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Thread: Russo-Ukraine War (Jan-March 2016)

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    Default Russo-Ukraine War (Jan-March 2016)

    A new thread for this theme in 2016, created by a moderator. The current 2015 thread since June 2015 has had 120k views and 3.4k posts. It can be viewed via:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=22315
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-30-2015 at 09:01 PM.
    davidbfpo

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    Militants fired 22 times at Ukr troops over last day w/ 120mm mortars, large caliber machine guns, grenade launchers https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/po...19612258049579

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    For those grey beards still working the field.......
    pic.twitter.com/E8RwSK2Lp1

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    No casualties in last 24 hours among Ukrainian soldiers in ATO https://twitter.com/radiosvoboda/sta...95480691494912

    Civil Blockade activists say not involved in blowing up pylon on power line
    http://www.unian.info/economics/1227...ower-line.html
    pic.twitter.com/sqjRAubhjk

    Exclusive & never-before seen pictures from my trip to #Pisky at the Ukrainian front in #Donbas
    pic.twitter.com/uscmswiTtv

    Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
    What Russia's been doing in Ukraine since you stopped paying attention

    http://theweek.com/articles/587241/w...ying-attention

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    Putin has bullied, invaded, imprisoned, tortured, and killed Ukrainians to try to stop it, but today real EU-Ukraine free trade starts.

    CrimeaBlockade dissociate themselves from power lines damage in Kherson reg. At 00.00 2015 energy contract expired https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...34889093378005

    Vnesheconombank (VEB) financed $8 bln worth of Russian investments into Donbass steel plants in 2010. Great timing.

    Drone-shot video of New Year celebration at Sofiyska and Mykhailivska squares in #Kyiv
    http://www.radiosvoboda.org/media/video/27461364.html
    pic.twitter.com/nsbEnTVQCr
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 12:45 PM.

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    I have been criticizing this President for his sheer lack of a strategy which is amazing for a Harvard graduate....HE has actually been implementing a solid a la Wilson retrenchment program AND selling it or better in his own words...."messaging" that retrenchment to the US civil society ALL the while not putting into place a foreign policy foundation that other nation states can fully understand.

    He completely failed in recognizing the Russian and Iranian non linear warfare coupled to Putin's political warfare three core geo political goals;
    1. damage and discredit EU
    2. damage and discredit NATO
    3. completely disconnect the US from Europe and the entire ME

    It is highly recommended to read this entire article and then sit back and think about it based on the daily reality that is directly opposite of what this President and his NSC is trying to "message".

    http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/thr...ign-policy-wen...

    Garden in September. —Associated Press
    My fellow Think Tank contributor (and sometime co-author) Brian Katulis says that for “the Obama administration, 2015 brought ups and downs in foreign policy.” This is far too rosy an assessment, though it is sober compared with the State Department’s review of its 2015 accomplishments, which included “Winning Fight Against Violent Extremists” and “Bringing Peace, Security to Syria.” The last year has been one of serious strategic setbacks, falling roughly into three categories:

    1. Failure to respond to assertive great-power challengers. In 2015, China intensified its campaign to build and militarize artificial islands in the South China Sea, with the likely goal of strengthening its territorial claim within the “nine-dash line” and limiting other states’ freedom of action in the area. Russia deployed military forces to the Middle East–in direct opposition to U.S.-supported groups–and consolidated its annexation of Crimea while maintaining or deepening support for separatists in Ukraine in defiance of the Minsk cease-fire agreement.

    The U.S. has not mustered an effective response in either case. After years of hand-wringing, the White House authorized a Freedom of Navigation Operation in the South China Sea that may have inadvertently strengthened the rights China claims in the area. As for Ukraine, although the U.S. and its allies maintain their sanctions regime against Russia, they could not eliminate dependencies on Moscow, which might prove debilitating in future conflicts. Meanwhile in Syria, the U.S. concedes that Moscow is meeting its goals so far while insisting it is doomed to fail.

    2. Lapsed focus on outcomes. The Obama administration frequently cites the Iran nuclear deal as a marquee accomplishment. Achieving U.S. objectives through diplomacy would have been laudable, but the nuclear deal was possible precisely because the U.S. laid aside its objectives. Iran made concessions but also largely achieved its strategic aims: retaining its nuclear weapons capability and resisting demands for a broader “strategic shift” in its support for terrorism and regional policies. Iran also received sanctions relief that is broader in practice than on paper, all in exchange for temporary limits on its nuclear fuel-cycle activities.

