Venezuela (2006-2018)

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 22 Feb 07: Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution

...Three scenarios could trouble Chávez. The likeliest, at least in the next few years, is that problems will arise if oil prices drop to a point where the president can neither sustain current social spending, nor paper over the economic distortions produced by exchange rate and price controls, inflation and increasing dependence on imports....

...A second possibility is political recovery of the opposition to the point where it could take control of the National Assembly and provide a serious alternative. This is a distant prospect, since further splintering of the opposition has become apparent, but, in the event, the president might choose to use the considerable array of non-democratic tools he has amassed over the last eight years, and diehard Chavistas might be prepared to resort to violence to defend the regime....

...A third scenario involves a challenge to Chávez from within his movement. There are some fissures and tensions over where the president is taking the country, and at some point it is conceivable that elements within the administration might challenge Chávez´s handling of power....

...There is also the question as to what kind of country any non-Bolivarian president would inherit. If current trends continue, an opposition president would face a partisan military, the ultimate arbiter of power, with limited means by which to control it....

...As in Colombia and Mexico, there is an additional danger of crime, particularly drugs, creating a destabilising dynamic, corrupting institutions on a scale that causes the public to lose what little faith remains in the police and judiciary. Corruption of the armed forces, already evident, could also undermine security. More dangerous still would be a transformation of the armed, irregular Chavista groups into criminal mafias....

...Violent internal conflict is only potential in these scenarios and situations, not inevitable, but if President Chávez continues to polarise society and dismantle the checks and balances of representative democracy as he has for eight years, the risks are considerable.

[Jedburgh]

SSI, 24 Aug 07: Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez

In 2005, Dr. Max Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare. It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. The rhetoric continues. Moreover, President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about.

Thus, Dr. Manwaring’s intent in this new monograph is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it. First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America....

[AdamG]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow today to shop for air defense systems, submarines and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 23 Jul 08: Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?

....President Chávez faces mounting pressure from not only the political opposition and student movement, but also his own support base, including social sectors that had been a fundamental pillar of his regime. Following a landslide re-election in December 2006, he sought to accelerate his “socialism of the XXIst century”, but his government was unable to cope with widening dissatisfaction caused by a project that increased concentration of power in his hands without improving the living standards of a majority of citizens and deteriorating public services, or reducing chronic food shortages, double-digit inflation or crime and government corruption. The result was defeat of the government’s sweeping constitutional reforms in the 2 December 2007 referendum.

The pro-Chávez camp is losing momentum. It has become bureaucratic, corruption is rampant, and its capacity to manage the country is poor. Regional and local grassroots are increasingly disappointed by the top-down style of the new PSUV party, which also is under mounting pressure from the smaller chavista groups. The struggle for political supremacy could further divide the pro-Chávez political and social elements, turning the 23 November 2008 municipal and state elections into a litmus test for the future of Chávez and his movement.....

[Watcher In The Middle]

Venezuela to host Russia navy exercise in Caribbean
Dated: Saturday; September 6, 2008

(Reuters) - Several Russian ships and 1,000 soldiers will take part in joint naval maneuvers with Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea later this year, exercises likely to increase diplomatic tensions with Washington, a pro-government newspaper reported on Saturday.

Quoting Venezuela's naval intelligence director, Salbarore Cammarata, the newspaper Vea said four Russian boats would visit Venezuelan waters from November 10 to 14.

Plans for the naval operations come at a time of heightened diplomatic tension and Cold War-style rhetoric between Moscow and the United States over the recent war in Georgia and plans for a U.S. missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Link to Article

This should be a "sure thing" to re-start the debate over what actions the US should take. One thing it will accomplish in the American hemisphere is to re-start the entire Free Trade argument over the deal with Columbia, along with new arms shipments and additional military support for Columbia.

But more importantly, I could see this creating an impetus for new US arms exports of certain types of "defensive" weaponry to democratically inclined nations currently sharing a border with Russia. I wonder how much in current gen ATGM's could be purchased with a billion dollars or so?

[Ron Humphrey]

Link to Article

This should be a "sure thing" to re-start the debate over what actions the US should take. One thing it will accomplish in the American hemisphere is to re-start the entire Free Trade argument over the deal with Columbia, along with new arms shipments and additional military support for Columbia.

