Russia played America for a fool for the second time this month & achieved new diplomatic victory left Turkey & Saudi looking flat-footed.
At some point one has to wonder when the Turks and Saudi's will wake up and realize the US does not care about them or the ME????
Although both the Turks and KSA have not taken their plans off the table as the Saudi exercise ends on 10 Mar and Turkish AF has been active over Syria..
Footage
Heavy clashes in #Aleppo between Syrian rebels and the #YPG.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFfQabUrVeU …
#Syria pic.twitter.com/NuKtHK7yid
Footage
Russian Su-24 fly over #Idlib towards #Aleppo province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_H3B8HkEzg …
pic.twitter.com/3t1jrnlklJ
The Kerry announced ceasefire is already a farce as it gave Putin another full week of bombings that Kerry stated in the first Munich 1938 had to stop and Russia is in full violation of not fufilling UNSC 2254.....which also stated the bombings of civilians had to stop......Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Noureddine Zanki movement fires large rocket at the Municipal Palace in #Aleppo, possibly hitting civilians.
pic.twitter.com/oGKKIlZMWU
ISIS kills 140 people in Syria as Assad tells refugees to come home
http://www.newsweek.com/syria-islami...ombings-428915 …
Fight or Flight: America’s Choice in the Middle East
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ight-or-flight …
on the historic chaos and danger of the U.S. "muddling through"
Well worth the reading...have to register to get access......
Fight or Flight
America’s Choice in the Middle East
By Kenneth M. Pollack
The modern Middle East has rarely been tranquil, but it has never been this bad. Full-blown civil wars rage in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Nascent conflicts simmer in Egypt, South Sudan, and Turkey. Various forms of spillover from these civil wars threaten the stability of Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia. Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have risen to new heights, raising the specter of a regionwide religious war. Israel and the Palestinians have experienced a resurgence of low-level violence. Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have weathered the storm so far, but even they are terrified of what is going on around them. Not since the Mongol invasions of the thirteenth century has the Middle East seen so much chaos.
Moreover, it is unlikely to abate anytime soon. No matter how many times Americans insist that the people of the Middle East will come to their senses and resolve their differences if left to their own devices, they never do. Absent external involvement, the region’s leaders consistently opt for strategies that exacerbate conflict and feed perpetual instability. Civil wars are particularly stubborn problems, and without decisive outside intervention, they usually last decades. The Congolese civil war is entering its 22nd year, the Peruvian its 36th, and the Afghan its 37th. There is no reason to expect the Middle East’s conflicts to burn out on their own either.
Continued.......
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-22-2016 at 06:26 PM.
Kremlin Troll site quoting nutbar conspiracy weirdo = BREAKING NEWS....welcome to 2016
http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...=socialnetwork …
Great example of Russian info warfare hard at work......
Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons?
The US investigative journalist Robert Parry has made an astonishing claim - and one that has gone completely unnoticed.
He is reporting that the Russian government has warned Erdogan that Russia is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons to defend its Syrian strike force from Turkish attack.
Parry’s exact words are as follows:
“A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught.
Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.”
Generally I would be skeptical of such a story from an anonymous source. However Parry is a journalist of the highest reliability and integrity so there can be no doubt he actually has been told this by a real source.
Of course it is possible the source is making the story up, or that he is not as close to Putin as Parry believes.
However on 11th February 2016 Russia’s Security Council held a meeting the public report of which is unusually terse, whilst on the same day the Russian military reported to Putin about a series of military exercises arranged at short notice in their southern military district, which look like they were intended to prepare the Russian military for rapid action at short notice against Turkey should the need arise.
If a warning really was given it might have been given either on that day or possibly on the day after, to coincide with the military exercises whose meaning in that case would not be lost on either the US or the Turks.
The meeting of the Security Council (whose importance I discussed here) would in that case have been convened to discuss and authorise it.
The fact Obama telephoned Putin a day later on 14th February 2016 might also be connected to the warning, if it really was given.
Both the Turks and the Russians would surely have informed the US of such a warning. It would be entirely understandable in that case that the US President would want to discuss it with the Russian President. In fact it would be astonishing if he did not want to.
If it was the warning Obama and Putin discussed, then that might explain why the US and the Russians are giving such completely different accounts of the conversation.
Neither side would want to make the warning public - something which would escalate the crisis to stratospheric levels - and each would want to concoct a cover story to hide what was really discussed, which given the circumstances and the urgency they might be unlikely to coordinate with each other. That might explain why the accounts of the conversation differ so much.
Against that it must be said that it is by no means unusual for Russian and Western governments to publish radically different accounts of conversations Russian and Western leaders have with each other.
