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Thread: Venezuela (catch all)

  1. #1
    Council Member Stratiotes's Avatar
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    Default Venezuela (catch all)

    Moderator's Note

    Until October 2013 this thread was called 'Venezuela, Hugo Chavez and what next?' and was renamed 'Venezuela (catch all)' (ends).


    An interesting take on their ability to see our weakness.

    CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez constantly warns Venezuelans a U.S. invasion is imminent.

    Now he's begun training a civilian militia as well as the Venezuelan army to resist in the only way possible against a much better-equipped force: by taking to the hills and fighting a guerrilla war.......
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-19-2013 at 10:07 PM. Reason: Add note
    Mark
    Discuss at: The Irregulars Visit at: UW Review
    "The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him." - G. K. Chesterton

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    Default Nothing new

    Post #55, Next small war?

    Jorge Verstrynge: The Guru of Bolivarian Asymmetric Warfare


    Quote Originally Posted by Vcrisis
    09.09.05 | The new national defense doctrine adopted recently by the Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is based on the core premise that Venezuela will someday (soon) fight a David vs. Goliath war against invading U.S. military forces. This doctrine calls for a long-term “asymmetric war” in which committed Bolivarian revolutionaries and foreign (mainly Cuban) supporters would wage a “war of the people” on all fronts against the invading U.S. military forces. This new doctrine wasn’t devised overnight. It was several years in the making. Cuban military and political planners were very influential in the process from a strategic and tactical perspective. However, the national defense doctrine of asymmetric warfare also has its philosophical and ideological proponents, like Jorge Verstrynge, for example.

    First there was Norberto Ceresole, the Argentine neo-fascist and anti-semite who Chavez embraced in the late 1990s because Ceresole had written at length on the need for authoritarian military-civil regimes in which civilians and military would be mobilized jointly to carry out the will of a supreme leader. However, Ceresole eventually fell out of favor with Chavez, and died of a terminal illness. Now it’s Verstrynge’s turn to bask under the Bolivarian sun. Chavez is very enthused with Verstrynge, as is Division General Raul Isaias Baduel, the Bolivarian army commander who likes to quote Sun Tzu, and burn incense in his office while Gregorian chants play softly in the background.

    Verstrynge is the author of a book titled “La Guerra Periferica y el Islam Revolucionario: Origenes, Reglas y Etica de la Guerra Asimetrica.”

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    Default More food for thought

    Was the liberation of Iraq meant to stop the massive oil contracts (especially for China) before the UN embargo was lifted? At this very same time, our own oil is disrupted by riots in Venezuela(China behind it?), China attacks our steel industry and constantly hacks our computers. SARs mysteriously appears in China; perhaps our lousy attempt to seek revenge?

    Who is training Venezuela?

    Who is buying oil and supplying weapons to Iran?
    Last edited by GorTex6; 04-19-2006 at 09:11 PM.

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    Default Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution

    ICG, 22 Feb 07: Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution
    ...Three scenarios could trouble Chávez. The likeliest, at least in the next few years, is that problems will arise if oil prices drop to a point where the president can neither sustain current social spending, nor paper over the economic distortions produced by exchange rate and price controls, inflation and increasing dependence on imports....

    ...A second possibility is political recovery of the opposition to the point where it could take control of the National Assembly and provide a serious alternative. This is a distant prospect, since further splintering of the opposition has become apparent, but, in the event, the president might choose to use the considerable array of non-democratic tools he has amassed over the last eight years, and diehard Chavistas might be prepared to resort to violence to defend the regime....

    ...A third scenario involves a challenge to Chávez from within his movement. There are some fissures and tensions over where the president is taking the country, and at some point it is conceivable that elements within the administration might challenge Chávez´s handling of power....

    ...There is also the question as to what kind of country any non-Bolivarian president would inherit. If current trends continue, an opposition president would face a partisan military, the ultimate arbiter of power, with limited means by which to control it....

    ...As in Colombia and Mexico, there is an additional danger of crime, particularly drugs, creating a destabilising dynamic, corrupting institutions on a scale that causes the public to lose what little faith remains in the police and judiciary. Corruption of the armed forces, already evident, could also undermine security. More dangerous still would be a transformation of the armed, irregular Chavista groups into criminal mafias....

    ...Violent internal conflict is only potential in these scenarios and situations, not inevitable, but if President Chávez continues to polarise society and dismantle the checks and balances of representative democracy as he has for eight years, the risks are considerable.

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    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark

    29 May LA Times - Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark by Chris Kraul.

    Venezuelan folk music, a Cuban documentary and heavy doses of government propaganda glorifying "21st century socialism" highlighted the first day of a new television channel that on Monday took over airspace of this nation's oldest and most popular station, a frequent critic of leftist President Hugo Chavez.

    At midnight Sunday, Radio Caracas Television, or RCTV, went dark for the first time in 53 years after the Chavez government refused to renew its broadcast license, alleging violations of telecommunications law. That decision, announced in December, has been slammed by international press freedom groups, several governments and even some Chavez supporters.

    Protests that began Sunday night around the national telecommunications regulatory commission's office continued into the morning at several universities in the Caracas area...

