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Thread: Iran: ally, friend or enemy? (2015 onwards)

  1. #1
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    Default Iran: ally, friend or enemy? (2015 onwards)

    Russia & Iran: Strategic Alliance or Marriage of Convenience

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    Default The Strategy is Working in Iraq…for Iran

    The Strategy is Working in Iraq…for Iran

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    Default Should America fight more like Iran?

    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Militar...aises-eyebrows

    Should America fight more like Iran? Pentagon official raises eyebrows.

    The Pentagon's No. 2 civilian said the US need to be better at operating in the 'gray zone' of 'deception, infiltration, and persistent denial.' But that doesn't mean America has to play dirty, some expert say.
    I think a counter argument is that America should fight more like America, and I don't mean RMA, but when we decide to fight, then fight to win. We can and should (and do) incorporate aspects of unconventional warfare, so little is new here.

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    Default Despite Nuclear Deal, US and Iran Locked in Regional Shadow War

    Despite Nuclear Deal, US and Iran Locked in Regional Shadow War

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    Council Member kowalskil's Avatar
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    Default Iran: ally, friend or enemy (merged thread)

    Nuclear Iran?

    I agree with those who think the Iran agreement should be supported, first because nothing better seems to be available, second because I suspect that technological means of supervision (to avoid a global catastrophe), are available in the USA. Here is what I have just posted on that subject, at an Internet forum for physics teachers:

    " ... How can one detect the strongly-enriched uranium, placed either inside or outside of a bomb? I am sure that nuclear physicists have been addressing this problem, in the context of inspecting vessels arriving to our ports, or crossing our borders.

    One possible approach is to irradiate a suspected object with a source of slow neutrons (for example, a Cf-252 source surrounded by pure graphite or paraffin). The slow neutrons, in turn, would induce fission; fission fragments would be gamma radioactive and gamma rays would be detectable from outside the suspected material. ... " The idea is simple, but it presents some practical difficulties, as always. For example, how can one distinguish gamma rays emitted by fission products in the enriched uranium from the gamma rays emitted by fission products in the Cf-252 source? Will the method work despite the presence of the cosmic background?

    Ludwik Kowalski, a retired nuclear physicist (see Wikipedia)

    http: //csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/life/intro.html
    Ludwik Kowalski, author of a free ON-LINE book entitled “Diary of a Former Communist: Thoughts, Feelings, Reality.”

    http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/life/intro.html

    It is a testimony based on a diary kept between 1946 and 2004 (in the USSR, Poland, France and the USA).

    The more people know about proletarian dictatorship the less likely will we experience is.

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    The United States has confirmed that Iran tested a medium-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon in "clear violation" of a United Nations Security Council ban on ballistic missile tests, a senior US official said on Friday.
    http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/U...missile-426190
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
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    Default Middle East Tensions Boil as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain Cut Ties with Iran

    Middle East Tensions Boil as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain Cut Ties with Iran

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    Default Pentagon: Iran Holding 2 U.S. Navy Boats

    Pentagon: Iran Holding 2 U.S. Navy Boats

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    Default Iran Releases US Sailors

    Iran Releases US Sailors

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    Default U.N. Agency Clears Way for Lifting of Iran Sanctions

    U.N. Agency Clears Way for Lifting of Iran Sanctions

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default A "moderate" Iran after the nuclear deal

    A detailed explanation about Iran, the complex interplay between factions, leaders, policies and the outside world - including the USA and West generally by David Patrikarakos (who has a book on the nuclear aspects):
    http://www.thetower.org/article/this...-nuclear-deal/

    The BLUF:
    The post-deal Islamic Republic is going to be harder to handle. The world had better get used to that.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Moderator's Note

    There are a number of threads on Iran, the vast majority are historical about the nuclear aspects (including independent action by Israel) and they have been closed.

    There are several threads that maybe useful for reference:
    1) a very small, new one Iran: ally, friend or enemy (merged thread 2015 onwards, into which this thread will go one day):http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=22522
    2) a long running, short one Iran & AQ: a safe haven or holding cell?:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17236
    3) a long running Iran, Nukes and Diplomacy 2011-2014, which went quiet in terms of posts in 2014-2015:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=14500
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Inside Iran

    From a "lurker":
    I would add the dimension of regime in-fighting in context of this month's elections between "centrists" like Rouhani and Rafsanjani and the hardliners. Tension at its highest since 2009.
    davidbfpo

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    From the Israeli "think tank" the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Center, their latest 'Spotlight on Iran':
    It is based on reports in the Iranian media and written for the ITIC by Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran's politics, society, foreign policy and social networks.
    Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20957
    davidbfpo

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    Another "big win" from the Iran Deal from the "Iranian moderates"......

