Syria in 2016 (January-March)

[CrowBat]

CrowBat....seeing how Twitter does not suspend an account simply because the end user violated terms of service...there had to be a formal request made to Twitter support and AC parts does not reach that level to close the account and knowing how strict the Turks are right now with anything to do with the social media side I would say the Turkish government removed that account thus we can safely assume the AIM120 was indeed fired.

So from just social media comments....we have the following.......

1. something was fired and it appears to have been a missile or rocket....two of them based on locally reported explosions

2. then we have a locally reported report of heavy smoke right after a very loud explosion which came after the two missile strikes

AND we have...

3. numerous Turkish eye witnesses in the area stating an unusually high number of AC flying in and around the area

4. and a single by social media comments identified Russian aircraft flying away from the scene trailing heavy smoke which the poster identified as a hit Russian AC but initially discounted it as unconfirmed by anyone else

So if it was say a Russian UAV....they have nothing of the size that could have generated a very large explosion and heavy smoke when they go down.

So was a Turkish supply vehicle of some sort hit in the area by Russian single lurking ground strike aircraft who definitely knew they were across the border which would explain the two missile impacts and then a loud explosion and black smoke as black smoke usually indicates vehicle and fuel on fire or a downed AC.

Then the Russian strike aircraft was fired on and hit but only damaged which would explain the single photo some trailing smoke from the engine area...which again is usually where the AIM hits......and ties into the AIM parts seen on the ground and photo'd.

One does not usually fire an AIM against a UAV...simply to much overkill an not enough target for the AIM to acquire. Jet create turbulence if flying close enough is all that is needed to down the UAV.

And the utter silence is both the Turks and Russians urgently wanting to play it down.....one from the Turkish side to not start a war and the Russians so they cannot be openly accused of crossing into NATO air space just before their so called COH plan goes into effect...

Good reconstruction, thanks.

And here 'corpus delicat... erm... delicti'...

Inscription says that's the WCU-28/B - the guidance section of an AIM-120C.

[OUTLAW 09]

Does Kerry ever notice his own hypocrisy .......????? He is worried about IS BUT ignores Assad who is in the UN terms a "war criminal" and based on the number of killed Syrians ranks definitely in the genocide corner especially for his ethnic cleansing of Sunni's and his use of chemical weapons and barrel bombs on civilians..........BUT....Kerry seems to have missed that part......

Kerry weighs ‘genocide’ label for Islamic State
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/kerry...-sh&soc_trk=tw …

Notice......Kerry never talks about this even in US TV or for that matter in front of Congress.....

Nusra Golani: truce will redraw the borders once again. Sunnis will be a minority after millions forced to leave; thousands killed

[OUTLAW 09]

Drone flight monitor rebel artillery attack on #Aleppo's officer club
https://sendvid.com/47u36h1t

Am assuming these field reports came in before the midnight CoH

Regime still shelling Talbiseh in northern #Homs & Yadodeh in southern #Daraa tonight

Assad's tanks destroy buildings at the outskirts of Daraya. #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0jIK4Bc1g …

Artillery shelling on Bdama in #Latakia mountains now
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...08878&z=14&m=b …
Airstrikes & rocket shelling hit Kafr Zita city in northern #Hama now

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports coming in after the CoH went into so called effect.......

ISIS has launched a raid on Tel Abyad, beginning with a suicide car bomb. Clashes now with #YPG/#SDF.

No doubt, fighting has dramatically reduced in #Syria tonight but incidents reported in:
- Deraa
- Talbiseh
- Al-Marj
- KafrZeita
- Al-Hour

BUT WAIT Russian MoD stated they do not air strike hospitals...must have been that evil USAF again......
With less than 1hr left until #Syria’s ceasefire begins, a #Russia airstrike just hit the Al-Kinanah Hospital in Darat Izza, #Aleppo.

00:05 - Activists are reporting shelling and heavy machine gun fire ongoing in areas of N. #Aleppo, outside Deraa, and in #Darayya.

00:10 - Activists now reporting that regime mortar fire now hitting Talbiseh in #Homs & also Jebel al-Tafahiya in #Latakia.

Daraa al Balad under fire as well (Mortar and rocket fire at 00:10).

00:20: Activists claim pro-regime ground forces engaged in assault on Sheikh Aqil in Rif #Aleppo firing guns & jets heard overhead.

00:25: Activists claim airstrike or large rocket just struck Al-Marj area outside #Damascus. New reports of gunfire in East Ghouta also.

00:45 - On my count, it seems that regime forces stand accused of 9+ ceasefire violations, 3+ of which look certain cases.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports coming in after the CoH went into so called effect.......

