Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[Bob's World]

What the Navy and Air Force call the rise of "Anti-Access, Area Denial" (A2AD) is more accurately the decline of the era of American impunity.

Frankly, the sooner it ends the better, as it will force us to once again adopt a reasonable, interest-based foreign policy that is more tolerant of the self-determination of others.

Yemen is in the midst of revolution, and reasonably so. Saudi revolutionaries take sanctuary within Yemen as well. Many of those are also member of AQ (who's primary purpose has always been revolutionary and focused on the al Saud family). Playing out as well is the larger state on state dynamic that Outlaw describes as Iran and the KSA compete for regional preeminence. Then there are the outside players like the US and Russia both jockeying for position on an even larger scale. Where there is insurgency, the exploiter will gather.

By applying a CT rationale to al Qaeda we have conflated nationalist revolutionaries, UW operatives and foreign fighters (typically revolutionaries at home) all under one big "AQAA" targeting banner and fired at the center of mass. OF COURSE these guys are shooting back at us. We need to put a finer point on our understanding of UW and the insurgencies supported and connected by the UW activities of AQ, ISIL and Iran.

If we applied a more appropriate Counter-UW logic we would quickly see that all of the revolutionary individuals and organizations need to come off of our il-conceived terrorist lists. We too should be conducting UW with those groups and competing for influence with the other state and non-state actors seeking to leverage the energy of these movements to advance their respective ends. Instead we find ourselves protecting regimes that are far out of step with their own populations, and being easily duped into killing their revolutionary populations for them in the name of "CT"!

We have mischaracterized this conflict from inception, and the poor strategic results we are attaining are not only predictable, but have been predicted and ignored. To escalate now does not make us look tougher or smarter. It is a weak and ignorant play.

[davidbfpo]

Just up on the BBC News:

The Saudi-led coalition bombing Houthi rebels in Yemen says it attacked a funeral hall in the capital, Sanaa, based on "bad information".At least 140 people were killed, most of them civilians, in the attack on 8 October - one of the single worst death tolls in the two-year conflict.
A Saudi inquiry blames "non-compliance with coalition rules of engagement" and "the issuing of incorrect information".

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37666698


Yes, the BBC repeats most of those killed were civilians. If you look back through posts here the only acknowledged dead were all military.

[CrowBat]

Quite a 'dramatic turn of events', considering several 1st hand sources - including people that almost went there to participate in that funeral - remain insistent: most of those that were killed were high military officials of the Houthi/Saleh coalition.

But then, I think that's the very essence of the problem, i.e. the very reason for most of such attacks with 'massive collateral damage' flown by the Saudi-led coalition in this war so far.

'Somebody there' provides 'reliable intelligence' on presence of some Houthi (or Saleh) minister, or top officer, or whatever else. The 'somebody there' must not even be a fan of Hadi (quite on the contrary: most of them tend to ask, 'What Hadi should be our president? Oh, that Hadi? Why him?!?') - nor even an outspoken opponent of Houthis (most of these are languishing in different jails meanwhile, anyway).

All the character in question needs to have is some sort of 'open score' with somebody else who might be present 'there' at the given point in time, or not at all. And a cell phone.

And if some over-eager officer on duty back in the HQ in Riyad happens not to cross-check the backgrounds of the source in question... 'boom'.

*******

Here a short (and much softened) summary of 'Houthi' anti-shipping ops along the coast of the Red Sea: To Threaten Ships, the Houthis Improvised a Missile Strike#Force - with observation that the detail on 'Iranian-backed' was inserted by the editor:

At 7:00 in the evening local time on Oct. 9, 2016, a missile fired from Houthi-controlled territory around the port of Hodeida — on the Red Sea coast in northwestern Yemen — crashed into the water several miles away from U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Mason, underway in international waters near the Bab Al Mandab Strait.

Mason and the destroyer USS Nitze were escorting Ponce, an amphibious assault ship that supports minesweeping helicopters. Another missile struck the sea in the same area around an hour later.

Mason launched two SM-2 surface-to-air missiles and a single Evolved Sea Sparrow in self-defense — and also deployed a Nulka decoy. It’s unclear whether any of countermeasures were effective. It’s possible the missiles crashed into the sea on their own. The Navy said it would investigate.

But the more important question is where the Houthis — an Iranian-backed Shia rebel movement that controls much of Yemen — got anti-ship missiles in the first place.
...

[OUTLAW 09]

Just up on the BBC News:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37666698


Yes, the BBC repeats most of those killed were civilians. If you look back through posts here the only acknowledged dead were all military.

Sorry again BBC is just flat wrong as they have been a number of recents times and that is strange for BBC....actual video footage shot right after the attack show not a single civilian...man, woman, child was killed and or injured point one and the released loses statement by Saleh indicate clearly military aged men were hit.....

