Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

Even Popular Mechanics weighs in, on the plane(s) that fell down and ends with:

It’s war in the age of the Internet, and the truth takes some time to untangle

Link:http://www.popularmechanics.com/mili...n-f15-tornado/

[CrowBat]

From first-hand, even if unofficial sources:

- The Tornado suffered an explosion of the oxygen system; this caused a fire inside the cockpit, leaving the crew little alternative but to eject.

They were picked up in a CSAR op run by No. 99 Squadron RSAF (flying AS.532 Cougars), supported by 8 F-15S' and 3 AH-64s.

- The F-15SA (yes: the brand-new variant) suffered minor damage to the fins.

[CrowBat]

Scratch another (at least fifth in total) TEL for ballistic missiles operated by the Houthi-controlled Missile Force (see the photo below).

Now, while most of Yemenis say 'TEL for Burkan'. I say: 'TEL for Qaher-2s'.

...can't go into more details about 'how comes', but observe: word is that a combo of TPQ-37 Firefinder and CH-4 Wing Loong is 'simply deadly'.

(Arguably, some would deny it's the TPQ-37, at least because of its - relatively - short range; the same say 'actually its Chinese copy, the SLC-2'... but, if so, then the same might want to provide some proof of related deliveries to Saudi Arabia: so far, only the sale of TPQ-37 was definitely confirmed...)

[CrowBat]

Yemen fires third ballistic missile on Saudi military target within 60 hours

Yemen’s rocket unit has fired a short range ballistic missile today’s morning. The short range ballistic missile successfully hit Saudi air defense system in Jizan, according to military sources.

The military source confirmed for “YP” that the missile was successful hit its target. The source point out that this is the third missile launched within past 50 hours.
...

Earlier, Yemen’s air defense said in a statement a short range ballistic also fired on Wednesday evening hit Al-khadra crowsing border with “Qahir-M2” which completely destroyed the base.
...

....i.e. a third Qaher-2M within 50-60 hours.

First two were claimed as shot down. No reports about the third one (so far).

**************

Ah yes... and that moment when CNN stands in front of a real Burkan-2H (don't worry: it's wreckage only), and can't provide evidence this is actually Iranian: https://twitter.com/CNNConnect/statu...09893126467584

....and thus goes off topic.

[CrowBat]

Just 'some statistics'...

While updating the manuscript for the book 'Hot Skies over Yemen, Volume 2', I counted all the data on SSM-firings collected so far.

Along what I was able to find, I've got a total of 110 recorded SSM firings (of which 88 at Saudi Arabia). Of these:

- 22 were reported as 'Scud' or even 'Hwasong' (i.e. Hwasong-6);

- 11 as OTR-21 (i.e. Tochka, or SS-21)

- 8 were reported as 'Burkan' or 'Burkan-1' or 'Zelzal-2' (there's a problem here in so far, that it turned out 'Zelzal-2' is actually a surface-launched R-24; how anybody thinks any of these should've reached Najran is beyond my imagination)

- 4 were reported as 'Burkan-2H' (two of these failed upon launch)

Rest were Qaher-1, Qaher-2, and Qaher-2Ms, and about a dozen of unknowns (i.e. V-755 missiles from the SA-2 Guideline SAM-system).

How many were intercepted is harder to gauge: I've recorded a total of 37 claims for 'confirmed interception'. Visual confirmation (in form of videos and/or photos) is available for about a dozen. Further 4-5 are known to have hit something, i.e. were 100% not intercepted.

Obviously, this is far from 'all', then there are reports that the Ma'rib area alone was targeted by up to 60 missiles; the Bab al-Mandeb area by another 40 so far (and that most of these were intercepted). Problem is, however, that it's only since November 2017 that the Houthis are actually reporting really every single missile they've fired.

That said, my data on missile strikes on Saudi Arabia is quite complete.

[CrowBat]

The Emirati-led attack along the Red Sea coast was meanwhile resumed. Since they've breached the densely-mined area, sometimes about 15th this month, they are steam-rolling the Houthis and allies: at least two towns and 30 different villages were taken yesterday alone. This in addition to two towns taken in the last week.

In Ta'iz, the Houthis (since they killed Saleh, all of the combatants fighting on their side can be considered as 'the Houthis') lost an entire neighbourhood yesterday. They are launching a counteroffensive today, but the situation is not looking good for them.

Foremost: in Sa'ada, the YNA is meanwhile only 4 kilometres outside the centre of Kitaf.

With other words - and as expected - all the undated videos and claims lately published by the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran seems to be a big pile of PRBS.

[CrowBat]

Simply funny to monitor the PRBS-battle around this war.

While some people are still falling for Houthi nonsense of this kind - Yemen’s Houthis control 100 miles of Saudi Arabia’s territory (if that would be truth, there would be no end of corresponding reports by the Houthis) - and while the IRGC's PR-machinery is still declaring S-24s for 'ballistic missiles', others do better, even though things are still quite PR-coloured: Legitimate Army Advances in Saada, Considers Taiz a Priority.

Namely, the Houthis have meanwhile been kicked completely out of Ta'iz.

The issue is now to kick them outside the artillery range to that city. Thus, while the Houthi PR-machinery is claiming BS of the kind US-Saudi air strikes are killing civilians in Ta'iz, the Saudi-led coalition does not need bombing the city. On the contrary, it's actually the Houthi artillery that's shelling the city and causing dozens of civilian casualties, every single day, and already since more than one year...

...in similar fashion, while all the possible media has forwarded reports like Houthi capture strategic Marcusa mount in Nata district, Bayda - everybody is ignoring the fact they've lost it to a YNA counterattack before being able to shot more than 2-3 photos.

Proof? Hard to get in English; and, certainly enough, Houthi-fans are not going to report it. But, other Yemenis do so, though in Arabic only:
https://mobile.twitter.com/amerAlham...02866917380096
https://mobile.twitter.com/amerAlham...96627135123456
https://mobile.twitter.com/amerAlham...01175497121793