ISIS has launched a raid on Tel Abyad, beginning with a suicide car bomb. Clashes now with #YPG/#SDF.

No doubt, fighting has dramatically reduced in #Syria tonight but incidents reported in:
- Deraa
- Talbiseh
- Al-Marj
- KafrZeita
- Al-Hour

BUT WAIT Russian MoD stated they do not air strike hospitals...must have been that evil USAF again......
With less than 1hr left until #Syria’s ceasefire begins, a #Russia airstrike just hit the Al-Kinanah Hospital in Darat Izza, #Aleppo.

00:05 - Activists are reporting shelling and heavy machine gun fire ongoing in areas of N. #Aleppo, outside Deraa, and in #Darayya.

00:10 - Activists now reporting that regime mortar fire now hitting Talbiseh in #Homs & also Jebel al-Tafahiya in #Latakia.

Daraa al Balad under fire as well (Mortar and rocket fire at 00:10).

00:20: Activists claim pro-regime ground forces engaged in assault on Sheikh Aqil in Rif #Aleppo firing guns & jets heard overhead.

00:25: Activists claim airstrike or large rocket just struck Al-Marj area outside #Damascus. New reports of gunfire in East Ghouta also.

00:45 - On my count, it seems that regime forces stand accused of 9+ ceasefire violations, 3+ of which look certain cases.

Huge uptick in #Russia airstrikes in final 3hrs before ceasefire. 100+ strikes reported in 4 N. #Aleppo towns, by 12+ jets flying at once.

If regime bombing of #Darayya continues for 10mins, the ceasefire will - in all likelihood - have lasted -00:01 secs

Lots of talk around #Damascus (& wider) that military strikes on #Darayya during ceasefire will spark a resumption of opposition operations.

[OUTLAW 09]

Well that did not take so long as the SAA has now formally broken their own Russian ceasefire.....

BREAKING
#SAA shelling mortars targeting #Turkmen_Mount
#Latakia cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling targeting #Beit_Jann, #Mughr_alMeer & #Jabal_alSheikh
#Damascus cs #Syria FEB 27

SAA shelling #FSA positions yet #FSA isn't shelling back.
#Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling heavy artillery targeting #Kafr_Nabuda village
#Hama cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling mortars targeted northern of #Talbiseh
#Homs #Syria FEB27

BREAKING
#RUSSIA warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Kafr_Zeta minutes ago
#Hama cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling w/ heavy artillery targeting #alHour in attempt to break into the village
#Latakia cs #Syria FEB 27

The unique real thing in this "Ceasefire" is the bombs falling.

[OUTLAW 09]

Well that did not take so long as the SAA has now formally broken their own Russian ceasefire.....

BREAKING
#SAA shelling mortars targeting #Turkmen_Mount
#Latakia cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling targeting #Beit_Jann, #Mughr_alMeer & #Jabal_alSheikh
#Damascus cs #Syria FEB 27

SAA shelling #FSA positions yet #FSA isn't shelling back.
#Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling heavy artillery targeting #Kafr_Nabuda village
#Hama cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling mortars targeted northern of #Talbiseh
#Homs #Syria FEB27

BREAKING
#RUSSIA warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Kafr_Zeta minutes ago
#Hama cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling w/ heavy artillery targeting #alHour in attempt to break into the village
#Latakia cs #Syria FEB 27

The unique real thing in this "Ceasefire" is the bombs falling.

Well it appears even the UN has no courage....nor the US nor even the Russians who wanted this ceasefire in the first place....as part of their so called peace plan.....a al Minsk 2 which they never fulfilled as well.

De Mistura: "A military response to the breach of the truce would be a last resort."

This #Ceasefire will be the unique in the world which last 1 second after it's start.. This is Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

Well that did not take so long as the SAA has now formally broken their own Russian ceasefire.....

BREAKING
#SAA shelling mortars targeting #Turkmen_Mount
#Latakia cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling targeting #Beit_Jann, #Mughr_alMeer & #Jabal_alSheikh
#Damascus cs #Syria FEB 27

SAA shelling #FSA positions yet #FSA isn't shelling back.
#Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling heavy artillery targeting #Kafr_Nabuda village
#Hama cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling mortars targeted northern of #Talbiseh
#Homs #Syria FEB27

BREAKING
#RUSSIA warplanes carried out airstrikes on #Kafr_Zeta minutes ago
#Hama cs #Syria FEB 27

BREAKING
#SAA shelling w/ heavy artillery targeting #alHour in attempt to break into the village
#Latakia cs #Syria FEB 27

The unique real thing in this "Ceasefire" is the bombs falling.

More Russian attacks after the start of their own initiated ceasefire.....

