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Thread: Flight KGL9268: shot down over Sinai?

  1. #1
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    Unconfirmed....the Russia aircraft had a history of technical problems prior to this flight, but it appeared also to be an engine issue that does not rule out a SAM hit.

    Will wait to see how this plays out..........

    Video claim shot down #Russia' passenger plane above #Egypt #Sinai today
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYvZ0u6vqQY
    Fake? or not?

    IS has been operating in the area......configuration of the aircraft does appear to be an Airbus 320 series---might have in fact been returning due to an emergency call by the pilot and then hit by a SAM????

    Sinai: don't want to speculate to much but Ansar Bait al-Maqdis DOES have manpads.
    https://youtu.be/QWztP6rDges
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-01-2015 at 09:40 AM. Reason: Copied from the main Syrian thread

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    Interesting if true as it appears the Airbus had engine issues and that would not have caused it to brake up in mid air........the IS video did show the aircraft training smoke from the engines

    If news that #7K9268 bodies are found up to a 5km radius, then almost certain aircraft broke up in the air. RIP to the dead.

    Russian pilots didn't let #Egypt air traf. controller know on emergencies, didn't ask for landing #7K9268 #Airbus321
    pic.twitter.com/wdp7NmIv64
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-01-2015 at 09:40 AM. Reason: Copied from the main Syrian thread

  3. #3
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Flight KGL9268: shot down over Sinai?

    Yassin Musharbash (based in Germany) examines the claim by ISIS(Sinai) that they caused the crash and deaths:
    What should we make of the IS claim of responsibility?
    He concludes:
    So, what should me make of all of this?That's easy:
    * This incident should NOT be counted as an IS terror attack (yet).
    * We should consider the written claim of responsibility by the IS Sinai province as quite possibly authentic, but not beyond doubt. Furthermore we should bear in mind that even if authentic, it can still be wrong
    * We need to look closely at what the technical investigations will tell us
    * We should look out for IS publications containing credible pieces of insider information.
    Link:http://abususu.blogspot.be/2015/10/w...-claim-of.html

    For background on the crash of the Russian owned airliner I have relied upon the BBC's reporting:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34689870
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    The facts don't add up to an IS attack at the moment.

    The aircraft was at 31K feet when contact was lost, and air traffic control radar analysis has highlighted a rapid drop (less than 30 seconds) in airspeed from 400+ kts to around 60 kts, followed by loss of track.

    (reference the innterview towards ther bottom of the page)

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34687139

    Although more detailed analysis of the flight recorders are needed and there are conflicting reports of whether the pilot asked for vectoring to a divert airfield just before the aircraft went down, a surface-to-air missile does not look like a culprit.

    MANPADs possessed by any Sinai insurgents wouldn't be able to even strike an a/c at that altitude.

    I suppose a bomb could be the culprit, and it wouldn't have to be a Hollywood-style endeavour to bring a plane down. There is definitely a lot of security theater at the terminal and a timer-based device could be just as easily emplaced through cargo access, with a bit of effort.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Interesting if true as it appears the Airbus had engine issues and that would not have caused it to brake up in mid air........the IS video did show the aircraft training smoke from the engines

    If news that #7K9268 bodies are found up to a 5km radius, then almost certain aircraft broke up in the air. RIP to the dead.

    Russian pilots didn't let #Egypt air traf. controller know on emergencies, didn't ask for landing #7K9268 #Airbus321
    pic.twitter.com/wdp7NmIv64

    Here is a some additional info..... a number of Syrian commenters who have been tracking IS since 2011 do not in fact rule out 100% a SAM hit.

    The aircraft literally broke up in mid air. the pilot did not at anytime state his emergency, the smart phone video while grainy did in fact depict the shape and configuration of an airbus in descent, flight radar 24 in fact confirms a sink rate of 6K feet per minute and it was when the video was made at SAM height, and the video depicts the aircraft trailing black smoke from the engine area.

    Social media open source checks have indicated no old photo depicting a burning Airbus previously anywhere in the net.