The KSA is simply doing a "am sorry" to make the US happy...but do not think for a moment KSA is sorry for killing 29 Generals in a "mistaken attack".

REMEMBER the so called US air strike on claimed Assad troops...the US offered to pay compensation BUT the Assad regime has failed to produce a single request for payment....AND it was IS who actually first claimed the US was correct...they had been the one's hit...a rarity for IS/US cooperation is it not?????

REMEBER the very first SANA reporting was that the air strike was a cluster munitions strike and it was social media that posted the photos of the two guided bomb strikes NOT SANA, BBC or anyone else....

[OUTLAW 09]

This graphic shows the ratcheting up of the ongoing missile war in Yemen
http://read.bi/2eeKQCA

BUT WAIT...BBC has not reported on this yet has it???

[CrowBat]

The KSA is simply doing a "am sorry" to make the US happy...but do not think for a moment KSA is sorry for killing 29 Generals in a "mistaken attack".

Tend to agree here.

Much of what the Saudis are doing in regards of their PR-statements is based on consulting worth US$ million, and run by various US and British think-tanks.

In this case, somebody... apparently somebody from a certain island where everybody is driving on the wrong side of the road, consulted them to say, 'we're ah so very sorry', regardless of (or without a trace of clue about) what Yemeni sources in situ report.

Then the entire story was rushed to the BBC, and now plenty of parliamentaries at the House of Commons can finally sleep well (which they couldn't that much lately, because of all the criticism of British sales of arms to the KSA).

[OUTLAW 09]

Third attempt by the Houthi's firing missiles to hit USS Mason.....she dodged them with countermeasures...all missed......

[OUTLAW 09]

Third attempt by the Houthi's firing missiles to hit USS Mason.....she dodged them with countermeasures...all missed......

US admiral says multiple cruise missiles have been fired again at American warship near Yemen.
http://apne.ws/2eaMea3

NOT saying the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH AND DoD are trying to cover up anything but this initial PR sure walks, talks and smells like a cover up....

Pentagon now reviewing USS Mason incident data from today. Not clear if fired on again by Yemen rebels or a ship radar anomaly.

IF in fact a radar "anomaly" then the billions spent on defense contractors for missile defense systems WAS literally a waste of money...I have been inside a major missile defense war game in the ME where radars play a big role and inside that war game radar anomalies were accounted for and accepted as "REAL".....because one only has seconds to decide and fire or place deflection measures in place....

[OUTLAW 09]

Third attempt by the Houthi's firing missiles to hit USS Mason.....she dodged them with countermeasures...all missed......

US admiral says multiple cruise missiles have been fired again at American warship near Yemen.
http://apne.ws/2eaMea3

NOT saying the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH AND DoD are trying to cover up anything but this initial PR sure walks, talks and smells like a cover up....

Pentagon now reviewing USS Mason incident data from today. Not clear if fired on again by Yemen rebels or a ship radar anomaly.

IF in fact a radar "anomaly" then the billions spent on defense contractors for missile defense systems WAS literally a waste of money...I have been inside a major missile defense war game in the ME where radars play a big role and inside that war game radar anomalies were accounted for and accepted as "REAL".....because one only has seconds to decide and fire or place deflection measures in place....

DEFCONWarningSystem @DEFCONWS
Multiple surface-to-surface missiles fired at @USNavy ships. Missiles were fired at the other two ships in squadron
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/787449368282537984#
…

[CrowBat]

This is just getting better and better:

Yemen's Houthi rebels 'receiving Egyptian military hardware'

Houthi rebels have received a dozen advanced military boats and other supplies from Egypt, a senior Yemeni official has told The New Arab.

The official who works directly with the Houthis and their allies on Yemen's western coast alleges that the Egyptian navy delivered the hardware to the rebels in the past two months.

The anonymous official said that the boats were supplied by the Egyptian navy and to the commander of a military base in western Hodeida province#through an associate of#former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The transaction took place on an island off the coast of al-Luhayyah, in northern Hodeida province, the official told The New Arab.
...
The official claims that despite Egypt's government having close ties with Saudi Arabia, Cairo also established good relations with the Yemeni rebels after the start of the Saudi-led military intervention in the country.

Egypt is officially part of the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen, but has been severely criticised by its Gulf Arab allies for failing to commit ground troops to the operation.

More recently, Egypt broke ranks with its Gulf allies when it#voted#in favour of a Russian-drafted UN Security Council resolution on Syria strongly opposed by Riyadh.

....

Now lean back, take a deep breath, and think about this: EAF F-16s are flying air strikes over Yemen as part of the Saudi-coalition, which depends on ground troops considering of Salafists and even some Wahhabists - and are fighting Houthi/Saleh coalition equipped with Egyptian-delivered boats and other stuff.

Somebody please remind me: in what kind of 'higher national interests' is that...?