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  1. #1
    Council Member Stratiotes's Avatar
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    Default Venezuela (catch all)

    Moderator's Note

    Until October 2013 this thread was called 'Venezuela, Hugo Chavez and what next?' and was renamed 'Venezuela (catch all)' (ends).


    An interesting take on their ability to see our weakness.

    CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez constantly warns Venezuelans a U.S. invasion is imminent.

    Now he's begun training a civilian militia as well as the Venezuelan army to resist in the only way possible against a much better-equipped force: by taking to the hills and fighting a guerrilla war.......
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-19-2013 at 10:07 PM. Reason: Add note
    Mark
    Discuss at: The Irregulars Visit at: UW Review
    "The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him." - G. K. Chesterton

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    Default Nothing new

    Post #55, Next small war?

    Jorge Verstrynge: The Guru of Bolivarian Asymmetric Warfare


    Quote Originally Posted by Vcrisis
    09.09.05 | The new national defense doctrine adopted recently by the Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is based on the core premise that Venezuela will someday (soon) fight a David vs. Goliath war against invading U.S. military forces. This doctrine calls for a long-term “asymmetric war” in which committed Bolivarian revolutionaries and foreign (mainly Cuban) supporters would wage a “war of the people” on all fronts against the invading U.S. military forces. This new doctrine wasn’t devised overnight. It was several years in the making. Cuban military and political planners were very influential in the process from a strategic and tactical perspective. However, the national defense doctrine of asymmetric warfare also has its philosophical and ideological proponents, like Jorge Verstrynge, for example.

    First there was Norberto Ceresole, the Argentine neo-fascist and anti-semite who Chavez embraced in the late 1990s because Ceresole had written at length on the need for authoritarian military-civil regimes in which civilians and military would be mobilized jointly to carry out the will of a supreme leader. However, Ceresole eventually fell out of favor with Chavez, and died of a terminal illness. Now it’s Verstrynge’s turn to bask under the Bolivarian sun. Chavez is very enthused with Verstrynge, as is Division General Raul Isaias Baduel, the Bolivarian army commander who likes to quote Sun Tzu, and burn incense in his office while Gregorian chants play softly in the background.

    Verstrynge is the author of a book titled “La Guerra Periferica y el Islam Revolucionario: Origenes, Reglas y Etica de la Guerra Asimetrica.”

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    Default More food for thought

    Was the liberation of Iraq meant to stop the massive oil contracts (especially for China) before the UN embargo was lifted? At this very same time, our own oil is disrupted by riots in Venezuela(China behind it?), China attacks our steel industry and constantly hacks our computers. SARs mysteriously appears in China; perhaps our lousy attempt to seek revenge?

    Who is training Venezuela?

    Who is buying oil and supplying weapons to Iran?
    Last edited by GorTex6; 04-19-2006 at 09:11 PM.

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    Default Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution

    ICG, 22 Feb 07: Venezuela: Hugo Chavez's Revolution
    ...Three scenarios could trouble Chávez. The likeliest, at least in the next few years, is that problems will arise if oil prices drop to a point where the president can neither sustain current social spending, nor paper over the economic distortions produced by exchange rate and price controls, inflation and increasing dependence on imports....

    ...A second possibility is political recovery of the opposition to the point where it could take control of the National Assembly and provide a serious alternative. This is a distant prospect, since further splintering of the opposition has become apparent, but, in the event, the president might choose to use the considerable array of non-democratic tools he has amassed over the last eight years, and diehard Chavistas might be prepared to resort to violence to defend the regime....

    ...A third scenario involves a challenge to Chávez from within his movement. There are some fissures and tensions over where the president is taking the country, and at some point it is conceivable that elements within the administration might challenge Chávez´s handling of power....

    ...There is also the question as to what kind of country any non-Bolivarian president would inherit. If current trends continue, an opposition president would face a partisan military, the ultimate arbiter of power, with limited means by which to control it....

    ...As in Colombia and Mexico, there is an additional danger of crime, particularly drugs, creating a destabilising dynamic, corrupting institutions on a scale that causes the public to lose what little faith remains in the police and judiciary. Corruption of the armed forces, already evident, could also undermine security. More dangerous still would be a transformation of the armed, irregular Chavista groups into criminal mafias....

    ...Violent internal conflict is only potential in these scenarios and situations, not inevitable, but if President Chávez continues to polarise society and dismantle the checks and balances of representative democracy as he has for eight years, the risks are considerable.

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    Default Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez

    SSI, 24 Aug 07: Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez
    In 2005, Dr. Max Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare. It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. The rhetoric continues. Moreover, President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about.

    Thus, Dr. Manwaring’s intent in this new monograph is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it. First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America....

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

    July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow today to shop for air defense systems, submarines and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning.

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    ICG, 23 Jul 08: Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?
    ....President Chávez faces mounting pressure from not only the political opposition and student movement, but also his own support base, including social sectors that had been a fundamental pillar of his regime. Following a landslide re-election in December 2006, he sought to accelerate his “socialism of the XXIst century”, but his government was unable to cope with widening dissatisfaction caused by a project that increased concentration of power in his hands without improving the living standards of a majority of citizens and deteriorating public services, or reducing chronic food shortages, double-digit inflation or crime and government corruption. The result was defeat of the government’s sweeping constitutional reforms in the 2 December 2007 referendum.

