Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" a recommendation for a new book 'Yemen in Crisis: Neo-Liberalism and Disintegration of the State' by a SME, Helen Lackner, and a short comment:

Lackner combines elegant writing with incisive and lucid analysis … This is an indispensable guide to understanding
Yemen’s profound and tragic problems.

Link:http://www.alsaqibookshop.com/shopexd.asp?id=46910

Link to author's bio:http://b-ys.org.uk/directory-of-expertise

Well after recent events, as the author stated yesterday President Saleh was in power for thirty-three years and without him the problems look no nearer resolution.

[davidbfpo]

London-based Yemeni watcher @ Kings College ICSR ponders what next, notably:

There are important questions about what will happen to the troops loyal to Saleh, and the considerable weaponry and resources they hold.
(Near the end) In Yemen right now- and for the foreseeable future — the only certainty is that there is no certainty.

Link:https://www.thenational.ae/world/men...ainty-1.681694

[CrowBat]

The Emiratis and the Hirak (or Southern Resistance) are pushing along the Red Sea coast from Khukha towards north, in direction of Hodeida.

While this is coming forward quite well, there's the usual problem with the lack of 'high quality' troops to secure areas that were already taken. With Emiratis up front, the Hirak seems to be given the task for securing the flanks, perhaps corsetting less reliable troops - like those of Saleh or the Islah Militia.

After nearly three years of this war, the Houthis have learned their lessons about the Emirati firepower. Thus, they're using hills and mountains on the eastern side of the coastal plain to launch counterattacks into the flank of this advance; furthermore, they've heavily mined all the roads towards north, and are constantly ambushing the advance.

The last few days, they also launched several bigger counterattacks in the area of Hays. Rumour has it, the Saleh- and Islah-forces run away from there, leaving the Hirak on their own.

While Emirati armour is harder to crack (seems, the Houthis run their and ex-YA's stocks of ATGMs quite dry), Hirak is primarily using soft-skin vehicles, and relatively few MRAPs. Unsurprisingly, there are reports about the Hirak losing 'hundreds of fighters and 70 vehicles', since 8 December.

It's going to be interesting to see if the Emiratis might stop their advance until they can clear the Houthis on their flank (or at least weaken them sufficiently to pre-empt most of further counterattacks).

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Related to all of this is the following, OSINT-based assessment about the performance of the AMX-66 LeClerc MBT in combat. It's nearly a year old and in French, but a very interesting read: Lessons from the commitment of the tanks of the Leclerc in the Yemen.

[CrowBat]

No news from the Red Sea coast, but it seems, the Emiratis are not that easy to impress. In Shabwa, they and the Hirak have crushed one of the local Houthi defence lines (killing 19 and capturing 32 in the process), and then captured al-Alia, the last southern town under the Houthi control.

Next target in that area: Beyhan.

[CrowBat]

Ah yes, and regarding the 'revelation' of Nikki Haley's prop... erm... press-conference about 'Iranian weapons for Houthis', yesterday, here the photos:
https://www.dvidshub.net/feature/iranianviolations

Summary: one spare part from Shahid Bagheri Industries (no surprise: much of Yemeni missile stock was damaged during early air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition), few tactical UAVs, and some advice. But, and that's 100% sure, no deliveries of entire weapons.

[CrowBat]

Latest news from the Red Sea coast is that another Houthi counterattack - one launched from Najiba - should've reached the area of Yakhtul. The latter is a minor port on the Red Sea. Because of this, the Houthis claim that they've cut off the supply routes of the Emirati/Hirak advance in direction of Hodeia, i.e. all the troops further north (in the Khukha area). The Hirak should've lost some 20 KIA and one of its colonels injured.

Now, I'm not entirely buying this: the Houthis are foremost excelling at propaganda. But, some of their social media was publishing photos where one can see the sea, 'far in the distance'. Thus it's possible that they're at least threatening the coastal road.

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In Beyhan, the Hirak and the YNA have captured al-Ulya and an-Naqub today - amit what appears to have been quite a 'manoeuvring' battle, which ended with most of the Houthis enveloped.

Map below shows:

- Red: Hirak
- Blue: YNA
- Green: Houthis

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Ah yes and: on 18 April 2017, the Emirati Pantsyr SAMs should've shot down a RSLF UH-60 Black Hawk, in the Marib area, killing 12 crewmembers and troops on board, including two colonels.

[CrowBat]

This might be more of evidence for at least Hezbollah involvement in Yemen, than all the Trump admin and the Saudis have provided so far: it turned out some Jordanian volunteer, named Nasser Ali Ismail Tawfiq Ayad, from Madaba Governorate, was killed on 12 December 2017.

Rumour has it, he was with Hezbollah in Yemen.

This is the first known 'foreign volunteer' KIA on the Houthi side in this war.