush countryside in the Summer.

    Well, when Great Britain was alone and Churchill decided to "set Europe on fire", the forms of warfare employed were non-linear. Rather than dismissing the SOE's activities as "hybrid warfare", the Germans regarded them as acts of war and responded accordingly. The "non-linear" nature of the SOE only invited German barbarity on captured operatives...

    War is war. Russia has been in a state of war with Ukraine the moment its forces openly annexed Crimea. Debating whether or not Russian forces MAY ALSO be present in Eastern Ukraine is double-think intended by the Kremlin to paralyze international opposition and used by the said opposition to ignore the obvious.

    We all know how Russia would react to "hybrid" warfare by a non-NATO member against it.

    The 2008 War with Georgia was about NATO, but Putin's Ukrainian adventure is squarely aimed at the EU. Russia does not want to get absorbed into the EU - it wants to be a first among equals - and it's own integration project is competing directly with the EU. Rather than operating under NATO's Article 5 threshold (which doesn't apply to Ukraine anyway), Putin is trying to operate under the EU's threshold.

    Unfortunately for the Kremlin, there was enough of a backbone in the West to apply sanctions. Irrespective of whether TOWs and Javelins are funnelled into Ukraine, neither side can back down. The EU and NATO could easily collapse over this issue, and Putin's Kremlin could be overthrown.

    How do you turn the screws on a nuclear power and not suffer blowback? It's a tricky situation. As for the UN, remember when the USSR and Germany were booted from the League of Nations?
    Azor--sorry for the long period of silence but am fighting a "new little green men" battle in the "last mile" if there are some out there that understand the DSL telco switching world.

    Got a reputation with resolving a core routing issue with DT now we are on to bigger and worser problems.

    BUT to answer your commnets---

    The Havel was massive and a great break--I rented two house boats for my team and their families which we could drive ourselves and conoes for all--then cruised to one of the 3000 or so lakes in Brandenburg--parked and conoed and swam for hours--all families had a great time, computers were turned off and it was simply conversations around families, kids, cats, schools and the world in general.

    Wein from Alsace flowed--they do have some unknown and vastly underrated weins not commonly seen in Germany and it came from where I have a house where you can see the weinery at work and where I have often helped harvest their grapes.

    Now for the serious side--if Obama had not ridden his "soft power" approach literally in the ground of utter failure the US had two specific economic instruments of hard power that would have signalled his serious intent to stop Putin in mid tracks BUT he has utterly refrained from using them as he somehow fears Russia will escalate.

    The same Russia that has constantly escalated ever since Crimea.

    There are two simple yet heavy nuclear equal economic weapons Obama has refused to use--that would in fact signal a clear, concise intent to stop Putin.

    1. reduce the current sanctions on Russian companies raising cash USDs from 30 days to seven days--this is the tactical nuclear strike AND

    THEN

    2. decouple Russia from SWIFT--that is the strategic nuclear strike.

    The Russian economy is seriously hurting --they had hoped to drive the Ukraine into the economic ground through their invasion and war in eastern Ukraine BUT in fact right now Russia is racing the Ukraine to the bottom and the question for me is how much longer can their economy take falling oil prices that will not recover in time to help them and an out of control Rubel coupled with war costs of an estimated 50M USDs per DAY.

    Remember it was the falling price of oil that collasped Russia the first time.

    Eurasian free-trade bloc shaken by Russia’s economic straits - Bloomberg http://en.censor.net.ua/n349057

    Ukraine suspends Russian electricity imports - read on - http://uatoday.tv http://uatoday.tv/news/ukraine-suspe...ts-481462.html

    FSB reportedly stalling a huge deal involving US oil giant Schlumberger
    (Don't ask about Russian licenses in US & UK)
    http://www.businessinsider.com/fsb-i...rs-deal-2015-8

    Russia Faces Reality With Prediction of Deeper Economic Slump http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...economic-slump
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-25-2015 at 06:39 PM.

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