Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[CrowBat]

Don't worry, folks: the war in Yemen is going on regardless of continued negotiations in Kuwait. More about its 'Houthi/Saleh vs Hadi' part at some other opportunity.

Meanwhile, here an interesting read with rare info on Emirati 'COIN ops' in Yemen: The U.A.E. Approach to Counterinsurgency in Yemen

Most interesting excerpt:

The Gulf coalition has noted AQAP’s focus on winning over the locals through well-publicized (but not necessarily widespread) jobs, social services, and financial inducements. This is one of the many areas in which the United Arab Emirates can draw on its operational experiences in Lebanon, Somalia, Kosovo, Libya, Sinai, and Afghanistan (where a U.A.E. task force operated for over twelve years). Since the summer of 2015, the Emiratis have been preparing the ground for civil-military operations in areas liberated from AQAP, most notably in Mukalla. According to my contacts, U.A.E. special operators and civilians have been used to covertly survey gaps in stocks of food and medicine in local warehouses and hospitals. This has allowed the coalition to immediately begin meeting local needs in terms of food security, medical and teaching support, and replacements for damaged infrastructure.

In Aden, this allowed the coalition to support the reopening of numerous schools in time for the autumn 2015 term, with school furniture and uniforms sourced locally from Yemeni manufacturers to maximize the local economic impact of aid provision. Civil-military operations teams quickly got to work on installing diesel generators and maintaining water pumps and sewage facilities. In Mukalla, the coalition prepositioned humanitarian support onshore and aboard the U.A.E. naval flotilla off the coast, and new supplies are now being flown in. Food, medicines and water purification materials were surged ashore. The Emirates also followed up the liberation of Mukalla by deploying military bridges into the city. If they follow patterns set in other conflict areas, road-building will likely follow, using local contractors. U.A.E. telecommunication companies may throw up new cellphone towers as they did in Afghanistan. The Gulf states will probably support development of local schools, clinics and mosques, and may also invest more broadly in boosting the local economy as a strategic investor, as the Emirates did in Khost province in Afghanistan.
...

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat,

Thanks for the pointer to the WoTR article on UAE's COIN approach; which make very interesting reading. I note the importance of having historical "kith & kin" between southern Yemen and the UAE.

The article ends with an optimistic slant:

AQAP is used to being the smartest player around with the deepest local ties, but a partnership between the Gulf coalition, Yemen, and the United States could present Al-Qaeda and the emergent Islamic State in Yemen with a much tougher set of opponents.

So I note today in Foreign Policy's e-briefing this:

American special operators are back in Yemen, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to leave any time soon. A group of about a dozen U.S. commandos sent to the country in April are going to stick around, U.S. defense officials say, and will help troops from the United Arab Emirates hunt down fighters from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

That sounds like a priority shift for Emirati troops, who have been fighting Houthi rebels for the past year. But Yousef al-Otaiba, the U.A.E.’s ambassador in Washington, told the Washington Post that said his country’s fight against AQAP “will go on for a long period of time...the military priorities have shifted from fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis to being more focused on AQAP".

One must wonder will the UAE have learnt enough to avoid the mistakes the USA and on a smaller scale others encountered in their Yemeni dealings.

[CrowBat]

IMHO, it's the other way around: there is meanwhile nothing the Emiratis can learn from Americans in this regards any more; only Americans can learn from Emiratis.

Namely, we do not get to hear much about this topic, but Emiratis were actually fighting a low-level COIN war against their own MBs since years, and have de-facto squashed these.

Ops in question included 'regular' (at least 'a few every night') helicopter patrols along their shores, a number of which resulted in discovery and - usually - sinking of boats smuggling militants, arms, etc.

So, they 'arrived in Yemen' already 'blooded', well-experienced, and well-connected.

And ever since... well, their ties to the local population are always going to be several magnitudes better than those of any US troops deployed there.

[davidbfpo]

Last week London's Fontline Club held a meeting on the Yemen, as the war entered a second year; with Iona Craig (who still visits), a yemeni expat who works for Oxfam (one of the sharper UK charities), a regional HRW speaker and an independent UK reporter in the chair (who has reported from the Yemen):http://www.frontlineclub.com/crisis-...forgotten-war/

There is a 90 min podcast, which I expect includes the Q&A. Yet to be listened to.