Russia could not have given the West such a clear and concise concept of what it is and did undertake in Crimea and eastern Ukraine--AND yet utter silence from literally any western leader.
Just how strange is that???
Stabilization phase
In order to consolidate the results achieved by the hybrid war, the attacking country needs to take additional steps to further strengthen and legitimize its rule. This third phase can be referred to as strategic stabilization. However, in this respect the Eastern Ukraine scenario turned out to be radically different from the Crimean one.
The stabilization phase can be described in detail in three sections
as follows:
Section 7. Political stabilization of the outcome
• Organizing a ‘referendum’ and decision about secession/independence in the target
country, all with the strong diplomatic and media support of the attacking country.
• The new ‘state’ asks for help from the attacking country.
Section 8. Separation of the captured territory from the target country
• 8a: attacking country annexes the captured territory (Crimea), or
• 8b: establishes (open or covert) military presence there, and starts fighting the central
government in the name of the newly established ‘state’, thereby continuing to
weaken it in the political, economic and military sense (Eastern Ukraine). A sub-variant
is an open invasion under the pretext of ‘peacekeeping’ or ‘crisis management’.
Section 9. Lasting limitation of the strategic freedom of movement of the attacked country
• Loss of territory (economy, population, infrastructure, etc.) results in severe economic
hardship, domestic political destabilization and possibly grave humanitarian situation.
• Lacking full control over its territory, the attacked country is unable to
join any political or military alliance that requires territorial integrity.
Russia could not have given the West such a clear and concise concept of what it is and did undertake in Crimea and eastern Ukraine--AND yet utter silence from literally any western leader.
Just how strange is that???
Direct results of the Obama, Hollande and Merkel unilateral appeasement moves pushed onto the Ukraine as demanded by Putin----he wanted a "sign of good faith" and this is what he delivered on--look like "a sign of good faith"????Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Seems the Obama NSC cannot figure out what is and or is not a strategic location in the Ukraine for the UAF----
Ukraine has lost 7 soldiers killed, 13 wounded, after rebels shell positions at #Mariupol. Recent lull in attacks was only for Berlin meet.
Seems to be some confusion on the part of the Ukrainians as to whether they had loses and or no loses----or maybe they do not want to rock the boat right now---???
ATO Speaker Seleznyov: data on large losses of Ukrainian Army in region of Mariupol have no basis. https://twitter.com/v_selezniov/stat...01490062413824 …
Will wait to see if the Donbas volunteer BN comes in with a statement as they have usually been accurate with loses if any occurred in that area.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 02:26 PM.
National Defence Academy of Latvia
Center for Security and Strategic Research
RUSSIA’S NEW GENERATION WARFARE IN UKRAINE:
IMPLICATIONS FOR LATVIAN DEFENSE POLICY
Policy Paper
02 April 2014
Page Five-----
As a result, it follows that the main guidelines for developing Russian military capabilities
by 2020 are:
i. From direct destruction to direct influence;
ii. from direct annihilation of the opponent to its inner decay;
iii. from a war with weapons and technology to a culture war;
iv. from a war with conventional forces to specially prepared forces and commercial irregular
groupings;
v. from the traditional (3D) battleground to information/psychological warfare and war of
perceptions;
vi. from direct clash to contactless war;
vii. from a superficial and compartmented war to a total war, including the enemy’s internal
side and base;
viii. from war in the physical environment to a war in the human consciousness and in cyberspace;
ix. from symmetric to asymmetric warfare by a combination of political, economic, information,
technological, and ecological campaigns;
x. From war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in
national life.
Thus, the Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battlespace is the mind and, as a result, new-generation wars are to be dominated by information and psychological warfare, in order to achieve superiority in troops and weapons control, morally and psychologically depressing the enemy’s armed forces personnel and civil population.
The main objective is to reduce the necessity for deploying hard military power to the minimum necessary, making the opponent’s military and civil population support the attacker to the detriment of their own government and country.
It is interesting to note the notion of permanent war, since it denotes a permanent enemy. In the current geopolitical structure, the clear enemy is Western civilization, its values, culture, political system, and ideology.
I have been commenting here a large number of times that Putin is chasing three core Russian geo political goals;
1. discrediting and damaging NATO
2. discrediting and damaging the EU
3. totally disconnecting the US from Europe
ALL the while attacking the Russian so called “ US neo liberalism” that it blames for the current state of unrest in the entire world.
Core question now is --just how much of the Obama and his NSC unilateral appeasement moves in the Ukraine are actually contributing to Putin achieving his three geo political goals--all in the name of his "legacy"?????
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 01:38 PM.