    On top of all of this AF and Lufthansa immediately stopped flying over the area AND the Russians have an overall poor performance rate on the maintenance of their commercial aircraft--this Airbus if reporting is correct was over 20 years old and the pilot had complained about the plane's conditions to his wife.

    Side note--there has not been any reported similar mid air breakups by any Airbus before and there is a large number of them over 20 years and still flying daily.

    If one looks at the crash site photos the plane hit the ground in about three main pieces and burnt out--interesting is the fact that at one of the burn sites with a large amount of crash wreckage the wings/engines were nowhere to be seen which seems to indicate they detached earlier and in mid air.

    Still a puzzle I think......
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-02-2015 at 07:20 AM.

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    This seems to show that the only thing missing onthe ground was the tail:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-up-in-mid-air

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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    This seems to show that the only thing missing onthe ground was the tail:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-up-in-mid-air
    Interesting that the owner of the aircraft today has "lanced" the thought that there was something more at work that engine problems.

    Might simply be CYA on their part to coverup any poor maintenance on the aircraft BUT more international airlines are no longer flying over the crash area and they have not clearly stated why that is??

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    My guess is they are not flying over the Sinai for illogical reasons, the seats just can't be sold, and they have to show due diligence on being "careful".

    No matter the final determination of the cause, this is going to tank tourism even further and hurt Sisi. Cairo bookings are already in the crapper and the bombing of the Mexican convoy in the desert was bad but somewhat manageable through PR spin.

    The Egyptians, Airbus, Russians, and EU onlookers are all going to press for a conclusive determination of the cause and a very public release of the results.

    If it turns out an engine took a dump or the airframe split, Sisi will demand that the word gets out in order to deflect any concerns of insurgent action in his country. He'll play the Russians to ensure they release those details if that's how it shakes out. Russia can point a finger at Airbus and blame the OEM.

    If it turns out to be terrorism, Airbus will be all over that to prove its aircraft was airworthy.

    The Russian government has little to lose, no matter how this plays out, so it's pretty even odds that the cause will be released, if it can be conclusively determined.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    My guess is they are not flying over the Sinai for illogical reasons, the seats just can't be sold, and they have to show due diligence on being "careful".

    No matter the final determination of the cause, this is going to tank tourism even further and hurt Sisi. Cairo bookings are already in the crapper and the bombing of the Mexican convoy in the desert was bad but somewhat manageable through PR spin.

    The Egyptians, Airbus, Russians, and EU onlookers are all going to press for a conclusive determination of the cause and a very public release of the results.

    If it turns out an engine took a dump or the airframe split, Sisi will demand that the word gets out in order to deflect any concerns of insurgent action in his country. He'll play the Russians to ensure they release those details if that's how it shakes out. Russia can point a finger at Airbus and blame the OEM.

    If it turns out to be terrorism, Airbus will be all over that to prove its aircraft was airworthy.

    The Russian government has little to lose, no matter how this plays out, so it's pretty even odds that the cause will be released, if it can be conclusively determined.
    The really interesting piece of info is that the trail sectuion broke cleanly from the aircraft---the same place had when it was flown by another airline a recent "tailstrike" on landing that was completely repaired--the photo of the tail section shows a truly clean break all around that repair--almost a perfect separation.

    A German air investigator is speculating either the repair failed or a bomb in the rear luggage section would have caused the tail section to cleanly separate as well as that was the weakest point in the airframe. He went on to state that this area is normally one of the strongest points in the Airbus construction. He is pointing to a potential repair failure as the tail section was almost intact but would not rule out a bomb.

    Russia media #TASS:
    Technical "inspection of the aircraft did not take place b4 its flight"
    https://archive.is/BjjVH pic.twitter.com/Ran2rmwEYN
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-02-2015 at 06:03 PM.

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    Putin's delayed reaction is a sign there is still uncertainty over what caused the plane to break up mid-air.

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/541492.html

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    Life News has the reputation in eastern Ukraine as being the "LieNews"--still this comment is interesting in itself...........

