Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

I recently attended an advocacy group meeting on the Yemen, which had a variety of speakers and two UK-based SME made a particular impact. The meeting was under 'Chatham House Rules' so the SME remain anonymous.

Both agreed that the Saudi intervention is becoming their Vietnam, a quagmire where 'The poorest Arab country is being destroyed by the richest'. Yemenis share an Afghan characteristic in rejecting foreigners. The cost of the war is US$5-6 billion per month - this was attributed to a paper by Bruce Reidel. Too many armed group now exist, it is in their interests to continue the war and the Saudi coalition is yet to find competent local partners amongst he mix of tribes, military defectors and others. Since the Arab Spring the Saudis have opposed every change by repression, thir strategic interest in the Yemen is not to have a sovereign, stable nation-state.

Popular support for the intervention has disappeared inside Saudi Arabia and is often seen as inflicting 'severe damage at home and abroad'. Inadvertently the action has opened a public debate in the West over Western support for the Saudis.

So far the Saudi Army has been deployed to the border, with mixed results in fighting intrusions by the Houthi and recent urges of senior officers have put the better equipped National Guard under Army command, which led to rumours of dissent.

The ex-President Saleh led faction, with a good part of the Yemeni military, somehow remains fighting with the Houthi. One factor could be that Saleh's moves to defect from the Houthi coalition became known to the Saudis, but they failed to plan for him actually moving against the Houthi. This failure has been noticed by others.

'AQAP are the main beneficiary of the war' and the Mukalla bank raid, with a US$100m gained will fund them for years.

In 2008 the UAE =based and owned operator, DP World, leased Aden port for twenty years, paying a claimed US8 billion (which was never seen by Yemenis); they promptly closed the port and sacked staff. The contract was subject to negotiations to cancel in 2012. Put simply the UAE has an interest in Aden port not working. In a quick search I found two reports that supports this: https://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2017/apr...r_somalia.aspx
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/co...n-gulf-of-aden

[davidbfpo]

Helen Lackner is the author of this article, which has a longer title and provides a summary of the situation today. I'd missed a Houthi negotiator is in Oman.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/helen-lackner/on-wretched-third-anniversary-of-international-intervention-in-?

[davidbfpo]

Part 2 has a little politics, mainly on the support from the USA & UK for the coalition and the remainder is on the humanitarian crisis.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/helen-lackner/wretched-third-anniversary-of-international-intervention-in-yem?

[Azor]

From The Aviationist: https://theaviationist.com/2018/03/2...iyadh-instead/

Saudi Patriot PAC-2 SAM battery in Riyadh fired MIM-104C Surface to Air Missiles at a Burkan 2-H SRBM (Short Range Ballistic Missile) in the night between Mar 25 and 26, 2018.

The SRBM was reportedly intercepted by one of the SAMs (at least 7 according to journalist Babak Taghvaee were launched) but at least two of them failed: one hit a resindential area (at the time of writing the number of casualties/fatalities is unknown), whereas another one exploded mid-air shortly after launch.

[AdamG]

Saudi Arabia intercepts 7 missiles fired from Yemen, military officials say

(CNN)Saudi Arabia's air force intercepted seven missiles fired from Yemen on Sunday and, in the debris that rained down on residential suburbs from the interceptions, one man was killed, the Saudis said in a statement.
Coalition forces spokesman Col. Turki Al Maliki said the missiles were fired from Yemen at four target areas, and all the missiles were intercepted and destroyed, according to the statement.
This isn't the first time the kingdom was the target of missile strikes from neighboring Yemen, but it is the first time there's been a fatality on Saudi soil. After previous interceptions, the Saudis responded with airstrikes on the Yemeni capital of Sana'a. The response to a fatal incident such as Sunday's is likely to be even more punishing.
Three were aimed at the capital city of Riyadh, one was headed toward the southwest in Khamis Mushait, one along the southern border targeting Najran and two were headed for the southern city of Jizan.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/25/middl...ile/index.html

[Azor]

Saudi Arabia intercepts 7 missiles fired from Yemen, military officials say


https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/25/middl...ile/index.html

That is a rather uncritical regurgitation of Saudi propaganda...

IMG_20180326_075714.jpg

[CrowBat]

From The Aviationist: https://theaviationist.com/2018/03/2...iyadh-instead/

...and both are babbling nonsense (one because it's superficial and sensationalist, the other because of his illusions of grandeur).

During the night from 25 to 26 March 2018 (i.e. on the third anniversary of this war), the Missile Force of the Houthis has fired a number of ballistic missiles and rockets at Saudi Arabia. According to the Houthi-controlled SABA News, missiles used were Burkan-2H, Qaher-2M, and Badr. To make sure:

- Burkan-2Hs are rebuilds of various R-17s and Hwasong-6s imported by Yemen in the 1980s and 1990s (i.e. 'Scud' and North-Korean-made, 'extended range Scud'), then destroyed or damaged by the Saudi-led coalition in March and April 2015. They might contain parts smuggled in from Iran.

