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Thread: Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

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  1. #1
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    BTW, the amphibious assault on Mukhalla was actually led by RSN's SEALs, followed by Saudi Marines. But, these are not mentioned by anybody with even a single word.

    If any foreign forces are cited, then 'Emiratis only'.

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    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Twitter reports from Mukhalla area are indicating that the AQAP not only suffered severe losses there, but de-facto collapsed and run away.

    Locals are reporting that the 'Army' (guess they mean the YNA) has entered Buwaish - the next town east of Mukhalla, this morning.

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    One correction in regards of my post with the map attached (see above), in regards of the situation in Hajjah province (NW Yemen, on Saudi border and the coast of the Red Sea): the YNA didn't drive all the way from Harad to Abs after all.

    Namely, after capturing the upper part of Harad, the YNA stopped its advance on Abs and tried to outflank the Houth/YA positions in lower Harad by advancing down the coast. The YNA captured most of the farms in this area, and secured all the hills, in turn securing the road from Midi to Hara too.

    But, now comes the best part: while mopping up the area west of Harad, YNA discovered a big system of tunnels. Reportedly, this is extending for nearly 30km and connecting the area around Harad with the Saudi border.

    Now, no doubt: this sounds fantastic. But, keep in mind: Houthis are controlling this area since at least five years, without interruption. Plus, existence of such tunnels would in turn explain the ability of the Houthi/YA/Saleh forces to 'suddenly appear behind' Saudi outposts on the border, back in autumn last year (mind all the 'spectacular' videos of knocked out M1s, M2/3s etc.).

    The capture of this tunnel system is also an explanation for why this offensive was launched (and the last-before-last cease-fire breached) and why the Houthis/YA are not launching any forays into Saudi Arabia, this year. Indeed, these tunnels might be an explanation why Houthis asked for negotiations almost immediately after the YNA secured the area (and tunnels).

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    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Further - and quick - advance of the YNA and coalition today: locals report that they've liberated the town of ash-Shahar, 60km east from Mukhalla 'up' the coast.

    The AQAP just run away.

    If this is truth, it could be one of new records in history of mechanized warfare..

  5. #5
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    In their drive east of Mukhalla, Saudis, Emiratis and YNA have seized Riyan AB and the nearby base of the 23rd Brigade YA (de-funct, i.e. overrun, disarmed and disbanded by the AQAP) yesterday.

    Further east, the AQAP VBIED an army convoy that was in the process of entering Zinjibar - yup, the place so eagerly besieged by Jihadists back in 2011, and lately produly held by them again, but recaptured by Emiratis, Saudis and YNA on Saturday (23 April). Then they quickly reached Azzan too, as the AQAP fled.

    So much for professional military operations.

    Allmighty superiors of the Saudi-led coalition in Riyad though, continued their PR-campaign in a particularly dilettantic fashion. Between others, Asiri claimed 800 AQAP killed in Mukhala area so far.

    Of course, he's got all the MSM (even those of its outlets bought by Saudis) - but also various think-tanks etc. jumping all over him now: how dare Asiri becoming so desperate to issue such claims in attempt to improve the negative image of the Saudi-led coalition?

    The 'pearl' of the day was delivered by this Houthi journo (rather surprising to see Houthis have left any journalist within their reach free to roam the world, actually): he said that Saudis are bad when they attack the AQAP.

    After all, the areas that were liberated by the Saudi-led coalition the last few days are now 100% certainly going to be handed over to the Daesh (i.e. IS's Wilayat Hadramawt), while AQAP was lately so humanitarian, it 'shun vioence' and this offensive is 'pushing it back to brutality'...

    Bottom line, if:

    - Saudis & allies don't fight AQAP = 'bad Saudis, supporting and cooperating with the AQAP'

    - Saudis & allies fight AQAP = 'bad Saudis, fighting AQAP that became ah so peaceful'...

    Simply amazing how fast is everybody learning from Sputnik, RT and Putler... just Saudis not.
    Last edited by CrowBat; 04-26-2016 at 05:35 AM.

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    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    With AQAP on the run in south-eastern Yemen, it seems its leaders are easier to track too - and that's resulting in a notable up-tick of US UCAV strikes.

    This one should've scored 'big points': U.S. drone strike kills local Qaeda leader in South Yemen
    A suspected U.S. drone strike killed a local leader in Al Qaeda and five of his aides in southern Yemen on Tuesday, residents said, as Yemeni and Emirati troops pressed their offensive against the militant group.

    Abu Sameh al-Zinjibari and other men died when a missile struck their moving car in Amoudiya, a village near the Qaeda-controlled towns of Jaar and Zinjibar.
    ...
    That said: Zinjibar is not 'AQAP-controlled' since at least two days.

  7. #7
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    A 'quick and dirty' review of (important) news from Yemen, of the last few days:

    Another 'turn-over' in this war might be in the making: Are Saudis prepared to drop Hadi to make peace in Yemen?
    ...Although the current talks in Kuwait began over two weeks ago, there has been little progress. They had started with a wobble: the Houthi/Saleh delegation arrived three days late in protest at the fact the ceasefire nominally in place was not being respected by the other side. From the outset of the negotiations, they had always wanted a complete ceasefire, not a mere "cessation of hostilities". Once their delegates arrived in Kuwait, they spent the first two days arguing precisely this point.

