Update
#ISIS now attacking #Marea itself.
Clashes in its outskirts.
Still no actions from YPG or Assad near #Aleppo.
Of course not.
THIS explains WHY Putin supports the Assad starvation campaign and really has no intentions of ever fulfilling the delivery of the agreed to under CoH humanitarian aid deliveries to eh besieged towns and hard to get to locations.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Russia defends #Assad's starvation and bombing of #Daraya by deflecting to everywhere else: http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/s...ent/id/2140275 …
Situation in Daraya, Syria
In the past few days some officials in the media are actively spinning the story connected to the humanitarian situation in Daraya, a suburb of Damascus besieged by the Syrian government forces. Anything is used for this purpose: interviews with “eyewitnesses” and heartbreaking pictures of children, as well other means of creating an aggressive emotional impact. It is remarkable that this media background is hijacked by the so-called Riyadh opposition group for their tactic of setting down preliminary conditions for intra-Syrian negotiations in Geneva. Some days ago they threatened again that they would not join the above dialogue with the Syrian government representatives until the Daraya blockade is lifted, demanding that the UN should send emergency humanitarian aid there.
This hardline “maximalism” resembles setting forth countless new conditions to push through their agenda, as well as some sort of self-publicity. Apparently, all this is caused by a desire to derail the fulfillment of the ceasefire agreements, to prevent the launching of a steady and effective political process aimed at reinforcing the current truce and ultimately at creating the best conditions for resolving all the humanitarian issues.
Are there humanitarian problems in the area I spoke about? Of course, there are. The question is – where aren’t there such problems in Syria? And how long will it take the international community, including the Syrian opposition, to understand that the humanitarian situation in that country is on the verge of collapse? I would like to say that humanism cannot bear politicising and double standards. In this connection it would be quite reasonable to ask a question why such ardent defenders of the Daraya population, which is indeed suffering, forget about the other hotspots of the tragedy, and completely ignore, for example, the critical situation in the center of Deir ez-Zor Province with over 200,000 residents, or the situation in Foua and Kefraya in the Idlib Province. We would like to remind you that Foua and Kefraya residents have approached the UN Secretary-General asking for the protection of civilians from massive terrorist attacks. Terrorists are already making mine field lanes and digging tunnels in preparation for an imminent attack of local towns. Why do we not hear from the people, who draw attention to the humanitarian situation in some regions and ultimately speculate on human grief and pain, about the sufferings of many thousands of residents in the Kurdish district of Sheikh Maksoud in northern Aleppo? The district from which disturbing reports about the continued shelling and assaults by terrorists are coming? We would like these questions not to remain rhetorical; we would like to get an answer to them.
The logic of settlement is the logic of peace which, unlike the logic of war, is constructive, not destructive. Accordingly, we call on all the interested parties to consolidate efforts to solve specific problems for promoting the comprehensive settlement of the Syrian crisis rather than scrutinize under a magnifying glass an occasional failure in the humanitarian access. We want our call to be heard loud and clear.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 05:44 PM.
Update
#ISIS now attacking #Marea itself.
Clashes in its outskirts.
Still no actions from YPG or Assad near #Aleppo.
Of course not.
Not confirmed potentially Russian disinformation in play as always........
What the heck is this......
#Russia claims to withdraw "main part" of troops from #Syria from tomorrow on.
Markets. Courthouses. Hospitals. It’s a war on everyday life now in Syria
http://cnn.it/21qLUoi
سانا عاجل
@SanaAjel
Iran renews support to Syria in its struggle against terrorism
http://fb.me/3PYianSt2
Amr al-Absi (Abu al-Atheer), released by #Assad, worked in secret with #IS deputy Haji Bakr to form the caliphate.
https://shar.es/1YaCPs
As I reported months ago, Russia now confirms nuke deal permits Iran to build ballistic missiles, despite US claims
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ir...-idUSKCN0WG1NG
AFP news agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Putin orders withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria
"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had telephoned Syrian President Bashar al Assad to inform him of the Russian decision"
Is it April 1st already?
Russia announcement of troops out of Syria. Likely either:
- A complete lie
- Means (some) troops, not air force, now west Syria is secure
The *announcement* Russia is pulling out of Syria also helps U.S. sell GenevaIII as something other than Assad's victory by other means.
