Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

Via Lawfare Gregory D. Johnsen, a SME; the Editor's foreword:

The war in Yemen has gone from bad to worse, leaving tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands of civilians at risk from disease and malnutrition. The war's complexity rivals its brutality, with a dizzying array of actors with discreet and shifting agendas. Gregory Johnsen of the Arabia Foundation describes the three wars Yemen is facing: the struggle against terrorism, the civil war, and the regional struggle encompassing Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran. Each has its own dynamics, and together they are shattering Yemen.

He ends with:

There is, simply put, no longer a single Yemen. There are multiple Yemens and no single individual or group capable of re-uniting them into a coherent whole. Yemen has too many groups with too many guns to ever be a unified state again. The civil war, which has taken a back seat to the regional conflict over the past three years, will eventually resume at full force. And when it does, the fighting it produces will be bloody and protracted.

Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/yemens-three-wars

[davidbfpo]

Via WoTR Gregory D. Johnsen has a short commentary on AQAP, it ends with:

Contrary to the picture painted by the numbers, AQAP is the weakest it has ever been. Decimated by drone strikes and challenged by rivals, its international terrorist side is a shadow of its former self. Only its domestic insurgency side — bolstered by Yemen’s messy war — is growing. If this side can be reduced and contained, AQAP can be defeated. But if it is allowed to remain and continue to grow, the group may be able to resurrect the international side of its organization and become a global terrorist threat once more.

Link:https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/th...ian-peninsula/

[AdamG]

Thirty-five Yemeni and international NGOs called Wednesday for an "immediate cessation of hostilities" in Yemen, where they warned 14 million people were now "on the brink of famine".

The joint appeal was signed by the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), Action Against Hunger, CARE International, Oxfam, Doctors of the World, and Yemeni organisations, according to a statement.

"With 14 million men, women and children on the brink of famine -- half the country's population -- there has never been a more urgent time to act," the statement said.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/afp/...#ixzz5WI0x4U2g

[davidbfpo]

An article from Lawfare by a SME, although the focus is Yemen there is a wider application. Daniel Byman as Editor adds:

...it has lessons for similar efforts when allies wage "limited" wars. Far from being an efficient, low-cost use of resources, Rand argues that these wars are not likely to achieve the results Washington wants, yet will implicate the United States in whatever goes wrong.

Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/extricat...red-operations

[davidbfpo]

Fascinating commentary on the Yemeni conflict and the role of the Sudan - mercenaries for the coalition - which is fraught with problems. The sub-title is a reminder of the past:

The Saudis and UAE bribed Sudan's president to send Janjaweed fighters to be cannon fodder in Yemen. It's not working out.

Link:https://www.theamericanconservative....dan-yemen-uae/

Now just why a 'conservative' website would carry this I know not.

[davidbfpo]

A refreshing, first-hand account of a visit to the front line near Hodeida by two German reporters. Here is a "taster" passage:

What is currently taking place in Yemen can hardly be described as a fight between a government and insurgents. That would require a functioning state with an army and an internationally recognized government. But none of that exists any longer. Exile President Hadi can't even fly to Aden without obtaining Saudi Arabia's permission. He's little more than a fig leaf for the proxy war Saudi Arabia and the UAE are waging on Yemeni soil against their archenemy Iran, which backs the Houthi rebels.

Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1243730.html

[davidbfpo]

Recommended by a "lurker" as an excellent reporter; Ghaith Abdul-Ahad. It is a 'long read' and is based on what is happening in Aden. He is not complimentary about the UAE's role and their local allies - who appear to be more akin to bandits.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/news/201...-of-civil-war?