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Thread: Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

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  1. #1
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    Default A Saleh/Houthi Schism? Where's CrowBat?

    Yemen's former President #Saleh demands armed Yemeni forces refrain from taking any orders from Houthi militia, and calls for "opening a new page with neighboring countries"

    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...for-Sanaa.html

    After a brief loll amid mediation, fighting between Houthi and Saleh loyalists just resumed in multiple fronts in capital Sana'a, Yemen, according to eyewitnesses in capital. Arms being used are automatic guns, anti aircraft, and RPG.
    https://twitter.com/Shuaibalmosawa/s...11769262829570

    Added:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42212398
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-03-2017 at 10:47 AM. Reason: 3rd link added

  2. #2
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    Default BREAKING: Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen's former president, killed by the Houthis

    His body was paraded by Houthi fighters and his family compounds seized. More to follow...

  3. #3
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    Default Rebels kill Yemen’s strongman Saleh as alliance collapses

    From AP: https://www.apnews.com/37db63791e084...ance-collapses

    SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Yemeni rebels killed their erstwhile ally Ali Abdullah Saleh, the country’s former president and strongman, as their forces battled for control of the capital, Sanaa, officials said. The collapse of their alliance throws Yemen’s nearly 3-year-old civil war into unpredictable new chaos.

    The circumstances of Saleh’s death were unclear but Houthi officials said their forces caught up with him as he tried to flee Sanaa.

    A video circulating online purported to show Saleh’s body, his eyes open but glassy, motionless with a gaping head wound, as he was being carried in a blanket by rebel fighters chanting “God is great” who then dump him into a pickup truck. Blood stained his shirt under a dark suit...

    Saleh’s death was announced by the rebels, known as Houthis, who have been fighting Saleh’s forces for the past week. Two of Saleh’s associates have confirmed and a third official from the government of Yemen’s internationally recongnized president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, has also confirmed.

    “The leader of treason has been killed,” Houthis’ TV network al-Masriah said.

    Saleh allied with the Houthis, and the support of his loyalist military units was key to helping the Houthis overrun the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, driving out Hadi’s government. But in recent months, the alliance frayed amid Houthi suspicions Saleh was leaning toward the Saudi-led coalition backing Hadi.

    Hadi’s forces, trying to take advantage of the collapse of the alliance, announced they would march on Sanaa.

    But even without Saleh’s loyalists, the rebels remain a powerful force and it is unclear how much the break with Saleh weakens them. Over the past year, the Houthis had steadily undermined Saleh and reduced their need for him, winning military commanders over to their side and boosting their own forces.

    A major question now will be whether Saleh’s loyalists — and tribes that support him — can rally to fight the Houthis after his death.

    Several Houthi military officials said Saleh was killed as he headed along with top party leaders from Sanaa to his hometown of Sanhan, nearby. Houthi fighters followed him in 20 armored vehicles, attacked and killed him and almost all those with him, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press. A Houthi media official, Abdel-Rahman al-Ahnomi told the Associated Press that Houthi fighters killed Saleh as he tried to flee to Saudi Arabia though the province of Marib, to the east of the capital.

    The Saudi-led coalition had hoped that Saleh’s break with the Houthis would be a turning point, isolating the rebels. Over the past days, fighter jets from the Saudi-led coalition pounded Houthis positions, throwing support behind Saleh and fueling divisions with Houthis. Hadi’s government had expressed willingness to turn “a new page” with whoever stands against the rebels.

    The fighting left Sanaa divided. The Houthis dominate the northern part of the city, while Saleh’s forces hold the southern part, with much of the current fighting concentrated around the Political District, home to ministries and foreign embassies. The Houthis appeared to be targeting the homes of Saleh’s family, political allies and commanders...

    During his more than 30 years in power, Saleh was known as the man who “dances on the heads of snakes” for his mastery of shifting alliances, playing both sides or flipping sides in the multiple conflicts tearing apart Yemen.

    In the 2000s, he was a key ally of the U.S. in the fight against al-Qaida, taking millions of dollars in American aid to hunt down the group’s branch — even as he was accused of striking alliances with the militants and using them against his own enemies. During his rule, he fought multiple wars against the Houthis in northern Yemen, only to side with them against his own former vice president-turned-successor, Hadi, after he lost power.

  4. #4
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Yemen’s profound and tragic problems

    Thanks to a "lurker" a recommendation for a new book 'Yemen in Crisis: Neo-Liberalism and Disintegration of the State' by a SME, Helen Lackner, and a short comment:
    Lackner combines elegant writing with incisive and lucid analysis … This is an indispensable guide to understanding
    Yemen’s profound and tragic problems.
    Link:http://www.alsaqibookshop.com/shopexd.asp?id=46910

    Link to author's bio:http://b-ys.org.uk/directory-of-expertise

    Well after recent events, as the author stated yesterday President Saleh was in power for thirty-three years and without him the problems look no nearer resolution.
    davidbfpo

  5. #5
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    London-based Yemeni watcher @ Kings College ICSR ponders what next, notably:
    There are important questions about what will happen to the troops loyal to Saleh, and the considerable weaponry and resources they hold.
    (Near the end) In Yemen right now- and for the foreseeable future — the only certainty is that there is no certainty.
    Link:https://www.thenational.ae/world/men...ainty-1.681694
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-08-2017 at 09:12 PM. Reason: 93,349v
    davidbfpo

  6. #6
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    The Emiratis and the Hirak (or Southern Resistance) are pushing along the Red Sea coast from Khukha towards north, in direction of Hodeida.

    While this is coming forward quite well, there's the usual problem with the lack of 'high quality' troops to secure areas that were already taken. With Emiratis up front, the Hirak seems to be given the task for securing the flanks, perhaps corsetting less reliable troops - like those of Saleh or the Islah Militia.

    After nearly three years of this war, the Houthis have learned their lessons about the Emirati firepower. Thus, they're using hills and mountains on the eastern side of the coastal plain to launch counterattacks into the flank of this advance; furthermore, they've heavily mined all the roads towards north, and are constantly ambushing the advance.

    The last few days, they also launched several bigger counterattacks in the area of Hays. Rumour has it, the Saleh- and Islah-forces run away from there, leaving the Hirak on their own.

    While Emirati armour is harder to crack (seems, the Houthis run their and ex-YA's stocks of ATGMs quite dry), Hirak is primarily using soft-skin vehicles, and relatively few MRAPs. Unsurprisingly, there are reports about the Hirak losing 'hundreds of fighters and 70 vehicles', since 8 December.

    It's going to be interesting to see if the Emiratis might stop their advance until they can clear the Houthis on their flank (or at least weaken them sufficiently to pre-empt most of further counterattacks).

    **************

    Related to all of this is the following, OSINT-based assessment about the performance of the AMX-66 LeClerc MBT in combat. It's nearly a year old and in French, but a very interesting read: Lessons from the commitment of the tanks of the Leclerc in the Yemen.

  7. #7
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Default

    No news from the Red Sea coast, but it seems, the Emiratis are not that easy to impress. In Shabwa, they and the Hirak have crushed one of the local Houthi defence lines (killing 19 and capturing 32 in the process), and then captured al-Alia, the last southern town under the Houthi control.

    Next target in that area: Beyhan.

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