The US & others working with Pakistan

[Bill Moore]

and what actually happened http://www.brownpundits.com/2012/09/...ved-by-idiots/

(my predictions were not too far off the mark)

Omar, does seem like the terrorists are increasing their activities again, but it still isn't near as bad as it was a few years back. It is accurate to say that Pakistani military will eventually clamp down like the did before after a long delay where they just admire the problem instead of doing something about it? Or are things different now in your view?

Could it be that they think they already won in Afghanistan and are now shifting their efforts to the Pakistan government? If so I suspect (maybe just hope) they're miscalculating.

[omarali50]

Carl, I dont think Pakistan is going anywhere. I think the state is still stronger than any terrorist group. I just regret that they themselves, needlessly and blindly, created most of the problems facing them today. And I regret that in their obsession with India they have prolonged things and delayed things until the rot was worse and harder to clear out. But in spite of all that, I think the state's odds of survival are still in positive territory. I am not as optimistic as I was 2 years ago, but I still find it hard to imagine Pakistan falling apart.
But it will be ugly. And will probably get much worse before it gets better. Not just terrorism but general law and order and everyday politics and infighting and the endless hate-fest with India. I think MANY problems (and not just the terrorist threat) are worse than our army wants to admit (even to themselves) and that many of their assumptions (like things improving once America pulls out) are flawed. But again, even with flawed assumptions and bad ideas, they can still pull through.
Maybe its wishful thinking on my part, but I base this back-handed optimism on the fact that very pathetic states have won out over determined insurgencies and massive internal disorder more often than insurgencies and disorder have defeated even pathetic states (long stalemates and decades of bad governance are another matter).
Bill, I think (based on nothing more than guesswork and reading the news) that the "bad jihadists" may feel that GHQ has sold them out for sure and its do or die time.
btw, there seems to be a feeling of "strategic victory" in GHQ alongside all the doom and gloom. Its hard to figure out why, but all my paknationalist friends seem to think a great victory parade is going to happen rather soon...

[davidbfpo]

From FP's Situation Report: From JIEDDO, good news on the flow of bomb-making materials from Pakistan. In December, Situation Report reported on the frustrations of Lt. Gen. Mike Barbero....Well this week, he issued a statement: things have gotten better.

While I stand by my testimony [in December], in recent weeks I've seen positive developments in discussions with the Fatima Group, the Pakistan-based producers of calcium ammonium nitrate. Fatima confirmed to me in writing that it has suspended sales of [calcium ammonium nitrate] fertilizer products in the border provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, affecting 228 dealers in those areas. I'm encouraged by their actions and remain hopeful this step will have positive and significant near-term impacts with respect to diminishing the IED threat not only to U.S. and coalition forces on the ground in Afghanistan, but to Pakistan's civilians and security forces as well." Fatima has also agreed to create a "reformulated product" that renders calcium ammonium nitrate "more inert and less explosive," Barbero said, and thereby "diminishing its effectiveness as an IED precursor material," calling such a long-term solution a "true scientific breakthrough.

Working with allies and friends clearly takes time!

[davidbfpo]

In the midst of a very long FP article 'The Inside Story of How the White House Let Diplomacy Fail in Afghanistan' by vali Nasr, are a few gems:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...stan?page=full

IN OCTOBER 2010, during a visit to the White House, General Kayani gave Obama a 13-page white paper he had written to explain his views on the outstanding strategic issues between Pakistan and the United States. Kayani 3.0, as the paper was dubbed (it was the third one Pakistanis had given the White House on the subject), could be summarized as: You are not going to win the war, and you are not going to transform Afghanistan. This place has devoured empires before you; it will defy you as well. Stop your grandiose plans, and let's get practical, sit down, and discuss how you will leave and what is an end state we can both live with.

(Then). Kayani's counsel was that if you want to leave, just leave -- we didn't believe you were going to stay anyway -- but don't do any more damage on your way out. This seemed to be a ubiquitous sentiment across the region. No one bought our argument for sending more troops into Afghanistan, and no one was buying our arguments for leaving.

He ends with:

They know the truth: America is leaving Afghanistan to its own fate. America is leaving even as the demons of regional chaos that first beckoned it there are once again rising to threaten its security.

America has not won this war on the battlefield, nor has the country ended it at the negotiating table. America is just washing its hands of this war. We may hope that the Afghan army the United States is building will hold out longer than the one that the Soviet Union built, but even that may not come to pass. Very likely, the Taliban will win Afghanistan again, and this long, costly war will have been for naught.

[carl]

From FP's Situation Report: From JIEDDO, good news on the flow of bomb-making materials from Pakistan. In December, Situation Report reported on the frustrations of Lt. Gen. Mike Barbero....Well this week, he issued a statement: things have gotten better.

Working with allies and friends clearly takes time!

A Pakistani company said they did something and the US military issued a statement that things are well now.

I don't mind us being fools as much as I mind our insistence on bragging about it.

(The "true scientific breakthrough" part is a nice touch. It should put some real pop into a power point presentation.)

[davidbfpo]

A taut critique by Sarah Chayes, which includes:

What this account is missing -- what so many such accounts are missing -- is the humility and intellectual honesty to take a candid look inward, to strive for a nuanced assessment of our shared missteps, in what I, like Nasr, believe will be a grim outcome for Afghanistan, and ultimately for international security.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...stan?page=full

[bourbon]

Breaking Up Is Not Hard to Do - Why the U.S.-Pakistani Alliance Isn't Worth the Trouble, by Husain Haqqani. Foreign Affairs, March/April 2013.

With the United States and Pakistan at a dead end, the two countries need to explore ways to structure a nonallied relationship. They had a taste of this in 2011 and 2012, when Pakistan shut down transit lines in response to a NATO drone strike on the Afghan-Pakistani border that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. But this failed to hurt the U.S. war effort; the United States quickly found that it could rely on other routes into Afghanistan. Doing so was more costly, but the United States' flexibility demonstrated to Islamabad that its help is not as indispensable to Washington as it once assumed. That realization should be at the core of a new relationship. The United States should be unambiguous in defining its interests and then acting on them without worrying excessively about the reaction in Islamabad.

The new coolness between the two countries will eventually provoke a reckoning. The United States will continue to do what it feels it has to do in the region for its own security, such as pressing ahead with drone strikes on terrorist suspects. These will raise hackles in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, where the Pakistani military leadership is based. Pakistani military leaders might make noise about shooting down U.S. drones, but they will think long and hard before actually doing so, in light of the potential escalation of hostilities that could follow. Given its weak hand (which will grow even weaker as U.S. military aid dries up), Pakistan will probably refrain from directly confronting the United States.

A provocative article from Pakistan's former Ambassador to the US. Some context about the author:

Commentary: Geopolitical conundrum, by Arnaud de Borchgrave. UPI.com, Feb. 22, 2013.

[carl]

David and Bourbon:

Those were two quite outstanding articles. Thank you both for highlighting them.