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Thread: Understanding Indian Insurgencies

  1. #41
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default I've seen the Peace Corps operating in several nations.

    In every case, the overall tone of the volunteers was effectively anti-US government to at least some extent (protective coloration in some cases) and they were far more likely to aid our nominal opponents than us...

    In fact, in two nations, they did just that and we were able to get, respectively, one person and several removed from those countries.

    Not that the Agency in many cases is much different...

  2. #42
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    Default Desperately sprayed bullets -v- precision artillery

    Quote Originally Posted by blueblood View Post
    West Bengal's top Maoist leader Koteshwar Rao alias Kishenji has been killed in a gunbattle with security forces in Burishol in Lalgarh, West Midnapore, sources in the state police have said.

    http://www.indianexpress.com/news/to...forces/880038/

    This guy has been running the show for the last three decades. COBRA guys finally nailed him.
    An update from FP Blog, with some background and details of the final mission:

    I was struck by this phrase, the English language used is, well, different:
    Kishenji found himself cornered, and started a firefight that lasted for over two hours. While the guerrilla leader and his loyalists desperately sprayed the forest with bullets, the CoBRAs retaliated with precision artillery.
    Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._luck_runs_out

    We shall have to check on Stan's location.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-01-2011 at 11:53 AM. Reason: Missed link and added
    davidbfpo

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post

    If experience in my area is anything to judge by, educating the tribal people will make resistance to externally imposed "development" more vigorous and more aggressive.

    Support for the NPA (New People's Army, local equivalent of the Naxals) has steadily degraded in my area since the government stopped pushing projects that would displace communities and effectively destroy the local way of life. Today the NPA in this area is a marginal presence and no significant threat. If people fight back when you push them around, you might try not pushing them around.
    This is where you are wrong. The current government has consistently bent over backwards for minority, tribal and lower caste votes.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reservation_in_India

    If you are a tribal, you can study in the best educational institutions for almost free (last I remember, it was nearly $50 for the tribal and lower castes for two semesters in the state eng. colleges). In urban India, things like caste do not exist and this is the thing Naxals fear the most.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    An update from FP Blog, with some background and details of the final mission:
    Please post the link. This is nearly impossible as only army has artillery and CRPF being a paramilitary/light infantry do not have access to any higher calibre weapon.

    Blueblood and maybe others,

    (Added by Moderator) My apologies for the missing link, I've added it on he initial post and here:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._luck_runs_out
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-01-2011 at 11:55 AM. Reason: Add link as requested

  5. #45
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueblood View Post
    This is where you are wrong. The current government has consistently bent over backwards for minority, tribal and lower caste votes.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reservation_in_India

    If you are a tribal, you can study in the best educational institutions for almost free (last I remember, it was nearly $50 for the tribal and lower castes for two semesters in the state eng. colleges). In urban India, things like caste do not exist and this is the thing Naxals fear the most.
    Missing the point, I think. Once tribal people are educated, to they become more receptive to externally imposed "development" - meaning dams, mines, logging, etc - or less?

    I ask because I live in one of the best educated truly "tribal" areas in the world... and people here go crazy militant at the first mention of a dam or a mine. I suspect that while education might weaken a movement like the Naxalites, it's likely to dramatically strengthen the kind of protest that Medha Patkar is known for.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Missing the point, I think. Once tribal people are educated, to they become more receptive to externally imposed "development" - meaning dams, mines, logging, etc - or less?

    I ask because I live in one of the best educated truly "tribal" areas in the world... and people here go crazy militant at the first mention of a dam or a mine. I suspect that while education might weaken a movement like the Naxalites, it's likely to dramatically strengthen the kind of protest that Medha Patkar is known for.
    Alright, no dams and no mines. What about power plants, cotton mills and steel plants? How do you plan to employ them? If your answer is a agriculture then it's a wrong one. Killing of school teachers and blowing up railways is not exactly a right path to the empowerment of tribal.

    Education and urbanization will not only weaken this movement, it will kill the ideology. As I said, no such thing as caste and creed exists in urban India. It's a bane and it exists in rural and backward parts of this nation.

    The likes of Medha Patkar are here to stay and they will stay for an unknown period. In the land of Gandhi, she is breaking no rules by protesting peacefully.

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    Just to keep the records straight, even the Indian army when combating terrorists do not use artillery, armour or air force.

    It is obvious that the paramilitary follows the same and what is more they don't have these.

    It is mere journalistic sensationalism to give the impression that they are 'in the know' and wish to show that they understand the military better than the readers.

