Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[CrowBat]

The Saudi-led coalition appears to have re-directed its air power and is now unleashing it against the AQAP in Yemen. Confirming my standpoint that the talking-heads in Riyad remain dilletants in regards of dealing with the media, this is almost completely ignored by the Western media, of course.

Anyway, last night it was turn on the AQAP in Mukalla again. Except for brief 'mention in disptaches' by Reuters, not a beep about this anywhere else.

Bombed are primarily the port of Mukalla, but also the main base of the former 2nd Military Region, in al-Mihdar. The compound in question used to include not only the HQ of that MR, but was also the main base of the former 190th Air Defense Brigade (overrun and disarmed by the AQAP on 25 April last year).

There are rumours that these air strikes have killed one of AQAP's top 'emirs', Qasim ar-Raymi, but there's no confirmation so far.

Surely enough, air strikes in question have caused the AQAP to call for public protests. When that didn't work, this morning they went to the local schools and kicked the kids out to the streets so these could 'protest against air strikes'.

[CrowBat]

After nearly two weeks of bitter fighting, the YNA has captured the Camp as-Safra'a, east/north-east of Sana'a.

This was a military base held by Houthis (since 2011) at a dominant position above the highway connecting al-Jawf and Ma'arib. Safra'a served as a staging point for Houthi offensive on Ma'arib, just for example: controlling it means that the YNA now has a staging point for an offensive on Sana'a or on Amran.

Mopping up of the AQAP out of Aden continues too. The YNA captured the central prison and secured all the major roads in the Mansoura district, the last three days.

[CrowBat]

Surprisingly enough, latest example of misguided Western attempts at 'informing the public' about what's up in Yemen was delivered by (usually reliable) France 24, few days ago.

Namely, after some search around, it turned out this is a near word-by-word translation of a report by al-Maseera TV, which is a Houthi-run TV channel.

What actually happened is that the YNA (Hadi-loyal 'new' Yemen National Army, recruited, trained, and paid for by Saudis and Emiratis) concluded its offensive in Midi area by kicking Houthis out of the south-eastern part of that town, and then re-opening the road connecting that town with Hardadh.

Contrary to Houthi reports about ambush and collossal 'government' losses, the Houthis - again - just run away. Local medical sources report exactly two YNA's WIA being delivered to the Samtah Hospital (facility taking care about all of YNA's casualties in that area) during this battle.

On 1 April, the YNA launched a pursuit of withdrawing opponents in direction of A'abs and Haradh.

[davidbfpo]

A VICE investigation into the historical UK-US-Yemeni cooperation to combat terrorism; a mix of human sources, SOF, technical surveillance and drone strikes:https://news.vice.com/article/britai...-investigation

[CrowBat]

Four days ago, on 14 April 2016, Saudis and Houthis agreed a sort of a cease-fire, and this is holding.... well, in most of the country.

Reasons are nicely summarized here What the Yemen ceasefire means for the Gulf, the anti-ISIS campaign, and U.S. security

The fourth attempt in a year at a durable ceasefire and a political process in Yemen should get strong support from President Barack Obama when he visits Saudi Arabia later this month. The war has been a humanitarian catastrophe and a boon to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). It's in our interest to end it.

The latest attempt at a ceasefire was arranged by direct negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels meeting in Riyadh with U.N. support. Political negotiations are scheduled to begin in Kuwait on April 18. If the truce fails, the Saudis are threatening their coalition will mount a major offensive to take Sanaa from the rebels.

A battle for Sanaa would make a bad situation even worse. The U.N. has said that 21 million Yemenis need immediate relief, of which seven million are "severely food insecure." The situation is particularly acute in Taiz where the Houthis have been besieging the city for months, as well as in Sa'ada (the Houthis’ home city in the north), which has been bombed repeatedly by the Royal Saudi Air Force.
...

The biggest beneficiary of the war has been AQAP, which now controls some six hundred kilometers of the southern coastline—from just outside Aden to Mukalla, the fifth largest city in Yemen and the capital of Hadramaut province. When AQAP seized the Mukalla at the start of the war, they looted $100 million from its banks. They are now earning at least $2 million and perhaps as much as $5 million a day in smuggling oil. The group is stronger today than ever before.

The Saudi coalition largely left AQAP alone until recently. The Royal Saudi Air Force has now mounted a few missions against it but they remain firmly in control of much of the south. AQAP regularly attacks coalition forces in Aden.
...

Emiratis instantly began pushing for a new offensive - though this time against the AQAP, and Washington seems to like this idea.

...The U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the UAE was preparing for a campaign against AQAP, but declined to offer details, citing operational security. The UAE is playing a key role in the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen that are loosely allied with Iran.

The White House and the Pentagon declined to comment. Government officials in the UAE did not respond to request for comment.
...

Michael Knights, an expert on Yemen's conflict at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he and a colleague estimated the UAE's presence in Yemen peaked at about 5,500 troops in July-October of last year and now is as low as 2,500 personnel.

Knights said the UAE played a critical role in efforts by the Saudi-led alliance to push back the Houthis, employing a mix of capabilities, including mechanized infantry columns, that proved decisive.