#BREAKING
#SAA & it's foreigners terrorists shelling on #FSA positions in the mounts of #Anandan
#Aleppo cs #Syria FEB 27

SAA shelling mortars targeted northern of #Talbiseh
#Homs #Syria FEB 27

SO much for that famous Russian map of no strike zones.....
Was not Talbiseh part of the ceasefire area designated by #Russia ?

Absolutely.

BREAKING
#RUSSIA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Daraa city
#Syria FEB 27

#BREAKING
#SAA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #alMarj area now
#Damascus cs #Syria FEB 27

[OUTLAW 09]

Black humor.............

A Russian ceasefire is like everything we make - breaks the first time you use it.

[OUTLAW 09]

More Russian attacks after the start of their own initiated ceasefire.....

#BREAKING
#SAA & it's foreigners terrorists shelling on #FSA positions in the mounts of #Anandan
#Aleppo cs #Syria FEB 27

SAA shelling mortars targeted northern of #Talbiseh
#Homs #Syria FEB 27

SO much for that famous Russian map of no strike zones.....
Was not Talbiseh part of the ceasefire area designated by #Russia ?

Absolutely.

BREAKING
#RUSSIA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Daraa city
#Syria FEB 27

#BREAKING
#SAA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #alMarj area now
#Damascus cs #Syria FEB 27

So now we fully understand the Russian goal in Syria...maybe Obama and Kerry should read the article....

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Gatilov: The long-term stabilization in Syria is impossible without the elimination of the terrorist threat there
http://sptnkne.ws/aHCz

Remember both Assad and Putin have defined anyone a terrorist if they resist Assad.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria #IS commando in control of main hospital in Tell Abyad
clashes since yesterday continues
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...44259&z=17&m=b …

VICE News ✔ @vicenews
No one knows what happened to the UN's first-ever humanitarian airdrop in Syria:
http://bit.ly/21hSxyq
pic.twitter.com/H9WrvqJIyf

BUT WAIT...the 21 tons were flown by a Russian contractor on a Russian plane and dropped by Russian loadmasters....surely someone knows where it went to???????

[OUTLAW 09]

More Russian attacks after the start of their own initiated ceasefire.....

#BREAKING
#SAA & it's foreigners terrorists shelling on #FSA positions in the mounts of #Anandan
#Aleppo cs #Syria FEB 27

SAA shelling mortars targeted northern of #Talbiseh
#Homs #Syria FEB 27

SO much for that famous Russian map of no strike zones.....
Was not Talbiseh part of the ceasefire area designated by #Russia ?

Absolutely.

BREAKING
#RUSSIA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #Daraa city
#Syria FEB 27

#BREAKING
#SAA warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting #alMarj area now
#Damascus cs #Syria FEB 27

Not the first reporting of a Russian ceasefire breach...one of many already and reports also in areas in the Russian no strike zone as well......

First reported breach of the #ceasefire, Assad army & militias tried to advance to Ayn al-Hawr vlge in Akrad Mount 2 hours after midnight.

Social media maybe off by an hour or two from incoming field reporting BUT MSM is not actually correct most of the time as seen by this article.....

Syria is 'calm, but tense' after a ceasefire brokered by the US and Russia goes into effect
http://read.bi/1XQEvye

Tense yes...calm....not so.....
pic.twitter.com/f3ltUXt4jV

[CrowBat]

BUT WAIT...the 21 tons were flown by a Russian contractor on a Russian plane and dropped by Russian loadmasters....surely someone knows where it went to???????

It was delivered with 'Russian precision'...

Anyway, Turkish military issued something like 'official confirmation' that 12 F-16s were involved in a UAV incident on the border....

12 F-16s for a single UAV...?

Ahem... cough... cough... ('xcuse me, must've been too many cigarettes yesterday... )

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Reports of possible big merge next:
Ahrar al-Sham, Army of Islam, Ajnad al Sham, Nur ad-Din, ShamFront, Lewa aal Haq

3 #Hezbollah commanders killed in #Syria while on terror duty killing Syrians for Assad.
pic.twitter.com/1QvyLg0Cyn

Wonder just how Obama and Kerry would support this proposal...especially with their tilt to Iran over the Sunni....

UAE Foreign Minister: Iranian-backed militias should be in our war on terror -
http://beyondthelevant.com/2016/02/2...war-on-terror/ …

News
Clashes between #YPG and #ISIS ongoing in several parts of #TellAbyad.
Reports of ISIS incursion from Turkey highly unlikely.

ANHA reports,2 ISIS gangs, "entering from Turkey and Rakka" attacked.
Only part of the city,NOT under ISIS attack is the one towards Turkey.