    In fact, in the COIN areas, artillery, armour, RCL guns, MMGs, 81mm Mortars etc are all mothballed!

  8. #48
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default With my ever present METT-TC caveat...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    In fact, in the COIN areas, artillery, armour, RCL guns, MMGs, 81mm Mortars etc are all mothballed!
    That is very wise.

    Tools available will always be used where they should not be unless troops are truly superbly trained -- an expensive and thus understandably rare case in any Army.

    If some standard tools aren't available, then better thinking and tactics are necessary -- and will generally appear...

  9. #49
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueblood View Post
    Alright, no dams and no mines. What about power plants, cotton mills and steel plants? How do you plan to employ them? If your answer is a agriculture then it's a wrong one. Killing of school teachers and blowing up railways is not exactly a right path to the empowerment of tribal.
    I agree that "Killing of school teachers and blowing up railways is not exactly a right path to the empowerment of tribal". Education may not necessarily lead to docile acceptance of whatever the faraway bureaucrats decide is the right way, though... and people will fight the government if they believe, accurately or not, that government is a threat to them and their way of life.

    I don't think "you" should plan to employ "them". That sort of paternalistic thinking is rarely effective. I'd say provide education and infrastructure and let them sort it out. They might surprise you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    Just to keep the records straight, even the Indian army when combating terrorists do not use artillery, armour or air force.
    Do you think this would change if the insurgents were stronger, better organized, better armed, and in general more of a threat? Are any of the Indian insurgencies really perceived as a threat to the state, or are they more peripheral matters of a level that can be handled by police work?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post


    Do you think this would change if the insurgents were stronger, better organized, better armed, and in general more of a threat? Are any of the Indian insurgencies really perceived as a threat to the state, or are they more peripheral matters of a level that can be handled by police work?
    I don't think so.

    It has been the practice ever since the start of insurgency in India, immediately after Independence.

    Our police is inept.

    It is only the Army that is organised to take on insurgencies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I don't think "you" should plan to employ "them". That sort of paternalistic thinking is rarely effective. I'd say provide education and infrastructure and let them sort it out. They might surprise you.
    There is a saying in Urdu, "khali dimaag shaitan ka ghar" which means when a man has nothing good to do, he'll do something evil. If you don't employ them this is what you'll get. Many Kashmiris who were throwing rocks last year are now employed by both government and small private industries. Next time these guys will be more worried about completing their targets next day than throwing stones.

    Do you think this would change if the insurgents were stronger, better organized, better armed, and in general more of a threat? Are any of the Indian insurgencies really perceived as a threat to the state, or are they more peripheral matters of a level that can be handled by police work?
    I am surprised, if you don't consider LET, HUJI etc to be organised then who are? Most of the early fighters were the same that Soviets fought in Astan.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyas_Kashmiri

    Just for example.
    Last edited by blueblood; 12-03-2011 at 02:12 PM.

  12. #52
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    LeT and HUJI and the others are not only well organised, well financed and well equipped, but they are govt and Army to include ISI sponsored and trained!

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    Posted by Ken,

    That is very wise.

    Tools available will always be used where they should not be unless troops are truly superbly trained -- an expensive and thus understandably rare case in any Army.

    If some standard tools aren't available, then better thinking and tactics are necessary -- and will generally appear...
    Interesting observation, and perhaps this is one reason we fail to adapt in some cases? I don't want to imply we don't adapt, because we have and do, but we may not be adapting appropriately for IW if we continue to rely "mainly" on superior fire power (intead of strategy).

    Posted by Ray,
    LeT and HUJI and the others are not only well organised, well financed and well equipped, but they are govt and Army to include ISI sponsored and trained!
    Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I read and understand that India had up to 20 different insurgencies/separatist movements, etc., and that approximately 13 are active now, and the greatest threat to India is the Naxolite insurgency (Maoists). While the Muslim terrorist groups conduct deep attacks throughout India, the Muslim insurgency proper is largely restricted to Kashmir. What did I get wrong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post

    Ray,


    Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I read and understand that India had up to 20 different insurgencies/separatist movements, etc., and that approximately 13 are active now, and the greatest threat to India is the Naxolite insurgency (Maoists). While the Muslim terrorist groups conduct deep attacks throughout India, the Muslim insurgency proper is largely restricted to Kashmir. What did I get wrong?
    The insurgencies that keep India occupied is the Pakistan based terrorists who operate in Kashmir and the Maoists.

    The others are dormant and some exist merely on paper.