All this it should be stressed is speculation, though as is apparent it is consistent with some of the diplomatic and military moves.
If such a warning really was given it would not be the first time the US or Russia have threatened to use nuclear weapons.
The US for example warned Saddam Hussein in 1990 that it was ready to retaliate with nuclear weapons if he used chemical weapons against their troops in the First Gulf War.
However a threat to use nuclear weapons is one that is never made lightly. If it really was made it shows how fraught the situation in Syria has become.
If the Russians really did make such a threat then it would be a further reason why the US and its European allies would be urging Erdogan to act with restraint, and would be counselling him against plunging into a war with the Russians in Syria.
I had already guessed this was the case (see here and here) and in the same article in which he reports the Russian threat Parry discusses this issue extensively.
Confirmation that the Western powers are warning Erdogan against an invasion of Syria has now also come from the Financial Times (see “Turkey and Saudi Arabia consider Syria intervention”, Financial Times, 18th February 2016):
“The US is seeking to rein in its allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia from military action in Syria if a ceasefire planned for today in the bloody civil war fails.
Despite mounting regional frustration over Washington’s allegedly passive stance on the five-year-old conflict the Obama administration and other western powers are worried that direct military interventions could lead to an escalation of the conflict and a dangerous clash with Russia.
“Are they going to deploy troops there? Not if we can help it,” said one senior Nato diplomat.””
Each day now provides further news of advances by the Syrian army and its allies in northern Syria.
The very latest information is that the last major rebel held town in Latakia province has been recaptured by the Syrian army, and that the Syrian army is just a few kilometres away from the city of Idlib.
Slowly but surely the trap around the jihadi rebels in Aleppo is closing.
Meanwhile - whether because of warnings from Moscow or Washington or for some other reason - the Turks and the Saudis have so far not matched their rhetoric with action.
The much discussed Saudi aircraft deployment to the US airbase at Incirlik has turned out to be much smaller than initially reported, and may not actually have taken place.
The Turks are publicly sticking to their position that they will not send their troops into Syria unilaterally - which could be taken to mean they will not invade Syria unless they have US agreement and unless the US contributes ground troops to the invasion force.
Turkish action so far has been limited to cross-border shelling of Kurdish forces near Azaz and demands the Kurds stay away from Azaz, which is near the Turkish border and which the Turks say they want to make part of a buffer zone.
Even these moves have been too much for some of Turkey’s NATO allies, provoking criticism by some NATO states of Turkey for its shelling of the Kurds, though claims the UN Security Council has passed a Resolution condemning Turkey’s actions are untrue.
Interestingly the Western powers seem reluctant to endorse Turkey’s claims the Kurds of Iraq and Syria - as opposed to the Kurds of Turkey - were behind Wednesday’s terrorist attack on a military convoy in Ankara (see this discussion here), whilst Turkey’s response to the attack was to bomb Kurdish targets in Iraq rather than in Syria.
The situation is still very tense and it is premature to say that the crisis - if one exists - is past.
Whether because of Russian threats to use nuclear weapons or because of calls of restraint from the West and possibly from his own military or for some other reason, the signs for the moment however point to Erdogan backing off.
With every day that passes without a Turkish ground invasion the prospects of it happening grow less. The next few weeks should decide the issue.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-22-2016 at 06:37 PM.
Being a cat owner.....well worth watching....
Watch the moment a refugee family is reunited with the cat they lost in Greece
http://i100.io/ijVzAvC
pic.twitter.com/YDGOy4qeNL
Tablet story on #Assad regime war criminals in #Europe & why we shouldn't be ignoring them:
http://goo.gl/PYv54N
Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-22-2016 at 08:53 PM. Reason: Clarity over author and changed - was I, not Outlaw 09
Obama's call with #Putin. Unusual to be so explicit that "at the Kremlin's request".
Putin made #Syria ceasefire announcement as v earnest national TV address. Test= tomorrow's targets on ground
pic.twitter.com/sTy0gcbN87
During ceasefire we have lost #Debaltseve, in #Syria they will loose #Aleppo...
Putin: "finally, a real chance to end years of bloodshed and violence" in #Syria, Russia will ensure Assad holds.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51376 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-22-2016 at 07:37 PM.
More from social media today........
Iyad El-Baghdadi @iyad_elbaghdadi
That @BostonGlobe would publish such a piece is just scandalous. It belongs on conspiracy blogs, not on reputable media.
