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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Syria in 2016 (January-March)

    A new thread for this theme, created by a moderator. The current 2015 thread has had 92k views and has 3.8k posts:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21961
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-30-2015 at 09:03 PM.
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    Will pick up this thread tomorrow 1 Jan 2016.....last comment to the 2015 thread was just posted.

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    Happy New Year all, especially to the people of Syria.

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    Good morning everybody in 2016...

    The 'news' collected this morning are those for the last day of 2015, though, and I doubt it's going to be very much different for the rest of this year. Then, sadly, the Russians continued in precisely the same fashion like before (including bombardments of IDP-camps then, Russians never bomb civilians with their super-turbo precise weapons).

    Aleppo (city and Azaz corridor)
    Russians flew a two-wave bombardment of an IDP-camp north of Azaz, killing four. To the luck of refugees there, nearly a dozen of bombs failed to detonate. Three women were killed and several kids lost their limbs...

    Nearby food depot was hit too (guess that bombing this place really helped improve 'combat experience' of involved crews, then 'air defences' must've been 'fierce'):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsfQZrpzO8o

    Curiously, YouTube then removed the Qasyoun TV-channel, deleting thousands of videos from this war too... what is left is a small part of all of these re-loaded on SyrianArchive - which is prompting the question: why are giants in US social media so supportive for Russian crimes against humanity?

    ***************

    Aleppo (south)
    Thuwar ash-Sham TOWing an IRGC MBT (results are 'inconclusive'):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXa0GKHUlUo

    ***************

    Hama/Homs
    A series of bombing attacks hit the Ayoudun village and Talbiseh in RTP.

    BTW, a regime announcement about success in assault on four villages south-east of Hama has revealed that the RTP is much bigger than usually claimed or shown on any kind of maps: namely, it has (or at least it had) a lengthy 'prong' in direction of Hama city, nearly reaching its outskirts (thanks so much to all the 'neutral', though actually pro-regime, map-drawers around the internet).

    Insurgents claimed to have killed 32 Assadist thugs there.

    Map attached below is showing the area in question and what the regime claims to have recovered. Mind: this is anything but 'confirmed'.

    ***************

    Dera'a
    Despite claims by regime fans that Sheikh Mishkin was 'completely liberated', fierce bombardment from the air and by artillery, and deployment of a mass of at least three brigades of IRGC-QF's Hezbollah/Iraq, and although several of insurgent groups have left the town without letting anybody know, between 30 and 40% of Sheikh Mishkin remain in insurgent hands. Yesterday, their RPG-teams were busy hunting down single T-72s around the southern part of the place. At least one was knocked out:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6ac52XBFGQ

    ...and because Sheikh Mishkin was 'captured' by Iranians and Iraqis, this RT propaganda team didn't manage it into the town: that is, they've reached the outskirts then the local IRGC commanders forced them to leave...

    ...while regime-fans claim that all the FSyA units have left the town and 'Jihadists are now in control' (how comes if 'SyAA' has re-captured it?), the FSyA released the names of 29 KIA in Sheikh Mishkin, in the last two days.

    BTW, how 'well aimed' and 'precise' is the bombing by Russian gheroys can be gauged by videos like this one, showing release of dumb bombs from about 2,000m altitude - downwind ( :roll: ):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5NCvJ0-BRI

    ...so the bombs can be better dragged away from course by the wind, I guess... Man, if these are 'Russian professionalists at work'... perhaps I should fly some of Su-34s instead of them...

    Further west, regime launched a diversionary attack on Samdaniya and al-Gharbiya near Qunaitra. Although each village was captured, both were recovered in insurgent counterattacks launched already late in the morning.

    It's snowing in most of central Syria today, so I guess there is not going to be much action.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-01-2016 at 04:43 PM.

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    We are off and running in 2016 with the continuing Russian non linear war in both eastern Ukraine and especially in Syria......with a US President that absolutely does not understand political warfare nor UW and is afraid to employ hard power together with soft power.

    IE----the UNSC has urgently called for the stopping of bombing that is killing deliberately Syrian civilians--BTW the US was for that resolution----and it took a major social media push on the massive killings that are ongoing and still ongoing being deliberately conducted by both the Assad and the Russian AFs THAT finally got at least the DoS to issue a statement and call the Russian FM.

    IT should not have taken social media to push DoS and Obama.

    Obama could have first warned via back channels Putin that he has gone to far and if the killing has not stopped THEN he could have moved the debate into the UNSC and presented the massive amount of video footage and HWR/AI reporting to force a stop---if that did not reign in Putin then he could in fact allow US assets to fly circles over the respective cities being badly bombed forcing the RuAF to restrict their bombings.

    BUT from Obama absolutely nothing.