- Qaher-2Ms are old V-750 missiles of the well-known, Soviet-made SA-75M (SA-2 Guideline) SAM-system. Yemen has got over 800 of these in the 1970s and 1980s, and they really take no 'rocket science' to be deployed as 'ballistic missiles'.

- Badr (aka Badr-1) seems to be little else but a re-packaged BM-21 and/or BM-27s.

Following launches and/or intercepts have been reported:

- 3 missiles (obviously Burkan-2Hs) were fired at King Khalid IAP in Riyadh; all three were intercepted by MIM-104D/Fs operated by the Royal Saudi Air Defence Force (the RSADF is operating a mix of PAC-2s and PAC-3s).

Burkan-2H (photo from December 2017):
HS Burkan-2H 19Dez17A.jpg

- 2 missiles (type presently unclear) were fired at Khamis Mushayt, results unknown.

- 1 missile (Qaher-2M) was fired at Najran, and intercepted.

- 1 missile (Qaher-2M) was fired at Abha Regional Airport, and intercepted.

Qaher-2M (photo from early 2016):
HS Qaher-2M.jpg

- several rockets (Badr-1) were fired at Jizzan airport 'and other targets' (SABA), results unknown.

Badr-1 (photo from 22 March 2018):
HS BM-21 Badr-1 Mar18 launcher.jpg

As far as can be assessed by now, the warhead of one of Burkan-2Hs was intercepted quite low over Riyadh (that's what resulted in the video showing 'fireworks'): debris and shrapnel did cause quite some material damage. Worst of all: one person (an Egyptian expatriate worker) was killed, and at least two injured.

Furthermore, one of missiles fired by one of several RSADF-operated MIM-104 SAM sites protecting Riyadh, has malfunctioned and crashed shortly after the launch. This one has hit an empty area, without causing injuries or damage.

Primary problem in engagements of this kind remain these Burkan-2H missiles. They are so poorly manufactured, they are tumbling and falling apart on re-entry (and no: contrary to what various 'experts' and the NYT are reporting, Burkans are neither 'made by Iran', nor containing 'separating warheads': that's science fiction). The PAC-2/3 then targets each big piece with 1-2 missiles. That's why one Burkan-2 usually results in firing of 5-7 Patriot SAMs. In this case, the warhead of one of three Burkan-2H came quite low over Riyadh before it was finally hit (see the video with 'fireworks'). Thus, the shrapnel caused injuries and damage on the ground.

Final word: for all the hatred for the Saudis expressed in the social media, one could still remain sane enough to trust them at least to push the 'auto' button on their PAC-2/3s.

[Azor]

...and both are babbling nonsense (one because it's superficial and sensationalist, the other because of his illusions of grandeur).

Both who?

..As far as can be assessed by now, the warhead of one of Burkan-2Hs was intercepted quite low over Riyadh (that's what resulted in the video showing 'fireworks'): debris and shrapnel did cause quite some material damage. Worst of all: one person (an Egyptian expatriate worker) was killed, and at least two injured.

Furthermore, one of missiles fired by one of several RSADF-operated MIM-104 SAM sites protecting Riyadh, has and crashed shortly after the launch. This one has hit, without causing injuries or damage.

How can you be so sure that it was the Burkan-2H warhead that caused damage and death/injury on the ground and not the errant PAC-2?

...contrary to what various 'experts' and the NYT are reporting, Burkans are neither 'made by Iran', nor containing 'separating warheads': that's science fiction)...Final word: for all the hatred for the Saudis expressed in the social media, one could still remain sane enough to trust them at least to push the 'auto' button on their PAC-2/3s.

Yet it is the Saudis themselves who are blaming Iran for the launch...

I am not anti-Patriot, as that crowd seems to have too much admiration for Russian and Chinese SAMs, despite greater recent US experience, and relatively successful experience at that. Moreover, the Saudis were apparently using PAC-2s rather than PAC-3s.

However, I thought that you would have posted here first about this event, and I thought that you of all people would appreciate the meme...

[Azor]

According to Twitter user @YemeniObserv , Yemeni (ostensibly Houthi) air defenses struck two UAE F-16s.

Source: https://twitter.com/YemeniObserv/sta...02442681561088

DZUMraTW4AAkbBg.jpg

[CrowBat]

Both who?

'The Aviationist' & Taghvae.

How can you be so sure that it was the Burkan-2H warhead that caused damage and death/injury on the ground and not the errant PAC-2?

What can you see on this video (I've posted the link above): https://twitter.com/3gb_1/status/978...903754240?s=21

...a Patriot hitting some densely-populated place?

Yet it is the Saudis themselves who are blaming Iran for the launch...

Yes, like they always do - and although their own 'evidence' is proving them wrong, all the time.

No clue why do they still insist on that legend.