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Thread: Understanding Indian Insurgencies

  1. #161
    Council Member Red Rat's Avatar
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    Interesting analysis of Security Force problems in Chhattisgarh.

    Praveen Swami is probably one to track on twitter feed for those interested in the situation there.

    Chhattisgarh Attack: Why India is losing its war against the Naxals
    RR

    "War is an option of difficulties"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Rat View Post
    Interesting analysis of Security Force problems in Chhattisgarh.

    Praveen Swami is probably one to track on twitter feed for those interested in the situation there.

    Chhattisgarh Attack: Why India is losing its war against the Naxals
    With a caveat that he is a journalist and has no hands on experience, unlike many western journalists who have had military training and experience and can understand issues more incisively.

    Notwithstanding, he is more knowledgeable amongst journalists on security issues.

  3. #163
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    Default Fragmented and suffering

    At an academic seminar one speaker posed the question: Are the Naxalites or AQ a bigger threat to global security?

    The discussion that followed, without any Indians present, remarked on the spread of the Naxalites, citing quite a high % of India's land mass being affected. Then the reluctance of the central government to even talk about the problem, let alone take action.

    So the following comments by a "lurker" help to understand:
    The real reasons are the constitutional arrangement in which the Central Government. has no direct role in CT or law & order action in the twenty-eight states except when providing extra manpower at the states' request and this has resulted in a highly fragmented police & CT machinery. Secondly the inability of the State Police to meet the trans-state or trans-national terrorist challenges due to poor training and that the State politicians object to Central Government initiatives on law & order and CT action.
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    It is being treated as a State issue since law and order is under the jurisdiction of the State.

    If it were to be taken as terrorism, then it would be an Union Govt responsibility.
    Last edited by Ray; 07-29-2013 at 05:13 AM.

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    Default Left-wing Extremism: Rethinking India’s COIN Strategy

    Left-wing Extremism: Rethinking India’s COIN Strategy

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  6. #166
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    Default The jihad in India, this paper may help

    Elsewhere on SWJ mention has been made pf the apparent absence of an internal jihadist activity when compared to the size of India's Muslim minority, so Stephen Tankel's latest offering 'Jihadist Violence: The Indian Threat' may help understanding. I have not read the paper yet; the summary says:
    India faces many well-known challenges, from corruption to environmental degradation. A lesser-noted challenge is domestic militancy. This new study, produced by noted South Asia security expert Stephen Tankel, focuses on the Indian Mujahideen (IM)--a loosely organized indigneous Islamist militant network. IM, Prof. Tankel argues, is "an internal security issue with an external dimension." Its leadership is currently based in Pakistan, but the organization represents a response to Indian domestic failings.
    Link:http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publicat...-indian-threat
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    Default An Indian perspective

    A "lurker" has responded and pointed to a 2009 academic conference paper by a retired Indian police / intelligence official. The paper takes a broad approach and contains some "gems" on Indian terrorism - especially on how officialdom has responded:
    Since the outbreak of modern day terrorism in India in the early 1980s, our counter-terrorist policy has been stymied by a constant refrain from experts and government agencies that all terrorism in India including Sikh militancy were only the result of religious or ideological subversion from abroad, especially Pakistan. This was based on an illusory political hypothesis that Indian citizens by themselves were unsympathetic to militancy in their country and needed to be prodded from outside. At various stages even North East militancy or Maoist violence was branded as inspired from abroad.
    Attached Files Attached Files
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    Default India Assessment – 2013

    For the first time since 1994, the year 2012 registered a total number of terrorism and insurgency linked fatalities across India in the three digits – at 804, as against 1,073 in 2011 and a peak of 5,839 in 2001. The trend of sustained decline in such fatalities has been near-unbroken since 2001 (with a marginal reversal in 2008), giving tremendous relief to theatres of persistent violence. The most prominent among these is Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), which has been wracked by a Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorist movement since 1988, with a resultant total of 43,439 fatalities (till March 10, 2013). J&K recorded 117 fatalities in 2012, down from 183 in 2011; and a peak of 4,507 in 2001.

    http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countr...dia/index.html
    ..........

    Seems like a massive decline in the number of fatalities but I fear these numbers may go up after US leaves Astan this year.

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    Default A welcome record of failure

    Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, has a commentary in The Hindu, an Indian newspaper, on Al-Qaeda’s announcement of the creation of a South Asian wing, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS):http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-e...?homepage=true
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    One should not be too perturbed about this ISIS.

    After the demise of their Prophet, Islam converted from a Spiritual Islam to a Political Islam - meaning seeking who is the real inheritor of their Prophet. It simple terms - raw Power Lust!

    Till now, it was confined to two major sects. They have been at it decimating the other all over the world.

    Now, it has shifted to individuals using Islam for their own self aggrandisation.

    They will fight each other to the last Moslem.

  11. #171
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    Default AQ in India

    Peter Bergen:
    The idea that Ayman al-Zawahiri is going to open a branch of al-Qaeda in India is just crazy. Yes, there are some jihadi elements in India, but there's no evidence that al-Qaeda has a presence in the country...It's an attempt by Zawahiri to have people like us discuss him, because he's been out of the limelight for so long, it's all been about ISIS in Iraq and Syria and al-Qaeda is very conscious that they're yesterday's story....ISIS is a much more appealing media strategy, apart from the fact that also they are being much more successful than al-Qaeda has ever been in its history in terms of getting territory, money, fighters and actually establishing a large foothold in the Middle East..
    Husain Haqqani, the former Pakistan Ambassador to US:
    I think that Zawahiri's attempt to talk about India is essentially to try and get the hard line elements among Pakistani jihadis and even within the Pakistani intelligence service to think about al-Qaeda as a potential ally. That's his play. I don't think he will get much traction. But basically what he's trying to do is to appeal to the anti-Indian sentiment that is present in Pakistan on any given day and hoping to get recruits for his cause
    Link:http://articles.economictimes.indiat...-zawahiri-isis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    One should not be too perturbed about this ISIS.