    We are even seeing his reluctance on further sanctions on the extremely active Iranian ballistic missile tests and further development which are in FULL violation of the UNSC resolutions on their missile development AS well as finally calling out Putin on the clear Russian violations on INF. Obama is even sidestepping a full informing of Congress on the Russian INF violations.

    AND the Russian strikes on civilians just keeps on keeping........

    Who is using #Russian cluster munitions such as RBK-500 in #Syria? #RuAF or #SyAFF which is under Russian control?
    pic.twitter.com/lrAI2gYcsn
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 10:53 AM.

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    Says 24 Assad & Iranian forces were killed in a Russian airstrikes in Jabal Nuba, Latakia last night

    To celebrate the end of 2015 in #Syria, Assad heavy artillery is targeting the border town of al-Yamadiya, home to many of #Latakia’s IDPs

    Reports 20 Assad forces have defected to the opposition in Sheikh Miskin, #Daraa

    Ha, a fire at a Dubai hotel grabs everyone’s attention, come to #Syria & I can show you buildings on fire anywhere you like in the country!

    Turret blown off & landed on tank Sheikh Miskeen
    https://youtu.be/Bd135PWwIlc

    @SyriaCivilDef again recovering children from under the rubble after an Assad rocket hit Zibdin, #Damascus today
    http://youtu.be/Accw5HlN--g

    These 2 children are brother & sister. The brother didn’t make it. Happy New Year.


    FSA Jaish al-Naser using a Fagot ATGM w/ night vision against a regime tank at Zaitan front in S. #Aleppo last night
    http://youtu.be/PWU65zmnojo

    Most of Sheikh Miskin is under rebel control according to reports however as regime withdrew to the eastern outskirts, again very fluid situ
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 11:56 AM.

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    Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti

    How long will #Russia op in #Syria last? @kommersant says stuck while #ISIS still in field, so stuck indefinitely

    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2883419

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    We are off and running in 2016 with the continuing Russian non linear war in both eastern Ukraine and especially in Syria......with a US President that absolutely does not understand political warfare nor UW and is afraid to employ hard power together with soft power.

    IE----the UNSC has urgently called for the stopping of bombing that is killing deliberately Syrian civilians--BTW the US was for that resolution----and it took a major social media push on the massive killings that are ongoing and still ongoing being deliberately conducted by both the Assad and the Russian AFs THAT finally got at least the DoS to issue a statement and call the Russian FM.

    IT should not have taken social media to push DoS and Obama.

    Obama could have first warned via back channels Putin that he has gone to far and if the killing has not stopped THEN he could have moved the debate into the UNSC and presented the massive amount of video footage and HWR/AI reporting to force a stop---if that did not reign in Putin then he could in fact allow US assets to fly circles over the respective cities being badly bombed forcing the RuAF to restrict their bombings.

    BUT from Obama absolutely nothing.

    We are even seeing his reluctance on further sanctions on the extremely active Iranian ballistic missile tests and further development which are in FULL violation of the UNSC resolutions on their missile development AS well as finally calling out Putin on the clear Russian violations on INF. Obama is even sidestepping a full informing of Congress on the Russian INF violations.

    AND the Russian strikes on civilians just keeps on keeping........

    Who is using #Russian cluster munitions such as RBK-500 in #Syria? #RuAF or #SyAFF which is under Russian control?
    pic.twitter.com/lrAI2gYcsn
    Good night world.
    "Happy bomb year".
    Ma3 salaama
    #Syria


    Syrian Arab Red Crescent in besieged Damascus suburbs of Douma and Erbeen held a joint children's party for New Year

    Yet another show of strength by the Obama White House
    Breaking: White House delays imposing new financial sanctions on Iran

    http://www.wsj.com
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 11:48 AM.

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    #SAA shelling grad rockets targeting #Darayya
    #Damascus CS #Syria JAN 1

    Rebels storming #Hmaimyn airbase with grad rockets
    #Latakia #Syria JAN 1

    "Mass celebration" between Rebels targeting at the same time dozens of #SAA positions at #Qardaha #Salnafah #Shahtah #Suqalabiyah air base

    Daraa Rebel heavy artillery shelling #Assad militias- try to break into Shayk Maskin
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7cEie_z5e8

    Snowing at northern #Homs frontlines
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v908Eb7FquI

    "Happy new Year" in #Syria #Damascus- gunfire in the air from both
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XabIyM8gQI

    Pro-#Assad Shiite militias from #Iraq (Harakat al-Nujaba) beheading
    rebel-fighters in southern #Aleppo #Syria
    AND Obama is not complicit in the sectarian fighting now ongoing in Syria with massive Russian support...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-01-2016 at 12:04 PM.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Syria after Aleppo's likely fall: two views

    Two quite different views, Steven Metz (USA) and Natalie Nougayrde (French), on what may happen now - assuming Aleppo falls to the coalition ostensibly led by Bashir Assad.