    Apart from the foreign sponsored terrorists in Kashmir, there is also the terrorist attacks in hinterland India, again organised and sponsored by Pakistan, and some of them are mounted with Indian operatives who, unfortunately are Muslims.

    It has been established that China is financing and equipping the Maoists.

    Maybe that is the reason why the Govt of India has suddenly taken a very strong line towards China and that has made China quite uncomfortable as they feel it India is being encouraged by the US.

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    posted by Ray,

    It has been established that China is financing and equipping the Maoists.
    I have always been curious about this possibility, and while the Chinese are no longer Maoists in the true sense, supporting Maoists (especially in India) would appear to be in their interests if they could do it and not get caught with their hand in the cookie jar. It has been a while, but I think I posted about it on SWJ a few years back; the Maoists in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have a regional organization and used to meet annually. Suspect it was more political in nature than a war room type meeting, yet it is still interesting to see how these interests intermingle across borders in various ways.

    If you can post some links on China's links to the Maoists it would be helpful, but understand if that isn't available.

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    Last edited by Ray; 12-03-2011 at 06:52 PM.

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    Ray,

    Time to update this article, since it talks about a former Bangladeshi government.

    http://www.eurasiareview.com/0204201...ling-analysis/

    Insurgency in many of the states of the northeastern region has finally demonstrated signs of abatement. For decades outfits thrived with their external linkages and internal support. Most of these outfits, like many insurgency movements in the world, remained personality centric. As a result, once Bangladesh started cooperating and handing over the insurgent leaders who were based in the country to India, much of the insurgencies operating in Assam and Meghalaya ran out of steam. It is Bangladesh’s cooperation, which is behind the initiation of peace talks between a faction of the ULFA and the Government of India. Bangladesh also recently handed over the Chief of United National Liberation Front (UNLF), one of the most violent groups in Manipur, to India. Prior to this, police-led operations in Tripura had neutralized the insurgency movement in Tripura. In addition, there are a host of outfits including the Naga outfits, which are under ceasefire mode and some of them are currently negotiating with the government. A conflict transformation process is underway in the volatile northeast.
    A lot more in the article...

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    Bill,

    That is correct.

    I was bringing out how the insurgency is kept alive in India.

    Rajkhowa of ULFA was handed over to India by Bangladesh and he is talking turkey.

    Yesterday's new is that Paras Baruah who is the kingpin of ULFA, which is the Assam movement, is said to have been arrested by the Myanmar junta!

    He has skipped off from Bangladesh when things got hot and pushed off to China.

    Things are changing.

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    Default perception management syndrome

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    Our police is inept.

    It is only the Army that is organised to take on insurgencies.

    Ray, are the mass graves recently unearthed in Kashmir an example of police ineptness, or is there a more pedestrian explanation? What's your take on this?

    Unmarked graves give up their shameful secrets

    Every village has stories of men and boys taken from their homes and never seen again, writes Ben Doherty in northern Kashmir.

    The police bring the bodies. In the day or night they bring them, wrapped loosely in blankets or in the clothes they wore.

    ''The bodies come in very bad condition,'' Nizar Ahmed Mir tells the Herald through an interpreter, standing on the steep slopes of the Shaheed cemetery at the end of a narrow dirt road.

    ''They are bloody, some are in handcuffs, the clothing is torn. Most have been shot in the face, or the face has been damaged, so they cannot be identified. We don't know who they are, we are just told to bury them.''
    Unmarked graves give up their shameful secret - Sydney Morning Herald - Nov 12, 2011.
    Last edited by Backwards Observer; 12-04-2011 at 10:28 AM. Reason: word removal

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    Default a vibrant democracy

    Actually, Ray, never mind. I just read the comments section of the Foreign Policy Article, What Lies Beneath: Kashmir's Mass Graves Come To Light (Sept 29, 2011). I'm going to go ahead and guess this is somewhat of an emotionally charged issue. Now, if you'll excuse me, I need a drink.

    Secondly,yes we support the government and the army in the actions taken in JK,whole heatedly.They get what they deserve.If you pretend amnesia when it comes to kashmiri pandits, then to hell with the thugs marauding as "freedom fighters".

    Thirdly,please spare the Indians this psychobabble of bad governance,atrocities and duplicity.An American calling ANYONE by these names is akin to a whore cussing the virgin mary.
    Last but not the least quit poking your nose where it doesnt belong.Get a life or whatever is left of it.
    Last time i checked you had screwed korea,vietnam,Iraq and now afghanistan and you have the audacity to lecture the Indians,specially after what you have done to the Native Americans??..huh.. [commenter at FP]

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