    After the demise of their Prophet, Islam converted from a Spiritual Islam to a Political Islam - meaning seeking who is the real inheritor of their Prophet. It simple terms - raw Power Lust!

    Till now, it was confined to two major sects. They have been at it decimating the other all over the world.

    Now, it has shifted to individuals using Islam for their own self aggrandisation.

    They will fight each other to the last Moslem.
    Sir, perhaps this article will be of interest to you.



    http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014...o-in-pakistan/

    A quote

    With the ISIS taking over the TTP as the chief terrorist organisation in Pakistan, obviously all Taliban apologists would henceforth be dubbed ISIS apologists. There’s one in sleeping inside a container at D-Chowk right now, who would be the first to dub ISIS freedom fighters. ISIS can then join the Azadi March, help dethrone the prime minister and take the democratic route towards the caliphate.
    What would be the implications for India if ISIS were successful in that goal?

    I know you call this site "Yawn", but...

    http://www.dawn.com/news/1116799

    Among many factors, the Pakistani state's protracted apathy and inaction on the issue of security has provided non-state actors the spaces to grow and expand their influence. They used these spaces not only to propagate their ideologies and narratives but also to establish a 'state within the state' in Pakistan's tribal areas.

    Even as counteraction is now underway, the sudden rise of ISIS has threatened to make matters worse for us.
    Last edited by WGEwald; 09-15-2014 at 11:58 PM.

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    Mr. Khorasani has long been seen as one of the movement’s most ideological commanders, and his separation from the main Taliban branch prompted speculation among experts over an alliance with ISIS, which has captured a vast section of territory across Syria and Iraq and has declared itself the new Islamic caliphate.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/wo...iban.html?_r=0

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    The ISIS, introducing itself as Daulat-e-Islamia (Islamic State) in the pamphlet, has made an appeal to the local population for supporting its struggle for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate.

    A number of hardline groups operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan have already announced support for the group headed by Afghan Taliban. Among them, Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost and Maulvi Abdul Qahar, stalwarts of Saudi Arabia-backed Salafi Taliban groups operating in Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan, have already announced support for the self-styled caliph Abu Bakr alBaghdadi.
    http://tribune.com.pk/story/757200/s...into-pakistan/

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    ISIS pamphlets and flags have appeared in parts of Pakistan and India, signs that the ultra-radical Islamist group is trying to inspire militants even in the strongholds of the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

    A splinter group of Pakistan's Taliban insurgents, Jamat-ul Ahrar, has already declared its support for the well-funded and ruthless Islamic State of Iraq and Syria fighters, who have captured large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in a drive to set up a self-declared caliphate.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/isis-pr...ndia-1.2758299

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    Quote Originally Posted by WGEwald View Post
    Sir, perhaps this article will be of interest to you.



    http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014...o-in-pakistan/

    A quote



    What would be the implications for India if ISIS were successful in that goal?

    I know you call this site "Yawn", but...

    http://www.dawn.com/news/1116799
    Thanks.

    I wonder if ISIS will come to India and if it will be successful.

    That apart, check this
    http://www.smallwars.com/forum/analy...ncy-experience
    Last edited by Ray; 09-21-2014 at 07:53 AM.

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    Default The soldier as state actor: Garrison governance

    A reasonably lengthy Indian newspaper review of the role of the soldier (and paramilitary) in India today and I do rather like the phrase 'Garrison governance':http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...?homepage=true
    davidbfpo

  18. #178
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    Default Get the picture: India's Maoist insurgency

    The map is great, partly as I don't recall catching one before. The accompanying report darws attention to the impact of actual and potential gains from mining iron ore in large areas of the maoist insurgency:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...mining-riches?

    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A reasonably lengthy Indian newspaper review of the role of the soldier (and paramilitary) in India today and I do rather like the phrase 'Garrison governance':http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...?homepage=true
    About the author.

    Vasundhara has previously worked on student politics in India, right-wing movements and gender terrorism. Vasundhara has an MA and an M.Phil degree from the Center for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.


    These words when stitched together have been more detrimental to India than the 10,000 trained militants in the LeT training camp. JNU is an eminent organization that has, for the last 45 years provided India with an unlimited supply of "Jholawallas".

    https://sites.google.com/site/brfdic...ry/j/jholawala

    An article which was written about these "jholawalas" 25 years ago has reappeared and is as true today as it was then. Hope you enjoy.

    http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/n.../1/323796.html

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    http://www.newindianexpress.com/nati...cle2849301.ece

    IMPHAL/ GUWAHATI/ NEW DELHI: At least 18 soldiers were killed and 11 others injured on Thursday when militants ambushed their convoy in Manipur's Chandel district, officials said, terming it the worst such attack on the Indian Army in over a decade.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, among others, condemned the attack.

    According to Indian Army sources, the team that was attacked belonged to 6 Dogra Regiment and was an administrative convoy moving out of its location.

    The attack occurred between Paralong and Charong villages, around 8.30 a.m.

    The militants used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and also opened heavy fire at the four-vehicle convoy.

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    For the last few years North East had been quite peaceful by Indian standards. This ambush will create a lot of ripples and it will be the common Manipuri who will suffer the most.

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