From my POV, this is a complete madness - but then perfectly in line with all the idiotic foreign policy decisions of the POTUS and the Pentagon in recent years.Originally Posted by Dishonesty
In essence, they're behaving like small kids, playing with (billion-dollar) toys - and the situation can easily escalate.
Namely, the US military MUST KNOW what's going on in Yemen. It had its troops present there until March last year, and its intel services are following the situation ever since. If they don't know exactly who-is-who there, they should all get fired at the spot (and court-martialled too).
They know the Houthi/Saleh alliance very much has a strong central military authority. They know this alliance has its own Minister of Defence, its own commanders of Military Regions. Most of brigade-commanders that sided with Houthis/Ansar Allah are still in command (as far as not KIA meanwhile, of course). They (the US intel) knows the Houthi/Saleh alliance took over 60% of the Yemen Army, nearly 95% of the Yemen Air Force, 100% of the Special Forces Command, 100% of the Missile Forces Command, 100% of the Presidential Protection Force, about 70% of the Yemen Navy as these were as of March 2015. They know these have taken over the command and control of all of these too. Considering they are successfully resisting the onslaught of the Saudi-led military alliance since 18 months means that they (Houthi/Saleh alliance) have a (very much!) functioning chain of command.
Furthermore, they must know that the Houthi ideology is including a strong anti-US, anti-Israel, and anti-Saudi stance. Saleh's ideology is similar: back in 1990, he was supportive of Iraq, and very much anti-US. This didn't change that much until he was removed in 2011. Lately, he has repeatedly requested help from his old ally - Moscow. So, no surprise if - in essence - they all (Houthi/Saleh) see themselves at war with some sort of US-supported, 'Saudi-Zionist' invasion (just citing their own statements). This means that from their POV, the USA was 'always involved in aggression on Yemen' (i.e. on the side of the Saudi-led alliance bombing 'Hothis'), regardless if directly or indirectly. And, hand at heart, this is correct too - although the USA have so far never fired at 'Hothis' as such.
This means that on strategic plan, attacks on USN warships are nothing that could be assigned to some sort of 'weak central military authority' or 'regional commanders seeking martial prowess'. However, the US intel and military MUST know too, that these attacks can take place only within a limited zone along the western coast of Yemen (the part of that coast in the Red Sea): they are anything but 'endangering international shipping in the Bad al-Mandeb Strait'.
Another aspect is rather 'tactical' by nature: coast-based surface-search radars used by the Houthi/Saleh alliance are not the best available. And even if, they have no means of positively identifying what are they trying to attack with anti-ship missiles. In essence: they are targeting 'radar blips' on their displays, whatever these are.
If the blip on the other side turns out to be a USN warship... well, it's not the Houthi/Saleh to blame.
And versa-vice: the USN very much knows what is on the other side. Thanks to far superior means of intelligence gathering and insight into who-is-who on the other side, it has far superior situational awareness. It knows what the Saudi-led alliance is actually doing in Saudi Arabia, too. And it is still sending its ships into the harm's way.
Bottom line: a 'blip' enters the range of surface search radars operated by Houthi/Saleh coalition; their local commanders are authorised to open fire; they fire. That's all.
So, why then send USN warships there and steer in the literal 'hornet's next'? What's the purpose of such an action?
...except with the purpose of a provocation?
This is idiotic foreign policy 1st class, nothing else, and the only idiot responsible for it is Oblabla: he has ordered USN warships into the combat zone, and it is him who is as stupid as to oversee that what he has ordered could easily turn into another Tonking Gulf Incident.
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