If he doesn't mean the aerial component, and if the withdrawal takes months, this won't mean anything
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 06:32 PM.
Assad's brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, was so deeply involved with #IS his agency was held liable by U.S. courts.
http://mme.cm/G1AW00
Zarqawi's IS jihadis funnelled into Iraq, often after months of training, by Assad.
http://amzn.to/24ZYqzC (p 190)
U.S.'s minimal support to Syrian rebel groups does enough to provoke the extremists, not enough to help.
http://bit.ly/1UsQG45
By fully tilting toward Iran, U.S. hampers the fight against IS and allows al-Qaeda space to embed in Syria
http://bit.ly/1UsQG45
A Price of America’s Détente With Iran: Al-Qaeda Gains Ground in Syria
By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 14, 2016
Jabhat an-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, has driven one of America’s oldest allied rebel groups in Syria from its headquarters. Nusra began its assault on Division 13 on Saturday night and by yesterday morning Nusra had looted the rebels’ weapons and Division 13’s leader, Ahmad as-Saoud, was in Turkey. This is the third major such incident, and each time the United States has done nothing to rescue its designated proxies. The U.S.’s rapprochement with the Islamic Republic of Iran has set conditions in Syria that make it easier for al-Qaeda to spread.
The Syrian Revolutionaries’ Front and Harakat Hazm
Overnight October 31/November 1, 2014, just after the U.S. began airstrikes in Syria against the Islamic State (IS), Nusra dismantled the Syrian Revolutionaries’ Front (SRF) in Idlib Province, the stronghold of Nusra’s most powerful and ideological branch, and also home to Division 13.
SRF had been supported by the Central Intelligence Agency, which had, since June 2013, been supporting vetted moderate rebels inside Syria—now totalling some thirty-nine groups and more than 40,000 fighters, whose record of maintaining the weapons supplies they’re given and fealty to the laws of war is—especially in the circumstances—near-unblemished.
The CIA program, however, has been plagued from the beginning by being chronically under-resourced and the U.S. has refused to protect its own assets, whether attacked by the regime, the Russians, al-Qaeda, or IS. The net result was that U.S.-supported groups became a target of extremist groups like Nusra—which the U.S. has for years urged rebels to attack—but the rebels were reliant on an inconsistent supply system and were not actually backed by the U.S. if it came to a confrontation. It was a policy that did enough to provoke the extremists and not enough to strengthen or protect the moderates; it was almost designed to discredit the U.S. as a worthwhile interlocutor and empower the jihadi-Salafists. SRF was a victim of this short-sighted policy.
The reaction was somewhat muted from other rebels because SRF and its leader, Jamal Marouf, had a reputation for banditry. Marouf’s men had looted resources to secure their militia, which did not have sources of finance as reliable as the Salafists. The disorderliness of the SRF was used by the U.S. as a reason for keeping its distance. SRF, unsurprisingly, got no more effective or honest in the absence of U.S. engagement and direction.
At around the same time Nusra was also attacking Harakat Hazm, a secular rebel group composed of 4,000 men, led by defected officers, and the White House’s favourite rebel group.
After SRF was routed, four of the then-sixteen vetted groups were immediately dropped by the U.S., and in December 2014 resources to the remaining twelve were severely cut without warning. Some rebel groups were relying on sixteen bullets per fighter. Hazm lost half of its funding.
In late February 2015, Hazm came under attack again and on March 1 announced it was dissolving itself into the larger, Islamist coalition, al-Jabhat a-Shamiya (The Levant Front). Other parts of Hazm later joined Jaysh al-Thuwar, an Arab battalion attached to various armed coalitions dominated by the Kurdish PKK.
Division 13, al-Qaeda’s Syrian Strategy, and the Ceasefire
The pattern of SRF and Hazm has repeated with Division 13. One of the oldest Free Syrian Army-branded, U.S.-vetted groups, Division 13 has about 2,000 fighters, headquartered in Maarat an-Numan in Idlib, but the group has also fought in Aleppo, notably as part of the recent effort by the rebellion to repel a Russian-backed PKK attack on the Azaz corridor that was the final Aleppine supply-line from Turkey.
