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  1. #1
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    By all respect due for Cdr. Dolan (ret.), reading his article convinced me only that he's got no trace of clue about what's going on in Yemen.

    Anyway... 'Additional evidence' for his (and so many other, I guess) thesis on 'Iranian arms deliveries for Houthis' - and then especially those of C.802s, Zelzals etc.: Brazil’s Merchants of Death
    ...The details of Taurus’s misdeeds read like a spy novel. Brazilian prosecutors allege that Fares Mohammed Hassan Mana’a, a widely known arms smuggler and former governor in Yemen, diverted a consignment of 8,000 handguns from Djibouti across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Yemen. Mr. Mana’a is believed to have been supporting Houthi rebels in their fight against a Saudi- and United States-backed government.
    ...

    The two Taurus executives were accused of negotiating a second sale of 11,000 weapons in 2015 when Brazil’s Federal Police moved in.
    ... and since this business is so lucrative, hell, why not deliver to both sides of the same conflict?

    ...
    This is not the first time Brazilian weapons have turned up in the Yemeni conflict. Late last year, researchers discovered unexploded ordnance and cluster bombs in Yemen that are believed to have been purchased from Avibras Indústria Aeroespacial, a São José dos Campos-based company that manufactures cluster rockets and the Astros multiple-launch rocket system. More than 100 countries have banned the manufacture, stockpiling and use of these weapons because of their potential to cause indiscriminate damage to civilian populations and infrastructure. Brazil is not one of them.
    Why should Brazil do so, you ask?

    Well, because....
    ...
    Brazil routinely authorizes weapons sales to countries with poor human rights records. The country has signed major deals not only with Saudi Arabia, but also with Egypt, Libya, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Zimbabwe and dozens of countries across the Middle East and Africa since the 1980s. Brazilian companies have also ramped up sales of “nonlethal” arms such as tear gas, pepper spray and concussion and smoke grenades. Some of these have surfaced in Bahrain, Turkey and Egypt, often in the wake of bloody police-led efforts to crush pro-democracy demonstrations.

    Many of Brazil’s arms manufacturers have been heavily subsidized by the Brazilian Development Bank, or BNDES. Freedom of information requests reveal that Taurus received $16.7 million in low-interest loans between 2008 and 2015. In 2013 alone, the year Taurus reportedly sold the 8,000 handguns to Mr. Mana’a, the company benefited from $10 million in loans from BNDES. The Brazilian Cartridge Company, one of the world’s largest producers of ammunition (and majority shareholder of Taurus), received $2.9 million in loans over this same eight-year period. Brazil’s defense sector, excepting aeronautics, received $70.5 million in BNDES loans from 2008 to 2015. BNDES is now implicated in Brazil’s largest corruption scandal.

    One reason Brazilian arms exports are expanding at breakneck speed is because Brazil’s Congress passed a law to promote innovation and competition in a flagging defense sector. The legislation also grants designated companies significant tax exemptions. Brazil is now the fourth largest supplier of small arms and ammunition in the world and second in the Western Hemisphere, after only the United States.
    ...
    That all said, nobody should be particularly concerned, then rumour has it there are lots of complaints about quality control in Brazilian arms industry.

    Example? How about Brazilian hand-guns that are firing on their own?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9_YWNo1f-o

    **********

    Anyway, Yemen War is back in full swing. Word is the Houthi/Saleh coalition fired several SSMs during the night from 23 to 24 October. One might have hit the Royal Saudi Border Guards barracks in Najran; another is said to have hit some kind of (in vocabulary of Iranian PR-machinery) 'site belonging to the Saudi mercenaries' outside Jizan.

    Air strikes by Saudi-led coalition reportedly hit Nihm, Naqim and Hafa Districts of Sana'a, and a water-storage facility in Hodeida. According to China NA, Houthis say that a number of 'bunker busters' hit a military base in the al-Hafa mountains, plus Mt Noqum, while the rest of air strikes pounded ad-Daylami AB.

    The airstrikes triggered an earthquake-like shake, causing huge damage to hundreds of residential houses, public and private properties, said the residents, adding that the fighter jets continued intensely flying over Sanaa.
    Further north, Saudi-led coalition targeted some place in Baqim District of Sa'ada Governorate, reportedly killing a family of six - and further south: Ta'iz and Hajjah.