Zakharova: opening of NATO base in Georgia is continuation of provocative policy http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/27-augu...ase-in-georgia … pic.twitter.com/n91cObNkA4
MAP analysis---
At least 5 Ukrainian soldiers were injured in #Prokhorivka last night.
As you can see,there was no "Ukr provocation". pic.twitter.com/kI5rtKtjzW
Aug.27 UA officials: Russia has increased UAV reconnaissance in eastern Ukraine and fighter flights along the border https://twitter.com/ostro_v/status/636876311156379648 …
And Russia just keeps on sending “humanitarian aid convoys” that are usually filled with munitions and fuel—very little food makes it to the civilians—and after each aid delivery the shellings and ground attacks pick up and there is no connection?????/
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Zakharova: We continue to provide humanitarian aid to Donbass. Today, @MchsRussia has delivered another batch with the 37th convoy
Russia Fails To Observe Minsk Agreements – European Commission President
http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/321...president.html … pic.twitter.com/AKBTyQzb73
Now Russia-led terrorists in eastern #Ukraine keep 86 #Ukrainian servicemen, as POWs, and many volunteers as hostages - dep. mil. min. Budik
Russian fighter jets scurrying along Ukrainian border - Military Headquarters
http://ln.is/www.ukrinform.ua/eng/7KuCe …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 02:05 PM.
Taken from the newly released Russian Security Doctrine from 2014 which was a revised version of their 2010 Security Doctrine.
The only new element is a warning to countries bordering Russia on the inadmissibility of any policy threatening its interests. This section deserves attention for several reasons. First, the threat to the political regime has been raised to the rank of a military threat to the state. This kind of reflection is consistent with the traditional approach, in which political security is considered as the security of the institution of the state. Secondly, this section establishes the principle of the limited sovereignty of the allies and immediate neighbours of Russia: they are required to comply strictly with the interests of Russia. Thirdly, Russia’s sphere of influence has thus been expanded: in previous editions it was defined as the area of the CIS, but in the present edition it now constitutes the area of the former Soviet Union and part of the former Eastern bloc countries. Fourthly and finally, this is the wordingused by Russian commentators referring to the situation in Ukraine, which has allegedly been forcibly colonised by the West.
With the formal Russian invasion into eastern Ukraine in August 2014 to rescue their failing mercenary movement until August 2015 the Russian hybrid warfare or non linear warfare has effectively been defeated if one takes the eight phases they themselves have stated is the basis of their UW strategy.
First failure---after annexing Crimea there was a long delay in the Russian military and Putin’s processing of what to do next---Girkin a so called former and really still active FSB/GRU officer and a wanted war criminal from Kosovo took 13 other potentially GRU members and instituted their takeover of cities and towns in the Donbas (New Russia) eastern Ukraine following the Russian non linear warfare doctrine.
Girkin has in a number of interviews actually criticized Putin for having been to slow in making his decisions on when to enter the Ukraine.
If one looks at the numerous interviews and a number of comments coming out of Moscow the Girkin takeovers failed in cities that they had assumed would go proRussian----Karkiv, Mariupol, and Odessa which would have given the mercenaries a viable nation state capable of economically supporting itself and it would have fulfilled for Putin the ability to leverage their hold over the Ukraine by cutting them off of the coast line and the ports of Mariupol and Odessa thus making the Ukraine a landlocked nation totally dependent on Russia.
This first failure was due to the lack of understanding that the ethnic Ukrainians in these towns while speaking Russian still identified themselves as Ukrainian not Russian AND the various volunteer BNs that were stood up during the Maidan moved quickly to quell the various Russian attempted takeovers—even if rag tag they were able on sheer determination to end the mercenary actions which were successful.
Failure two---the Russian military anticipated that after the weak response by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea they would see the same responses in eastern Ukraine—WHAT they did not anticipate were the volunteer BNs joining forces with the UAF and yes they were a rag tag heap of a military, but they were still able to effectively defeat the mercenaries in fight after fight to the point of a total defeat thus forcing Putin to move militarily into eastern Ukraine.
Something I believe he never did envision in the early stages of Russian non linear warfare as that had not happened in Crimea. THERE is something in the Russian military doctrine that is actually causing a major problem for Putin and his non linear warfare model---the belief in a total defeat of the opposing forces---Putin and his military have been attempting to cause a massive military defeat of the UAF thus forcing the Ukrainian government to negotiate on Russian terms. In the Russian invasion of August 2014 they surrounded a rag tag force of 1K to 1.5K and soundly defeated them—but overall a large group was able to slip away to fight another day.
This defeat forced the UAF to address their shortcomings and rebuild a professional military in a hurry while the fighting was and is still ongoing. In August 2014, there were only 6K personnel available to fight in august 2014 ---now that number is close to 64K along the front lines.
