Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

At a recent conference @ Oxford University, hosted by Pembroke College, entitled 'The Lure of Jihad: Propaganda & the Construction of Jihadist Identities' amidst the presentations was one talk that fits here: Keeping the Lure Alive: The evolution of AQAP's Propaganda Strategy & What we can Learn from it' by Dr Elisabeth Kendall. Her research has taken to the eastern provinces, most recently in November 2015.

1. Due to the Saudi-led blockade AQAP is making US$2m per day taxing imports, especially of fuel;
2. There is no appetite in the eastern provinces for the Caliphate;
3. Polling using locally recruited staff to conduct interviews found that 21% state an Iman's role is to advise on all matters; 10% want a 'single, strong leader' definitely not a distant man;
4. Each family can have up to twenty children and child mortality is high and death is accepted. Alongside having more guns than books in each home - makes them a hardened audience and it is hard to terrorise people like that;
5. The ability of AQAP to get local "buy in" depends on local, tribal factors and it is clear there is mutual toleration of each other as business is pursued;
6. When shown an IS 2015 video, showing a local Yemeni IS group, it was widely ridiculed and caused bewilderment;
7. AQAP have adapted their approach, it is now more nuanced, but there is a contradiction between business and war. No longer are the punishments and stoning seen in 2011-2012 used. They now aim to get popular support by proving they can govern and so help the people. Then they radicalise;
8. AQAP does not portray graphic violence against non-Muslims;
9. It is almost a "Robin Hood" method, fighting for justice and righting wrongs. The jihad today is a continuation of the fight against the British (who left in 1967) and AQAP have used stills of British soldiers being buried in Aden in that conflict;
10. AQAP's tweets (I do wonder how many locals use Twitter) when examined are by issue: 57% development, 18% law, 13% celebrations & parties and 3% Sharia;
11. There has been considerable population movement to the eastern provinces, notably Al-Mukalla, from the north following the damage caused by the war.

Dr Kendall has written widely, her last article readily found was in WaPo in May 2016:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...a-be-defeated/

[davidbfpo]

In June 2016 Professor Clive Jones, Durham University, gave a seminar paper which combines history, the wider aspects of drones and contemporary events in the Yemen; the full title being 'Drones as Air Proscription? The case of South Arabia and Yemen in comparative perspective'.

There is a summary and a podcast (90 minutes) of the seminar, plus the Q&A:http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/...scription.aspx

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this article on the UAE or U.A.E. or Emirates and the expansion of it's military power:http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/wes...arab-emirates/

There are several articles in this thread on the UAE's role in this war, so it fits here!

I had not spotted:

But Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had an on-hand replacement: neighboring Eritrea, Djibouti’s regional rival, which boasts rudimentary ports on the Red Sea just 150 kilometers further north. On April 29, the very day that Djibouti evicted Gulf troops, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki met with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdel Aziz and concluded a security and military partnership agreement with the Gulf states offering basing rights in Eritrea.

Other sections of this article have been added to the Eritrea thread.

[davidbfpo]

Peter Oborne, a UK journalist, has been to Houthi & others controlled Yemen, with two short film clips - with the caveat Houthi minders were with them. He denounces the UK stance on supporting the Saudi role, principally aerial bombing of civilian targets.
Link:http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns...orne-855615638

[OUTLAW 09]

Sanaa: No women or children were killed by KSA airstrikes in #Sanaa yesterday. All footage shows killed #Houthi-militias or #Saleh-soldiers.

Even the US seems to have not thoroughly checked the open source video footages in the public domain before they openly take KSA to task publicly.....

Social media was already saying there were no children and or women being seen in the videos....

Sanaa: War criminal #Saleh calling on his militias to attack #Saudi_Arabia. Airstrikes hit his fighters yesterday.

Yemen Saleh: All of our sons & fighters must head immediately to take revenge by escalating armed attacks in the borders with #Saudi

[OUTLAW 09]

Sanaa: No women or children were killed by KSA airstrikes in #Sanaa yesterday. All footage shows killed #Houthi-militias or #Saleh-soldiers.

Even the US seems to have not thoroughly checked the open source video footages in the public domain before they openly take KSA to task publicly.....

Social media was already saying there were no children and or women being seen in the videos....

Sanaa: War criminal #Saleh calling on his militias to attack #Saudi_Arabia. Airstrikes hit his fighters yesterday.

Yemen Saleh: All of our sons & fighters must head immediately to take revenge by escalating armed attacks in the borders with #Saudi

NOTICE...several days after this so called horrific air strike which the Iranians, Saleh, and Yemeni's Shia are complain in about AND after the massive verbal push back of the US against KSA.....NOTICE still not a single photo of a killed woman and or child....ALL military aged men were the targets...

Sanaa: List of high-ranking pro-#Houthi and pro-#Saleh forces, killed or injured by airstrikes on #Sanaa on October 8th, 2016.

IF one is to analyze this strike carefully it appears to have the markings of a "surgical strike" against high ranking Houthi and Saleh forces......

IF one looks at the list of killed and or wounded....the initial list BTW.....18 Generals and 6 COLs are on it.....appears to me to have been a very well thought out "surgical strike"...catching just about the entire senior leadership of the Houthi and Saleh forces....

THEN the KSA has learned from the Russians in Syria....."it ain't us".....

CORE question would be WHY is the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH so upset with KSA for trying to end the Shia coup attempt .....

[OUTLAW 09]

ACTUALLY is one takes the time to analyze the strike and the US did not and it succumbed to media pressure when they reacted...REMEMBER the Obama WH in it's 20,000 word interview comments ......would like nothing more than to ditch the KSA....

BUT in a similar situation WHERE the US jumped the gun and did admit that they had bombed so called Assad forces....AND where they offered to pay compensation to the families NOT A SINGLE name has been submitted by the Assad/Putin regime.

REMEMBER Obama and Kerry jumped the gun in order to not "offend the Russians" who they thought were negotiating in good faith...which they were not......

[CrowBat]

IF one is to analyze this strike carefully it appears to have the markings of a "surgical strike" against high ranking Houthi and Saleh forces......

It was nothing else than exactly that: a surgical strike on a big group of top ranking officers and officials of the Ansar Allah and Saleh-loyal elements of the military.

The number of those confirmed KIA is meanwhile at 62 military personnl - all of them high or at least mid-ranking officers, including 29 generals. Below an updated list.

55 bodies remain unidentified.

With other words (and while I 'insist' on not attempting to 'defend' Saudis for what they've done elsewhere in Yemen) comparing this attack with anything that's going on in Syria is either hysterical BS, or Assadist/Putler/IRGC nonsense.