    Talking about Ta'aiz... a brief chat with few Yemenis there resulted in following impressions:

    1.) The city is meanwhile full of gunmen from at least a dozen of various gangs. Nobody really knows who's in charge and just going out to buy bread can be dangerous. At least the city is not entirely cut off from the outside world any more: a 14-hour treck over one of mountain passes due south results in people getting out - or, often loaded with food and other necessity, getting in.

    2.) Some of locals say the Houthi/Saleh is pounding the city 'as revenge' - for its revolt agianst Saleh in 2011, and for revolts against Houthis, in February-March last year.

    3.) Few factories and four (out of 39) hospitals are still operational - but all are in parts of the city controlled by Houthi/Saleh.

    4.) While disliking Houthi/Saleh, locals are at least as much belittling Hadi and Saudis: in their opinion, these did absolutely nothing to end their plight.

    Sigh... if no innocent civilians would be suffering, this would be almost fun to report about.

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    Head of pro Iran Yemeni group: distribution of Khamenei's book in Yemen changed people minds. It's as good as Quran.
    http://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/13...%D9%85#…

    Wow...Khomeini's Revolutionary Islam is catching hold.....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-25-2016 at 04:54 PM.

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    Default Bellingcat Update: Bombed Water Desalination Plant in Al-Mocha, Yemen

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...l-mocha-yemen/

    Earlier this year, we examined attacks on Yemen’s water infrastructure by several parties to the conflict. An attack in January 2016 on the water desalination plant (Wikimapia) north of Al-Mocha was central to that open source survey. Earlier this month, new reports emerged that the water desalination plant was targeted once again by alleged airstrikes by the Saudi-led Coalition. This article reviews the situation at the plant in light of those new allegations.

    Background information

    The desalination plant is located north of Al-Mocha (Arabic: المخا) on the coast of the Taʿizz Governorate, and privately owned by the Yemen Company for Desalination (Arabic: الشركة اليمنية للتحلية). The plant was seemingly targeted on January 8, 2016. While the attack was not caught on tape, the damage done the plant was visible on several photos and video posted on social media. These photos could indeed be located to the location of the desalination plant. A full open source survey of that attack can be found here.

    New allegations

    In the first week of October 2016, claims were made on Twitter [archived] that a Saudi-led Coalition airstrike had targeted the desalination plant, destroying it completely. According to a correspondent of Yemen Today TV, the plant was targeted by seven airstrikes. A few days later, photos were published on social media which allegedly showed the destruction by these airstrikes [archived]. One of the photos appears to show the storage rooms next to the water tanks on the premises of the desalination plant. The first tweet that refers to the incident appears to have been sent into the world on October 1, 2016.

    Over a month later, on November 3, the Taiz Military Council tweeted [archived] that the Coalition had struck “weapons storage” near the desalination plant. This Military Council was formed in January this year “to reinforce the efforts of resistance fighters against Houthi rebels”, according to Dubai Eye.

    The attack was also reported by Yemen Today TV, Al Masirah, and Fajattan on November 3, as well as the the Syrian Arab News Agency on November 4. Three persons were killed and another nine wounded, according to these reports. Some mentioned “martyrs” and injuries due to the airstrikes. Photos of alleged victims of the airstrikes were also posted on Facebook [archived]. Two people died and sixteen people were wounded, eight of which in critical condition, according to Sahafah Yemen.

    An Al-Montasaf news bulletin, starting at 2:54, published on November 7, also focused on the alleged airstrike on the desalination plant. It reportedly shows both the exterior of the desalination plant and the interior of one or more of the warehouses.

    Assessing the claims

    It can be established with certainty that the footage shows the Al-Mocha water desalination plant in the Taʿizz Governorate. This specific compound as well as the surrounding territory is held by Houthi forces and groups aligned to the former Yemeni government. High resolution satellite imagery from TerraServer of October 28 and October 29 confirms significant damage at the plant. The water tanks appear to be intact, while the surrounding warehouses have been destroyed.

    Unfortunately, the earliest satellite imagery available before the attack is from November 2013, and the above mentioned imagery is the most recent avaialble imagery. Thus, the visible damage could be from the January 8 alleged attack as well as the October 1 alleged attack. Given the damage seen at the warehouses, it is likely that this is imagery shows damage sustained from to the October 1 attack.

