Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[OUTLAW 09]

Thousands rally in support of Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement on war's anniversary
http://read.bi/2oqcv8J

[OUTLAW 09]

The charade continues: Houthi military unveil the 'domestically developed' Qaher-M2 missile, which in reality is an Iranian Tondar-69 SRBM.

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Report comments on a possible change of US policy and ends with:

While the civil war in Yemen is highly complex, U.S. involvement since the beginning of the conflict in March 2015 has consistently lacked an overarching objective and a coherent strategy to achieve it. Initial U.S. support to the anti-Houthi coalition under the Obama administration was neither able to shift the military dynamic of the conflict, nor minimize civilian casualties from Saudi airstrikes. Initial U.S. support likewise did nothing to stop the expansion of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Yemen. Given the static dynamics of the conflict, there is no reason to believe that renewed U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition would now achieve any of these goals. Furthermore, while the U.S. has a clear interest in combating international terror groups in Yemen, claiming a stake in the Yemeni civil war risks repeating the same mistakes the U.S. made in Syria and Iraq, where U.S. support was viewed as an attempt to underwrite the agenda of one regional sectarian power at the expense of another.

Link:http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intel...role-in-yemen/

There is a WaPo report and three comments on this:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/tru...t-in-yemen-war

For a moment stand back and ponder how the imagery of millions of starving Yemenis will play out globally.

Yes, I know Yemeni civil society is a "jungle" and Yemenis are currently fighting each other and the coalition - a task that comes first for the armed groups.

No guesses who is most likely to gain from an increased US role and who is most likely to feed the Yemeni people.

[CrowBat]

The charade continues: Houthi military unveil the 'domestically developed' Qaher-M2 missile, which in reality is an Iranian Tondar-69 SRBM.

...rather something that was already around when Gary Powers was shot down over Sverdlovsk: a Soviet-made 'SA-2 Guideline'. ;-)

[OUTLAW 09]

Ship of Interest:

Danish flag vessel Marianne Danica transits Bosphorus en route to Jeddah carrying weapons & ammo from Burgas to #Yemen

[CrowBat]

The ammo Saudis are buying in countries like Bulgaria is underway for Syria: Saudi military in Yemen needs nothing of East European origin.

[OUTLAW 09]

The ammo Saudis are buying in countries like Bulgaria is underway for Syria: Saudi military in Yemen needs nothing of East European origin.

CrowBat...just then a question ...is the given end destination incorrect?

As that would be a long haul back to Syria? Or is it the actual rat run?

[OUTLAW 09]

If you've never heard of the "Yemen-Somalia Agent Information Exchange Conference" you may want to read this
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...ar-in-somalia#

[CrowBat]

CrowBat...just then a question ...is the given end destination incorrect?

Sort of, yes.

The reporter thinks the Saudis are going to use these arms in Yemen - while they're going to forward them to insurgents in Syria.

As that would be a long haul back to Syria? Or is it the actual rat run?

The ship must not be unloaded in Saudi Arabia, i.e. bound for that country: it can stop and unload the cargo anyway underway too - so also in Turkey or in Jordan (Aqaba, for example).

And even if it unloads in Saudi Arabia: keep in mind all the 'intermediaries' involved in such deals. There are certainly at lest 2-3 of them, and they all have to cash... their relatives running transportation businesses too, etc., etc., etc.

[AdamG]

In a rare exercise of its war-making role, the House of Representatives on Monday overwhelmingly passed a resolution explicitly stating that U.S. military assistance to Saudi Arabia in its war in Yemen is not authorized under legislation passed by Congress to fight terrorism or invade Iraq.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...ization-244868

[davidbfpo]

From The Soufan Group's latest briefing:

Bottom Line Up Front
• On November 13, a Saudi-led coalition said it would end a blockade of air and sea ports controlled by the government of Yemen but leave all other ports closed.
• Had it continued, the blockade threatened millions of starving Yemenis with famine and death.
• Starvation and cholera continue to spread in Yemen, both a direct result of the U.S.-supported war.
• Yemen is a perfect storm of failed goals: Iran’s influence in the country has increased; al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is expanding; and increased air strikes continue to cause massive civilian death and suffering, while making no gains on the ground.

Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/blockade-...tion-in-yemen/


I doubt the House of Representatives vote is influenced by the humanitarian situation in the Yemen.


Saudi Arabia seems determined to make Yemenis hate them even more, each bombing adds to this.

[davidbfpo]

Helen Lackner is an independent SME writes on the current situation. This is the sub-title:

While it is worth discussing whether the missile in the November 4 attack came from Iran in the first place, the outcome is unarguable. It has dramatically worsened an already abysmal situation.

Near the end:

So the only conclusion that can be reached is that, in its proxy war against Iran, Saudi authorities have decided to accelerate the death of millions of Yemenis. Not content with having blockaded the country and helping it to achieve two horrific world records, it is now trying to ensure that Yemen achieves a third: the highest death toll from famine.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/North-...ern-headlines?

[CrowBat]

From The Soufan Group's latest briefing:
Link:http://thesoufancenter.org/blockade-...tion-in-yemen/


I doubt the House of Representatives vote is influenced by the humanitarian situation in the Yemen.


Saudi Arabia seems determined to make Yemenis hate them even more, each bombing adds to this.

You're all here also falling for the story on famine...?

Northern Yemen - the very part still controlled by Houthi/Saleh coalition - is the most fertile part of the Arabian Peninsula, and renowned for exporting food (including Coffee; term Mocha comes from the port on the Red Sea coast of Yemen) of since thousands of years. There might have been a reason old Romans called this area the 'Felix Arabica' (Happy Arabia)... or that the RAND's study of the Six Sa'ada Wars (fought between Saleh's government and the Houthis, in period 2004-2010) cited extensive exports of wheat, fruits and cattle to Saudi Arabia...

But now, and all of a sudden, there should be no food..?

Or there is, but the problem is of different nature - like explained here, for example: Yemen: Finding near-famine - and lots of food...

...or here: Yemen and the Business of War

Pay attention:

...
Several businessmen questioned for this article estimate that the cost of paying ‘tax’ at checkpoints and revenue posts established by Yemen’s rival governments increases the cost of goods by about 10-15 per cent. Wealthier Yemenis are able to absorb the costs, and clearly there is still some money left in the country: as The Economist has reported, while a cholera epidemic rages in the midst of one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, the Sana’a branch of Baskin-Robbins remains plentifully stocked with ice cream transported to the capital in refrigerated lorries.
The fact that goods still crisscross the country is broadly good news. But there is a darker side to Yemen’s war economy. A businessman, who asks not to be named, says he can get ‘pretty much anything’ from Jebel Ali port in Dubai to Sana’a within 48 hours, 72 if there is fighting along the way. Other goods are being shipped in to ports in Oman, which sits between the United Arab Emirates and Yemen, and from southern and western Yemeni ports, and receive even less scrutiny, as long as the right palms are greased.
...
There is a bigger problem though: despite the humanitarian crisis, the current set-up seems to suit most parties, to the extent that they would appear to be quietly cooperating with one another. Fuel imported to Mukalla is transported knowingly to Sana’a. Guns provided to anti-Houthi-Saleh fighters on the ground are sold to the other side.

In Mareb Province, the main highway is cut by a front line, as you might expect in a war zone. But on another, less well maintained road to the south, lorries drive through pro and anti-Houthi checkpoints a mountain pass apart. The war economy has evolved into a system that, for those with guns, is sustainable as long as the status quo is maintained.
...
‘The Houthis will survive and the Yemenis will starve,’ the Yemeni analyst says ruefully.