Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

An unusual article and worth reading. I cannot judge the content whether it is accurate. This passage is the shortest explanation why:

Many in Yemen think that for the Houthis, this current war is about reclaiming their God-given right to rule that was taken away from the Sayyids in 1962. For many other Yemenis, the war is about fighting for the republican system that ended the Sayyid dynasty's monopoly over power.

Link:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...082107181.html

[CrowBat]

This statement is something like 1000% correct:

The Houthis do not represent all Zaydis in Yemen.

That said, the thing with 'Saleh' and 'enemy of the Houthis' is one I'm not entirely sure about.

Back during the six Sa'ada Wars (fought 2004-2010), he was threatening them a lot, and sent the military to fight them, no doubt about this.

But, the question is what units of the military did he send to fight the Houthis?

Most of these were units affiliated with Maj Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, and the Islah Party. I.e. he was playing two competing groups against each other, in turn trying to weaken every of them.

This went so far that the Saudis were forced to realize that the most of the targeting intel provided by Saleh's intel services during the Sixth Sa'ada War (2009-2010), were actually positions of Ali Mohsen's units, and especially his HQs ('good' about this was that the Saudis realized this quite early during their involvement, and thus caused next to no damage).

With other words: Saleh used that conflict to have the Saudis kill his competition.

[CrowBat]

Ah yes, I forgot to add yesterday: because of the 'constellation' described above, it was actually so that Hussein Badr ad-Din al-Houthi was executed by the CO of the 312 Brigade - one of Ali Mohsen's units.

Thus, the Houthis didn't blame Saleh for this: they blamed Saleh for not negotiating with them 'while there was still time', which was back in 2004-2006.

But, when they overrun the HQ of the 312 Brigade in the course of their advance on Sana'a, back in September 2014, they caught the CO of that unit - and shot him on the spot.

Thus, I doubt 'the Houthis executed Saleh to avenge killing of their founder' - as cited in that article. They avenged that death three years ago.

[AdamG]

OSLO (Reuters) - Norway has suspended exports of weapons and ammunition to the United Arab Emirates over concerns they could be used in the war in Yemen, the Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.

In 2016, Norwegian exports of weapons and ammunition to the UAE rose to 79 million Norwegian crowns ($9.7 million) from 41 million in 2015, Statistics Norway data showed.
Human rights groups and several members of Norway’s parliament have for months campaigned for a halt in arms exports to the UAE.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-y...KBN1ES0HG?il=0

Norwegian arms exports – little known outside the country – are booming. Although amounting to 0.1 per cent of world arms exports, Norway's weapons sales have tripled since 2000, reaching £336m worth in 2007. Norwegian arms were used by the US and Britain during the invasion of Iraq while a lack of controls in Oslo have allowed high explosives sold to the US to be re-exported to Israel for use in the occupied territories.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...vironment-arms

Wondered what they were cranking out - munitions, mostly https://www.ssb.no/en/utenriksokonom...s-rose-in-2015

[AdamG]

Riyadh (AFP) - Saudi Arabia on Friday intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Yemen into the kingdom's south, as Riyadh and its allies said the attack "proved" Iran's support for Yemen's Huthi rebels.
The Riyadh-led military coalition fighting the rebels in Yemen in a statement said Saudi air defences intercepted the missile at around 0500 GMT, but reported no casualties.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/a3f7722...t-destroy.html

[CrowBat]

Two Qaher-2Ms were fired in direction of Najran: one was intercepted, other fell in an unprotected area. These were missiles Nos. 86 and 87 fired at Saudi Arabia so far.

The army (the author means the Saudi-led coalition) is gaining the upper hand in Yemen’s civil war

TAHER ALI AL-AUQAILI, the chief of staff of Yemen’s army, has a spring in his step. After a year of stalemate, his five fronts are moving again.
...

A string of events has led to the advance. In December the Houthis killed their erstwhile ally, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been Yemen’s president from 1978 to 2012, so the Houthis now fight alone. Arrests, killings and houses demolished by tank shells in the capital have stoked resentment against the rebels. Thousands of Mr Saleh’s people have fled.

Tales of rebel atrocities have spurred on the government’s forces. Fleeing Yemeni journalists say the Houthis killed over 30 colleagues, including some who worked for Mr Saleh’s media outlets. They say the rebels extorted money from relatives wanting to recover tortured bodies for burial. The Houthis, who claimed to champion the mathlumeen, or oppressed masses, may be turning into their oppressors.
...

Mr Saleh’s death has also prompted the rancorous regional coalition assembled against the Houthis to bridge its differences. Muhammad bin Zayed, the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), had long distrusted Yemen’s army. Many of its soldiers support Islah, which has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that the UAE abhors. Prince Muhammad had hoped that Mr Saleh would switch sides and boot the Houthis from power.

But since Mr Saleh’s death Prince Muhammad has reconciled with Islah. He has given army units loyal to the Islamists air support. Government forces are on the verge of breaking out of Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, besieged by the Houthis for almost three years. They hope to recapture all of the coastal plain, where the Houthis have little support.
...

By contrast, General Auqaili complains that his pleas for heavier weapons to match the Houthis go unanswered. The morale of his men is sapped because they are nine months behind with their pay. Some get by, selling weapons or information to the Houthis or al-Qaeda. So flush are arms bazaars that prices are 20% lower than before the war began in 2014.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the stalemate, however, is that many Yemenis benefit from it. Warlords and soldiers at checkpoints cream off humanitarian aid. Cities like Marib bask in the oil wealth and duties on electricity and imports that previously enriched the capital. Once notorious as a hotspot for kidnappings on behalf of al-Qaeda, it may now be Yemen’s safest city. Banks and schools function. Wages are paid on time. An oft-cited Yemeni adage holds that one people’s misfortune is another’s gain.

Senior Houthi and his fighters surrender to army in Hodeidah

The surrender came after Ebrahim Adabu and his fighters were besieged by army troops in Hyais district, Aseel Al Sakladi, a journalist on the ground there, told The National.
...

Some of the Houthis who surrendered were children, Al Sakladi said, adding that they had been taken to the government-held city of Aden for psychological assessments.

"The rebels are [breathing] their last breath" in Hodeidah, said Al Sakladi. "They are suffering huge cracks because they lost [control of the] main roads used to get fuel and food supplies from Ibb and Taez provinces."
...

Razaz confirmed to The National on Saturday that Brig Gen Al Aqeeli had been injured in a mine explosion, saying that five other military commanders had also been injured, including the governor of Al Jouf province, Ameen Al Okaimi. None of the men were seriously injured, he said.

"The chief of staff (Brig Gen Al Aqeeli) was ferried to Saudi Arabia to be treated for his injuries, while his other comrades received necessary medical treatment in a local hospital in Marib province," said Razaz.
...

[CrowBat]

The RSAF lost a Tornado IDS over northern Yemen, on 6 January 2018.

The crew of two was recovered (Photos of the two crewmembers).

Houthis claimed the fighter-bomber as 'shot down'.

That all said, alone the fact the Houthis are now down to reporting every single SAM they fire, is speaking volumes about the condition of their frontlines...