    Steven starts with:
    Whenever it seems that the war in Syria cant get more tragic and dangerous, it does. That conflict has already created the worst humanitarian disaster of a young century and empowered the barbaric self-declared Islamic State. And it could become worse.
    Link:http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/a...arder-to-avoid

    Natalie starts with:
    If Aleppo falls, Syrias vicious war will take a whole new turn, one with far-reaching consequences not just for the region but for Europe too. The latest government assault on the besieged northern Syrian city, which has caused tens of thousands more people to flee in recent days, is also a defining moment for relations between the west and Russia, whose airforce is playing a key role. The defeat of anti-Assad rebels who have partially controlled the city since 2012 would leave nothing on the ground in Syria but Assads regime and Islamic State. And all hope of a negotiated settlement involving the Syrian opposition will vanish. This has been a longstanding Russian objective it was at the heart of Moscows decision to intervene militarily four months ago.
    Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/05/aleppo-europe-vladimir-putin-russian-military?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-05-2016 at 09:00 PM. Reason: Was a stand-alone thread with 2.8k views until today and merged.
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    Footage
    @SyriaCivilDef hero's last minutes before getting murdered by #Assad air strike
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrQG1dlqrU8

    The White Helmets ‎@SyriaCivilDef
    Dreadful attack in Ghouta today. 32 killed, including one of ours when ambulance hit. Casualties expected to rise

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    Russian Naval and Syrian Express on the move again......

    FLOT'S Buyan-M cls corvette Serpukhov followed Otrakovsky south. Heading to Syria to replace sister ship Zeleny Dol

    Armed with Kalibr SS-N-27 missiles, #ВМФ BSF #ЧФ Buyan-M class Serpukhov is en route to the Eastern Mediterranean

    NOTE...it was a SS27 that blew up a year ago during a military celebration naval parade.....

    Buyan M class reportedly uses carbon-fibre radar cross section.

    Withdrawal continues faster than ever ! Heavily-laden #ВМФ #Бф BF LST Alexander Otrakovsky 031 transits southbound Bosphorus en route to Tartus

    "Reverse Withdrawal" is going on in high pace. A.Otrakovsky seems to be carrying above her 500tons limit, southbound

    Fully loaded #ВМФ Бф BF Minsk transited Bosphorus 15:00GMT;This is the 5th Syrian deployment in2016 for ropucha LST

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    Hasaka (beside Tartus) is the only province where #Assad's MilMi8 can fly low as there are no enemies around

    The biggest #terrorist in #Syria is back in action.
    @SyriaCivilDef copes with his crimes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLePiM_4OrY

    Footage
    Panic in #EastGhouta schools after the aimed #Assad air force campaign got known.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XqP...ature=youtu.be

    The country that threatens everyone to not give MANPADS to rebels in Syria provides then en masse to those in Ukraine

    IgorGirkin
    ‏@GirkinGirkin
    Горловка, 31 мар
    путенски орк из 3 омсбр с пзрк

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    Fagot #ATGM takes out #ISIS Bulldozer in N-Aleppo
    https://youtu.be/5bGfh6utONA

    Syria Turkish artillery targeted #ISIS HQ in Al-Kemaliye village Northern #Aleppo

    Pro-Assad media claim #ISIL planted 100s of IEDs before left Palmyra. Russia sending mine-clearing experts to help.

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    CrowBat....what do you think?

    Regime loyal Mufti Ahmad Hassoun has left #Syria & arrived in #Oman with his entire family

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    And the ever ongoing Russian/Assad/Hezbollah constant victory cries that they are in Palmyra.....

    Syria Artillery rain on Amiriyah suburb of #Palmyra but no regime pics from inside town
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34...89027&z=16&m=b … …
    Palmyra: #Assad militias captured the Castle(again), heaviest fighting in Al-Amiriyah now.

    Palmyra Battle Map: #ISIS is still in control of the City, the Airport & Ancient City

    Palmyra under nonstop artillery shelling by #Assad militias. Heavy street fights with #ISIS since the morning.

    2 hrs ago: Assad media filming from Palmyra citadel hill, showing shelling&fighting for western outskirts.

