Thanks again to Zenpundit for bringing this study to our attention. For a link see his earlier post on this thread. The report is written from a US government perspective. I've read the report and provide a few point from it along with some editorial for discussion.

Future Trends

Globalization, defined as the growing interconnectedness reflected in the flow of information, technology, capital, goods, services and people world-wide. It will favor those who possess or have access to technology over those with a relative lack. It requires a global infrastructural system of conduits for the associated transfer, and rules to govern that transfer. There are vulnerabilities to this system, including the physical secutrity of the transfer mechanisms and potential methods of activity that fall outside the rules associated with this system. Globalization will leave pockets of people behind, even in close proximity to other groups who enjoy its benefits. This will contribute to instability and insecurity. The report states this is the megatrend that will "shape all other major trends in the world of 2020."

Challenges to the Nation State

The report expects the nation state to continue to dominate the geopolitical environment, but forsees challenges from globalization, international corporations and other integrating organizations, religion-based or identity politics, and an overwhelmed internation support infrastructure. It also notes a risk of a roll-back of democratization associated with what has been referred to as the "third wave of democratization," the former Soviet republics and in southeast asia in particular. The challenges associated with demographic issues confronting nations will provide substantial challenge as well. The report focuses on youth bulges, but I think that the aging populations faced by several nations will prove particularly challenging too.

The report addresses the potential for pervasive insecurity to emerge from the influence of weak and weakening governments, lagging economies, religious extermism and demographic bulges. This risks a multitude of internal and regional conflicts. I think this is especially the case along the energy and identity politics lines. The report assess the possibility of these conflicts escalating to major power conflict as remote, owing in part to the influence of globalization.

Regarding the employment of the terror tactic, the report states that these situations will provide the foundation for some to conclude terror is the appropriate tactic on a larger scale.