We see the improvement in the UAF in the fighting at Debaltseve a clear and concise violation by Russia of the Minsk 2 agreement. Again surrounded the UAF this time did not listen to their higher command and on their own the ground commanders organized a fighting withdrawal and were able to effectively withdraw 2.5K troops that were surrounded with minimum loses and they brought out all their heavy equipment. Even Putin who voiced in a public interview in Budapest boasted of their defeat and the next day the UAF announced they had successfully withdrawn all fighting units.
Since Debaltseve the tenacity and resilience of the UAF has even surprised the Russian Mod ie sustaining over 150 to 200 tons of munitions being fired at them with only on one recent day having just two WIAs. The UAF has beaten back a number of strong ground attacks and has been as well beating back countless Spetsnaz led ground attacks. The UAF has effectively bottled up Russian forces and her mercenaries forcing Putin to either go for a major ground offensive which would trigger harsher sanctions and or lose face and pull back.
Failure three—Russian doctrine clearly sees/states--- the use of economics as a weapons system in non linear warfare and has been hoping through constant fighting to drive the Ukraine into economic collapse as their economy was in bad shape before the August 2014 invasion. While struggling the Ukraine has though passed a number of major economic reforms, received a 27B USD commitment from the IMF and millions/billions in other forms of aid from the EU, the Baltics, Japan, US and Canada and are in the verge of negotiating a debt buy down combined with the current free trade and no import tax regime of the EU. The Ukrainian economy while still struggling has improved vastly in the last six months and is projected to rebound in late 2016 with a moderate growth goal.
Russia on the other hand because of poor economic governance, oligarch controlled enterprises, poor political leadership coupled with the Crimea and eastern Ukraine sanctions, falling oil prices and a Ruble crash is in dire straits while not admitting they are in dire straits. AND having to service the war costs in eastern Ukraine of an estimated 50M USDs per day Russia has a far more serious economic struggle than does the Ukraine.
Failure four----the use of information warfare, fake information, disinformation, outright propaganda and a constant barrage of outright lies is slowly losing it’s effectiveness as social media and a number of Ukrainian and EU organizations are calling out this propaganda faster than the Russians can create new myths.
The use of massive troll nets while new, intensive and very large --- as a major issue--it is also diminishing. While initially effective in shaping the Russian myths of why they annexed Crimea and why they are protecting so called ethnic Russian speakers the effects of these myths are slowly receding in the West—a vast amount of the Russian informational war is being directed towards their own civil society in order to avoid what they view as their worst nightmare---a Moscow Maidan.
We see this diminishing effect in the way they have handled the propaganda pushback with the shot down of MH17. We have now at least six different shot down versions with Russia claiming they are all true while social media has torn them apart as blatant lies.
This does not mean informational warfare should now be ignored—no rather it must be viewed as a critical piece of the Russian non linear warfare and must be fully understood and countered as Russia now views war to be a daily event even in peacetime thus driving their informational warfare in ways to effect the success of this unspoken war by shaping the opinions of entire civil societies and their economic and political leadership.
Failure five---the unintended 3rd order of effects of non linear warfare is time---something that the Russian military and Putin has totally until the last month or so overlooked. Non linear warfare as being practiced by Russia in the eastern Ukraine was designed to be fast paced with results being in the form of a functioning mercenary government and the ability to force the Ukraine to cave to Russian demands in a continuous ongoing and speedy fashion.
We are now a full year into the non linear warfare and actually since August 2014 and outside of the still ongoing informational warfare and cyber warfare non linear warfare elements we are seeing a clear and concise interstate war ongoing. Russia has been forced into a tank on tank approach which is time consuming and costly and their “New Russia” project has since February 2015 not really gone anywhere and time is running out as there has been no additional territory gained since Minsk 2 the demarcation line.
Failure six---if we look at the diplomatic efforts on the part of Russia as being one element in their non linear warfare which it has been so defined then since Minsk 2 they are failing on all fronts. Even the attempts by Putin to “demand” that Obama, Hollande and Merkel apply direct pressure on the Ukraine and to force the Ukraine to do unilateral appeasement moves as defined by Russia which has occurred has led to nothing in the end.
In the end we have to start actually looking at what has and has not worked in the new Russian UW strategy called new generational warfare/non linear warfare and called by the West hybrid warfare.
The failures are starting to out weight the victories.
The Russian eight phases of their new UW strategic strategy called "new generational warfare or non linear warfare" which we call hybrid warfare.
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological,ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).
