Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat,

Thanks for the pointer to the WoTR article on UAE's COIN approach; which make very interesting reading. I note the importance of having historical "kith & kin" between southern Yemen and the UAE.

The article ends with an optimistic slant:

AQAP is used to being the smartest player around with the deepest local ties, but a partnership between the Gulf coalition, Yemen, and the United States could present Al-Qaeda and the emergent Islamic State in Yemen with a much tougher set of opponents.

So I note today in Foreign Policy's e-briefing this:

American special operators are back in Yemen, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to leave any time soon. A group of about a dozen U.S. commandos sent to the country in April are going to stick around, U.S. defense officials say, and will help troops from the United Arab Emirates hunt down fighters from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

That sounds like a priority shift for Emirati troops, who have been fighting Houthi rebels for the past year. But Yousef al-Otaiba, the U.A.E.’s ambassador in Washington, told the Washington Post that said his country’s fight against AQAP “will go on for a long period of time...the military priorities have shifted from fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis to being more focused on AQAP".

One must wonder will the UAE have learnt enough to avoid the mistakes the USA and on a smaller scale others encountered in their Yemeni dealings.

[CrowBat]

IMHO, it's the other way around: there is meanwhile nothing the Emiratis can learn from Americans in this regards any more; only Americans can learn from Emiratis.

Namely, we do not get to hear much about this topic, but Emiratis were actually fighting a low-level COIN war against their own MBs since years, and have de-facto squashed these.

Ops in question included 'regular' (at least 'a few every night') helicopter patrols along their shores, a number of which resulted in discovery and - usually - sinking of boats smuggling militants, arms, etc.

So, they 'arrived in Yemen' already 'blooded', well-experienced, and well-connected.

And ever since... well, their ties to the local population are always going to be several magnitudes better than those of any US troops deployed there.

[davidbfpo]

Last week London's Fontline Club held a meeting on the Yemen, as the war entered a second year; with Iona Craig (who still visits), a yemeni expat who works for Oxfam (one of the sharper UK charities), a regional HRW speaker and an independent UK reporter in the chair (who has reported from the Yemen):http://www.frontlineclub.com/crisis-...forgotten-war/

There is a 90 min podcast, which I expect includes the Q&A. Yet to be listened to.