    Pro-Regime forces are 800 m from Ancient city of #Palmyra. Last #ISIS defense (sand barrier) reached in W. Palmyra

    PalmyraRev1
    Regime's army and foreign militias. Control of the #Palmyra castle and neighborhoods beside them.
    #Syria , Mar 26 , 12:00 AM


    ISIS launches fierce assault on regime and its militia located north and north western #Palmyra to regain what it has lost during last days

    A Violent clashes between #ISIS against the regime's army #SAA. Behind #Palmyra castle.
    #Syria , Mar 25 , 23:00 PM

    Syria Assad forces enter western #Palmyra at Hospital

    Syr army confirms that Gen.Shaba'an Ouja commander of 64th regiment killed in battles to retake #Palmyra from #ISIL

    Assad regime commander admonishing his men for running away from battles in Palmyra & admits 18 killed 32 injured
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-26-2016 at 03:11 PM.

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    Crowbat & Outlaw09,

    Slightly puzzled about the offensive to retake Palymra.

    Approx. ten days ago you both IIRc posted that the desert highway between the regime's strongholds in the south and the offensive towards Homs was cut. I don't recall posts on that highway being secured. Presumably the regime secured the highway (from ISIS) and could attack Palmyra?
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Crowbat & Outlaw09,

    Slightly puzzled about the offensive to retake Palymra.

    Approx. ten days ago you both IIRc posted that the desert highway between the regime's strongholds in the south and the offensive towards Homs was cut. I don't recall posts on that highway being secured. Presumably the regime secured the highway (from ISIS) and could attack Palmyra?
    David...the highway was cut...am assuming it was also held as IS has decided to defend the area not a road....due to the flatness and open desert holding a road is really tough when you have the massive GRAD, artillery hitting you in the open and Russian AF over you.

    IS has a great record at defending fixed positions as that comes down to a urban light infantry fight which takes away the advantage of the CAS and artillery.

    Plus IS has really developed itself into a "mine emplacement group" which has really slowed down the Russian/IRGC/Hezbollah attack force forcing them into the avenues of approach IS wants them to take.

    If there is a lessons learned for the FSA...it has been their tendency to not use mines and IEDs to slow down the attacker.

    There was a comment I forgot to post and need to refind it...indicating that the IS bomb making abilities has progressed massively in the last few years.....

    Even the Russian Spetsnaz is meeting more than their equal right now--IS was able to search out the Russian Spetsnaz JTACs and recon teams that were attempting to find routes into Palmyra.

    Remember the IS combat leadership is well tested from the US Iraq period especially Ramadi and Mosul fighting which tied US forces up in knots for months.

    The Assad attack force is though running into their traditional weakness....high loses and low manpower in order to hold what they capture as shown by the IS retaken positions today.

    IS when it all said and done has a remarkable ability to pull back under fire after a heavy round of fighting which lulls the attacker into thinking they have won...then they get hit have a massive SBIED strike and IS re-attacks....

    It is interesting to see just how IS uses the SVIEDs as their CAS.....

    This fight is similar in nature to the Ukrainian Debaltseve fight where Russia attacked using first the Cossacks who literally took a beating and then Russia sent in a Russian Tank Bde and their Spetsnaz...and the loses was massive for Russian standards.....

    The Russians attempted to encircle Debaltseve and with one blow finish off the UAF....which was able to conduct what is truly rare a fighting retrograde pulling all troops and their heavy equipment out of the pocket leaving the Russians with a destroyed town, heavy loses and no propaganda "victory"...

    Right now the IS light infantry is taking a beating and yet beating the Russian Assad force into the ground as well all without heavy weapons and CAS.

    This will be one pf those battles that needs to be truly analyzed in the coming years....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-26-2016 at 05:15 PM.

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    Angry protesters burn JN checkpoint at Marrat al-Numman entrance y'day & raise #FSA flag.
    https://youtu.be/dvRCwwnb0ug

    This Div13-Nusra conflict is getting out of control and must be settled ASAP before it turns into a deadly inter-rebels war

    The way I see it, Jund al-Aqsa plays a destructive & suspicious role in JN-Div13 conflict in Marrat al-Numan.

    Nusra checkpoint targeted by #ISIL VBIED near Beit Sahem #Dara -

    Syria Hassakeh Daesh controls back several points in…
    https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2...eral-points-in
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-26-2016 at 06:11 PM.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Crowbat & Outlaw09,

    Slightly puzzled about the offensive to retake Palymra.

    Approx. ten days ago you both IIRc posted that the desert highway between the regime's strongholds in the south and the offensive towards Homs was cut. I don't recall posts on that highway being secured. Presumably the regime secured the highway (from ISIS) and could attack Palmyra?
    It was the highway to Aleppo that was cut, back in late February, and then again in early March.

    The road - that is: there are actually two parallel roads there (one old and one new) - between Homs and Palmyra was never 'cut', and I do not recall any of us reporting it was: the area was rather 'threatened' by the Daesh advances in Qaraytan area, and few raids - but 'nothing serious'.

    That said, south of Jubb al-Jarrah, the Daesh is still only 3-4km north of these roads.

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