This phase already kicked in –in 2012 with the beginnings of the Ukrainian internal discussions and civil society discussions on joining the EU. Remember in 2008/2009 Putin stated he had no problems with the Ukraine joining the EU. It went into overdrive with the advent of the Maidan and really overdrive when the former corrupt Ukrainian President was basically thrown out of office. Remember even his own political party—Party of Regions voted overwhelmingly to strip him of his position.
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
After the Crimea and Maidan social media began an extensive search of social media sources epseically the Russian FaceBook VK and have identified a number of Russian Spetsnaz who had been in the area of the Maidan and definitely in the Ukraine BEFORE Crimea.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.
This phase was initiated with the Russian military annexation of Crimea and with the arrival of FSB/GRU officer Girkin and this team from Crimea and their take over of numerous Donbas towns and cities especially Donetsk. They failed to takeover Kharkiv. Mariupol and Odessa –a significant failure tactically speaking.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Russian information warfare against the Ukraine began actually in a serious fashion in 2012 and still continues.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.
A Russian military de facto no fly zone was established with their invasion of August 2014 when they sent in numerous AD weapons systems and with the continuous shot down of Ukrainian military aircraft culminating the in the shot down of the civilian airliner MH17.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
This phase began in the Ukraine in August 2014 with social media open source analysis indicating that Russian Spetsnaz had been in the Ukraine in 2013. Russian GRU/FSB officers in my opinion have been coming and going from the Ukraine long before 2012 as a part and parcel of the then Ukrainian State Security known as the SBU.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of high precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons based on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
This phase has been ongoing in eastern Ukraine since the Russian military invasion of August 2014 with now over 400 tanks, thousands of APCs and hundreds of artillery and MRLSs sent by Russia to the Ukraine not to mention 9K plus Russian troops and over 2K Russian mercenary advisors and 55K Russian troops on a high state of alert parked directly on the Ukrainian borders.
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker's missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender's resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop
operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by ground troops.
Russian troops and her mercenaries have been attempting this since the Russian invasion of August 2014, the Debaltseve pocket and all along the demarcation line drawn in Minsk 2 in February 2015. What has been missing is the use of airdropped troops—Russian airborne troops have though be coupled with armored units as a spearhead type of force—ie their invasion of August 2014 when 50 got killed and 10 were captured after a heavy arty strike and subsequent ground attack on them by the UAF.
There has been virtually no further territorial gains made by Russian troops and her mercenaries since February 2015.
In the last four weeks Russian troops and her mercenaries have been conducting a rather slow stepped ground offensive coupled with intensive artillery and rocket shellings gaining basically nothing.
Slow stepped meaning keeping the fighting just a slight tad under the radar so as to not draw attention to it by mainstream media and Western leaders ie Obama, Hollande and Merkel WHO all seem to think “the ceasefire is largely holding” which flies in the face of over 100 attacks a day and when the Russian mercenaries themselves claim 30 attacks a day are in fact a “ceasefire”.
So again all phases of the Russian “new generational warfare” have been engaged by Russia but nothing as been politically, economically or militarily achieved outside of what is anchored in the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements—with the Ukraine closer and closer to NATO and the EU which Putin claimed he wanted to hinder.
Thus the statement---the so called Russian “new generational warfare” being practiced currently by Russia in the eastern Ukraine has all but failed as a doctrine as it has not achieve the results it was designed for.
Instead of creating a “frozen” situation impacting the Ukraine in fact Russia has been “frozen” in place and the costs are getting severe militarily, politically and economically.
Appears as if the Ukraine is getting bolder since they restructured their debt and declared--Russia take our offer and or not--but on our terms not yours.
THEN this---
No Minsk-3: #minskagreements not to be reconsidered - #Poroshenko http://belsat.eu/en/articles/there-w...-3-poroshenko/ …
They are sensing a shift in the fighting towards them not the Russian troops and her mercenaries-----
In Russia destroyed 1.5 tons of food for German BMW team members (Moscow stage of racing series DTM) Idiots)) pic.twitter.com/XUgBBcRj6L
Russia is in serious problems with their demands on the repayment of their 3B USD loan to the Ukraine—the Ukraine using Russians tactics called and odious debt can in fact negate the laon by stating that it was paid as a bribe to the former Ukrainian President for him to say no to the Eu Association Agreement and 1.3B of the loan went straight into his pockets which the Ukraine Finance Ministry can in fact prove.
Russian Finance Minister Says Will Demand Full Debt Repayment From Ukraine
- State TV http://tmt-go.ru/528854
IMF has stated if the Ukrainians declare the debt as correct then the IMf will assist the Ukraine in paying that debt.