"The UAE has been the real central player in the ground war," he said.

In contrast, Saudi-led air strikes drew sharp condemnation from the United Nation's top human rights official last month, who said the coalition may be responsible for "international crimes."

In a nod to its capabilities, some U.S. military officials have nicknamed UAE "Little Sparta" after the ancient city-state known for its fighting prowess. Analysts note that the small Gulf state has also played an outsized role in other conflicts, from Libya to Afghanistan.

Frederic Wehry, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a U.S. Air Force veteran, said the UAE's ability to combat AQAP would rest partly on its ability to navigate Yemen's complex web of tribal allegiances.

UAE forces currently are concentrated mostly around the southern port of Aden where the embattled Yemeni government has found safe haven. But since retaking the city in mid-2015, they and local forces have struggled to impose order, opening the way for al Qaeda and Islamic State militants to operate there.

AQAP is estimated to now control 600 km (373 miles) of Yemeni coastline and the southeastern port city of Mukalla, home to 500,000 people.

The fight against AQAP is of greater importance to the United States than the battle against the Houthis, which until now has been a higher priority for America's Gulf allies. The Gulf states see the fight against the Houthis through the lens of a regional rivalry with Shi'ite Iran.

One particular U.S. concern is Qassim al-Raymi, who last year succeeded Nasser al-Wuhayshi as AQAP's military commander after a U.S. drone strike killed Wuhayshi.

One U.S official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said al-Raymi "appears to us to have intent as well as operatives with capability to be able to do external plots."

The United States thinks there are dozens of AQAP operatives deemed to be "true threats" capable of mounting external attacks, the official added.

Washington also has long sought Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, considered the most formidable extremist bomb designer. He is accused of a creating hard-to-detect bombs, including one used in a failed bombing of a U.S.-bound airliner in 2009.
...

Otherwise, the Saudis and Emiratis keep on pounding the AQAP down the southern Yemeni coast: on 14 April, it was turn on Koud, in Abyan province, where 10 Jihadists were killed.

Two days later, and following extensive negotiations, Houthis conceded return of Yemeni government to capital

...Houthi militants have agreed to allow Yemen’s legitimate government back to operate in the Yemeni capital Sana’a.

They have also agreed to hand over heavy arms to the state, Al Houthi spokesman Mohammad Abdul Salam told Kuwait’s daily Al Rai on Friday.

The comments come ahead of Monday’s talks in Kuwait that bring Yemen’s rival parties back to the negotiating table.

Abdul Salam said the militant group would also allow Yemen’s current vice president Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, and influential oil and telecom tycoon, Hamad Al Ahmar, back into Sana’a.

The promised concessions by Al Houthis herald a major shift in their policy, analysts say
...

“Our demand is consensual authority for a scheduled transitional period,” Abdul Salam said.

The transitional authority would decide on thorny issues like the number of regions for a new proposed federal state, disarmament of militant groups and secessionist demands in the south and grievances of Saada residents in the north.

In the interview, Abdul Salam denied widely held suspicions that the group was a pawn of Iran.

“We are not tools in the hands of anyone,” he said.
...

...which means something like: the entire Yemen War - lasting more than a year - was actually 'all for nothing'.

But at least Emiratis have got their opportunity to go kicking AQAP's backsides around Lahj Province

Yemeni forces backed by Apache helicopters from a Saudi-led coalition wrested the city of Houta from al Qaeda fighters after a gun battle on Friday morning, a local military official said.
...

The recapture of Houta, regional capital of southern Lahj province which has been held by the militants since last summer, is one of the embattled Yemeni government's most important inroads yet against al Qaeda forces who have taken advantage of more than a year of war to seize territory.

Government troops began their attack at daybreak and succeeded after several hours of air strikes and heavy combat, the military official told Reuters.

"The campaign to control Houta has been completed and it has been cleansed of al Qaeda and extremist elements," he said. Several people were killed and injured on both sides and 48 militants were captured, he added.
...

[CrowBat]

Following a relatively quick build-up, Emiratis have launched an amphibious landing in Mukalla - and this time it's serious (and confirmed by locals).

Hadramawt Tribes Confederation is involved in this operation too (it's strictly anti-AQAP meanwhile - and not to be confused with the Hadhrami Domestic Council, which is in alliance with the AQAP in Mukalla).

So, in total: Emiratis are entering the port from the south, HTC (i.e. now HC, because they reformed themselves as the 'Hadramawt Confederation') from north, west and east.

More news as they stream in.

[CrowBat]

Emirati and YNA's offensive on Zinjibar is successful too: their troops are meanwhile inside the town, and holding most of governmental buildings. Major General Ahmad Sayef Al Yafae, commander of the Aden-based 4th Military Region, told Gulf News that as many as 35 Al Qaida fighters were killed and 60 others were injured in the first hours of the fighting and his forces had regained control of the city of Kawd and many other small scattered regions in the province.

Notable is that the YNA is supported by few of ex-YAF Mi-8/17s too (see the photo below). This comes as a confirmation for Emirati-supported effort to build-up a new air force (initially reported as equipped with those Emirati-assembled IOMAX light strikers).