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  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Russo-Ukraine War (Jan-March 2016)

    A new thread for this theme in 2016, created by a moderator. The current 2015 thread since June 2015 has had 120k views and 3.4k posts. It can be viewed via:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=22315
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-30-2015 at 09:01 PM.
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    Militants fired 22 times at Ukr troops over last day w/ 120mm mortars, large caliber machine guns, grenade launchers https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/po...19612258049579

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    For those grey beards still working the field.......
    pic.twitter.com/E8RwSK2Lp1

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    No casualties in last 24 hours among Ukrainian soldiers in ATO https://twitter.com/radiosvoboda/sta...95480691494912

    Civil Blockade activists say not involved in blowing up pylon on power line
    http://www.unian.info/economics/1227...ower-line.html
    pic.twitter.com/sqjRAubhjk

    Exclusive & never-before seen pictures from my trip to #Pisky at the Ukrainian front in #Donbas
    pic.twitter.com/uscmswiTtv

    Michael Weiss ✔ @michaeldweiss
    What Russia's been doing in Ukraine since you stopped paying attention

    http://theweek.com/articles/587241/w...ying-attention

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    Putin has bullied, invaded, imprisoned, tortured, and killed Ukrainians to try to stop it, but today real EU-Ukraine free trade starts.

    CrimeaBlockade dissociate themselves from power lines damage in Kherson reg. At 00.00 2015 energy contract expired https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...34889093378005

    Vnesheconombank (VEB) financed $8 bln worth of Russian investments into Donbass steel plants in 2010. Great timing.

    Drone-shot video of New Year celebration at Sofiyska and Mykhailivska squares in #Kyiv
    http://www.radiosvoboda.org/media/video/27461364.html
    pic.twitter.com/nsbEnTVQCr
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 12:45 PM.

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    I have been criticizing this President for his sheer lack of a strategy which is amazing for a Harvard graduate....HE has actually been implementing a solid a la Wilson retrenchment program AND selling it or better in his own words...."messaging" that retrenchment to the US civil society ALL the while not putting into place a foreign policy foundation that other nation states can fully understand.

    He completely failed in recognizing the Russian and Iranian non linear warfare coupled to Putin's political warfare three core geo political goals;
    1. damage and discredit EU
    2. damage and discredit NATO
    3. completely disconnect the US from Europe and the entire ME

    It is highly recommended to read this entire article and then sit back and think about it based on the daily reality that is directly opposite of what this President and his NSC is trying to "message".

    http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/thr...ign-policy-wen...

    Garden in September. —Associated Press
    My fellow Think Tank contributor (and sometime co-author) Brian Katulis says that for “the Obama administration, 2015 brought ups and downs in foreign policy.” This is far too rosy an assessment, though it is sober compared with the State Department’s review of its 2015 accomplishments, which included “Winning Fight Against Violent Extremists” and “Bringing Peace, Security to Syria.” The last year has been one of serious strategic setbacks, falling roughly into three categories:

    1. Failure to respond to assertive great-power challengers. In 2015, China intensified its campaign to build and militarize artificial islands in the South China Sea, with the likely goal of strengthening its territorial claim within the “nine-dash line” and limiting other states’ freedom of action in the area. Russia deployed military forces to the Middle East–in direct opposition to U.S.-supported groups–and consolidated its annexation of Crimea while maintaining or deepening support for separatists in Ukraine in defiance of the Minsk cease-fire agreement.

    The U.S. has not mustered an effective response in either case. After years of hand-wringing, the White House authorized a Freedom of Navigation Operation in the South China Sea that may have inadvertently strengthened the rights China claims in the area. As for Ukraine, although the U.S. and its allies maintain their sanctions regime against Russia, they could not eliminate dependencies on Moscow, which might prove debilitating in future conflicts. Meanwhile in Syria, the U.S. concedes that Moscow is meeting its goals so far while insisting it is doomed to fail.

    2. Lapsed focus on outcomes. The Obama administration frequently cites the Iran nuclear deal as a marquee accomplishment. Achieving U.S. objectives through diplomacy would have been laudable, but the nuclear deal was possible precisely because the U.S. laid aside its objectives. Iran made concessions but also largely achieved its strategic aims: retaining its nuclear weapons capability and resisting demands for a broader “strategic shift” in its support for terrorism and regional policies. Iran also received sanctions relief that is broader in practice than on paper, all in exchange for temporary limits on its nuclear fuel-cycle activities.