Russian fighting over repayment for the French none delivered Mistral ships and now this 3B loan indicates just how serious the Russian financial problem really are.
Russian demanded 1.4B from the French and yet settled for 972M USDs.
Right now they are seemingly willing to take just about any amount of money.
Humor----
Putin's approval rating dropped from 89% to 83%, FSB suspects Levada-Center has been infiltrated by the CIA pic.twitter.com/79Zl4Jp7ow
From Radio Free Europe--notice they state the cached Russian article indicates more than 2K were killed.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../27210762.html
By Mike Eckel
August 26, 2015
30,000-50,000 Russians have participated in the war in Ukraine – former militant leaderA Russian-language website has caused a stir with a report asserting that more than 2,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Delovaya Zhizn, which translates as Business Life, published the information online in March, as part of a larger story of how the Russian federal budget was compensating relatives of servicemen killed in the line of duty.
The report went unnoticed until Ukrainian websites and Forbes magazine's online edition drew attention to it this week. Two former U.S. ambassadors to Russia and Ukraine -- Michael McFaul and Steven Pifer, respectively -- tweeted out mention of the report.
The issue of Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine is critical for the Kremlin, which has routinely denied that its military forces are involved in the conflict between Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed separatists, despite mounting evidence to the contrary. In some cases, the Kremlin has said that any Russians fighting in Ukraine are merely volunteers.
In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree classifying Russian military casualties in peacetime "special operations" as a state secret, and prohibiting their publication.
Research released earlier that month by Russia's political opposition tallied at least 220 Russian soldiers who had died in Ukraine. The United Nations has placed the death toll in the conflict that began in April 2014 at more than 6,400, including civilians and combatants, and said it may be much higher.
As of August 26, most of the original story was still posted on the Delovaya Zhizn site, though the material specifically related to Russian casualties had been removed. Cached versions, however, showed the article reporting that as of February 1, more than 2,000 families had received compensation for relatives killed in Ukraine. Another 3,200 soldiers wounded in battle had also received compensation, it said.
RFE/RL could not independently confirm the figures. A person who responded to messages sent to Delovaya Zhizn's e-mail address identified himself as Anatoly Kravchenko, and said that the website had received the casualty figures from relatives of dead servicemen as well as "insider information" from the Russian Defense Ministry, but declined to identify any specific sources.
The person also said the site had removed the information about casualties from the article after receiving a warning from Russia's media regulator, Roskomnadzor, saying that the site was in breach of Russian law and threatening consequences if the article was not removed or revised.
A phone call to Roskomnadzor's office in Moscow was not immediately returned.
In the period leading up to Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014, masked, camouflaged soldiers appeared abruptly around the Black Sea peninsula. The soldiers wore no insignias and the Kremlin repeatedly denied they were Russian servicemen.
Later on, however, Putin acknowledged that the soldiers were Russian and a holiday was established to honor them.
In an effort to discredit Russian claims, Ukraine has frequently distributed photos and videos of captured soldiers who identify themselves as active-duty Russian servicemen.
In a video released earlier this month by Ukraine's main security agency, a man captured by Ukrainian forces near the city of Donetsk said he had served 19 years in the Russian Army and appealed directly to Putin to secure his release.
This is why I say a steady state of 9K----Aleksandr Borodai the former Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic said Thursday (August 27) that "between 30,000 and 50,000 Russian volunteers" fought in eastern Ukraine over the last year, Russian news site gazeta.ru reports.
To unite the ‘volunteers' Borodai, who is currently living in Moscow, said he would create a so-called Union of Donbass Volunteers in Russia. According to Boradai, the organization won't have a political agenda and will rely on private donors.
Watch also Number of Russian troops killed and injured in Ukraine is no longer a secret
However, Borodai stressed that the members of the future union will be ready for mobilization, if needed.
The new Union of Donbass Volunteers will be for "all of those who took part in defending Donbas in one way or another. Everyone who was there," Borodai said.
According to the official Kremlin's line Russian citizens fighting in eastern Ukraine are all either volunteers or troops on leave from their jobs.
Reporting by Agence France-Presse, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
BTW--the these figures are a tad high---to impress propaganda wise--if one takes the steady state of 9K rotating every three months then in fact 36K have served--he appears to be claiming "actual Russian troops as "volunteers" notice--not actual active duty troops which the 36K were in fact.
Turchynov: reserve of 9K Rus troops from 21th tactical group are in occupied #Donbas. 50,5K are close to Ukr border http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/news/2244.html
Turchynov: there r 35K troops in occupied #Donbas, 40% are local militants + Rus mercenaries, rest regular Rus troops
http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/news/2244.html
The figure of 40% of 35K is a steady state and has not changed much in the last six months--this means the mercenary count is not increasing nor are the numbers of local Donbas fighters increasing.
