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Thread: Syria in 2016 (January-March)

  1. #2061
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    Russian FM is evidently planning for the failure of their own plan....and use the blame..."it ain't us...it is them....those mean and evil jihadi outsiders"....

    MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
    #Lavrov: The cessation of hostilities agreement will succeed if external actors are able to put the Syrians’ interests before their own

  2. #2062
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Makes no sense to me either unless they actually missed a linkup opportunity an are simply hoping the RuAF will ignore them and go after the FSA during the so called CoH....which it seems they will actually do using the JaN as their excuse but JaN is literally sitting in no mans land so to speak.
    Well, it's hard to imagine the JAN 'giving up just like that'.

    I mean: they've been working for years to 'embed' themselves within Syrian insurgency, to enflamme sectarianism etc. They've never withdrawn from any place without experiencing a clear-cut defeat.

    But now, they're going away - and then see the scope of their withdrawal. They're out of Idlib (city) and 19 other towns in the area. Out of Ma'arat Misrin, Jabal az-Zawiya, al-Bara, Sarmada etc. They've packed their stuff and drove away. That's it.

    Ahrar, FSyA and JAS took over.

    And that's not all: some of insurgent groups are now starting to distance even from Ahrar. Liwa al-Haq and Liwa al-Fateh have both officially distanced themselves, i.e. announced their split, and there are rumours that 'many more might follow'.

    It's little surprising the HNC is 'confidently' announcing that 97 groups are accepting the cease-fire.

    Only FSyA-related exception is Southern Front. They insist on Darayya being included in the cease-fire, and threat: 'no cease-fire if single bullet is fired on Darayya'.

  3. #2063
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Well, it's hard to imagine the JAN 'giving up just like that'.

    I mean: they've been working for years to 'embed' themselves within Syrian insurgency, to enflamme sectarianism etc. They've never withdrawn from any place without experiencing a clear-cut defeat.

    But now, they're going away - and then see the scope of their withdrawal. They're out of Idlib (city) and 19 other towns in the area. Out of Ma'arat Misrin, Jabal az-Zawiya, al-Bara, Sarmada etc. They've packed their stuff and drove away. That's it.

    Ahrar, FSyA and JAS took over.

    And that's not all: some of insurgent groups are now starting to distance even from Ahrar. Liwa al-Haq and Liwa al-Fateh have both officially distanced themselves, i.e. announced their split, and there are rumours that 'many more might follow'.

    It's little surprising the HNC is 'confidently' announcing that 97 groups are accepting the cease-fire.

    Only FSyA-related exception is Southern Front. They insist on Darayya being included in the cease-fire, and threat: 'no cease-fire if single bullet is fired on Darayya'.
    There are two old sayings....

    1. discretion is the better part of valor
    2. you live to fight another day

    Even a jihadist knows the game......BUT I am betting that their propaganda messaging will be selling this as...."we pulled back to protect the Syrian civilian population" who would have ever thought AQ would be out defending "civilians" but it appears they are.....

    Also I believe they are anticipating the CoH will fail as it is based on the six small areas that the MoD announced they will not bomb....thus protecting largely their own fighting force while FSA takes the hits and faces the Iranian shia mercenary army and the YPG which have not stopped fighting as of yet....and will not from all indicators coming from IRGC comments out of Tehran....

    Appears also the YPG have received assistance out of the Kurdish areas in some of their attacks today and YPG has not said if they will adhere to the CoH..

    Remember Assad mentioned something that was over looked...he views the CoH as a complete stop of all the outside supporters and Lavrov keeps mentioning them as well so at anytime they can turn on the fighting and state the outsiders did no stop their support...so we are fighting again.

    The key will be to see if the Iranian led shia mercenary army and the YPG swing away from FSA and now directly attack IS......if they do not then the CoH is dead on arrival IMHO.....

    Southern Front will get their area at the last minute as Russia urgently needs to show that the CoH is working and there is truly no IS/Jan within 100 kms .......ONLY Assad's palace kms away.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 03:25 PM.