Night launch of a #Fagot taking out a 57 mm cannon in #Fawru, in #Ghab plain (W. #Hama).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzsndZFhSfg …
Interestingly removed by the user.....probably to not give away the type of night vision guidance system being used.

With 64 #TOW fired so far, February is already in Top 3 of monthly launches since first shipments in April 2014. #Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW....the T90 hit yesterday was in fact a tad damaged and left in place as it could not move......

After T90 hit by TOW, under-supplied Zinki advance in Sheikh Aqil (#Aleppo) vs Shia militias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ExDLlV4LsE …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZwHByH_hfY …

Despite #YPG complicity, pro-Regime forces bite dust in small village Sheikh Aqil & have 2 flee after T90 hit by #TOW & many KIA. W. #Aleppo

Geolocation: Shia militias fleeing Sheikh Aqil & escape 2 N. towards Zuq Al Kebir. W.#Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEdGjc9czXs …

[CrowBat]

Syria Reports of possible big merge next:
Ahrar al-Sham, Army of Islam, Ajnad al Sham, Nur ad-Din, ShamFront, Lewa aal Haq

Looking forward to see this really happening.

Today it turned out that even the supposed merger of the Jaysh as-Sunna (Sunni Army, about 500 strong) with Ahrar was a duck launched by Assad/Putler fans. Jaysh as-Sunna actually merged with Liwa al-Imam - which used to be a part of the AAS.

3 #Hezbollah commanders killed in #Syria while on terror duty killing Syrians for Assad.
pic.twitter.com/1QvyLg0Cyn

Yup, it's kind of funny there: it turned out that the 'SAA-inducted' break through of the Daesh blockade of Khan Nassir-Ithriya road saw exactly 0 (in letters: ZERO) SAA-involvement.

From the north it was the famed 'Tiger Force' (Ba'ath Party Militia) that was attacking - but actually failed to break through.

On the contrary, it was the force that arrived from the south that captured Khan Nassir and broke through, and this included:
- one brigade of Hezbollah/Lebanon;
- IRGC's Liwa ad-Daher (also 'ad-Daher Hawks'), consisting of Shi'a Jihadists from Iraq
- Hezbollah/Syria's Liwa Imam al-Badr
- PFLP-GC's Liwa al-Qods.

I would say that involvement of 'so much Hezbollah' is the crucial reason why do we actually get to see very few photos and videos of the aftermath of this battle (except those released by the Palestinians).

Anyway, as mentioned above: by the time this force punched through and connected with the Tiger Force, the Daesh outflanked them and cut off the road at two other points further south...

...means: we'll see a repetition of the entire exercise again, this time with yet more IRGC and Hezbollah troops inside the Aleppo pocket...

[OUTLAW 09]

Since the early morning SAA and RuAF violations not much being reported right now for SAA and RuAF activities.......IS is though in a couple of fights......

Reference IS....after months of not being bombed by the RuAF now they take on the Kurds......

Update
Simultaneous #ISIS attacks on #YPG-controlled towns Ain Issa, Tell Abyad and Suluk reported now.
pic.twitter.com/brSG9aFnKw

93 Martyrs
[9 children 6 Fighters 4 women]

42 Aleppo
28 Damascus
5 Idlib
4 Daraa
3 DeirEzzor
3 Homs
2 Hama
#Syria FEB 26

[OUTLAW 09]

200 Syrian orgs tell #Russia to leave #Syria.We need protection not #warcrimes
https://www.scribd.com/doc/300507134...resident-Putin …

Russian MoD Says airstrikes in 34 population areas in Syria stopped today.

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Russian airforce will not fly any missions in Syria today, according to the MoD. Briefing on going in Moscow.
https://www.rt.com/on-air/russia-mod-briefing-syria/ …

Let's see if the Assad AF fly's or not....

[OUTLAW 09]

Key to cessation of attacks in #Syria is to respond to violations quickly: UN official
http://uatoday.tv/politics/cessation-600002.html … pic.twitter.com/yLRA14pg1P

BUT WAIT the UN all but ruled out the use of force...as last resort and by whom was not answered.....so I guess the UN rep is just going to stand between the warring parties and shout "stop"??????

[OUTLAW 09]

200 Syrian orgs tell #Russia to leave #Syria.We need protection not #warcrimes
https://www.scribd.com/doc/300507134...resident-Putin …

Russian MoD Says airstrikes in 34 population areas in Syria stopped today.

Roland Oliphant @RolandOliphant
Russian airforce will not fly any missions in Syria today, according to the MoD. Briefing on going in Moscow.
https://www.rt.com/on-air/russia-mod-briefing-syria/ …

Let's see if the Assad AF fly's or not....

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
As at 10:00 27/2, teams report no aerial bombardment since midnight.