NOTE: what is even more interesting is that the leader of Chechnya claimed two months ago to have completely pulled out his so called
"Chechen volunteers"---if that had happened the estimate of 35K would have dropped by about 7K--which it did not so they were evidently not in fact pulled out.
AND he has not repeated that claim since then-----
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 05:41 PM.
Why would the Russian troops and her mercenaries being calling for a total ceasefire on 1 Sept especially when you have been trumpeting you are winning????
Actually for a number of reasons and they are not good for Russia.
1. there was in fact for the last five weeks a slow stepped Russian general offensive so as to not awake the West to the actual fact hidden under the guise of constant ground attacks and shellings which subsided the moment the western main stream media starting picking up on it.
2. that general offensive has largely failed and ft Russia wants to gain more Ukrainian Donbas territory then they must institute a force scale invasion using actual Russian troops and the release time for Russian conscripts and some of her "contractors" is getting close and their own loses are a tad on the high side and would be worse if they went into actual full scale combat operations thus awakening the Russian home land.
3. the Russian use of their economic weapons in their non linear warfare model are not working as the Ukraine restructured their debt and have cut back drastically their energy dependence on Russia and even cut Russia purchases of cross border Russian electricity---removal of three Russian economic weapons and limiting Russian cash earnings
4. the political clout after this latest Normandy Four meeting was practically zero after Putin demanded his "sign of good faith" which the West then pressured the Ukraine to fulfill and then Russia attacked the so called DMZ repeatedly--the same DMZ they claimed they wanted "a sign of good faith" on.
5. the Ruble is still basically in free fall, oil is in free fall and Putin and his inner circle remember only too well the last time that occurred the Soviet Union collapsed.
6. the EU sanctions renewal is coming up in December
Basically if in fact the Russian troops and her mercenaries ACTUALLY do stop firing totally as demanded by the Ukraine---Russian non linear warfare has basically failed.
IMHO opinion--they will keep on shelling and attacking---their track record is nothing short of zero--they did not pull back their heavy weapons under Minsk 2, they did not fully and completely exchange POWs as required under Minsk 2, they did not even attempt outside of a Russian PR show for internal consumption attempt to pull back weapons of 100mms---THEIR own proposal and they did not adhere to the DMZ--THEIR very own JCCC/Putin proposal in Mariupol.
AND the list goes on--so why now and if they hold to it then WHY????
Ukraine, separatists to strive for full ceasefire from September 1 http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-separa...193241107.html …
.@Poroshenko in #Brussels calls for immediate ceasefire, not from Sep 1 "No fire is a direct obligation of Russia [under Minsk-2 accord]"
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 05:24 PM.
Today (00:00-18:00) militants 54 times violated the ceasefire. Most tense situation was in the Mariupol area - ATO
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...34&__tn__=%2As …
Russia will not have the financial capability to abolish conscription until at least the 2020s https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...tion-conundrum …
2 Civilians in ATO zone killed by landmines. https://twitter.com/Natalia02077/sta...42578533933056 …
What is with the continued Russian theft of Ukrainian assets—are they that poor???? Must be…….
Russians robbing the Crimea airdrome Bagerovo, quite like trainloads of Ukraine soil were routed to Germany in WW2. https://twitter.com/KrimRt/status/636788050593509376 …
If this is in fact true THEN why the sudden desire for a complete ceasefire????
NSDC Head Turchynov: Rus military command organized the 2 army corps in occupied E Ukr similar to Waffen SS model http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/news/2244.html
Turchynov: troops inside Ukr are org-ed in 2 army corps, their command HQ is located in Novocherkask, Rostov reg Rus http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/news/2244.html
Turchynov: reserve of 9K Rus troops from 21th tactical group are in occupied #Donbas. 50,5K are close to Ukr border http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/news/2244.html
.@NSDC_ua Head Turchynov: #Russia changes modus operandi in E #Ukraine from combined Rus-militant forces to well-structured regular troops
Again if you are supposedly winning why the sudden offer to conduct a full ceasefire???
IF this is in fact correct then the much vaulted Russian non linear warfare has in fact actually failed.
.@NSDC_ua Head Turchynov: #Russia changes modus operandi in E #Ukraine from combined Rus-militant forces to well-structured regular troops
IMO this is a clear indicator that the Russian non linear warfare has fully shifted to a true interstate war--war with a big W with regular troops fighting regular troops- tank on tank- artillery on artillery heck even Spetsnaz is in a purely infantry mode right now from all front reporting.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 05:47 PM.