    Secretary of State John Kerry has said that “diplomacy is the art of the possible.” Yet administration officials fail to comprehend how U.S. action, or inaction, can shape what is possible. This was clear in Afghanistan, where President Barack Obama was forced to face the consequences of prematurely announcing a U.S. withdrawal. It is increasingly clear in Syria, where the White House, despite foreseeing the dangers posed by the conflict, is shifting objectives in response to others’ actions rather than taking the initiative.

    3. Weakened alliances. President Obama frequently contrasts what his administration calls the 19th-century behavior of some states to the rules-based order he prefers. Yet, as President Obama has noted, rules and norms do not enforce themselves; international order is threatened not only by overt challenges but also by others’ failure to defend it. The challenges described above should have been opportunities to cement alliances in the face of common threats: to deepen ties with Japan and India in the face of Chinese expansionism; to unite with Mideast allies against threats from Iran and Syria; and to unite Europe in defiance of Russian actions in Ukraine.

    Instead, these opportunities have largely been missed. U.S. allies in Asia have been alarmed by what they perceive as Washington’s failure to follow through on a promised “pivot” to the region and its failure to back up “red lines” elsewhere. In the Middle East, the Iran deal and U.S. confusion in Syria have strained already weakened ties with Israel and Arab states. A White House effort to assuage the concerns of Gulf Cooperation Council states was both belated and off the mark, focused on expanding U.S. assistance rather than accommodating allies’ concerns over U.S. policy. Weakened alliances mean that U.S. power is diluted and our allies tend to act independently of the United States and of each other in ways that complicate our efforts.

    The list could continue; for example, neglect of the domestic component of foreign policy could shift the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement from a success into a failure thanks to opposition from the president’s own party.

    The Obama record in 2015 suggests that our post-Cold War struggle to determine how best to shepherd and use U.S. power continues; for the overreach of the Iraq war, diffidence has been substituted. The primary challenge in 2016 and onward will be how to deploy the United States’ still-immense strength judiciously, proactively, and multilaterally to resolve conflicts to our advantage and to prevent new ones from emerging.
    Michael Singh is managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 2005 to 2008, he worked on Middle East issues at the National Security Council. He is on Twitter: @MichaelSinghDC.

    Feb 2007 - Australian Prime Minister John Howard warns of the consequences for Iraq & Middle East of an Obama win
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/...128798037.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 02:09 PM.

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    #russiannavy "Sayany" submarine rescue ship arrived in Sevastopol today
    pic.twitter.com/sBD6BnwEde

    Ukraine & Poland will cooperate to develop mortar carrier and howitzer based on T-84 Oplot tank
    pic.twitter.com/oYYy698XGz

    As #Germany took over the presidency of the @OSCE today, will #Steinmeier(@GermanyDiplo) make @OSCE_SMM in East #Ukraine work after sunset?!
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 02:14 PM.

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    UKR Embassy in TR @UKRinTR

    Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update: Moscow To Sue Kiev Over $3B Debt
    http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-ukrain...b-debt-2246408
    And Ukraine to sue Russia over $100B for Crimea

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I have been criticizing this President for his sheer lack of a strategy which is amazing for a Harvard graduate....HE has actually been implementing a solid a la Wilson retrenchment program AND selling it or better in his own words...."messaging" that retrenchment to the US civil society ALL the while not putting into place a foreign policy foundation that other nation states can fully understand.

    He completely failed in recognizing the Russian and Iranian non linear warfare coupled to Putin's political warfare three core geo political goals;
    1. damage and discredit EU
    2. damage and discredit NATO
    3. completely disconnect the US from Europe and the entire ME

    It is highly recommended to read this entire article and then sit back and think about it based on the daily reality that is directly opposite of what this President and his NSC is trying to "message".

    http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/thr...ign-policy-wen...


    Michael Singh is managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 2005 to 2008, he worked on Middle East issues at the National Security Council. He is on Twitter: @MichaelSinghDC.

    Feb 2007 - Australian Prime Minister John Howard warns of the consequences for Iraq & Middle East of an Obama win
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/...128798037.html
    FURTHER Russian evidence to their current actions against NATO...THAT Obama is so intent on ignoring......

    “It is time to correct the mistake by Gorbachev“ #Russia #Baltics #Turkey #Nato
    http://news.rambler.ru/head/32327873

    Putin labels #NATO a security threat.
    http://cnn.it/22ClLWX
    pic.twitter.com/AQeHPLvm8H

    Russia invades Europe in Ukraine, intrudes on NATO waters and airspace with submarines and bombers. Then calls NATO a "threat."
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 05:13 PM.