    The exterior footage shown in the news bulletin from Al-Montasaf can indeed be geolocated to the compound of the desalination plant. The footage of the interior of one or more of the warehouses on the premises could not be corroborated due to lack of pre-airstrike footage.

    Context

    Yemen has suffered a devastating war that has raged for over a year now, since Houthi rebels ousted the government from Sana’a. Since then, Saudi Arabian forces have come to the aid of this government, forming a coalition with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, and Sudan. Saudi officials have stated they aim to restore the Yemeni government, said to be an ally of the United States (US) in the fight against Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as well as the so-called Islamic State (IS). The Saudi-led Coalition started bombing Yemen since March 2015, and has come under fierce critique for lack of discrimination and proportionality in conducting their airstrikes. Houthi rebels have also been accused of war crimes.

    Conclusion

    Satellite imagery of October 28, 2016, confirms significant damage to structures on the premises of the Al-Mocha water desalination plant. It cannot be established with certainty that this damage is due to the reported airstrike(s) of January 2016, or of the reported airstrikes on October 1, 2016. The latter has been reported by opposing factions in Yemen’s war, though one claimed the warehouses were used as weapons storage instead of water-related purposes. This cannot be confirmed nor denied. Footage of another (set of) airstrike(s) on November 4 can be geolocated to the Al-Mocha desalination plant. It is not clear to what extent the water tanks have been damaged. In January this year, cracks were visible, but neither the October 1 nor the November 4 footage gives a clear view of the desalination plant.

    Unfortunately, the alleged attack on the Mocha desalinisation plant is not an isolated in Yemen’s civil war. Earlier, we published a non-exhaustive list of attacks on water infrastructure that occurred in 2015. Water plays a vital role in war-torn Yemen. A staggering 13 million citizens — around half of Yemen’s population —struggle daily to find or buy enough clean water to drink or grow food, The Guardian reported in 2015. Bellingcat will keep on monitoring the Al-Mocha water desalination plant and will update accordingly if new incidents are reported or changes can be noticed through open sources.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-01-2016 at 10:50 PM. Reason: Add quote marks

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    Default Dolan on Yemen

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    By all respect due for Cdr. Dolan (ret.), reading his article convinced me only that he's got no trace of clue about what's going on in Yemen.

    Anyway... 'Additional evidence' for his (and so many other, I guess) thesis on 'Iranian arms deliveries for Houthis' - and then especially those of C.802s, Zelzals etc.:

    ... and since this business is so lucrative, hell, why not deliver to both sides of the same conflict?


    Why should Brazil do so, you ask?

    Well, because....


    That all said, nobody should be particularly concerned, then rumour has it there are lots of complaints about quality control in Brazilian arms industry.
    Well, you would agree with Dolan that the Houthis are more than capable of prosecuting the war by themselves and of taking independent action against US warships, correct? They seem less of an Iranian catspaw than other Iranian allies or proxies, and Yemen was unstable long before Khomeini's ascension.

    Interesting to see what the "friendly" Brazilians are up to. Especially so, since any blowback from the Middle East would be difficult to counter as Brazilian police and paramilitaries have a hard enough time quelling the favelas and resisting the urge to summarily execute arrestees...

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    The Oxford Research Group has published a 24pg report on the Yemen, one author Ginny Hill has been cited before:http://remotecontrolproject.org/wp-c...MEN-REPORT.pdf

    There is a podcast too from debate (80 mins):http://richmedia.lse.ac.uk/middleeas...rTheFuture.mp3

    I have yet to read or listen to them.
    davidbfpo

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    Default GCC Paid US$1 trillion and we are stuck in the Yemeni quagmire

    An overview of the war in and for Yemen via Defence-in-Depth blog (part of Kings War Studies) that concentrates on the GCC intervention:https://defenceindepth.co/2016/12/16/the-war-in-yemen/

    A key passage:
    ....widespread critiques of the ultimate military power of the GCC states that is frequently seen as deeply lacking despite many obvious advantages. The Saudi and UAE-led intervention in Yemen, which started in 2015, offers an interesting case study that both confirms and challenges parts of such long-held assumptions.
    In the conclusion:
    Thus, while this intervention has ushered in a new era of Gulf-led interventionism, the difficulties that they have faced are stark. Many of the core goals of the campaign remain unrealised; the Saudis still cannot really control their own border, and they have struggled to translate obvious technical and materiel superiority into military power and into victory.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-16-2016 at 05:46 PM. Reason: 35,599v
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    I must be naive; perhaps I'm dumb too. But, one thing I do not understand in about 99% of articles about Yemen War is the complete lack of analysis. In essence, everybody is just repeating the same exercise, over and over again.

