I wrote this comment elsewhere, but it is more relevant here. What do people think?
I would like to drop in here the possibility that Pax Americana may be about to end in that region(perhaps not yet likely, but definitely possible). This will sound weird to people (and there are billions of them) who do not think there was much pax and Americana was wholly bad in any case, but if that happens then our background assumptions may have to change rather drastically. I suspect that the transitional period will be very violent, very confusing and very unpleasant. Any thoughts?
I wrote this on a liberal blog (http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...an-policy.html) and the responses here may be different. I think on this blog, most people will not quibble with "pax Americana" but even here I see that very well informed and intelligent people tend to write as if A can change without a chain reaction of changes from B to Z. For example, I disagree with David's assertion that not much would change in Pakistani politics if there is an alternative route for supplies. I think that if there is an alternative route, Pakistan will either start cooperating more, which would mean that the ISI will stop patronizing Islamist forces and will even end up in confrontation with them, etc. etc. OR Pakistan will not cooperate and the US will be more willing to misbehave and eventually that will lead to the army dismissing the current pro-American civilian regime (weak as it is, it does have authority over some areas of the country) and installing a new civilian facade more suited to confrontation with the US. Either way, the status quo (which involves a very unstable and delicate balance between pro-western forces, pro-chinese and rabidly anti-Indian nationalists, Islamists and local pressure groups) will shift dramatically because it is extremely unstable as it is and cannot withstand an alteration in a big element like US-Pakistan relations.
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