  4. #2064
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    Another Syrian Regime fighter arrested for war crimes......from today

    Stockholm (AFP) - A Syrian asylum-seeker appeared in court in Sweden Thursday accused of war crimes, with photographs on the Internet forming part of the evidence against him, a prosecutor said.

    Mohamad Abdullah, 31, who arrived in Sweden in July 2015, admitted to being a member of the regime in his home country, but not a fighter.

    The case against Abdullah, who was arrested on Tuesday, was based on photographs and other information that appeared on social media, Reena Devgun, a prosecutor with the Swedish International Public Prosecution Office, told AFP after the closed-door hearing.

    She would not elaborate on the alleged crime but said it was believed to have been committed between March 2012 and July 2015.

    Abdullah, who has not yet been formally charged, was remanded in custody by the Stockholm District Court.

    Around 163,000 asylum-seekers arrived in Sweden last year, part of the huge wave of migrants flooding into Europe, many fleeing war in Syria.

    In December, Hassan al-Mandlawi and Al-Amin Sultan, both Swedish nationals, were sentenced to life in prison after graphic videos showed them taking part in the killing of two men in the northern city of Aleppo which has been ravaged by more than four-years of war in Syria.

  5. #2065
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    There are two old sayings....

    1. discretion is the better part of valor
    2. you live to fight another day

    Even a jihadist knows the game......BUT I am betting that their propaganda messaging will be selling this as...."we pulled back to protect the Syrian civilian population" who would have ever thought AQ would be out defending "civilians" but it appears they are.....

    Also I believe they are anticipating the CoH will fail as it is based on the six small areas that the MoD announced they will not bomb....thus protecting largely their own fighting force while FSA takes the hits and faces the Iranian shia mercenary army and the YPG which have not stopped fighting as of yet....and will not from all indicators coming from IRGC comments out of Tehran....

    Appears also the YPG have received assistance out of the Kurdish areas in some of their attacks today and YPG has not said if they will adhere to the CoH..

    Remember Assad mentioned something that was over looked...he views the CoH as a complete stop of all the outside supporters and Lavrov keeps mentioning them as well so at anytime they can turn on the fighting and state the outsiders did no stop their support...so we are fighting again.

    The key will be to see if the Iranian led shia mercenary army and the YPG swing away from FSA and now directly attack IS......if they do not then the CoH is dead on arrival IMHO.....

    Southern Front will get their area at the last minute as Russia urgently needs to show that the CoH is working and there is truly no IS/Jan within 100 kms .......ONLY Assad's palace kms away.
    IRGC truly wants a sectarian war.......

    Chanting "Aleppo on fire... Dawn of Mehdi nearing", Like #ISis, #Iraq Shi'i militias believe in #Aleppo apocalypse

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    In new audio msg, #Nusra leader says rejects #ceasefire, says it will "terminate" #Syria revolution

    In new audio message, #Nusra Front leader #Joulani says "real" negotiations are carried out on the battlefield

    In new audio msg, #Nusra leader says "Fighters of Islam" will "conquer"

    In new msg, #Nusra leader says #RuAF strikes allowed partial "success" of #DeMistura plan

    In new msg, #Nusra leader warns implementation of #DeMistura plan means 1000s would have died "in vain"

    in new msg, #Nusra leader says #SyriaCeasefire will lead to political solution, "survival" of #Assad security apparatus

    Which is not far from the truth..it will remain in place as will Assad until 2020 per the Russians and Assad's onw interview...

