Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[CrowBat]

Meanwhile, in reaction to international uproar over that strike on market in Mostaba Saudis have announced a draw-down of their air strikes in Yemen. What do they mean with a 'drawdown' is unclear though, then air strikes continue: on 17 March, Saudi-led coalition bombed al-Hafa military base outside Sana'a (closest air strikes to Sana'a since 10 March), while Saudi and/or Emirati AH-64s destroyed an entire AQAP convoy underway between Aden and Zinjibar. Last night (i.e. this morning) they flew seven air strikes against targets in Sana'a area.

In Ta'iz... After shelling Ta'iz for nearly a full day yesterday (and killing at least six civilians), Houthis and YA have launched a counteroffensive there. It seems they are attempting to re-take the western side of the city.

Saudi-led coalition launched about a dozen of air strikes yesterday afternoon, and is continuing air strikes this morning. According to Saudi sources, air strikes are now largely guided by YNA FACs, but I have my doubts about this: although the YNA should now have two brigades in the city (the 22nd and an unknown one), there are still Saudi and Emirati FACs with them.

That said, no major Saudi, Emirati or 'allied' unit is involved in this battle: most of fighting is done by the YNA, local 'Popular Resistance Committees' - and the AQAP.

Ironically... there is an equivalent of some 4-5 brigades of the latter sitting in Aden and doing nothing. Reason: they are Southern Separatists that fought against Houthis when that city was besieged, and who insist to get paid for that, but refuse to continue fighting against Houthis in Ta'iz and similar places now. Instead, they are causing plenty of trouble for Hadi and his foreign allies.

Ah yes, and AQAP keeps on spreading. On 15 March they have captured Raydah in Hadramawt governorate, and clashed with YNA units near al-Anad AB.

Overall, I expect the AQAP to continue causing ever more problems. Namely, Saudis and allies are going to continue their withdrawal and hand over ever more of frontlines to the YNA: they're not only not curious to involve more of their ground forces, but now also under increasing international pressure. But, the YNA is still much too small but to bring all of 'liberated' Yemen under control...

[CrowBat]

Plenty of things happening in Yemen the last two days - all at once.

As first, Israel flew in 19 Yemeni Jews, ending immigration mission. Between others, one of Rabbis flown out took with him a 500-years old Torah scroll.

According to Israelis, with this, they have evacuated all the Jews from Yemen, bringing related airlift operations 'to conclusion'. That said, about 50 Yemeni Jews decided to stay (40 of them are living in a compound near the US embassy in Sana'a).

'Best' of all is: Yemeni social media is full of reports about this operation being run in cooperation between Israelis and Houthis, i.e. there being a secret deal. With other words, Houthis are now defamed as 'traitors' and 'Israeli agents':

..."Not only did the agents of the Zionist occupation collaborate with Israel and the United States in the covert operation to airlift Yemenite Jews to Israel, they also allowed these Jews to steal our heritage," a Yemenite activist wrote on his Twitter page, referring to the ancient Torah scroll the Rabbi brought with him.

"After Houthis ignited war in different provinces in Yemen under the slogan "Death to Israel," the truth about them is revealed," read another popular remark regarding the ostensible "Israel-Houthi collaboration."

The official Twitter account of one of the well-known Yemenite daily newspapers, Yemen Now, went even further, claiming that "Houthis stipulated their collaboration with Israel on its support for them in international forums."
...

**************

In Ta'iz area, the Houthis/YA have brought in the 11th Brigade, the last intact major unit of the YA left. This launched a counterattack on the YNA's positions at Jabal Han and Maqahwiyah, and overrun these, thus putting the city under siege again. Meanwhile, they should have captured the central prison too.