    Secretary of State John Kerry has said that “diplomacy is the art of the possible.” Yet administration officials fail to comprehend how U.S. action, or inaction, can shape what is possible. This was clear in Afghanistan, where President Barack Obama was forced to face the consequences of prematurely announcing a U.S. withdrawal. It is increasingly clear in Syria, where the White House, despite foreseeing the dangers posed by the conflict, is shifting objectives in response to others’ actions rather than taking the initiative.

    3. Weakened alliances. President Obama frequently contrasts what his administration calls the 19th-century behavior of some states to the rules-based order he prefers. Yet, as President Obama has noted, rules and norms do not enforce themselves; international order is threatened not only by overt challenges but also by others’ failure to defend it. The challenges described above should have been opportunities to cement alliances in the face of common threats: to deepen ties with Japan and India in the face of Chinese expansionism; to unite with Mideast allies against threats from Iran and Syria; and to unite Europe in defiance of Russian actions in Ukraine.

    Instead, these opportunities have largely been missed. U.S. allies in Asia have been alarmed by what they perceive as Washington’s failure to follow through on a promised “pivot” to the region and its failure to back up “red lines” elsewhere. In the Middle East, the Iran deal and U.S. confusion in Syria have strained already weakened ties with Israel and Arab states. A White House effort to assuage the concerns of Gulf Cooperation Council states was both belated and off the mark, focused on expanding U.S. assistance rather than accommodating allies’ concerns over U.S. policy. Weakened alliances mean that U.S. power is diluted and our allies tend to act independently of the United States and of each other in ways that complicate our efforts.

    The list could continue; for example, neglect of the domestic component of foreign policy could shift the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement from a success into a failure thanks to opposition from the president’s own party.

    The Obama record in 2015 suggests that our post-Cold War struggle to determine how best to shepherd and use U.S. power continues; for the overreach of the Iraq war, diffidence has been substituted. The primary challenge in 2016 and onward will be how to deploy the United States’ still-immense strength judiciously, proactively, and multilaterally to resolve conflicts to our advantage and to prevent new ones from emerging.
    Michael Singh is managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 2005 to 2008, he worked on Middle East issues at the National Security Council. He is on Twitter: @MichaelSinghDC.

    Feb 2007 - Australian Prime Minister John Howard warns of the consequences for Iraq & Middle East of an Obama win
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/...128798037.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 02:09 PM.

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    Russian shelling's and ground attacks are getting to the point of open intense warfare and YET the western MSM and all western leaders especially Obama, Merkel and Hollande appear to have not heard about the intense ground attacks.....

    ATO: Militants pushed 152mm arty to front-line and shelling Ukr pos in Yasinuvata & Avdiivka
    pic.twitter.com/k7FzhjT98p
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/31-marc...s-to-frontline

    Avdiivka Promka noisy now, machine guns, AGL.

    Donetsk now - heavy outgoing salvos started.

    19:50 #Makiivka @tov_sobakin [ok.ru]
    "#Cheryomushki hears it fr/ #Yasynuvata dir'n"
    "#Vostochnyi: it's loud"
    "#Burovka listening misc booms

    19:40 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
    #Krasnyi_Pakhar has also heard dull heavy salvos
    #Schetinina: something bangs far off

    19:40 #Makiivka #Gvardeyka @Palchakkk 3 green flares in the area of
    #bypass - #AVK storages

    19:40 #Donetsk @666_mancer [fb] #Machinery plant: A single rolling one to the north

    19:39 #Donetsk #Kirovskyi ds @UKara4en Wow, where are that salvos from?

    19:38 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] #Mariupolska fork: 2 strong salvos

    19:38 #Donetsk #Abakumova @666_mancer [vk] 2 loud booms and 2 softer ones

    19:59 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 quiet so far

    19:45 #Donetsk #Proletarskyi ds @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] it rumbles for 30 minutes so far

    19:02 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] a boom

    Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    19:00 quiet
    19:02 it has once boomed somewhere

    17:38 #Horlivka @ahab9889 firing towards #Shyroka_Balka
    18:49 Booms still go on

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    Mar31 #Zaytseve, aftermath of the morning shelling @ua_ridna_vilna
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZIh...ature=youtu.be
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-31-2016 at 05:22 PM.

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    Russian attacks are picking up the pace now.....will be in the 60-80 attack range today...

    Butovka, #Optyne under heavy fire.

    Yasinuvata checkpoint today.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8zTw3MmImQ
    Something is burning ....

