The US & others working with Pakistan

[omarali50]

Saying so in public is not the issue...there is a real disconnect between the aims of the paknationalists and the US...and the US seems relatively clueless about the mindset it is dealing with (meaning I think "paknationalists" understand their American interlocutors better than the average American diplomat understands Pakistan's establishment...in both cases, I am not talking about understanding the people or the society at large).
See, for example: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/09/...lenial-change/

[omarali50]

Raymond Davis 2.0?
It seems that the corpse commanders may be ready to fold (in their own fashion, keeping "all options open" and focused on short term survival): http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/26/comma...ensions-2.html

See also: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...6-9-2011_pg3_4

and: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/09/...-do-%E2%80%93/

[davidbfpo]

I liked this comment by the Pakistani Army spokesman, Maj-Gen Athar Abbas:

Gen Abbas acknowledged that army’s Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence maintained contacts with the Haqqani network, but said that didn’t mean it supported it. (My emphasis) No intelligence agency can afford to shut the last door of contact. Maintaining contact doesn’t mean that you are endorsing or supporting that terrorist organisation.

Link:http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/26/comma...ensions-2.html

Not exactly what I'd say in the midst of a repeated crisis; I am mindful the UK during 'The Troubles' via SIS (MI6) maintained links with the Provisional IRA and the UK government repeatedly denied the government was talking to them.

[omarali50]

"maintaining links" is hardly the issue here. And I assume you agree that it is not the issue here.
What the Pakistani "deep state" wants and what the US (or NATO) want are two different things. Its not about links or occasional contacts in Dubai.
In any case, NATO's problems may be over if and when they leave the region (which they probably should, since they clearly dont even understand their "allies", much less their enemies). Pakistan's problems (and, by extension, India's and Afghanistan's and maybe even China's) will only accelerate.

[omarali50]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...c7K_story.html

Going from bad to worse? It seems that tragedy is turning into farce. Pakistan should do something quickly to help the US before the US loses the war (see below). Pakistan's rational and far-sighted response may now be America's best hope!
Many of my Pakistani friends are happy because they think this is a zero-sum game: what is bad for the US is good for Pakistan. I disagree. First of all, I dont think the US is done yet. Confused, yes. Done? probably not.
But even if we imagine that everything goes downhill for the US from now onwards and they eventually pull out defeated, it is not likely to be a fatal blow (Some Paknationalists imagine a Soviet Union scenario, but their knowledge and analysis are both terribly off in this case). The US, while chastened and shocked (as after Vietnam?) will not be seriously wounded by defeat in Afghanistan; What happens to the economy at home will be far more crucial than what happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan, neither of which have a big role in the economy, and the role they do have is entirely negative.
Pakistan is another matter. I dont think stoppage of US aid is going to be a necessarily fatal problem (severe sanctions are another matter, but maybe China can prevent those?). And the inevitable military coup (perhaps a "hidden one" in which a civilian caretaker regime is installed by the army) may even lead to a temporary improvement in administration in the core region for a while; but this "victory" will not solve deep seated problems in the structure and direction of the state. In fact, it will likely make them worse as the jihadi faction starts looking for a victory dividend. Even in the best case scenario, it will be very tough. In the worst case scenario, we may collapse before the last American takes off from the embassy roof. The risks in case of "victory" are enormous.
Does this mean that someone in Pakistan will in fact sort out the confusion and help the US out just to save itself? While that may appear logical, it does not appear likely. This is a genuine mess. The kind where nobody is sure what will happen next.
A joke from the nineties suddenly appears to be prescient: Nawaz Sharif was portrayed as something of a simpleton, getting by on the advice of his shrewd father (abba ji). Here is the joke:
Nawaz Sharif: Abba ji, the economy is in terrible shape and nothing is working. What can we do now?
Abba ji: Son, there is only one solution. Start a war with America. They will bomb the country and utterly destroy it. Then they will occupy us and launch a Marshall plan and we will be rebuilt with their money. Look how rich Japan and Germany have become after losing a war to America.
Nawaz Sharif: But abba ji, what if we win?

[omarali50]

the above comment mutated into this blog post: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/09/29/what-if-we-win/

[Dayuhan]

Interesting article on the Haqqanis and Waziristan:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...iristan?page=2

And comment on the wider Pak/USA issues:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...kes-on-the-isi

Both above the paywall

[davidbfpo]

As if by magic our occasional correspondent Hamid Husain has supplied a commentary on the current situation, particularly on what stance the Pakistani Army leadership will take. See the attachment (which has been slightly edited).