This is obviously a major setback for Hadi, who clearly failed to deploy reinforcements to Ta'iz: locals are complaining they feel 'abandoned by the government'. That said, plenty of such complaints are based on typical lack of patience: in essence, the locals expected everything would get better 'instantly' - which is impossible, of course. On the contrary, alone the situation with thousands of mines left behind by Houthis/YA is terrible: dozens of civilians were killed by these the last few days - foremost various merchants that rushed to Ta'iz in attempt to sell food to people there, but also at least two kids.

Of course, this is no good news for the Saudi-led coalition either: their heavy bombardment of the 11th Brigade as this advanced for Ta'iz appears to have been ineffective. Reasons are unknown, but possibly related to feint movement of several other YA units. Guess, without them deploying their ground troops to this area too, not much is going to change.

***************

I have to correct one of my earlier reports: namely, sometimes in late February I reported a Saudi attack on Mukhalla, a port in southern Yemen controlled by the AQAP. It turned out this was a 'mere' raid. That is: Saudi Marines landed east of this town, destroyed a major ammo depot there, and then withdrew. They also landed inside the port, destroyed several depots there (probably related to ammo), and then withdrew too.

Means: Mukhalla remains under AQAP control (i.e. their branch calling itself 'Sonst of Hadramawt').

Sorry for this: was my misunderstanding of related reports.
**Moderator has added correction pointer to Post 10**.

*****************

Talking about AQAP: the US flew a major air strike on AQAP training camp outside Mukhalla, and there are claims about dozens of KIA:

...Tribal sources in the area told AFP that a series of airstrikes hit the camp and that wounded militants were taken to a hospital in Mukalla.

Witnesses there reported seeing around nine vehicles carrying casualties from the area.

Dozens of Al-Qaeda militants were meanwhile seen rushing to the hospital to donate blood, according to residents.
...

The Pentagon claims up to '200 KIA in two air strikes'.

[CrowBat]

Finally a sane analysis of military aspects of this war - by Michael Knights from WINEP:

Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 1): The Ground War

Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 2): The Air War

Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 3): Maritime and Aerial Blockade

Disclaimer: any relations to certain posters of this forum are fully intentional.

[CrowBat]

Plenty of news from Yemen today.

Firstly, it turns out the AQAP learned what to do with that strange stick of long, green, heavy tubes they've captured from the 190th Air Defense Brigade (Yemen Air Force) at Riyan AB (outsie Mukhalla), on 25 April 2015:
Yemen conflict: Al-Qaeda ‘used surface-to-air missile’ to bring down Emirati fighter jet

...A French-made Mirage jet, flying in the air force of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), crashed into a mountain side just outside the southern port city of Aden on 14 March. Authorities claimed that the crash was “the result of a technical malfunction”, but sources dispute this, claiming that the jet was shot down with Russian munitions.
...

Two pilots flying the jet were killed in the crash and locals reported seeing Apache helicopters and the jet engaged in an attack on AQAP forces dug into a district to the west of Aden. Security sources have estimated that some 300 jihadist fighters were under attack at the time the jet came down.

A source in Yemen told The Independent that the surface-to-air missile was a Russian-manufactured SA-7 or “Strela”. The SA-7 is a shoulder held heat-seeking missile. It has a “kill zone” range of between 15 and 1,500 metres in altitude, suggesting that the Mirage was flying low in a strafing run on the AQAP positions when it was hit.
...

A second source, who has close links with the Saudi intelligence service, said that the missile which brought down the Emirati jet this month was acquired by AQAP in raids on military bases that have occurred over the past year.

“Al Qaeda has confiscated huge amounts of weapons from bases in Yemen,” he said. He cited two such bases, one at al-Aryan along the southern coast east of Aden and another at Ataq, the capital of the southern governorate of Shabwah.
...

...and I was already wondering, how would Emiratis and Saudis know it was 'technical malfunction' - just minutes after that poor Mirage crashed.

Though, if they call every MANPAD-hit on their fighter-bombers a 'technical malfunction' (which, hand on heart, is the case: things that blow up when hitting combat aircraft tend to cause multiple technical malfunctions), then now we at least know what happened to that Moroccan F-16, and that Bahraini F-16, and those Saudi and Emirati AH-64s...