But more importantly, I could see this creating an impetus for new US arms exports of certain types of "defensive" weaponry to democratically inclined nations currently sharing a border with Russia. I wonder how much in current gen ATGM's could be purchased with a billion dollars or so?

I'm still kinda curious as to exactly how much of a threat Hugo is to anyone considering his own internal problems and as such these actions are simply good for exactly good enough reason for what you stated. Everyone else around him arming up. Not quite sure how that helps him in his mindset.

As to Russia sending ships there for exercises I'd think it might be somewhat of a bummer to those in the Russian navy.

Think about it :

On the one hand you could be training and taking part of large scale operations with some of the strongest and most potent Naval forces ever

or

Option number two -Go play with Chavez (I'd be willing to bet there are some very perturbed officers right about now)

[Watcher In The Middle]

On the one hand you could be training and taking part of large scale operations with some of the strongest and most potent Naval forces ever

or

Option number two -Go play with Chavez (I'd be willing to bet there are some very perturbed officers right about now)

I can just see those poor souls at attention on deck while Hugo is giving one of his usual multiple hour snoozers (and in those temps). I mean, the guy never knows when to shut up. He can literally talk so long that he makes Granite weep.

Btw, found an interesting answer to ATGM's you could buy with around a billion dollars:

Jan 10/07: RAFAEL and General Dynamics Santa Barbara Systems of Spain announce a $424.5 million contract with the Spanish Army for 2,600 SPIKE-LR missiles and 260 launchers missile systems. In addition to their anti-armor uses, their guidance system also allows the operator to target slow-flying aerial targets like helicopters and UAVs. The missiles will equip Spain’s land forces, including infantry, vehicles, and helicopters. Deliveries will take place from 2007-2014.

Link to Article

So, for probably around $900 mil (with inflation, but a quantity discount), you should be able to pick up around 5,200 missiles and 520 launchers.

[AdamG]

"Accident"
<pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>

MARACAY, Venezuela – A fire and a series of explosions tore through a military arms depot Sunday, killing one person and leading authorities to evacuate thousands of people.

About 10,000 residents fled their homes in areas up to several miles (kilometers) from the site as the burning ammunition produced powerful blasts, officials said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110130/...lyZWV4cGxvc2lv

[Dayuhan]

"Accident"
<pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>

Might have actually been an accident.

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately be explained by stupidity... or incompetence.

[bourbon]

"Accident"
<pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>

Chavez got lucky post-9/11 with the War on Terrorism, the retired covert action / dirty tricks / Iran-Contra types were in demand elsewhere. Heck, I even read in the NYT last month that Dewey Clarridge is still running around, said he was throwing dirt on the Karzai’s.

[davidbfpo]

A short article by an ICG expert:http://www.opendemocracy.net/silke-p...e-and-politics

I have read about the scale of violence and the police being brutal, but the details are new to me and alarming. So taking one paragraph:

The former interior and justice minister Jesse Chacón recently claimed the government had inherited the problem from former administrations. Fair enough: when Hugo Chávez took over the presidency in 1999, homicide rates had already tripled over the previous decade. But what Chacón did not mention is that they almost quadrupled in the following twelve years, from 4,550 in 1998 to 17,600 in 2010.

This insight speaks volumes:

The daily killings in Venezuelan cities so far do not seem to have significantly affected President Chávez’s popularity.

[Ray]

The daily killings in Venezuelan cities so far do not seem to have significantly affected President Chávez’s popularity.

Extraordinary!

What could be the reason?

[AdamG]

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez said Wednesday that his navy detected a submarine in Venezuelan waters and that it quickly sped off.
The submarine was detected on Tuesday near the Venezuelan island of La Orchila in the Caribbean north of Caracas, where Venezuelan troops are participating in training drills near the island, Chavez told state television by telephone.
"It was pursued. It escaped because it's much faster than ours," Chavez said, referring to Venezuela's diesel-powered submarines. He said that judging by its speed and size, "it's a nuclear-powered submarine."
Chavez said his government was unable to say what nation might have sent the sub. "We can't accuse anyone," Chavez said, adding that his government is investigating.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/1...#ixzz1dNRWyJ6s