[omarali50]

Nice job by Hamid Hussain. The bottom line is that "victory" for the ISI will hurt them even worse than "defeat", but they are too dumb to realize this. Kamran Shafi has been telling us for years: "the Rommels and Guderians will take us for the mother of all high jumps". They are incorrigible and incapable of learning. Kiyani sahib is better than average, but even he gets his forecasts from the same "think tanks" that have war-gamed the whole thing, anticipate massive American economic collapse in 2012 (its in the Mayan calendar; I am NOT kidding) and takeover of patron duties by China.
Its sad and tragic.
See this wonderfully apt cartoon and enjoy: http://www.brownpundits.com/wp-conte...4019852_n1.jpg

[davidbfpo]

A passage in an article on logistical and political relationship nearly escaped my eye:

At the same time, Pakistan has been looking to China as a foil for its dependence on the US with a series of high-level meetings during the past week. However, yesterday it emerged that China Kingho Group had pulled out of a $19bn deal in southern Pakistan because of security concerns, according to The Wall Street Journal – suggesting Islamabad may not be able to rely on its giant neighbour as an alternative to the US.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-fallout.html

IIRC there have been posts on the not so enthusiastic Chinese relationship with Pakistan; which IMO weakens Pakistan's policy towards the USA, as China is not even a poor alternative partner.

[Ray]

The Double Mirror
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...071153,00.html

Why We're Stuck with Pakistan
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...071131,00.html



There is a trust deficit.

How much is the 'trust' and how much is the 'deficit'?

There seems to be no 'escape' route or is there?

[omarali50]

Now with more pictures: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-win.html#more

[davidbfpo]

A BBC story, based on a Pakistani MP talking about a briefing to the parliamentary defence committee:

Pakistan's army chief Ashfaq Kayani has warned the US that it will have to think "10 times" before taking any unilateral action in North Waziristan...

(Slightly edited) General Kayani is quoted saying "If someone convinced me that all problems will be solved by taking action in North Waziristan, I'd do it tomorrow...If we need to take action, we will do it on our schedule and according to our capacity."

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15364956

I fully accept this is Pakistani "spin" and may reflect more on Pakistani politics than any prospect of a US military incursion across the Durand Line.

[carl]

It just occurred to me reading Kayani's latest pronouncement, that Pakistan is Oceania from the novel 1984. They actually use Newspeak as the official language.

[Ray]

I was watching an Indian TV channel (Times Now), which had a Pakistani Air Marshal and the head of the Geo TV.

They were very aggressive and in fact the Geo TV head stated that all the terrorist heads when handed over by Pakistan, works for the US Afghanistan 'clique'. He quoted some of the so called terrorist organisations handed over to the US who were carrying out raids inside Pakistan! And these were not being reported in the international or Indian media.

I wonder how far that is true.

[Ray]

This is an earlier debate with a Pakistani diplomatic and a US authority giving their views.

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-US-ult...ow/4384711.cms

[davidbfpo]

I really must study the geography of the lands on either side of the Durand Line, this report in The Guardian puzzles me; it is headlined: 'US troop withdrawal leaves Pakistan vulnerable to attack by insurgents' and sub-titled: 'Taliban exploiting a security vacuum in the wake of American forces departing from eastern Afghanistan'.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...tan-vulnerable

So in one place Pakistan fears a US incursion in North Waziristan and in Kunar & Nuristan the USA has withdrawn, so the Pakistanis are shelling across the border.

[omarali50]

The details are always complicated, but there IS a zoomed out view: Pakistan is trying to ride in both boats and is in serious danger of falling between them. I know I repeat this endlessly, but I think Pakistan needed to choose a long time ago and needs to choose now and if it still does not do so, will have to choose in the future (probably after the Chinese get hit by some random Uighur strike that uses some of the same infrastructure initially constructed for very different purposes). The Islamist militant network is not compatible with other plans (like pipelines, exports, fashion shows and whatnot) that the elite also desires. Whether it was a CIA idea in the first place or whether India pays some of them or whether the CIA itself is playing a double game are details...the bottom line remains the same. Those men in black balaclavas who walk around Miranshah and blow up informants by putting dynamite at their feet are bad news...they are not "strategic assets".
This has not yet sunk in.

[omarali50]

Or rather, it has sunk in, but only as an isolated fact. And there is still some hope that we can "retain some asymmetric capbilities".
Or, its sunk in, but the people in charge have no idea how to sell the story to their audience.
Many layers of confusion.

[omarali50]

Anatol Lieven's book has been discussed before in this thread (and others)...here is a good review by someone who is a little more resistant to the bull#### emanating from well dressed army officers than Lieven Bahadur seems to be: http://www.theindiasite.com/10105/