Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

At a recent conference @ Oxford University, hosted by Pembroke College, entitled 'The Lure of Jihad: Propaganda & the Construction of Jihadist Identities' amidst the presentations was one talk that fits here: Keeping the Lure Alive: The evolution of AQAP's Propaganda Strategy & What we can Learn from it' by Dr Elisabeth Kendall. Her research has taken to the eastern provinces, most recently in November 2015.

1. Due to the Saudi-led blockade AQAP is making US$2m per day taxing imports, especially of fuel;
2. There is no appetite in the eastern provinces for the Caliphate;
3. Polling using locally recruited staff to conduct interviews found that 21% state an Iman's role is to advise on all matters; 10% want a 'single, strong leader' definitely not a distant man;
4. Each family can have up to twenty children and child mortality is high and death is accepted. Alongside having more guns than books in each home - makes them a hardened audience and it is hard to terrorise people like that;
5. The ability of AQAP to get local "buy in" depends on local, tribal factors and it is clear there is mutual toleration of each other as business is pursued;
6. When shown an IS 2015 video, showing a local Yemeni IS group, it was widely ridiculed and caused bewilderment;
7. AQAP have adapted their approach, it is now more nuanced, but there is a contradiction between business and war. No longer are the punishments and stoning seen in 2011-2012 used. They now aim to get popular support by proving they can govern and so help the people. Then they radicalise;
8. AQAP does not portray graphic violence against non-Muslims;
9. It is almost a "Robin Hood" method, fighting for justice and righting wrongs. The jihad today is a continuation of the fight against the British (who left in 1967) and AQAP have used stills of British soldiers being buried in Aden in that conflict;
10. AQAP's tweets (I do wonder how many locals use Twitter) when examined are by issue: 57% development, 18% law, 13% celebrations & parties and 3% Sharia;
11. There has been considerable population movement to the eastern provinces, notably Al-Mukalla, from the north following the damage caused by the war.

Dr Kendall has written widely, her last article readily found was in WaPo in May 2016:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...a-be-defeated/