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    Remind me now, wasn't the electricity from #Russia to #Crimea be done by now? And the bridge half done? Putin lies worse then #NorthKorea

    Lifenews: poll results show that 93% of asked Crimeans refused to get electricity from Kherson
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/1-janua...asked-crimeans

    Russian government will hold a poll in Crimea to decide to get electricity as part of Ukraine or not
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/31-dece...poll-in-crimea

    Militants Used Prohibited Weapons Near Avdiivka, - Staff
    http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/507...vka-staff.html

    No casualties in mil. hostilities among Ukrainian forces over last 24 hours - #АТО Staff

    Since Beginning Of Day Militants Opened Fire 15 Times
    http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/508...-15-times.html

    Russian militants reporting on 1 dead in fighting at Donbass
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/1-janua...ad-in-fighting
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 05:03 PM.

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    Russian info warfare trolls.....

    Kremlin Trolls @KremlinTrolls
    Russian troll Gic Perry's sock ac, setup to harass 2 of our followers, was intended 2b disposable & die. Except it didn't, we saved it all

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    Does return of top Russian war reporter signal an escalation of conflict in east Ukraine?
    http://trib.al/YO4zook
    pic.twitter.com/61Mm4IH3qu

    Militants violated cease-fire 24 times Jan. 1, - ATO press center
    http://24today.net/open/611415
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 07:24 PM.

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    Russia practicing cyber warfare inside their own country.......

    By November, the number of websites being blocked in #Russia reached 1 million, as political engagement grows online
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...2a1_story.html

    Sorry, #Moscow, but the "armed conflict" in #Ukraine is all your doing - no #Russia, no war.
    http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-signs-.../27460849.html
    pic.twitter.com/DKg5qtxOhM

    Life of #Ukraine’s volunteer battalion few kilometers from the strategic #Donetsk airport
    https://youtu.be/BjzrWp9IHNI?list=PL...YtxvMJZobCjqBC …-
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 08:57 PM.

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    News
    8 Ukrainian soldiers got killed and 67 injured, defending the front in Eastern #Ukraine in December
    .
    Situation calmed down recently.

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    Russian info warfare trolls...........

    Kremlin Trolls @KremlinTrolls

    When Tweets get many RT's #KremlinTrolls keep reusing them. Profanity helps to create false appearance of sincerity
    pic.twitter.com/hxoshb6Vur

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    ATO Press center: Militants deployed "free wi-fi" hotspots near frontline, Ukrainian soldiers use it->intercepted.
    pic.twitter.com/VplqcfC2Xu

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    New documentary on Putin's rise from Leningrad thief to bringing KGB & criminal underworld to rule/rob Russia.
    http://www.rferl.mobi/a/27458242.html

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    ATO Press Center advises of 42 violations in the last 24/hrs throughout the #ATO with small arms, heavy machine gun, mortars and grenades

    In #Putin’s new dodgy '‘referendum’ Crimeans asked to reject #Ukrainian electricity
    http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1451702712
    pic.twitter.com/kDG1vguv5j

    Kremlin Trolls @KremlinTrolls
    Which map would you choose? #KremlinTrolls love the one that shows #Crimea & East #Ukraine as part of #Russia.

    pic.twitter.com/5stdS7AF87
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-02-2016 at 06:53 AM.

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    Kremlin-backed militants continue violating ceasefire during #NewYear holidays
    http://uatoday.tv/society/kremlin-ba...ys-565097.html pic.twitter.com/mA7jCOi6Mh

    Russian info warrior trolls..............
    Kremlin Trolls @KremlinTrolls
    KremlinTrolls & honey pots r skilled @ creating word associations &playing mind games. They go even further in DMs
    pic.twitter.com/nRMx24sv8y

    [B]More #vodka on RU TV @ntvru: "#DNR intellligence found #Turkish mercenaries in the vincinity of #Donbas" /B]

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    US social media companies still bow to the demands of Russian info warrior trolls without any fact checking before banning...the have become virtually pa and parcel of the Russian info warfare OR maybe it is the Russian oligarch investments into their companies that speaks volumes for their somewhat non democratic actions they take.........

    #Russian twitter trolls managed to suspended @reggaemortis1. Meanwhile he's online on @Mortis_Banned. Beat-up @support until he's released.



    Mortis (Banned) @Mortis_Banned
    I've been a good citizen reporting all abuse cases. No reply so far from @Support which was quick to ban my account.
    pic.twitter.com/m1g4qi9Ni4

    Case study: #Russia subversively funds NGOs in countries like #Poland.
    https://twitter.com/molodyko/status/639771669456809984
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-02-2016 at 04:02 PM.

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