Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[CrowBat]

...all of that summarised - perhaps as a 'basic guide' for all the new-comers into related affairs - and by your very own:

A New State Is Emerging in Yemen

A new country is beginning to form in the chaos and confusion of Yemen’s civil war. A coup in Aden in late January 2018 has hastened the process.

The new Yemen has its roots in the period 1990 to 1994, when the Saudi-supported North Yemen and the Cuban/Soviet-supported South were forcibly united. The united Yemen was dominated by a clique surrounding North Yemen president Abdullah Saleh.

Although he eventually appointed a southerner – Soviet-trained Maj. Gen. Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi as his vice president, Saleh ruled the country like a family enterprise. He appointed his son, nephews and other members of his family and tribe to all important positions of the military and the state.

All the power, and most of development, were concentrated in Sana’a, and the Saleh clique had the final word in every single state affair.

Saleh and his clique tended to disparage the southerners as “Eritreans” and “Indians,” because Aden was predominantly populated by people who came the region as laborers during the British colonial period.

Saleh and his clique likewise discriminated against many northerners, describing those of Zaidi origin as “backward.”
...

[davidbfpo]

Tom,

Thank you for being so informative on the situation in the whole of the Yemen.

This sentence reminded me of a couple of factors:

On the contrary, the Emiratis intensified their cooperation with the southerners, foremost the separatists and the Hadramawt Confederation.

There is a "kith & kin" link between the Gulf states that dates back a long time, I understand it was based on commercial and trading links. This was reinforced in 1967 when the UK left Aden and "up country", many of the traditional leaders in the Hadramawt and elsewhere fled to the Gulf. At least one senior UAE official is from the Hadramawt.

I do wonder if these leaders ever returned, either when the Communist regime ended or later.

Dr Elisabeth Kendall @ Pembroke College, Oxford University is a regular visitor to the Yemen, including long term access to the Hadramawt. To see her publications dip into:https://oxford.academia.edu/ElisabethKendall and her slim bio:

In she wrote a 14 pgs. paper 'Iran’s Fingerprints in Yemen' in October 2017 for the Atlantic Council and concluded:

a conflict that began essentially as a politically and tribally motivated dispute over territory, resources and power may yet over time turn into a long-term cycle of bloody sectarian violence. In this respect, the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen is – to some extent – helping to exacerbate the very problem it claimed to be designed to solve.

Link:http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/image...n_web_1019.pdf

Would a semi-independent South Yemen, following the Somaliland model, really be that bad for the people? It might suit the diplomats and outsiders, but on reflection have they really helped the people that much for many years?

[CrowBat]

AFAIK, they never returned. They are still in the UAE.... which is why the UAE has it as easy to deal with them: there is lots of mutual sympathy.

Would a semi-independent South Yemen, following the Somaliland model, really be that bad for the people?

It would be a realistic solution, apparently conform to what most of the people living in that part of Yemen want - too.

But, well: try convincing governments of various countries that have 'problems with separatists' to accept a secession of South Yemen. That's also the reality, and why Somaliland is still not internationally recognized.

[davidbfpo]

A slightly long article and the sub-title gives a clue why:

The commonly held view that the conflicts in Yemen – and elsewhere in the region – are a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia must be revised.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...li-abdullah-s?

The more you read, the more Byzantine the Yemen seems. President Saleh was:

Despite also being a member of the Houthis’ Zaidi sect, he had little regard for sectarian loyalty; in the pursuit of power he allied with Sunni Salafists against Zaidi Houthis, and later with the Houthis against everyone else.

[davidbfpo]

A short paper (44 pgs) by a British academic who has spent years in the Yemen and published by a US think tank (POMED) on a fascinating aspect of the multiple conflicts in the Yemen.

A "taster" from the summary:

Some Western observers (along with many Yemeni government authorities) contend that a key reason for AQAP’s staying-power is that some tribes are aligned with the terrorist group and provide it with safe havens, fighters, and other support. To be sure, AQAP has a presence in some tribal areas, and some tribal members (along with other Yemenis, and some foreigners) have joined the group. But in doing so, they have acted independently, against the wishes of their tribes. Yemeni tribes as collective entities —as opposed to individual tribesmen—have not allied with AQAP or agreed to give its fighters sanctuary. Tribes reject the group’s radical and violent ideology and tend to see AQAP as a serious challenge to their authority.

Because of tribal pushback, AQAP has only been able to seize territory and make other gains in parts of Yemen where the tribal structure is relatively weak. The failure of the Yemeni ruling elite to seriously confront the AQAP problem, and the civil war instigated by that same ruling elite, have been more significant factors in the group’s spread than any tribal action.

Link:http://pomed.org/wp-content/uploads/...NAL_180201.pdf

[CrowBat]

A slightly long article and the sub-title gives a clue why:Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...li-abdullah-s?

The more you read, the more Byzantine the Yemen seems. President Saleh was:

Rather tragically, such articles come much too late: nearly three years since everybody with a good insight there was warning about US decision-makers having no clue what are they doing in Yemen.

I really do not understand why do the USA always must do everything wrong in cases like this one?

Worst of all: why this insistence on specific ideas and turning these into dogmas?

At earlier times (say: Vietnam), the 'moment of realisation' - the 15th or 16th time the US hit the wall with the forehead - would've been enough to prompt a major change in the politics. In the cases like Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Syria and Yemen, not even this is happening any more...

[davidbfpo]

A short review of a book published in October '17:

"Tribes and Politics in Yemen” fills this gap; it gives an understanding of how a religious movement focused on spirituality evolved into one of the major opposition armed groups in Yemen with plans for statehood.

Link:https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20...rcIXOE.twitter

[davidbfpo]

Saudi-Yemen relations take a new twist:

As a result of reforms to Saudi labour laws designed to tackle the country’s high levels of unemployment, hundreds of thousands of illegal migrant workers have been deported from the Kingdom since November last year. Saudi Arabia’s economic overhaul is desperately needed, but could be having a dangerous unforeseen effect. Forced back to a country in the grip of a humanitarian crisis and with no economic prospects, it is feared thousands of deported Yemenis could be picking up guns to join the Houthis or al-Qaeda, who see the influx of jobless young men as a prime recruitment opportunity. According to statistics from the Saudi interior ministry, 65 per cent of those deported recently are Yemeni – which means a total of 100,000 have already been sent home, and 130,000 more await a similar fate.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8248506.html