Ah, I'm drifting away... This is interesting too:
Yemeni forces make key gains in Jawf

...Yemen army forces and allied tribesmen in the northern province of Jawf said on Saturday they had taken complete control of the district of Al Metoun after Iran-backed Al Houthi militants pulled out of their positions.

“Al Houthis preferred to withdraw ahead of (the) arrival of a large (number of) troops on the edges of the district,” Abdullah Al Ashraf, a spokesperson for resistance militants in the province, told Gulf News on Saturday.

Unlike other front lines where government forces are struggling to break Al Houthis’ military lines, Yemeni forces have seized large swathes of land from the militants including the province’s capital, Hazem, since late last year.
...

Al Ashraf, who also returned to his house in the same city, said: “People came back home when Al Houthis left the city without fighting.”
...

After clearing militants out of Al Metoun and recently the district of Al Masloub, Al Ashraf said that only two districts are still under Al Houthis’ control in the province.

“If we manage to (take) control (of) these districts, we would be on the border with Saada.” Saada is an Al Houthi stronghold in the northwest of the country.

Military analysts say that the government forces are pushing their advance into the remaining regions in the province as to surround the militants in Saada.

In the province of Sana’a, Yemeni forces said on Friday they had seized some mountainous areas outside the capital after fierce fighting with Al Houthis and army units loyal to ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Abdullah Al Shandagi, Sana’a resistance spokesperson, said on Friday that the government forces pushed Al Houthis out of the mountain of Sulta and a small village called Al Houl.
...

A year after the beginning of the military operation against Al Houthis, government forces are now less than 30km from the Yemeni capital.
...

Local media reports recently said that Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, the deputy chief commander of armed forces, met with the leaders of some of these tribes in the central province of Marib where they assured him their support to the advancing government forces in Sana’a province.

Hm... Houthis running away without giving a battle? That's news...

Even better news from battles against the AQAP. One of Hadi's officials is very happy to announce:

...“This morning, airstrikes targeted a stronghold of the terrorist group on the outskirts of Aden province, in Al Fyoush area," a source in Aden’s interior ministry told The National, without providing details of casualties.

“Raids also struck a crowd of terrorists in Abyan province’s Ja’ar district, close to a factory."
...

Well, Abyan was actually hit by a US UAV strike

Air raids killed 14 men suspected of belonging to al Qaeda in southern Yemen on Sunday, medics and local residents said, in one of the largest U.S.-led assaults on the group since a civil war broke out a year ago.
...

Residents in southern Yemen said an aircraft bombed buildings used by al Qaeda in the southern coastal Abyan province and destroyed a government intelligence headquarters in the provincial capital Zinjibar that the militants had captured and were using as a base. Medics said six people were killed.

Earlier on Sunday a suspected U.S. drone attack killed eight militants gathered in courtyards in the villages of al-Hudhn and Naqeel al-Hayala in Abyan, residents told Reuters by phone.
...

...while the Saudis (or their allies) then bombed Zinjibar too:

Saudi-led coalition warplanes carried out a series of raids in southern Yemen on Sunday targeting Al-Qaeda positions that killed five suspected militants, a Yemeni military official said.
...

The official, who requested anonymity, said the jihadists were killed in air strikes that targeted buildings in the city of Zinjibar, including an intelligence and special forces headquarters occupied by the militants.

Several people were also wounded and taken to a hospital in the nearby town of Jaar, the official said.

An abandoned army weapons factory in Jaar which the jihadists had taken over was also hit, the official added, but was unable to say if there were any casualties.

Other raids carried out by the Saudi-led coalition struck suspected Al-Qaeda positions in second city Aden at dawn, according to the same official.
...