Has Putin been forced to abandon non linear warfare???The Russian eight phases of their new UW strategic strategy called "new generational warfare or non linear warfare" which we call hybrid warfare.
http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/2244.html
27.08.2015
Turchynov: On Ukraine's eastern border another 53 tactical groups of Russian Army (39 battalion, 14 company groups) numbering 50,500 troops.Oleksandr Turchynov: In Donbas we confront the military units of the regular army of the Russian Federation, formed by the model of “Waffen-SS”
During the summer of 2015 there were radical changes in the character of Russian engagement in military actions in the East of Ukraine. Now Armed Forces of Ukraine are confronted not by mixed Russian-terrorist groupings, as it was from the beginning of the occupation, but by structured military units of Russian regular army.
At the occupied territory of Donbas the military leadership of Russia has completed the creation of a powerful ground formation, based on two army corps, ready to conduct active offensive operations. Control and supplying of 1st and 2nd army corps are performed by the specially created 12th command of reserve of Southern District of Russia's Armed Forces (headquarters located in town Novocherkassk, Rostov region of Russia). Key command and staff positions in these army corps are occupied by Russian permanent officers. Enlisted personnel of these corps consists up to 40% of residents of the occupied territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as contract soldiers and mercenaries from Russia, who have gained combat experience during the hostilities in the East of Ukraine and in flash points of Russia. The authorized strength of these two army corps is up to 35 thousand men. In addition, at the occupied territory there is a military reserve consisting of 21 tactical groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (15 battalion, 6 company groups), numbering more than 9 thousand people. On the eastern border of our country another 53 tactical groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are concentrated (39 battalion, 14 company groups) numbering 50,5 thousand people.
The features of forming and functioning of the 1st and 2nd army corps indicate that the Russians for their creation have chosen the model, approbated by the leadership of Germany during World War II and known as the "Waffen SS".
"Waffen SS" is the military units of "SS" which participated in the combat actions at the front during the World War II. Due to the limitation of their own mobilization resource the leadership of Germany has decided to enlist volunteers, who were citizens of occupied countries. In accordance with the official policy of that time exclusively German nationals could serve in the Wehrmacht (German Armed Forces).
There were no such restrictions for the "SS", so as a part of it special "Waffen-divisions" were created, which consisted of foreign volunteers and were formed usually on ethnic or religious grounds. German permanent officers of "SS" served as commanders of these "Waffen-divisions" and volunteers from occupied countries were taken to serve as cannon fodder on positions of privates or other lowest military posts. Exactly this experience of forming military units for conducting hostilities in the East of Ukraine was added by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia to its armory. We obtain fundamental data on generals and officers of the Russian army, who are included to the commanding level of Russia's occupation forces. Materials concerning them are being transferred to the Office of Prosecutor General of Ukraine for launching criminal investigations. The command of all the grouping of Russian occupation forces is being carried out by Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, Chief of Staff - First Deputy to Commander of the Southern Military District (cover identification document on a surname Sedov).
In particular, the command of the 1st army corps before the beginning of August 2015 was carried out by Major-General of the Russian Army Alexey Zavizyon, seconded from the post of Chief of Staff of the 41st Army of Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, who have used cover identification document on a surname Pilevin. The commander of the 2nd army corps is Major-General of Russian Army Evgeniy Nikiforov (cover identification document on a surname Morgun), seconded from the post of Deputy to Commander of 58th Army of Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. A rotation was held here. Down to recent times this army corps was under command of Lieutenant-General Sergey Yudin, who headed the Staff of the 20th Army of Western Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. I would like to stress once again that we are confronted by fully functional military units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
At the occupied territories a large number of heavy armament and military equipment is concentrated, a staggered accumulation of large amounts of fuel and ammunition is being carried out, which are to ensure the conduct of active offensive operations and, according to the plan of Russian General Staff, will be supported by the intrusion of additional units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the territory of Ukraine.
Turchynov: In addition to 2 army corps, a 9,000-men reserve of 21 tactical groups of Russian Armed Forces (15 battalion, 6 company groups)
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 06:11 PM.
Who would have guessed Russia owes Ukraine $17B from USSR disintegration https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/636857068079697920 …
Aug27 #Oleksandrivka @hyeva_maryinka prisoner exchange https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31A0...ature=youtu.be …
Shellings are on again------
Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
19:00 2 min lull and booms resumed
19:25 All the time short combats and quiet then
20:48 #Stanytsia_Luhanska @100007182042214 Restless.
20:32 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca afternoon #OSCE came and it's more or less quiet since then
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 06:10 PM.