    Kuwait’s foreign affairs minister, who was desperate to secure a home-soil diplomatic coup for his country, immediately travelled to Riyadh for talks with the Saudis and, in the days since, despite reports of coalition jets patrolling Yemeni airspace, there have been relatively few air strikes since; a positive outcome already.

    For many, this apparent shift in Saudi policy shows the urgency of reaching a settlement on their part. However, whilst there are mounting indications Riyadh desperately wants out of this conflict, several foreign diplomats I’ve spoken to insist that the Saudis are not willing to seek an exit at any cost; many are still expecting, or hoping for, some sort of victory.

    Despite that initial three-day delay in Kuwait, direct talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia had been under way for weeks, already a major breakthrough. So far, these discussions have produced several confidence-building measures, including prisoner exchanges, and a ceasefire at the border. They have also delivered a cessation of hostilities – both of Houthi cross-border attacks and coalition bombings in North Yemen – that has held since.

    “Riyadh is where the talks are really happening,” a senior diplomat told me. What about President Hadi and his government? I asked. “At some point, they will have to accept that they have to go,” he replied. I was reminded of recent reports from Yemen suggesting many of Hadi’s ministers have been busy selling their properties and assets in the country. I wanted to tell him they had seemingly come to terms with their fate, and are merely buying time now.
    ...
    But if the Houthis and the Saudis cut a deal, I asked the diplomat, what would happen to the forces on the ground fighting for Hadi, such as the militias in Taiz and Aden? “I think we have known for a while now that they aren’t under Hadi’s control, and they most certainly are not fighting for him,” he responded.

    This was something I had considered, and written about, before but had always refused to believe. To hear it stated so bluntly by a senior diplomat was shocking. The notion that the dozens of armed militias currently operating across the country were under nobody’s control was too frightening to contemplate, and confirms fears that even if a peace deal is struck Yemen might not see peace for years, possibly decades to come.
    ...
    Al-Qaida withdrawing from 2 cities east of Yemen's Aden port
    ...Al-Qaida militants in Yemen are pulling out of two coastal cities east of the key southern port of Aden following tribal-led negotiations, security officials and witnesses said on Thursday.

    The pullout from Zinjibar and Jaar is which is expected to take less than a week, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to reporters while the witnesses did so out of safety concerns.
    ...

    Meanwhile, Aden's civilian airport reopened on Thursday after months of closure due to security concerns, said Tarek Abdu Ali, the chief of the airport. The first passenger plane, coming from Jordan, landed around midday, he said.

    ...
    The FNA reports several 'Saudi' air strikes on targets in Sana'a area, the last two days:
    ...The Saudi Air Force has launched several air raids over the capital city of Sana'a in the last two days, causing damage in a number of residential areas, several sources said on Thursday.

    "In addition to bombing Sana'a, the Saudi Air Force also targeted the Ansarullah-controlled Anad Camp and a number of districts in Ma'rib province, killing a number of civilians and fighters," the sources added.
    ...
    The Yemen Post reported five air strikes already on 3 May, and clashes in four different regions - including Hajjah and Ta'iz. Especially the latter should be heavily shelled by Houthis and YA.

    Finally, UAE-trained Yemenis land on Socotra island
    A contingent of Yemeni soldiers that has been trained in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has landed on Socotra (Suqutra) island in the Arabian Sea, Yemeni media channels reported on 2 May.

    The reports were supported by photographs showing soldiers at a location that could be identified as Soctra Airport. They were wearing a type of tricolour desert uniform that has been used by the UAE armed forces in the past. A Boeing C-17 Globemaster III - a heavy transport aircraft used by the UAE's air force - could be seen in the background.
    ...
    With other words: the cease-fire in Yemen is about to collapse.

    *************

    Earlier reports cited arrival of a 'US Special Forces team' in Mukalla, and meanwhile the Yemen Post is reporting arrival of no less but '100 (US Army) Rangers in southern Yemen.

    Also, the US military is getting more-intensively involved against the AQAP in general:
    ... The U.S. military is helping Yemeni, Emirati and Arab Coalition forces that are battling al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, and were recently able to retake the port city of Mukalla from AQAP control.

    A senior U.S. official said that American special operations forces are advising the Yemeni and Emirati forces in the region, and that they are working at the headquarters level and are not near the conflict. The official was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly so spoke on condition of anonymity.

    Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. is providing "limited support" to the Arab Coalition and Yemeni operations in and around Mukalla. He said that includes planning, airborne surveillance, intelligence gathering, medical support, refueling and maritime interdiction.

    Davis declined to discuss whether or not special operations forces were in the country. But he said the U.S. has sent a number of ships to the region including the USS Boxer amphibious ready group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is embarked with the group. The USS Gravely and USS Gonzalez, both Navy destroyers, are also in the area.

    "Trained and supported by an Arab Coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Yemeni government forces and resistance fighters have retaken Mukalla and continue their offensive against AQAP in eastern Yemen," said Davis. "AQAP remains a significant security threat to the United States and to our regional partners and we welcome this effort to specifically remove AQAP from Mukalla and to degrade, disrupt and destroy AQAP in Yemen."
    ...

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