Hm... interesting to hear there's still AQAP in Aden area: the last report cited something like 'all destroyed'. But then, nobody said that a massive improvement in combat effectiveness and -performance of several major Arab militaries must mean that the PR-skills of their governments experienced a similar improvement...

[davidbfpo]

Orla Guerin, BBC, has a short column, which ends with:

For most Yemenis there is no hope of escape, but more peace talks are planned for next month, to be accompanied by a ceasefire. Whatever the outcome, UN officials fear that one year of war has set the Arab world's poorest country back decades.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35901321

[CrowBat]

The Saudi-led coalition appears to have re-directed its air power and is now unleashing it against the AQAP in Yemen. Confirming my standpoint that the talking-heads in Riyad remain dilletants in regards of dealing with the media, this is almost completely ignored by the Western media, of course.

Anyway, last night it was turn on the AQAP in Mukalla again. Except for brief 'mention in disptaches' by Reuters, not a beep about this anywhere else.

Bombed are primarily the port of Mukalla, but also the main base of the former 2nd Military Region, in al-Mihdar. The compound in question used to include not only the HQ of that MR, but was also the main base of the former 190th Air Defense Brigade (overrun and disarmed by the AQAP on 25 April last year).

There are rumours that these air strikes have killed one of AQAP's top 'emirs', Qasim ar-Raymi, but there's no confirmation so far.

Surely enough, air strikes in question have caused the AQAP to call for public protests. When that didn't work, this morning they went to the local schools and kicked the kids out to the streets so these could 'protest against air strikes'.

[CrowBat]

After nearly two weeks of bitter fighting, the YNA has captured the Camp as-Safra'a, east/north-east of Sana'a.

This was a military base held by Houthis (since 2011) at a dominant position above the highway connecting al-Jawf and Ma'arib. Safra'a served as a staging point for Houthi offensive on Ma'arib, just for example: controlling it means that the YNA now has a staging point for an offensive on Sana'a or on Amran.

Mopping up of the AQAP out of Aden continues too. The YNA captured the central prison and secured all the major roads in the Mansoura district, the last three days.

[Azor]

Stratfor Situation Report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...mpaign=article

Houthi forces in Yemen who claimed to be targeting a Saudi warship struck a Saudi oil tanker in the RedSea, causing slight damage.

Why It Matters: Because attacks on oil tankers often alarm the international community, the incident could give the Saudi-led coalition a new justification for military action in Yemen.

Di-JVVSVAAAUAzO.jpg Di-IiNpUUAEPt2x.jpg

For Background:

Stratfor Assessment: Missiles Remain a Potent Houthi Weapon (https://worldview.stratfor.com/artic...mpaign=article)

• Despite continuous pressure from Saudi-led air operations, Houthi and Saleh loyalists in Yemen continue to pose a threat using ballistic missiles.
• It appears that local engineers have been able to modify ballistic missiles to increase their capabilities, and continue to have access to stockpiles to further their activities.
• There are no indications that rebels are near the indigenous production of missile systems, however. At this point Houthi and Saleh missile capabilities remain entirely dependent on existing stockpiles and foreign supply.

[AdamG]

Here we go again with the opening monologue from the ROAD WARRIOR playing over the evening news.

DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it was suspending oil shipments through the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb strait, one of the world’s most important tanker routes, after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked two ships in the waterway.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ye...-idUKKBN1KF0WN

[davidbfpo]

A short paper (19 pgs) by Elisabeth Kendall, a SME on the Yemen and who has visited parts recently. The Summary explains:

Regional conflict and internal chaos have allowed militant jihadi groups to rise and flourish in Yemen. This paper analyzes two f the most prominent such groups, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Yemen (ISY), by scrutinizing the factors that led to their respective ascents, and examining the challenges and pressures that have caused their respective declines. By comparing and contrasting their operations, respective styles of leadership, and varying levels of community integration, this paper charts the path of jihadi militancy in Yemen and assesses its future in Yemeni politics and society.

Link:https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/fi..._Kendall_7.pdf