Understanding Indian Insurgencies

[Kevin23]

Well, if one were to apply The Jones Insurgency Model (shameless plug acknowledged) to the Governance / Populace dynamics of India, as well as China; that in the long run the U.S. has little to worry about either of these emerging economic powerhouses achieving their full potential.

They are quite likely doomed to devolve into debilitating insurgencies as the gap widens between the haves and have nots; exacerbating the four causal factors of Poor Governance.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that both the PRC and India will succumb as governments to internal disturbances or insurgencies, because even under the Jones model both governments are attempting to at least play to the interests of all groups in their respective countries.. Despite the fact that all factors of poor governance exist in China and India. For example, India is democracy in which groups across the political, economic, and social spectrum have representation in which the interests and grievances of all groups are played to. In the case of China, the government in Beijing is also beginning to address some of the issues and problems under the Jones Model in the various provinces of China, with one instance of this being the rural-urban divide which has also translated into a economic/class divide as well.

On the last notes to this point, industrializing nations within the Western World also exhibited many of the symptoms under the Jones Model but managed to evolve into successful industrialized countries. Also in the cases of both China and India, both nations have a history of varying degrees of internal disorder, so at least in the case of India what makes such disturbances unusual?

However then again in world history, the issue of two nations with populations of a billion plus people and the conflicting interests and grievances that such a population brings.

[tequila]

An article in The Deccan Chronicle from a former IPS officer, contrasting how Andra Pradesh tackled Naxalism in the 1990s with the current special police/local militia offensive being undertaken in Chhattisgarh:

Make the war public

* A ban was imposed on the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) and its front organisations like Radical Students’ Union and Progressive Democratic Students’ Union to check activities like bandhs and to stop fresh recruitment.

* A new legislation, Public Security Act, cut off the nexus between Naxals and their sympathisers in the affected villages.

* Intensive development of interior areas, particularly of roads and communications, was undertaken.

* A solution was sought to the various issues raised by extremists through a special cell functioning in the chief minister’s office.

* Employment was promoted in a big way. There was, in fact, a special focus on employing tribals in good numbers in all government departments, particularly the police, to give them a greater sense of participation in governance.

* Procurement of forest produce was taken away from forest contractors and entrusted with government corporations, thereby cutting off the flow of funds to extremists.

* A rehabilitation policy for those extremists wanting to leave the movement was put into action.

* Perception management, or counter-propaganda, through well-trained cultural troupes was undertaken.

A major issue in India is the drive to nationalize/federalize the Naxalite insurgency by bringing in the Army. Historically, most Indian insurgencies (excepting Kashmir) were tackled and resolved by the police at the state level.

[Jedburgh]

A series of articles from IPCS in New Delhi, published 14-21 June 2010:

Countering the Naxal Threat I: An Analysis of Earlier Efforts

Countering the Naxal Threat II: A Case for Specialized Units

Countering the Naxal Threat III: Use the CRPF and Avoid the Army

Countering the Naxal Threat IV: Military as an Option?

[Kevin23]

Here is an interesting article from Foreign Policy, about how the mining situation in the Naxalite infected region is both fueling their cause and providing funding and support to their operations.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...re_in_the_hole

[davidbfpo]

In summary:

India's long-running Maoist insurgency has increased in intensity in recent months. In April, 76 government troops were killed by Naxalite guerrillas in a brutal hit-and-run ambush near Chintalnar in Dantewada district in the central state of Chhattisgarh – the largest Naxalite strike in the group's 43-year history. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has described the rebellion as 'India's gravest security threat.

An IISS Strategic Comment:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ist-challenge/

Which ends with:

In the longer term, India's growing prosperity offers a window to tackle the structural roots of the conflict – but there must be doubt about whether the government has either the will or the political capital to use this opportunity.

[blueblood]

Naxalism is the result of the failed policies of the Indian National Congress party which ruled India most of the time since independence in 1947. They introduced some laws and acts which were socialism inspired like Jamindari Act and Chakbandi Act which abolished Jamindari practice ( literal meaning land owners ). Jamindars were Upper Class Hindu and Muslim families generally related to the ruling Royal families of their respective states or are on good terms with British Raj holding most of the land in their villages. It was strictly implemented in most of the country but not in some remote tribal areas.

The result was that tribals were denied the land which constitutionally belonged to them and were oppressed by upper caste Hindus. Since, no other political party was capable of challenging Congress on national level, they ruled the way they wanted ignoring problems and further more by playing dirty vote bank politics. Communist leaders decided to oppose and they failed miserably when they contested for elections because of the lack of support from most of the tribals except in West Bengal which was a strong hold of Communism.

A movement which was started to provide justice to tribals lost it's genuineness as soon as CPI(Maoist) lost the elections fair and square and took the arms to "liberate" the tribals. So, even today you will find Naxalite propaganda machine telling the tribals all sorts of lies like Government is building roads so that can reach you to kill you, illegal mining and abducting teachers and other civil servants just to keep tribals the way they are i.e innocent and uneducated and if not then a bullet in the head.

They are losing this war and their popularity among the tribals since the government has started programs to get rid of headache and proper development of these areas is on it's way.

There is another misconception that a large number of districts in India is affected by Naxalism. A Naxalite arms factory was discovered at the heart of the city Bhopal barely 500 m from my home but it doesn't mean that the city is Naxalite infected as we never had any casualty in the last 40 years. Technically it is but practically not.

You can compare it with the Times Square incident, yes someone tried to detonate a bomb but it doesn't mean that NY is terrorism infected.