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    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Ol' Hugo reminds me more and more of ol' Adolf (or kindly Uncle Joe) every day.
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

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    I wonder if there will be some book burning too?

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Default

    Reminds me more of this guy.

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    Default Right on!!!!!!

    Way to go, tequila! Parallel is great in more ways than one.

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    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Ah, yes...too true.
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

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    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Does his wife look like Madonna?

    Tequila, that is a great comparison. Chavez seems to have those iconic qualities for those inclined to despise the Yankees.

    Tom

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    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    And now he's going after another one....BBC story.

    Venezuela's government has accused a TV station of inciting a murder attempt on President Hugo Chavez, hours after taking another network off the air.
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Default

    The other side - RCTV and the Venezuelan media establishment are hardly innocent.

    ... After military rebels overthrew Chavez and he disappeared from public view for two days, RCTV's biased coverage edged fully into sedition. Thousands of Chavez supporters took to the streets to demand his return, but none of that appeared on RCTV or other television stations. RCTV News Director Andres Izarra later testified at National Assembly hearings on the coup attempt that he received an order from superiors at the station: "Zero pro-Chavez, nothing related to Chavez or his supporters…. The idea was to create a climate of transition and to start to promote the dawn of a new country." While the streets of Caracas burned with rage, RCTV ran cartoons, soap operas and old movies such as "Pretty Woman." On April 13, 2002, Granier and other media moguls met in the Miraflores palace to pledge support to the country's coup-installed dictator, Pedro Carmona, who had eliminated the Supreme Court, the National Assembly and the Constitution.

    Would a network that aided and abetted a coup against the government be allowed to operate in the United States? The U.S. government probably would have shut down RCTV within five minutes after a failed coup attempt — and thrown its owners in jail. Chavez's government allowed it to continue operating for five years, and then declined to renew its 20-year license to use the public airwaves. It can still broadcast on cable or via satellite dish.

    Granier and others should not be seen as free-speech martyrs. Radio, TV and newspapers remain uncensored, unfettered and unthreatened by the government. Most Venezuelan media are still controlled by the old oligarchy and are staunchly anti-Chavez ...
    Men like Peron and Chavez do not gain widespread popular support out of nowhere.

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    Default Also in the LA Times

    This Reuters report - Venezuela's last opposition station on notice

    As tens of thousands of people marched here Tuesday in protest of President Hugo Chavez's closure of opposition television station RCTV, the leftist leader called the news channel Globovision an enemy of the state.

    The protests were in their fourth consecutive day, but state television showed hundreds of government supporters marching in downtown Caracas to celebrate Chavez's move.

    "Enemies of the homeland, particularly those behind the scenes, I will give you a name: Globovision. Greetings gentlemen of Globovision, you should watch where you are going," Chavez said in a broadcast that all channels were required to show...

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    When you have a country with possibly the largest oil reserve in the world link, there's a lot for the leader of Venezuela to be paranoid about.

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    Default Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez

    SSI, 24 Aug 07: Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez
    In 2005, Dr. Max Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare. It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. The rhetoric continues. Moreover, President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about.

    Thus, Dr. Manwaring’s intent in this new monograph is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it. First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America....

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    Council Member TROUFION's Avatar
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    Default "This could be the start of a war in South America,"

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia

    Ah Hugo, in my opinion you are a dollar store version of Cesear. But you do keep South America interesting. I wouldn't put invading Colombia beyond his mindset, could he pull that off? Would Venezuala support him and if so for how long.

    I think he could launch an invasion but beyond a few weeks it would bog down, certaintly not worth the costs. Unless he really believes his investigation into the "real reason" for Simon Bolivar's death was by Colombian Agents...

    -T
    Last edited by TROUFION; 03-03-2008 at 04:46 AM. Reason: added 2nd article

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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Post Hmmmm

    Quote Originally Posted by TROUFION View Post
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia

    Ah Hugo, in my opinion you are a dollar store version of Cesear. But you do keep South America interesting. I wouldn't put invading Colombia beyond his mindset, could he pull that off? Would Venezuala support him and if so for how long.

    I think he could launch an invasion but beyond a few weeks it would bog down, certaintly not worth the costs. Unless he really believes his investigation into the "real reason" for Simon Bolivar's death was by Colombian Agents...

    -T
    Mr. Chavez is extremely good at doing and saying whatever he wants without thinking through the end results. Me thinks Some of his neighbors might have a word or two on this and what they say will end up doing more to determine what happens then anything he dreams up.

    Just make sure nobody tells him the king isn't wearing any clothes

    As for Equador simply put, handle your own garbage or it will be handled
    for you. Sounds fair to me

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    Council Member MattC86's Avatar
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    Colombia is now claiming they uncovered intel linking FARC and Ecuador. . . which is hardly a surprise given that when under pressure, the narco groups and the guerrillas cross into Ecuador for security. I still haven't heard any good analysis about whether this is a lot of bluster or a serious chance for major conflict, but it's unnerving either way.

    Especially given that it could end up the subject matter for a "big wars" forum. . .

    Regards,

    Matt
    "Give a good leader very little and he will succeed. Give a mediocrity a great deal and he will fail." - General George C. Marshall

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    Council Member wm's Avatar
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    Default If it works

    for Turkey, why not for Colombia too?

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