21 Feb
Iyad El-Baghdadi @iyad_elbaghdadi
Yes @stephenkinzer, the brave journalists and media activists who gave their life are nothing but propagandists.
https://twitter.com/stephenkinzer/st...13648934916096 …
Regime airforce drop leaflets on vlgs recently taken by YPG linked Jaysh al-Thuwar demanding surrender within 24 hrs
pic.twitter.com/NNqTdjmnWD
Is Russia 'Weaponizing Refugees' To Advance Its Geopolitical Goals? http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../27562604.html … via @RFERL
The new #Syria ceasefire agreement looks a lot like the old #Syria ceasefire agreement(s).
This is because they are exactly the same. Since 2012. New parties to conflict, but exactly the same otherwise.
Seems #Aleppo Thermal Power Plant is badly damaged -no power
for a long time
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...39260&z=16&m=b …
Syria Heavy clashes btw #FSA & #YPG continues in NW #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFfQabUrVeU …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff1JKMtzYbQ …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...40591&z=16&m=b …
Reports of a massive #ISIS attack against YPG/SDF in al-Hol in eastern #Hasaka where #ISIS is said to be advancing
That’s a first, reports of clashes between Jabhat al-Akrad & Jaish al-Thuwar in Afrin, north rural #Aleppo
Heavy clashes continue between rebels & the YPG/SDF around Sheikh Maqsoud in #Aleppo
FSA Sultan Murad Brigade fighting the #PKK in the #Ashrafiyeh district of #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff1JKMtzYbQ …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...42758&z=16&m=b …
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Russia disturbed by Turkish-Israeli rapprochement, report says
http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy...ys_412805.html …
Turkey will welcome any ceasefire agreement that can end the flow of refugees and prevent the Kurds from linking Efrin with Kobane
Al Arabiya English ✔ @AlArabiya_Eng
#BREAKING Turkey welcomes Syria ceasefire, wants to see end to Russia
bombardments that kill civilians, says deputy PM
Aleppo fronts are mostly quiet,as most #SAA #IRGC forces head towards #Khanaser to fend off #ISIS.Rebels r not moving a finger,as predicted
A Larger offensive by the mujahideen targeting the Sheikh Maqdood area in Aleppo has reportedly BegunThe ceasefire implies that
1-the foreign Shia militias will remain in Syria
2-Assad regime future is not on the table for discussion
3- Regime has the right to take ISIS territory (40% of Syria)
4- Regime can attack rebel areas (because of Nusra) but rebels can't retaliate
The YPG has clearly overestimated itself and is in danger of losing its recent gains
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-22-2016 at 08:12 PM.
Iran terrorist Mitaq Abaowi who killed civilians for Assad in #Damascus now posing as #Syria'n Refugee in #Germany
Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-22-2016 at 08:56 PM. Reason: see original post
AND just what the heck is this WHEN nothing is being stated about electios in the so called cease fire......
Meanwhile Assad is calling for parliamentary election on April.
https://twitter.com/skynewsarabia_b/...61943599042562 …
What the heck is this statement out of Iran.........
Amir Taheri
@AmirTaheri4
TEHRAN- #ZARIF today: Even if ceasefire is agreed in #Syria, operations to cleanse the country from terrorists will continue.
Kerry and Putin have an answer for this......??????
Seems Iran & Hizbollah will still fight FSA & opposition since they are the groups that Iran sees as terrorists.
Iran FM says Ahrar al-Sham included in list of terrorist groups for #Syria ceasefire....and quietly JaI as well as FSA.......
Syrian ceasefire seems likely to involve less ceasing fire, and more arguments about whether Russia is bombing Nusra or other rebels
London isn't optimistic about a ceasefire in Syria unless Moscow and Damascus change behavior.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-22-2016 at 08:52 PM.
I think this CIA operations officer is speculating.
http://youtu.be/qt3trHKqdiM
Moderator's Note
This subject, whether Saudi Arabia has nuclear weapons, is on a separate thread. Not here thank you. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...p?t=546&page=4
Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-22-2016 at 09:01 PM. Reason: Add Mod's Note.
Obama is hoping for Iranian moderation....think again.......
Ayatollah #Khatami: No one can change our system's behavior through elections. In #Islam election is renewal of pledge to #Supreme #Leader.
Was not much of a moderation for 100B USDs.
First Kerry and Obama with great fanfare announce the coming ceasefire BUT...-
Obama and Kerry get "fooled again and again and again"........
Just how in the heck is one suppose to have elections in all of Syria unless only held in Assad held areas.....DOES IS get a chance to to elect Assad as well since they control about 40 percent of Syria????
AND what about all the Syrian refugees and IDPs..they are not to vote and that is called by the US "fair elections"...not really just another Crimea Referendum......
Al Arabiya English
@AlArabiya_Eng
#BREAKING Syria's Assad calls parliamentary election on April 13
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-22-2016 at 09:05 PM.
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