Nusra was joined by Jund al-Aqsa, a group set up as an al-Qaeda front that appears now to be (unofficially) pro-IS, in attacking Division 13. At least seven Division 13 soldiers were killed and about forty arrested by Sunday morning. There is a claim the captives were all released by Sunday night.
Nusra has, as part of its strategy to secure itself a long-term base for the restoration of the caliphate and the use of terrorism abroad, taken significant efforts to embed itself in rebel dynamics as a means to shield its jihadi agenda, to foster co-dependency not only with a desperate rebellion fighting virtually alone against between three and five State powers depending on how you calculate it, but among local populations, too.
Despite the pressures for insurgent unity—and simple survival, especially since the Russian intervention—Division 13 was among the groups that had eschewed cooperation with Nusra. The lessons from what has befallen Division 13, namely that it is more dangerous to be a U.S. ally than an enemy, do not favour Western security.
The “cessation of hostilities”—which is really a reduction of hostilities—that took effect on February 27 is little more than a cover for the regime and its Russian and Iranian backers to catch their breath from their recent aggression while continuing to wage their war in a more limited format as they wish. But it has had a significant impact on insurgent dynamics.
Ninety-seven rebel groups signed on to this “ceasefire,” which excluded both Nusra and IS. Since Russia was bombing whatever it wanted by calling them Nusra, it gave Nusra a certain freedom. It also meant that other rebel groups were hindered in mobilizing to respond to violations of the ceasefire. Was it worth incurring Russia’s wrath to respond? What could they do anyway? Would the population under their control turn against them if their action induced Russia to bomb their area?
When it was Nusra, not Russia, that used the ceasefire to attack the rebels the problem of mobilization persisted: Why make yourself a Nusra target? Nusra fight the regime and the U.S. wouldn’t even support you if you took on Nusra. Moreover, the U.S. has all-but sided with the regime in Syria, both de facto in terms of its military action, which only hits IS, Nusra, and some non-transnationalist rebel groups (whether on purpose or not we do not know), and increasingly in the political negotiations.
Nusra is taking a risk for its long-term strategy in this. It is difficult to dissociate Nusra’s behaviour from that of what it calls the khawarij (IS). On Friday, with the reduction in airstrikes, the population and the FSA-style rebels took to the streets again for massive, peaceful anti-regime protests all across Syria. Nusra had tried to shut down the protest in Maarat an-Numan. (Saoud himself has attended these rallies.) During the attacks on Division 13 on Saturday, protesters took the streets in the pitch-black to demand Nusra cease and desist.
Nusra’s hard edge—the real al-Qaeda—has been seen a few times over the last few years, perhaps most notably in July 2014, after IS stormed into Iraq and declared its caliphate, when a leaked recording revealed their plan for an “Islamic Emirate” in Syria. The thinking—as with anointing Taliban leader Mullah Omar as the “counter-caliph“—was that while al-Qaeda’s calls for the caliphate as the end not the beginning of their program, they could not beat IS’s something with nothing. Nusra had been fighting for three years in Syria and held very little territory; a semi-caliphate would allow al-Qaeda to do battle with IS on more firm ideological footing.
For some activists, Nusra’s aggression against Division 13 is basically the return of the Emirate project. Ahmed Alwan, a senior cleric in Maarat an-Numan, said: “It’s going to be one faction after another because Nusra wants to be the paramount force here [i.e. in Idlib].” Another activist put it more bluntly: “This is Raqqa 2,” referring to IS’s takeover in October 2013 of the city that is now its capital, after the rebels had taken it from Assad that April.
The U.S.’s Pro-Iran Tilt is Helping Sunni Jihadists
There is little appetite, with the rebellion already fighting Assad/Iran and IS, to open up a third front against Nusra, especially because Nusra is so effective in fighting the regime, but the concern is there. To untangle Nusra from the rebellion, composed demographically largely of the Sunni Arab population which is needed for the U.S. priority of sustainably defeating IS, would require giving the armed opposition another option: it would have to be more beneficial to be a U.S. ally than to collaborate with Nusra. This would involve the U.S. being committed to the overthrow of the Assad regime. It does not involve the U.S. invading Syria, but having as its operating paradigm the deposition of Assad.
