Understanding Indian Insurgencies

[Ray]

It is being treated as a State issue since law and order is under the jurisdiction of the State.

If it were to be taken as terrorism, then it would be an Union Govt responsibility.

[davidbfpo]

Elsewhere on SWJ mention has been made pf the apparent absence of an internal jihadist activity when compared to the size of India's Muslim minority, so Stephen Tankel's latest offering 'Jihadist Violence: The Indian Threat' may help understanding. I have not read the paper yet; the summary says:

India faces many well-known challenges, from corruption to environmental degradation. A lesser-noted challenge is domestic militancy. This new study, produced by noted South Asia security expert Stephen Tankel, focuses on the Indian Mujahideen (IM)--a loosely organized indigneous Islamist militant network. IM, Prof. Tankel argues, is "an internal security issue with an external dimension." Its leadership is currently based in Pakistan, but the organization represents a response to Indian domestic failings.

Link:http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publicat...-indian-threat

[davidbfpo]

A "lurker" has responded and pointed to a 2009 academic conference paper by a retired Indian police / intelligence official. The paper takes a broad approach and contains some "gems" on Indian terrorism - especially on how officialdom has responded:

Since the outbreak of modern day terrorism in India in the early 1980s, our counter-terrorist policy has been stymied by a constant refrain from experts and government agencies that all terrorism in India including Sikh militancy were only the result of religious or ideological subversion from abroad, especially Pakistan. This was based on an illusory political hypothesis that Indian citizens by themselves were unsympathetic to militancy in their country and needed to be prodded from outside. At various stages even North East militancy or Maoist violence was branded as inspired from abroad.

[blueblood]

For the first time since 1994, the year 2012 registered a total number of terrorism and insurgency linked fatalities across India in the three digits – at 804, as against 1,073 in 2011 and a peak of 5,839 in 2001. The trend of sustained decline in such fatalities has been near-unbroken since 2001 (with a marginal reversal in 2008), giving tremendous relief to theatres of persistent violence. The most prominent among these is Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), which has been wracked by a Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorist movement since 1988, with a resultant total of 43,439 fatalities (till March 10, 2013). J&K recorded 117 fatalities in 2012, down from 183 in 2011; and a peak of 4,507 in 2001.

http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countr...dia/index.html
..........

Seems like a massive decline in the number of fatalities but I fear these numbers may go up after US leaves Astan this year.

[davidbfpo]

Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, has a commentary in The Hindu, an Indian newspaper, on Al-Qaeda’s announcement of the creation of a South Asian wing, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS):http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-e...?homepage=true

[Ray]

One should not be too perturbed about this ISIS.

After the demise of their Prophet, Islam converted from a Spiritual Islam to a Political Islam - meaning seeking who is the real inheritor of their Prophet. It simple terms - raw Power Lust!

Till now, it was confined to two major sects. They have been at it decimating the other all over the world.

Now, it has shifted to individuals using Islam for their own self aggrandisation.

They will fight each other to the last Moslem.

[davidbfpo]

Peter Bergen:

The idea that Ayman al-Zawahiri is going to open a branch of al-Qaeda in India is just crazy. Yes, there are some jihadi elements in India, but there's no evidence that al-Qaeda has a presence in the country...It's an attempt by Zawahiri to have people like us discuss him, because he's been out of the limelight for so long, it's all been about ISIS in Iraq and Syria and al-Qaeda is very conscious that they're yesterday's story....ISIS is a much more appealing media strategy, apart from the fact that also they are being much more successful than al-Qaeda has ever been in its history in terms of getting territory, money, fighters and actually establishing a large foothold in the Middle East..

Husain Haqqani, the former Pakistan Ambassador to US:

I think that Zawahiri's attempt to talk about India is essentially to try and get the hard line elements among Pakistani jihadis and even within the Pakistani intelligence service to think about al-Qaeda as a potential ally. That's his play. I don't think he will get much traction. But basically what he's trying to do is to appeal to the anti-Indian sentiment that is present in Pakistan on any given day and hoping to get recruits for his cause

Link:http://articles.economictimes.indiat...-zawahiri-isis

[WGEwald]

One should not be too perturbed about this ISIS.

After the demise of their Prophet, Islam converted from a Spiritual Islam to a Political Islam - meaning seeking who is the real inheritor of their Prophet. It simple terms - raw Power Lust!

Till now, it was confined to two major sects. They have been at it decimating the other all over the world.

Now, it has shifted to individuals using Islam for their own self aggrandisation.

They will fight each other to the last Moslem.

Sir, perhaps this article will be of interest to you.



http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014...o-in-pakistan/

A quote

With the ISIS taking over the TTP as the chief terrorist organisation in Pakistan, obviously all Taliban apologists would henceforth be dubbed ISIS apologists. There’s one in sleeping inside a container at D-Chowk right now, who would be the first to dub ISIS freedom fighters. ISIS can then join the Azadi March, help dethrone the prime minister and take the democratic route towards the caliphate.

What would be the implications for India if ISIS were successful in that goal?

I know you call this site "Yawn", but...

http://www.dawn.com/news/1116799

Among many factors, the Pakistani state's protracted apathy and inaction on the issue of security has provided non-state actors the spaces to grow and expand their influence. They used these spaces not only to propagate their ideologies and narratives but also to establish a 'state within the state' in Pakistan's tribal areas.

Even as counteraction is now underway, the sudden rise of ISIS has threatened to make matters worse for us.