Syria in 2016 (January-March)

[OUTLAW 09]

An extraordinary new crisis is beginning to unfold in Syria, a country that already has suffered through some of the worst war crimes, humanitarian depredations and refu¬gee flows in recent history.

Russia, Iran and the Assad government are conducting a major offensive aimed at recapturing the city of Aleppo and the opposition-held territory that connects it to the border with Turkey. They have cut one supply route to the city and are close to severing another, trapping opposition forces along with hundreds of thousands of civilians. Tens of thousands have fled to the border, where Turkey is denying them entry, The Washington Post reported.

This campaign is being waged in open defiance of a U.N. Security Council resolution adopted in December, which required the Assad government to provide humanitarian access to areas under siege and demanded an end to the shelling and bombing of civilian areas.

Russia, which voted for the resolution, is indiscriminately bombing civilian targets in the Aleppo area, using banned cluster munitions, according to Human Rights Watch. Iranian commanders are on the ground, directing attacks by Shiite fighters from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan.

In the face of this onslaught, which promises to destroy any chance of an acceptable end to the Syrian war, the Obama administration has been a study in passivity and moral confusion. President Obama is silent. Secretary of State John F. Kerry has been reduced to reading the text of Resolution 2254 aloud, as if that would somehow compel a change in Russian behavior. Mr. Kerry on Tuesday faulted Moscow for “making it much more difficult to be able to come to the table” for the peace talks he has been trying to broker, which were stillborn last week in Geneva.

Other Western officials said Kerry overestimated his ability to bring Moscow around. They said he appeared to believe that since he had achieved what some saw as unachievable by getting a nuclear deal with Iran, he could do the same with Syria.

They noted that the two cases were different. With Iran, Russia wanted a political agreement whereas in Syria it is pushing for a military victory by the Syrian government.

"The Russians are playing cat and mouse with Kerry," a senior European diplomat said.