At the present time, U.S. policy effectively cedes Syria to Iran as a sphere of influence and gives Assad a security guarantee. Assad being off-limits was seen with the train-and-equip program, where the Pentagon recruited rebels to the anti-IS fight on condition they stop being rebels—that is to say abandon their fight against the regime.
Continued......
The U.S.’s pro-Iran tilt plays directly into IS’s propaganda, which says there is an American-Iranian conspiracy against the Sunnis. If Sunnis believe IS will be replaced by Iran, they will stick with IS. And the escalated assault on the Syrian population by Russia and Iran since September last year, unhindered by the U.S. which is unwilling to provide even anti-aircraft weapons to CIA-supported rebels that were systematically targeted by Russia, is pushing insurgents toward reliance on Nusra.
Continued......
Put simply, the U.S.’s pro-Iran tilt is alienating potential allies in Syria and beyond, hampering the fight against IS, and allowing al-Qaeda to expand and entrench in Syria long into the future.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 06:27 PM.
Obama has not quarantined the furies of the Mid-East. Instead, he "brought [them] inside the gates."
http://theatln.tc/21ru9Fa
"Both the PYD/YPG and…Nusra…are…Syria-focused affiliates of U.S.-designated transnational terrorist organizations."
http://bit.ly/1QSgch0
Vladimir Putin: Mission accomplished in Syria
Big caveat, the statement mentions withdrawal of "main forces".
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20...ithdrawal.html …
Not a "withdrawal". Statement seems to capitalize on the military (regime gains) & political (CoH) momentum to say quick progress was made?
Assad: we agreed with Putin to decrease the number of Russian airstrikes. via @IkhwanSyria
RIGHT!!!
So did Putin and the Russian/Iranian and Assad militaries defeat Islamic State which is what Putin stated in the UNGA he was going to Syria to in fact do.....Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu to start the withdrawal of forces from Syria starting Tuesday. Russia will however keep a military presence at the port of Tartous and at the Khmeimim airbase.
“I consider the objectives that have been set for the Defense Ministry to be generally accomplished. That is why I order to start withdrawal of the main part of our military group from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic starting from tomorrow,” Putin said on Monday during a meeting with Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
To control the observation of ceasefire agreements in the region, Moscow will keep its Khmeimim airbase in Latakia province and a base at the port of Tartous, Putin said.
At Moscow's initiative, a phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Syria's President Bashar Assad was held on Monday evening, the Kremlin reported.
The two leaders agreed that the actions of Russia's Air Force in Syria have allowed them to "profoundly reverse the situation" in connection to fighting terrorists in the region, having "disorganized militants' infrastructure and inflicted fundamental damage upon them."
Bashar Assad has recognized the “professionalism, courage and heroism” of Russian Army soldiers and officers, who have taken part in the military action, thanking Russia not only for extensive help in the fight against terrorism, but also for providing humanitarian aid and assistance to the Syrian civilian population.
The Syrian leader also stressed its readiness to engage in the political process in Syria as soon as possible, the Kremlin said.
Russia's president also addressed his foreign minister. He had tasked Lavrov with intensifying Russia's participation in the peace process to solve the Syrian crisis, the Kremlin reported.
So Russia defeated Islamic Sate.......?????.
So is this the Putin/Obama declared "Mission Accomplished" statement over Islamic State.....????
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 06:40 PM.
This Russian development by Putin is interesting for a number of reasons.....
1. after six months the cost of fighting in Syria is costly for Russia when their economy is collapsing
2. after six months of ground fighting with a Shia/Iraqi mercenary army, Hezbollah and IRGC...they have suffered major loses overall to gain not much in principle
3. the FSA has been able to largely hold on through the heavy air strikes and ground offensives....
4. BUT more importantly the West ie Obama MUST now negotiate directly with Assad....as Russia is simply moving into a monitoring role PLUS the new opposition group that Russia is setting up as well as the coming elections both for Parliament and President.....
Exactly as they have done in eastern Ukraine......
AND it stalls the entry of Turkey and KSA into Syria.......
If Putin thinks he's "achieved his objectives in Syria" then it's abundantly clear taking out ISIS wasn't among them.