    Since WINEP (arguably: one of less-neutral observers around) published its 3-part analysis titled Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 1), half a year ago, nobody at least attempted anything similar.

    Why are all the other researchers and authors - no matter from where - (apparently) unable to do study the situation more closely, and explain what exactly went wrong? (For example: precisely what kind of a mistake Saudis and their allies did when starting this war?)

    Particularly striking about this is: they obviously all still have plenty of customers buying their products - i.e. advice.

  8. #8
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    Default What went wrong with analysis?

    Cited in part:
    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    I must be naive; perhaps I'm dumb too. But, one thing I do not understand in about 99% of articles about Yemen War is the complete lack of analysis. In essence, everybody is just repeating the same exercise, over and over again.

    Why are all the other researchers and authors - no matter from where - (apparently) unable to do study the situation more closely, and explain what exactly went wrong? (For example: precisely what kind of a mistake Saudis and their allies did when starting this war?)

    Particularly striking about this is: they obviously all still have plenty of customers buying their products - i.e. advice.
    When one looks at the author of the Defence-in-Depth article I posted there are clues:
    Dr David Roberts joined the Defence Studies Department in October 2013.
    Prior to moving to King’s, Dr Roberts was the Director of the Qatar office of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI Qatar).
    Link:http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/department...z/roberts.aspx

    His publications also give a clue:https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/...lications.html

    RUSI receives research funding from UAE, Qatar and BAe Systems amongst others. See:https://rusi.org/inside-rusi/rusi-funding/supporters

    Quite simply few in such UK defence policy circles would challenge the policies followed by such friends and allies. RUSI has an ethics policy, which states:
    RUSI rejects funding that is incompatible with its independence or honesty
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    RUSI receives research funding from UAE, Qatar and BAe Systems amongst others. See:https://rusi.org/inside-rusi/rusi-funding/supporters

    Quite simply few in such UK defence policy circles would challenge the policies followed by such friends and allies. RUSI has an ethics policy, which states:
    Do I understand you correctly...i.e. attempting to 'translate' what you mean: we can't expect serious analysis from sources that were probably involved in advising Saudis in regards of their actions in Yemen - and then cashed deftly for that, too...?

    ...why is this causing that sick feeling in my stomach...

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    I must be naive; perhaps I'm dumb too. But, one thing I do not understand in about 99% of articles about Yemen War is the complete lack of analysis. In essence, everybody is just repeating the same exercise, over and over again.

    Since WINEP (arguably: one of less-neutral observers around) published its 3-part analysis titled Gulf Coalition Operations in Yemen (Part 1), half a year ago, nobody at least attempted anything similar.

    Why are all the other researchers and authors - no matter from where - (apparently) unable to do study the situation more closely, and explain what exactly went wrong? (For example: precisely what kind of a mistake Saudis and their allies did when starting this war?)

    Particularly striking about this is: they obviously all still have plenty of customers buying their products - i.e. advice.
    At present, the Saudi-led coalition has lost roughly 830 soldiers and killed 2,280 civilians in Yemen. The reported Houthi fighter death tolls seem small, but it does seem that the coalition is killing more civilians than fighters, and its performance does seem more reminiscent of the Russians in Chechnya, than their Western allies...

  11. #11
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    I'm offering my apology in advance for asking the following (because usually I'm never asking for sources), but: what is the source for the number of Saudi and allied casualties, what for the number of Houthi+Saleh casualties, and what for 'coalition is killing more civilians than fighters'?

    Namely, I'm orientating on reports by Yemen Post. Sure, that's 'another one man' outlet, but it appears actually fairly neutral, even slightly 'anti-Houthi' to me.

    In regards of casualty-figures, it's orienting on Houthi-officials, i.e. how many death certificates these are issuing. The latest figure they cited (see the link above) is at about 10,700.

    (BTW, Yemen Post's earlier figures in this regards are much more precise.)

    Don't recall what was the latest figure published by the UN, but Yemen Post is usually reporting a figure about 2000-3000 higher than that of the UN.

    Thus, I'm simply surprised by the figures you're citing, Azor.

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