The US & others working with Pakistan

[George L. Singleton]

Having served long ago in Pakistan (then West Pakistan) with side trips to the old US Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, mixing in events since 911 I do not favor walking away from Afghanistan when a new plan and policy for there takes one to two years to complete forming and testing.

Premature and very questionable judgement to even suggest such, implying a pro-Taliban and al Qaida bias on the part of the writer of this question in my mind.

[omarali50]

I am the farthest thing from an alqaeda or taliban sympathizer, so lets not jump to conclusions here!
I will say that from several years experience on other email groups, I do expect massive misunderstanding in the first few exchanges. We all use heuristics that are generally useful but may be totally wrong in particular cases. Patience is the only real solution since no single email can present all the assumptions that underlie a particular position. Things will get clearer with time.
In any case, as I said upfront, the main purpose was to start a discussion and try to get a clearer sense of what people think the US is doing in afghanistan and what may or may not be its essential interests in that region. If the conversation continues, we will get there.....

[Rex Brynen]

Premature and very questionable judgement to even suggest such, implying a pro-Taliban and al Qaida bias on the part of the writer of this question in my mind.

Far from being a biased question, its actually a very good one, identifying the policy alternative that rarely gets properly aired (even, I might add, in Ex's excellent week-long AfPak blogfest at Abu Muqawama): can the threat of a resurgent Taliban and al-Qa'ida be contained in other ways than thousands of US and NATO boots on the ground?

Omarali50 identifies one way this might be done: pulling back, supporting local proxies, and throwing some occasional drones/cruise missiles/airpower/SF/covert operations into the fray of what would likely become a full-scale civil war. It is a horrible thing to condemn the Afghan people to, and might generate massive refugee flows anew (that alone possibly destabilizing for Pakistan). However, it is a strategy which kind-of-works in Somalia: the place is a tragic, bloody, and sad morass, but it hasn't proven to be a place from which AQ has been able to build a particularly productive or effective sanctuary in recent years (despite past efforts to do so)

I don't favour the approach myself. It is odd, however, that it receives so little airing in polite company (although I imagine things are a little different in less polite company, or even at "The Company").

Interestingly, the specter of this sort of Plan B is one way to nudge the Pakistanis into more robust action against the Taliban, since they certainly don't want to see Washington to switch to Somalia-like containment on their doorstep.

[omarali50]

I don't favour the approach myself. It is odd, however, that it receives so little airing in polite company (although I imagine things are a little different in less polite company, or even at "The Company").

Interestingly, the specter of this sort of Plan B is one way to nudge the Pakistanis into more robust action against the Taliban, since they certainly don't want to see Washington to switch to Somalia-like containment on their doorstep.

I guess its time for me to add that I dont favor it myself either. Mostly because it would be hell for the Afghans and probably for ordinary Pakistanis and Indians (I am guessing a Pakistani military deprived of its American subsidy would turn around and reactivate the jihadi option against India). But I think its good to know what the options are to get a clearer picture of what we should or should not do. In actual fact, I am modestly optimistic that the US WILL succeed in some recognizable shape or form.

[George L. Singleton]

I guess its time for me to add that I dont favor it myself either. Mostly because it would be hell for the Afghans and probably for ordinary Pakistanis and Indians (I am guessing a Pakistani military deprived of its American subsidy would turn around and reactivate the jihadi option against India). But I think its good to know what the options are to get a clearer picture of what we should or should not do. In actual fact, I am modestly optimistic that the US WILL succeed in some recognizable shape or form.

We certainly hope so!