  7. #2067
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    FSA's #Zinki group claim pro-regime #Afghan militias attack sprang from #YPG/#SDG areas in W. #Aleppo ctryside

    Unconfirmed reports RuAF helis spotted flying low near Hasraiya north #Hama possibly trying to drop infantry.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...13&m=b&search=

    Syria Rebels shelling #SAA/#PKK in NW #Aleppo with M-46 gun
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wePUrNdz4sI

  8. #2068
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    In new audio msg, #Nusra leader says rejects #ceasefire, says it will "terminate" #Syria revolution

    In new audio message, #Nusra Front leader #Joulani says "real" negotiations are carried out on the battlefield

    In new audio msg, #Nusra leader says "Fighters of Islam" will "conquer"

    In new msg, #Nusra leader says #RuAF strikes allowed partial "success" of #DeMistura plan

    In new msg, #Nusra leader warns implementation of #DeMistura plan means 1000s would have died "in vain"

    in new msg, #Nusra leader says #SyriaCeasefire will lead to political solution, "survival" of #Assad security apparatus

    Which is not far from the truth..it will remain in place as will Assad until 2020 per the Russians and Assad's onw interview...
    CrowBat...this is the telling passage of his message....if you understand Sunni thinking and the Salaifist view of the Koran...quite telling as he is calling out for the global Sunni war on the Shia.....noticed the commenter Hassan picked up on this as he is quite knowledgeable about IS and Syrian jihadi groups....

    Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan

    Al-Nusra's leader: this was not a revolution of the hungry; it was a dignity revolution, it's an Umma's jihad.

    BTW many inside the Saudi decision making process think the same thing...it will get dicey in the coming days if the Russian maintain their heavy air strikes...

  9. #2069
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    News
    56 Russian and Assad air strikes hit #EastGhouta so far today, a sharp escalation
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sICM8kek98

    Michael Weiss ‏@michaeldweiss
    Very sensitively telling Ankara to xxxxx off, yes. US ‘very sensitive’ to Turkey’s YPG concerns - AMERICAS
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Def...&NewsCatID=358

    The United States is “very sensitive” to Turkey’s concerns regarding the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the military arm of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), America’s top diplomat said Feb. 25.

    U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told lawmakers the U.S. had been talking “considerably” with Turkey regarding the dispute the two countries have about the YPG in northern Syria.

    “We need to respect Turkey’s concerns, and we will, we have, we believe,” Kerry said.

    “Going forward is very important that there not be a different problem created by the short-term solution of working with the Kurds, and then that creates a longer-term challenge for all of us in the region,” he said. “So we’re working very, very carefully.”

    An ongoing rift between Turkey and the U.S. has emerged over the different designation of the PYD and YPG. While Turkey says the two groups are offshoots of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and thus are terrorist organizations, the U.S. designates the PKK as a terrorist organization but sees the PYD and YPG as a reliable partner in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

    Citing the recapture of the city of Kobane in northern Syria by Kurdish forces, Kerry said local ground forces were needed in order to fight ISIL.

    “There are different Kurds because some are more prepared and more comfortable working with Turkey than others are, and those divisions are very complicated and need to be managed carefully,” he said.

    “We are talking with the Turks right now about how to proceed in ways that do not cross important lines for them and that respect the sensitivities of the region and I’m confident we will be able to do that.”

    Since Feb. 13, Turkish military has been shelling northern Syria intermittently in retaliation to artillery fire from PYD forces based around Azez, close to the border with Turkey.

    Kerry also said the U.S. opposes the recently proposed sale of Russian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets to Iran.

    “There’s a committee and it’s in approval in the committee, but we would not approve it,” he said, referring to the U.N. Security Council.

    The Russian twin-engine multi-role jet is comparable to the American F-15E bomber, which are all-weather fighters with a “proven design that is undefeated in air-to-air combat,” according to Boeing.

    February/26/2016
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 03:46 PM.

  10. #2070
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    CrowBat....so a Russian drone was evidently over Turkish territory today and has been a number of times before......so was it directing artillery and or rocket fire into Turkey?????

    Incidentally, couple of days ago @mod_russia showed a close up of Turkish artillery fire
    https://youtu.be/MaYydEjdSzs?t=317

    Doubt seriously the Russians "flew strictly along the Syrian border" and did not tip toe across as they always do in eastern Ukraine when they fly out of Russia to inside UAF controlled areas.