    Khamenei.ir
    ‏@khamenei_ir
    All problems root in arrogant powers at the top of which is US and the Zionist regime is epitome of evil.

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    Reference the Obama/Kerry tilt to Iran in the hope of a more moderate Iran....

    A stern push-back from @EliLake on the torrent of nonsense about "moderates" being "elected" in Iran
    http://bv.ms/1n0anTB

    The search for nuance in Iran after Khamenei and the Guard Corps have gutted even Rafsanjani is a staggering example of wish-thinking.

    The so called Obama hoped for moderates only have 69 seats vs the over 250 plus radical/conservative seats...not a majority thus no voice.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-29-2016 at 03:42 PM. Reason: Copied from the Syria 2016 thread

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    WHY is this so important for the Syrian war...this means that Khamenei and the IRGC will just keep on fighting to maintain their land corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to turn a major Arab Sunni nation state into a Shia controlled state.....the moderates ACTUALLY did voice their support publicly for the war as well......
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-29-2016 at 03:42 PM. Reason: Copied from the Syria 2016 thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    WHY is this so important for the Syrian war...this means that Khamenei and the IRGC will just keep on fighting to maintain their land corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to turn a major Arab Sunni nation state into a Shia controlled state.....the moderates ACTUALLY did voice their support publicly for the war as well......
    Indeed. Who to hell told either Oblabla or the Mentalist any Iranians might change their opinions about Syria?

    Their 'moderates' (the side that 'won' latest 'elections') is designated as such just because of Western wishful thinking. Actually, they're well-known as loyalists to by ultra-conservatives (who, in turn are such 'true Shi'a clergy, that all are lacking necessary qualifications for their positions, while the those that don't are all sitting in house-arrest in Qom).

    On the contrary: absolutely nothing changed in regards of how much is the IRI controlled by the ultra-conservatives - and even less so in regards of influence upon Iranian security- and foreign policies by the Khamenei clique and the IRGC.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-29-2016 at 03:42 PM. Reason: Copied from the Syria 2016 thread

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    Report 12 members of nuclear negotiating team arrested by Iran for espionage
    http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ir
    an-News/Iranians-officials-arrested-for-spying-473021#
    Hardliners are now tacking control
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-19-2016 at 07:42 PM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread

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    Former Iranian president Rafsanjani dies of heart attack: state media
    http://reut.rs/2iWIMoO

    Three people built and then sustained the Islamic Republic. Khomeini, Rafsanjani and Khamenei.Rafsanjani made 2 mistakes. The first & worst was to allow the IRGC into the Iranian economy. This would prove catastrophic for his faction (& Iran) it turned the IRGC from just a military org into a force that would permeate and ultimately dominate all levels of Iranian society: economically, politically and militarily.

    The IRI we see we see today: with Iran resurgent across the ME can be traced (*in part*) to that decision. The second mistake he made was to think he could "control" Khamenei forever.

    As time passed Khamenei consolidated power, esp after 2009 uprising. When Khamenei, breaking with protocol, directly intervened in Iranian politics on side of Ahmadinejad whose fraudulent re-election as president had brought the people onto the streets in protest.In so doing Khamenei threw his lot in with Ahmadinejad and the IRGC that backed him, and drew away from Rafsanjani and the clerics in the holy city of Qom.

    Since then Rafsanjani became marginalised & an overt government critic. He was banned from standing as Pres in last elect.

    In its place is an IRI dominated less by the clerics and more by the IRGC. Right now in Iran there is a huge struggle between President Rouhani - a *moderate* - who wants greater cooperation with the west & entrenched hardliners who are against any further cooperation with the West. Cooperation w the west = no "Great Satan", a founding principle of the IRI.

    And no common enemy with which to unite the people around. Rafsanjani's death weakens Rouhani and empowers hardliners.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-10-2017 at 03:11 PM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread.

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