Detail: " a timetable for the withdrawal of the Aerospace Forces’ main air grouping has been agreed." https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/...53103284805632 …
If #Russia does withdraw from #Syria, what happened to originally stated goal of defeating ISIS? Hard to say that ISIS has been beaten.
Putin seems to declare victory, says #Russia to withdraw bulk of its forces from #Syria. Will be interesting to see what in fact leaves
ICYMI yesterday there were several reports that a large number of Russian jets have already left Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, #Syria
If Putin announcement serious, Assad has to give up any hope for conquering all of Syria. Imagine atmosphere on pro-regime social media now
Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-14-2016 at 10:27 PM.
CrowBat....is it possible that the MANPAD shot down of the MiG was a not so subtle warning to the Russians ......????
Can you confirm anything on this comment?
Putin orders withdrawal from Syria after being told of gulf states decision to ship anti-aircraft systems to rebels over west objections
Gulf states started sending in manpads and support teams to Syrian rebels weeks ago
What is interesting is that the video crazy FSA somehow just did not video the actual shot down especially using a MANPAD as if they wanted to protect the launch team......if you noticed all the initial reporting was around the AA smokescreen videos.....and shortly before the use of the MANPAD there was on the net a report of possible North Korean MANPADs in Syria.
Since the release of the Obama Doctrine the KSA was free to do what they wanted to as Obama had basically written them off which would explain why the GCC sent in the MANPADS...Obama has no further influence over them and that Putin was smart enough to see.
THEN if we look back over the last week the KSA FM stated just before the ending of the Northern Thunder exercise he stated they had a plan for the total removal of Assad one way or the other...so were the MANPADs the "other"....?
For #Putin removal of #Assad isn't the red line but Western/Gulf forcing him out is. So #Assad will have to go "voluntarily". It's on.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 08:04 PM.
Breaking: "#Russia able to withdraw all planes within 24 hours from #Syria."
https://twitter.com/lifenews_ru/stat...59112229212161 …
Meanwhile SyAAF IL-76 airlifters [YK-ATA + YK-ATB] very busy lately flying between Iran (Abadan/Tehran) and Damascus
Breaking
Moment when the free Syrian men freed FSA members from jabha alnusra base/prison
http://youtu.be/Sv49hZ8NV-w
http://twitter.com/Jazrawi_Shirqat/s...com/gQf57r5EX8
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 08:15 PM.
We should never forget what the Russian FM says........
Russian Embassy, UK
@RussianEmbassy
Russia’s goal in Syria is not to support Assad against opposition but stop advance of ISIL and help defeat it
Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-14-2016 at 10:28 PM.
Arab Spring Was An Existential Threat To Tyrants So Putin Tried To Bomb Democracy Into Dust
http://bit.ly/1RJQuZs
Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-14-2016 at 10:28 PM.
Crucially: #Russia's intervention in #Syria has battered and weakened the mainstream rebels, allowed IS into Aleppo, strengthened al-Qaeda.
Grant it to Putin: he changed the course of #Syria's war militarily + pushed US (even) further toward a political accommodation w Assad/Iran
Carl Bildt
✔ @carlbildt Moscow abuzz tonight with theories on Syria partial withdrawal. One: economy has made deal with Saudi over Syria and oil prices necessary.
Carl Bildt
✔ @carlbildt Russian partial Syria withdrawal said to be “coordinated” with Damascus. For certain. Brotherhood, love, understanding and harmony.
Carl Bildt @carlbildt
Russia has 1 squadron modern and 1 sq less modern fighter bombers in Syria. And then 1 sq air defence fighters. Plus support & protection.
And roughly 1.5 Army Brigades on the ground with AD.....plus GRU/Spetsnaz.....
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-14-2016 at 08:43 PM.
From ISW via the BBC and curiously the broken Assad supply line to Aleppo is shown as still controlled:
davidbfpo
Soleimani speaks
Hat tip to Scott Lucas on:http://eaworldview.com/2016/03/iran-...ary-campaigns/
Which links to a very short Press TV clip of Soleimani speaking:http://presstv.com/Detail/2016/03/13...nding-Muslims/
davidbfpo
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