  11. #2071
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    This tends to fit here.....ie Russia and jihadists..as Chechens are fighting against Assad/Putin in Syria ..
    .
    NorthCaucasus Caucus @NCaucasusCaucus
    Video of massive fight between GRU and locals in village of Borzoi, Chechnya

    https://twitter.com/ridusnews/status/703234465766572032

  12. #2072
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    For those that do not think there is great similarities between the Russian military tactics in eastern Ukraine and in Syria think again......

    Russian deliberately delayed seven days after delaying the first seven days in order to attempt the surrounding and overrunning of Aleppo...basically a pocket and Russian tactics love cutting off pockets.

    In Debaltseve controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and considered to be Ukrainian it was also in a "pocket". Putin in the Minsk 2 talks demanded from Hollande and Merkel that Debaltseve be given to his mercenaries and they refused to.

    Russian then attacked for a solid six days Debaltseve with actual Russian military units including an Far Eastern Russian armored brigade and GRU Spetsnaz units...taking for the Russians relatively heavy loses. And really heavy loses for their Cossack mercenaries.

    Putin during a press conference in Norway right after Minsk 2 derided the UAF for being "captured by truck drivers and miners"....but surprisingly the UAF held out for six days and then to the total surprise of the Russian army pulled off a somewhat organized fighting retrograde and extracted 2.5K troops and their entire heavy weapons and then went back in again to pull out two units that had been surrounded and could not come out the first time....

    This battle was critical as it blunted the Russian planned general offensive to clearly take the Ukrainian major city of Kharkov critical to establishing what Putin was then calling the "New Russia".

    Secondarily it established the fact that the rag tag UAF at that time could in fact fight toe to toe with a more heavily armed Russian force.

    This was first released in Ukrainian but is now in EN subtitles....WELL worth watching.

    "Debaltseve" film about fearless Ukrainian heroes now with the English subtitles
    http://youtu.be/SIzED67nk-E

    BTW...Debaltseve was never really fully covered by US MSM and Obama/Kerry basically during this heavy fighting period remained totally silent much as they have been in the Aleppo heavy bombings by the Russians.....STRANGELY similar to Debaltseve.....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 06:27 PM.

  13. #2073
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    Hospital loaded with victims of #RUSSIA airstrikes on #Daraa city..
    #Syria FEB 26


    BREAKING
    Seconds aftermath #RUSSIA airstrikes on #Darat_Ezza, killing dozens of civlians
    #ALeppo cs #Syria FEB 26

  14. #2074
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    CIT (en) @CITeam_en

    Here's why Russia will not adhere to the Syria ceasefire (as told by @mod_russia's spox):

    https://citeam.org/russian-military-...ria-ceasefire/
    pic.twitter.com/Uw9pNBAzPs


    CIT (en) @CITeam_en
    Our team has thoroughly analyzed the Ru MoD's briefing on the upcoming ceasefire
    ]https://citeam.org/russian-military-officials-prove-russia-will-not-adhere-to-the-syria-ceasefire/ …
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 07:17 PM.

  15. #2075
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    Key Hizbullah Commander Killed in Syria's Aleppo #Lebanon
    http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/203226

    Hezbollah: 'Lebanon will not be a Saudi emirate'
    http://read.bi/1Tc8K3L
    pic.twitter.com/V4JczPSvQW

    Also in #Aleppo and despite the semi-siege of the city, arms to the #FSA keep flowing.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXagQWUGYSc

    Footage
    The #FSA, fighting #YPG /#SDF forces in #AynDaqnah with multiple fresh weapons.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UBw1IDO4wk

  16. #2076
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    CrowBat......headsup...one for your expertise.......

    BREAKING
    Remains of an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile, fired from a Turkish F-16 towards and invading object in #Hatay.
    https://twitter.com/ebuhafsturk/stat...53774580719616

    Sorry photo removed...cannot confirm....

    Have you heard today of any AIM120 being fired???