    Hell Zaytseve after shelling by Russian terrorists
    http://sprotyv.info/ru/news/kiev/ter...medium=twitter
    Video
    https://youtu.be/8ZIhZv8D_yQ

    21:28 #Avdiivka @VadyXaXa sounds loud again

    21:28 #Makiivka #Gvardeyka @Palchakkk #Yakovlivka: very heavy salvos - single and double ones

    21:19 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza landings - #Butovka area, smtms #Opytne area, small arms present too,not mortar shells, MSTA or SPG fr/#Makiivka

    21:05 #Makiivka #center @OldHistoric for >1hr we're listening to the battle tow/#Yasynuvata-#Yakovlivka. First lighter then hevier calibres

    21:25 #Makiivka #Kapitalna @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] just now smth has thundered outside

    21:01
    #Yenakijeve hears the ceasefire from #Horlivka-Zaitsevo, #Yasynuvata.

    20:50 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]Now it rumbles at #Kalininskyi. feels like battle just below my windows. Prob, #Yasynyvata #GAI_post again

    Horlivka - battle to north - north-west now, shooting, mortars.

    Horlivka 20:40
    Battle in Zaitsevo area, heavy machine guns, mortars, AGLs.

    20:32 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] "#Mariupol fork: more frq salvos, various calibres" "#Solovki: cannonade is heard fr/city, as AR bursts"

    20:30 #Makiivka @VasyaMakeevskiy one can hear heavy salvos and shooting (MG, AGL?) towards #Spartak and #Yakovlivka-#Mineralne

    20:30 #Donetsk @BylByleva Southwest is heard

    20:28 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 Battle towards #Opytne. Small arms and GL

    20:31 #Donetsk #Kuybyshevskyi @CKOTINYAKA a couple of outs and assault rifles, #Azotny direction, or just echo comes from there

    20:31 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] "#DK21: it rumbles very strongly"
    "#Donskoy: they don't cease" "mil school. Single powerful salvos"

    20:28 #Donetsk @Donetsk_Ukraine it booms in real earnest, the hell

    20:27 #Donetsk @666_mancer [fb] probably #Azotnyi, but not from #Durna_Balka - further distance and further to the east

    20:21 #Donetsk #Schetinina @DoneckiiPatriot Salvos of various intensity go on. 20:20 plus, one loud

    20:20 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] "#Schetinina: it's very loud..." "regional #GAI: frq loud salvos are heard"

    20:20 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] "#Druzhba: to the W/NW heavy weapon, BMP, AGL are heard" "#Zaperevalna listens claps, alas not thunder"

    20:17 #Donetsk @Donetsk_Ukraine strong salvos tow/ the #airport, the #center can hear them well
    @LifeInDonetsk heard even w/windows closed

    20:20 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] "#Druzhba: to the W/NW heavy weapon, BMP, AGL are heard" "#Zaperevalna listens claps, alas not thunder"

    20:15 #Makiivka #Daki @GirkinGirkin [vk?] There has been a close combat towards #Yasynuvata, now larger calibre is heard

    20:21 #Donetsk #Schetinina @DoneckiiPatriot Salvos of various intensity go on. 20:20 plus, one loud

    20:15 #Makiivka #Daki @GirkinGirkin [vk?] There has been a close combat towards #Yasynuvata, now larger calibre is heard
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-31-2016 at 06:42 PM.

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    15:00 #Donetsk @cranovschik Gazel fr/#Panfilova to #Universytetska tow/#airport, w/coffins and wreaths, sad 50yo driver in RU trooper beret

    More Russian mercenary KIAs.....

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    Russian militant with MANPADS in Horlivka
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/31-marc...ds-in-horlivka
    pic.twitter.com/aBVcRlEOgT via @GirkinGirkin

    Russian Shelling's are still ongoing....

    23:27 #Makiivka #Kalinino @PriestEtlau Still firing. Good audibility

    Unusual large amount of reports of shelling from Donetsk area, though many on landing/launches inside Donetsk

    23:25 #Makiivka @VasyaMakeevskiy salvos aside from #Spartak

    Militants' attacks on UAF positions become more intense. Heavy weapons are used. - ATO HQ.
    http://novosti.dn.ua/details/272225

    23:35 #Hnutove-#Talakivka @pesekcot Fire is moved, like tow/#Sartana - can't see behind the hills. What a gunnery, didn't hear it since Aug

    Impression that it's another "provocation show". Launching from inside occupied territories->landings in Makiivka,Yasinuvata, Mineral'ne etc

    23:33 #Mariupol @Shimshen NE. It is heard even behind closed windows
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-31-2016 at 08:58 PM.

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