Russia(n) tanks, Grad rocket systems & self-propelled guns near #Horlivka/#Gorlovka http://en.censor.net.ua/photo_news/3...orlivka_photos …pic.twitter.com/ToQjFxikkR
Video shows a shell exploding near Ukrainian soldier in east #Ukraine http://uatoday.tv/politics/youtube-c...al-482809.html … pic.twitter.com/VfR33XO0AD
Video shows #Ukraine army checkpoint under #Russia|n tank fire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc_XKyNzk1M …
Russian armor crossing into Ukraine via Krasnodon non-stop. This time tanks. https://twitter.com/elonline40/statu...49063295152128 …
Ukrainian investigator: We know the names of 6 suspects for shooting down MH17, 3 Ukrainians, 3 Russians
http://bit.ly/1hi0XAt
Russian Merc Vyacheslav Isayev-#Russia supplies weapons & equipment to #Donbas rebels http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/08/27/all...el_says_619446 … pic.twitter.com/FeXjxIQyzJ
Poroshenko: I don't understand why we have to wait a whole week to a ceasefire http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/27-augu...e-have-to-wait …
Outgoing full load of GRADs from
From the Mariupol DMZ area of the so called Russian US implemented “sign of good faith” which is still getting UAF killed and wounded—so much for the US trusting Putin.
Obama’s inspiring words—“we will judge Putin on his actions—not his words”
According to Butusov, 8 Ukrainian soldiers (2 - 36th Brigade, 6 - 72nd Brigade) were killed in sector M yesterday
https://m.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy...message_bubble …
Donetsk, outgoing arty from mine #21 slugheap pic.twitter.com/YqyojeEkwW
Something heavy is shooting from approx. Donetsk, Kievski ave, 87 https://twitter.com/hauzenmynh/statu...78109967810562 …
21:40 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka They awoke, boom, booms sound dully
21:46 #Donetsk @AkaDON12 , flashes behind the airport and westward, soft ones
21:46 #Donetsk @AkaDON12 Finally [RUS] delivered 750 tons of textbooks to DNR - volleys on Putilovka, mortars first, now sounds heavier
22:00 #Donetsk @UkraineSuper1 "Landings somewhere in Putilovka, RUS textbooks exlode strongly"
22:09 #Stepne @Darren_Aro Volleys are heard from far away from #Olenivka-#Dokuchaevsk side. They don't go towards Stepne
22:48 #Donetsk @14720Maro [fb] Hardware towards Tekstilschik
The entire front line is active tonight—so much for the so called separatists 1 Sept ceasefire
22:47 #Donetsk @relictDon Approaching hardware roar is heard in #Rutchenkove machinery plant area
talked to a few low ranked DNRs... they're all angry and ready to attack... would be very stupid of them...
22:40 #Donetsk @devi1810 Sudden MLRS from Kalinovsky ds
22:39 #Donetsk @ADivinorum MLRS from the east, full load
22:37 #Stanytsia_Luhanska @100007182042214 Power line was damaged by shelling, area left without electricity. Deflagrations again
22:30 Due to shelling power lines damaged near #Stanitsya_Luhanska. Now under fire again. https://twitter.com/100007182042214/...85872005599232 …
Donetsk, Grad outgoing
22:15 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Boarding school and Novomaryinka directions have been loud
22:30 ceased
Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
21:55 2 more booms after lull
22:00 Strong boom and silence
23:05 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] machine guns are now heard, smoothly in the town
23:05 #Dokuchaevsk @goky4_ykpauHa "Ruscists started their evening rite" [=shelling started]
23:19 #Avdiivka @JuZolyshkaLia Wow, landings, some strong ones
23:20 #Stakhanov @DNSRRSTRTS It began. RUS artillery works
Peski taking heavy fire.... https://twitter.com/_John__Carter_/s...93630641762304 …
23:28 #Donetsk @Buzzing_Rook And here come incoming ones, cannot get where
23:21 #Stakhanov @elonline40 Outgoing ones from the same position as yesterday [=field behind #Buhayivka just bear residential houses]
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-27-2015 at 08:37 PM.
VIDEO: Column of APCs. Feodosia/Феодосия (27.08.15)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M8lV7mckaXo … pic.twitter.com/kf2fbkhKJB
My original article on #Russia's propaganda network in #Ukraine is now reaching a much larger audience
https://twitter.com/RobPulseNews/sta...38363617742849 …
Putin"Donbosses" from armed men to Multi-Millionaires #Girkin paid 15Million Rubles https://translate.google.co.uk/trans...ml&prev=search … #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/7Rx1RELpXC
Militants continue to waste entire neighborhoods - JCCC
http://www.unian.info/war/1116149-mi...oods-jccc.html … pic.twitter.com/NJPQyKcqpM
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