  17. #2077
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BREAKING
    Remains of an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile, fired from a Turkish F-16 towards and invading object in #Hatay.
    https://twitter.com/ebuhafsturk/stat...53774580719616

    Sorry photo removed...cannot confirm....
    ...was in the process of downloading that photo when that account was suspended by Twitter...

    Anyway: 'complete silence' in Turkey.

  18. #2078
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    ...was in the process of downloading that photo when that account was suspended by Twitter...

    Anyway: 'complete silence' in Turkey.
    CrowBat....seeing how Twitter does not suspend an account simply because the end user violated terms of service...there had to be a formal request made to Twitter support and AC parts does not reach that level to close the account and knowing how strict the Turks are right now with anything to do with the social media side I would say the Turkish government removed that account thus we can safely assume the AIM120 was indeed fired.

    So from just social media comments....we have the following.......

    1. something was fired and it appears to have been a missile or rocket....two of them based on locally reported explosions

    2. then we have a locally reported report of heavy smoke right after a very loud explosion which came after the two missile strikes

    AND we have...

    3. numerous Turkish eye witnesses in the area stating an unusually high number of AC flying in and around the area

    4. and a single by social media comments identified Russian aircraft flying away from the scene trailing heavy smoke which the poster identified as a hit Russian AC but initially discounted it as unconfirmed by anyone else

    So if it was say a Russian UAV....they have nothing of the size that could have generated a very large explosion and heavy smoke when they go down.

    So was a Turkish supply vehicle of some sort hit in the area by Russian single lurking ground strike aircraft who definitely knew they were across the border which would explain the two missile impacts and then a loud explosion and black smoke as black smoke usually indicates vehicle and fuel on fire or a downed AC.

    Then the Russian strike aircraft was fired on and hit but only damaged which would explain the single photo some trailing smoke from the engine area...which again is usually where the AIM hits......and ties into the AIM parts seen on the ground and photo'd.

    One does not usually fire an AIM against a UAV...simply to much overkill an not enough target for the AIM to acquire. Jet create turbulence if flying close enough is all that is needed to down the UAV.

    And the utter silence is both the Turks and Russians urgently wanting to play it down.....one from the Turkish side to not start a war and the Russians so they cannot be openly accused of crossing into NATO air space just before their so called COH plan goes into effect...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-27-2016 at 06:24 AM.

  19. #2079
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    Well it did not take the Russian long to violate their own agreements......

    First reported breach of the #ceasefire, Assad army & militias tried to advance to Ayn al-Hawr vlge in Akrad Mount 2 hours after midnight.


    Local activists in Talbisa #Homs reported 14 airstrike conducted by 3 #RuAF warplanes 2 hours before the ceasefire.
    https://youtu.be/49xFaDikEng

    Reportedly sr. #FSA leader Akram Kojak killed in the clashes.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...15&m=b&search=

    Video of one of the jets responsible for the massacres in #Homs today ...
    A #Russian Su-34
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLF6RHW9NE4

    Childen again wounded and or killed by Russian air strikes...BUT WAIT...Russian MoD states they are not bombing civilians...just terrorists aged 2 thru 5.......

    News
    Several dead & wounded during #Russian air strikes in the last minutes "before the ceasefire" in #Talbiseh.


    Massive devastation caused by Russian airstrikes in Douma #Damascus few hours before the ceasefire implemented.

    Reports Assad army handed over Eras village north #Aleppo to #YPG Kurdish militia and linked group Jaysh al-Thuwar.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...b&search=ahras
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-27-2016 at 07:12 AM.

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    Does Kerry ever notice his own hypocrisy .......????? He is worried about IS BUT ignores Assad who is in the UN terms a "war criminal" and based on the number of killed Syrians ranks definitely in the genocide corner especially for his ethnic cleansing of Sunni's and his use of chemical weapons and barrel bombs on civilians..........BUT....Kerry seems to have missed that part......

    Kerry weighs ‘genocide’ label for Islamic State

    https://www.yahoo.com/politics/kerry...-sh&soc_trk=tw

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