    Lifenews: "medical forensic report shows passengers sitting in back died from explosion, 90% of body surface burned"
    http://lifenews.ru/news/167897

    Would suggest a bomb onboard.....in the rear luggage area or in someone's take on luggage..

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    But bombs going off in cargo holds don't necessarily cause flash burn injuries.

    Exploding fuel might cause that, and when you look at the photos of the airframe wreckage on the ground (sans the tail section), it looks like components immediately surrounding and aft of the engines burned to some extent.

    The more logical explanation is that a large chunk of the airframe impacted the ground intact and either burst into flame or continued to burn after igniting at some higher altitude. That's where they got the burns.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    But bombs going off in cargo holds don't necessarily cause flash burn injuries.

    Exploding fuel might cause that, and when you look at the photos of the airframe wreckage on the ground (sans the tail section), it looks like components immediately surrounding and aft of the engines burned to some extent.

    The more logical explanation is that a large chunk of the airframe impacted the ground intact and either burst into flame or continued to burn after igniting at some higher altitude. That's where they got the burns.
    UK govt believes 'the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device'.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    The BBC News leading item is about this:
    The Russian plane that crashed in Egypt at the weekend "may well have been brought down by an explosive device", Downing Street has said.All flights between the UK and Sharm el-Sheikh have been suspended on Wednesday evening as UK experts assess security at the Egyptian airport.
    Number 10 said flights had been delayed as a "precautionary measure" after "more information has come to light".
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34724604


    Now:
    ntelligence suggests the Russian plane that crashed in Egypt killing all 224 people on board was likely brought down by a bomb, US and UK officials say. But they say they have yet to reach a formal conclusion.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34728901
    davidbfpo

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    Default A mess in the making for the UK?

    So we now reportedly have 2k plus UK tourists in Sharm-el-Sheikh stranded, plus more who cannot get there at home. One of the bigger travel operators has 1700 alone.

    Tomorrow President Sisi is due to visit London, on a state visit and already Egyptian diplomats are angry - as tourism to Sharm is effectively over for the UK, however temporary. Before the halt to UK flights he was interviewed by the BBC and claimed all of Sinai was under control:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34703978
    davidbfpo

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    Pretty good evidence here. High probability this was an ISIS bomb from inside the plane.
    https://twitter.com/robpulsenews/sta...43750382837760

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    It may have been a bomb, but is that what Daesh was claiming? I thought they claimed that they shot the plane down.

    If I had really brought the plane down I think I would know how I did it.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Kremlin says US or Israel shot down #7K9268:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/RobPulseN...23816870002688

    What is the Obama WH doing about this? ZERO.
    http://observer.com/2015/11/obama-fa...ganda-machine/

  19. #19
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    Default Amidst the smoke some conclusions

    From Jason Burke, the SME on terrorism for The Guardian, he concludes that:
    If it was indeed an Isis bomb that brought down the plane – and both Egypt and Russia have downplayed any suggestion that the crash is linked to terrorism – then this still does not signal that the group has launched a fully fledged global campaign of violence. Yet.
    Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-war-on-terror

    The Soufan Group briefing ends with:
    Beyond the immediate theater of the Syrian civil war, the international community will have to recalculate the degree to which the threat from terrorism has increased as a result of the Islamic State joining al-Qaeda as a group capable of attacks outside its main area of operation. It is depressing that after 14 years of counterterrorism measures that have focused in particular on protecting civilian aviation, the threat to passenger transportation seems as real as ever.
    Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...skies/?catid=3
    davidbfpo

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    Default Amidst the smoke there was chatter beforehand

    The Egyptian security shutdown was sparked after British spies intercepted messages which showed Isil extremists had plotted a major terror attack in the region, the Telegraph can disclose. The communications and “chatter” - uncovered by British intelligence only after the Russian passenger jet tragedy - are what led David Cameron to say it was “more likely than not” that a bomb brought the plane down on Saturday killing 224 people.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...air-crash.html
    davidbfpo

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