    The pro-Chávez camp is losing momentum. It has become bureaucratic, corruption is rampant, and its capacity to manage the country is poor. Regional and local grassroots are increasingly disappointed by the top-down style of the new PSUV party, which also is under mounting pressure from the smaller chavista groups. The struggle for political supremacy could further divide the pro-Chávez political and social elements, turning the 23 November 2008 municipal and state elections into a litmus test for the future of Chávez and his movement.....

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    Default Interesting Turm of Events....

    Venezuela to host Russia navy exercise in Caribbean
    Dated: Saturday; September 6, 2008

    (Reuters) - Several Russian ships and 1,000 soldiers will take part in joint naval maneuvers with Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea later this year, exercises likely to increase diplomatic tensions with Washington, a pro-government newspaper reported on Saturday.

    Quoting Venezuela's naval intelligence director, Salbarore Cammarata, the newspaper Vea said four Russian boats would visit Venezuelan waters from November 10 to 14.

    Plans for the naval operations come at a time of heightened diplomatic tension and Cold War-style rhetoric between Moscow and the United States over the recent war in Georgia and plans for a U.S. missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland.
    Link to Article

    This should be a "sure thing" to re-start the debate over what actions the US should take. One thing it will accomplish in the American hemisphere is to re-start the entire Free Trade argument over the deal with Columbia, along with new arms shipments and additional military support for Columbia.

    But more importantly, I could see this creating an impetus for new US arms exports of certain types of "defensive" weaponry to democratically inclined nations currently sharing a border with Russia. I wonder how much in current gen ATGM's could be purchased with a billion dollars or so?

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    "Accident"
    <pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>

    MARACAY, Venezuela – A fire and a series of explosions tore through a military arms depot Sunday, killing one person and leading authorities to evacuate thousands of people.

    About 10,000 residents fled their homes in areas up to several miles (kilometers) from the site as the burning ammunition produced powerful blasts, officials said.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110130/...lyZWV4cGxvc2lv
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    "Accident"
    <pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>
    Might have actually been an accident.

    Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately be explained by stupidity... or incompetence.

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    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    "Accident"
    <pinky to lips, Dr. Evil style>
    Chavez got lucky post-9/11 with the War on Terrorism, the retired covert action / dirty tricks / Iran-Contra types were in demand elsewhere. Heck, I even read in the NYT last month that Dewey Clarridge is still running around, said he was throwing dirt on the Karzai’s.

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    Default Venezuela: violence and politics

    A short article by an ICG expert:http://www.opendemocracy.net/silke-p...e-and-politics

    I have read about the scale of violence and the police being brutal, but the details are new to me and alarming. So taking one paragraph:
    The former interior and justice minister Jesse Chacón recently claimed the government had inherited the problem from former administrations. Fair enough: when Hugo Chávez took over the presidency in 1999, homicide rates had already tripled over the previous decade. But what Chacón did not mention is that they almost quadrupled in the following twelve years, from 4,550 in 1998 to 17,600 in 2010.
    This insight speaks volumes:
    The daily killings in Venezuelan cities so far do not seem to have significantly affected President Chávez’s popularity.
    davidbfpo

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    The daily killings in Venezuelan cities so far do not seem to have significantly affected President Chávez’s popularity.
    Extraordinary!

    What could be the reason?

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez said Wednesday that his navy detected a submarine in Venezuelan waters and that it quickly sped off.
    The submarine was detected on Tuesday near the Venezuelan island of La Orchila in the Caribbean north of Caracas, where Venezuelan troops are participating in training drills near the island, Chavez told state television by telephone.
    "It was pursued. It escaped because it's much faster than ours," Chavez said, referring to Venezuela's diesel-powered submarines. He said that judging by its speed and size, "it's a nuclear-powered submarine."
    Chavez said his government was unable to say what nation might have sent the sub. "We can't accuse anyone," Chavez said, adding that his government is investigating.

    Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/11/1...#ixzz1dNRWyJ6s
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
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    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark

    29 May LA Times - Venezuelan TV Station Goes Dark by Chris Kraul.

    Venezuelan folk music, a Cuban documentary and heavy doses of government propaganda glorifying "21st century socialism" highlighted the first day of a new television channel that on Monday took over airspace of this nation's oldest and most popular station, a frequent critic of leftist President Hugo Chavez.

    At midnight Sunday, Radio Caracas Television, or RCTV, went dark for the first time in 53 years after the Chavez government refused to renew its broadcast license, alleging violations of telecommunications law. That decision, announced in December, has been slammed by international press freedom groups, several governments and even some Chavez supporters.

    Protests that began Sunday night around the national telecommunications regulatory commission's office continued into the morning at several universities in the Caracas area...

  16. #16
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Ol' Hugo reminds me more and more of ol' Adolf (or kindly Uncle Joe) every day.
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

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    I wonder if there will be some book burning too?

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    Reminds me more of this guy.

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    Default Right on!!!!!!

    Way to go, tequila! Parallel is great in more ways than one.

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    Default "This could be the start of a war in South America,"

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/...zuela_colombia

    Ah Hugo, in my opinion you are a dollar store version of Cesear. But you do keep South America interesting. I wouldn't put invading Colombia beyond his mindset, could he pull that off? Would Venezuala support him and if so for how long.

    I think he could launch an invasion but beyond a few weeks it would bog down, certaintly not worth the costs. Unless he really believes his investigation into the "real reason" for Simon Bolivar's death was by Colombian Agents...

    -T
    Last edited by TROUFION; 03-03-2008 at 04:46 AM. Reason: added 2nd article

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